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Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Ottawa Senators:

1. Back to old reliable. With Calgary struggling to get on track, Geoff Ward elected to reunite the 3M line prior to Saturday’s game. Suffice to say, it paid off. Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund, and Andrew Mangiapane put on a clinic. They generated 20 attempts, and a pair of goals, at 5v5 while threatening seemingly every time they touched the ice. Backlund and Mangiapane also worked their magic on the penalty kill, scoring the dagger goal to make it 5-1. They combined for 10 scoring chances and seven of the team’s 11 high-danger opportunities across all gamestates. They were flat-out dominant. With Ottawa’s attention going to the Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm line, they were free to work against the middle of the Senators’ lineup. Clearly, they proved to be too much. I expect similar matchups again in this one so it’ll be interesting to see if 3M can make them pay once again.

2. Start on time. Calgary really needs to get out on the front foot in this one. Not only will it put them in a good spot to build on one of their best games of the season, but it’ll make life a lot easier in a 4-in-6 situation. Coming from behind against set defenses is difficult, especially against a team like Ottawa. Believe it or not, they are tied with Dallas for 5th in xGA/60 while leading. They’ve been good at limiting chances, and I have a hard time believing a fatigued Calgary team would be able to pile up quality looks against them. The Flames really need an early lead to avoid that situation.

3. High-event hockey. We saw nine goals in the previous matchup. I have a feeling we could see quite a few again. Ottawa ranks 4th in attempts/60 and 22nd in attempts against/60 over the last 10 games. Calgary, meanwhile, ranks 10th in attempts/60 and 25th in attempts against/60 over that same period. Both teams are generating plenty of shots and giving them up at the other end. That’s usually a recipe for fireworks.

4. Activating the defense. Calgary’s leader in 5v5 points over the last 10 games: Rasmus Andersson. 2nd place? Mark Giordano. Oh, and Juuso Valimaki is tied with Matthew Tkachuk and Sean Monahan for 6th in that time. Generating consistent offense has been an issue for the Flames this season and getting the defense more involved seems to be part of the solution. Expect to see Calgary’s defense to activate early and often in order to create extra levels of offense.

5. The danger zone. I’ve talked a lot about the Tkachuk brothers and their ability to generate high-danger looks around the net. I’m going to do so again because it’s absurd the volume they generate in the most difficult spots to create. Brady ranks 2nd in the NHL with 24 HD looks over the last 10 games. Matthew sits right behind him with 23. Calgary is 27th in HD chances against/60 over the L10 while Ottawa is 26th on the year so they’re not exactly doing a great job of defending the areas the Tkachuks excel in. Don’t be surprised if they make a lot of noise in this one.

numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com

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