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Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Vancouver Canucks:
1. Best foot forward. Vancouver is really up against it right now. Their slow start has put them way behind the 8-ball in the playoff race and there is talk about big changes coming as a result. Everyone is piling on right now – understandably so – and I think the Canucks are going to do their best to respond. They showed life against Calgary last time out but came up empty handed. I’m expecting another big push from them in this one. If the Flames can hold up early, they might well get the Canucks to fold. But they’ll have to be ready to weather the storm.
2. Showing a pulse. The lotto line of J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson, and Brock Boeser has not played well this season. Far from it. But they were dangerous last time out. Shots were 8-2 VAN with that trio on the ice and they controlled a whopping 96% of the expected goals. 96%! They were rewarded for their efforts with a goal, which could give them confidence that they’re finally turning a corner.
3. Continue to feast. Andrew Mangiapane is on another level right now. Seemingly every night the Flames are destroying their opponents with him on the ice. Things were no different in G1 of this four-game series. Mangiapane led the Flames with five 5v5 chances, all of which were high-danger, and his underlyings were strong across the board. Vancouver does control the matchups but they’re very shallow so there is nothing they can really do here. Mangiapane is going to see a lot of their bottom-6 once again and, if what we’ve seen so far is any indication, he is going to feast.
4. Time for change. The Matthew Tkachuk - Elias Lindholm - Dillon Dube line is not working. It’s just not. I get that they’ve largely played tough minutes but they’re not exactly handling it well. As a trio, they’re controlling just 40% of the Expected Goals on the year. They do have a positive goal differential together, however, a lot of that stems from luck. Opposing goaltenders are stopping only ~87% of Calgary’s shots with them on the ice, while Calgary’s goaltenders are stopping nearly 97%. Both numbers are going to regress sooner than later, and it’s going to be ugly if they can’t start getting a larger share of the chances. This line was caved in G1 vs Vancouver (I’m talking ~25 xGF%). If they don’t right the ship in this one, it might just be time to pull the plug and shake things up.
5. Right the ship. David Rittich has not played overly well this season. Very small sample size, of course, but his save percentage is currently -3.67% below expected, per MoneyPuck.com. Jacob Markstrom was brought in to be the ace, but the plan, no doubt, was to trot out one of the best goaltending duos in the league. Rittich needs to find his game and get on track so Markstrom can get a little more rest. Starting 11 of 13 is a bit much.
Update: Jacob Markstrom will start for the 12th time in 14 games.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
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