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The Calgary Flames will be looking to extend their winning streak to three games tonight when they take on the Minnesota Wild.
The Wild got off to a horrible start but finally appear to be heading in the right direction as they're getting healthier and have gone 6-3-1 over the last 10 games.
Still, their underlying numbers suggest they haven't fully hit their stride and are still not as good as the team we've seen in recent years.
Even during this hot streak, if you'll call it that, the Wild have controlled just 46% of the shot attempts and ~48% of the scoring chances so it's not as if they're dominating territorially and running teams into the ground.
Without the underrated Jared Spurgeon, their defense is pretty shallow and I think that's a big reason the Wild have still been outplayed (for the most part) during this win.
This is a winnable game and one the Flames need if they want to be holding onto a playoff spot at the end of the night.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Michael Ferland
Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Michael Frolik
Sam Bennett - Mark Jankowski - Garnet Hathaway
Curtis Lazar - Matt Stajan - Troy Brouwer
Mark Giordano - Dougie Hamilton
T.J. Brodie - Travis Hamonic
Brett Kulak - Michael Stone
Mike Smith
Minnesota (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Jason Zucker - Mikko Koivu - Charlie Coyle
Nino Niederreiter - Eric Staal - Mikael Granlund
Tyler Ennis - Joel Eriksson Ek - Chris Stewart
Marcus Foligno - Matt Cullen - Zack Mitchell
Ryan Suter - Mathew Dumba
Jonas Brodin - Ryan Murphy
Mike Reilly - Nate Prosser
Devan Dubnyk
What to watch:
1) The Bennett - Jankowski - Hathaway has been shockingly good since being put together. In a little more than 36 minutes of 5v5 ice, they're controlling almost 60% of the shot attempts, own an expected goals for of 67.5%, and have a plus-4 penalty differential. They've been playing very well and could have a good night against a Minnesota bottom-6 with some holes.
2) I point this out often and will continue to until something changes: the Brodie - Hamonic pairing is horrible on the road. Absolutely terrible. In 14 road games together, they've been on for three Calgary goals at 5v5 and have posted an expected goals for of 38.39%, which is very bad. I think either of Minnesota's top two lines could give them trouble.
3) The Staal, Granlund, Niederreiter line, in particular, will be a handful for the Flames to contain as they rank 1st, 3rd, and 4th on the Wild in chances/60.
4) The Flames have a +6 penalty differential at 5v5 while the Wild have a -23 differential, a 29 penalty swing. If the Flames can get a couple extra power play opportunities tonight, they should have a pretty good chance to come out on top.
5) Smith really struggled in November, and early December, but he's stopped 50 of 53 over his last couple starts. Perhaps he is turning a corner again – the Flames need him to.
Puck drop is just after 8:00 eastern and can be seen on SNW and FS-N+.
Recent posts:
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Flames smart to replace Brouwer with Ferland on the power play
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