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I was away at a wedding this past weekend, which is why I wasn’t able to get any content up for you guys. Should be back to normal scheduling now!
A few notes to get you set for Calgary vs Ottawa:
1. Do or die. Calgary’s playoff chances are hanging on by a thread. They’re not out of it...but they’re very close. They can’t afford to drop any points, really, so doing so against the last placed Ottawa Senators would certainly put the final nail in the coffin. The Flames have played much better of late, winning three of four and ranking 8th in Expected Goals For% over the last 10 games. They need to play with the same sort of urgency, and structure, in this one because Ottawa – despite what their record suggests – is not a pushover. They tend to hang around in games longer than they often deserve, which always leaves the door open for them to steal points. Calgary can’t let that happen.
2. Keep it tight. The Flames are playing Darryl Sutter hockey now. They’re doing a good job of holding structure, protecting the net, and sucking life from opposing offenses. They rank 5th in high-danger chances against/60, and 4th in expected goals against/60, over the last 10 games at 5v5. They’re really not giving up much, which is a recipe for success now that Jacob Markstrom is back on top of his game (he has allowed two or less in four straight; all of which came against playoff teams). Ottawa is a strong finishing team – they rank 8th in shooting percentage this season – so keeping them at a distance is imperative.
3. A good power play spot. The bad news: Calgary isn’t scoring much at 5v5. The good news: they might not need to in order to beat Ottawa. The Senators are struggling mightily on the penalty kill right now. They rank dead last in chances against, and 30th in xGA, over the last 10 games. The Flames should be able to do some damage on the man advantage, which would take a lot of pressure off their 5v5 offense (and Markstrom).
4. The wheels are coming off. Noah Hanifin, for the most part, has been a pleasant surprise this season. He has cut out a lot of the head scratching miscues and provided strong two-way play as one of the most utilized players on the team. His play is trending downwards, though. He ranks last among Flames defenders in xGF% over the last 10 games and has been on for more goals against than *checks notes* every player on the team in that span. Not playing as much with Chris Tanev almost certainly plays a part in that but, whatever the case may be, the Flames need him at his best if they’re going to have any chance of making things interesting down the stretch.
5. Score first. The Flames, as you’d expect, are absolutely fantastic at shutting teams down once they get a leg up. They’ve allowed just 1.41 xGA per 60 while leading over the last 10, which is best in the league. That stems from their ability to prevent anything dangerous from seeing Jacob Markstrom. The Flames have given up just 5.2 Grade A looks per 60 while leading at 5v5 in that time. Minnesota (6.65) and Washington (6.86) are the only other teams allowing fewer than 7.0 Grade A looks per 60. If the Flames can get out in front early, they have a great shot at claiming a much-needed two points.
numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
Calgary Flames Blogger • 
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