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G6 Calgary Flames @ Montreal Canadiens: Five things to watch |
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Follow me on Twitter @ToddCordell
Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Montreal Canadiens:
1. High-danger hockey. Tonight’s game features two of the very best chance generators in the league. At 5v5, Brendan Gallagher ranks 1st in Grade A chances per 60 since the beginning of the 2018-19 campaign. Matthew Tkachuk sits 27th – ahead of guys like Connor McDavid, Gabriel Landeskog and Mark Stone – over that same time span. These guys live around the net and aren’t afraid to pay the price to get a good look. They’re also pests that like to get under the skin of opponents. Don’t be surprised if they’re in the middle of anything and everything in this game.
2. 5v5 beasts. The Canadiens are getting a ton of hype right now for the way they’ve started the season. Understandably so. They have picked up at least a point in all six games while controlling 55.49% of the expected goals at 5v5. While the Flames’ record (2-2-1) is much more pedestrian, they’ve been similarly dominant at full-strength. Their xG share is 54.81%, putting them just one spot below Montreal. The Flames aren’t getting as much attention but don’t be surprised if they hang with the Habs.
3. Rebound control. Carey Price and Jacob Markstrom have both done a good job at controlling the shots they’ve faced in the early going. Their rebound percentages are sitting below 4%, which is quite good. There may not be many 2nd and 3rd chance opportunities so these teams must get to the net with purpose and be ready to pounce on the few that do come about.
Update: David Rittich will get the nod in goal tonight. He gave up a rebound on a respectable 4.33% of shots last season so what I said still applies; there probably won't be much loose change in this one.
4. A pleasant surprise. I was not a fan of the Chris Tanev signing and I’ve been hard on Noah Hanifin – I think justifiably so – at times over the last couple years. As such, my expectations for them as a duo were quite low. To their credit they’ve been nothing short of spectacular. They own a 61.26 CF% and 71.76 xGF% (!!!) at 5v5, which ranks them 1st among 86 eligible defense pairings (40+ minutes together). Those numbers are unsustainably high, of course, but if they can continue to help the Flames dictate play, they’re going to be a very tough team to beat.
5. Finish plays off. Generating chances has not been a problem for the Flames. They rank 3rd in 5v5 chances per 60, and 5th in expected goals per 60. They’re getting looks. Unfortunately, converting them is a different story. They rank 25th in goals/60 despite the abundance of chances they’ve created. The good news is they’re not going to continue shooting 6%; especially generating such quality. The breakout game is coming sooner than later if they continue to generate as they have.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and MoneyPuck.com
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