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Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Montreal Canadiens:
1. A breakout game. The Matthew Tkachuk - Elias Lindholm - Josh Leivo line may not have scored last time out but it certainly wasn’t for a lack of opportunities. They spent a good chunk of time against Montreal’s matchup line, and pairing, at 5v5 and absolutely teed off. Attempts were 16-3 Calgary with Tkachuk on the ice vs Shea Weber and the Flames controlled an absurd 96% of the Expected Goals during that time. It’ll obviously be difficult to replicate those kinds of numbers – against anybody, no less Weber and co. – but it’s an encouraging sign that Calgary should be able to create their share of chances even in best-on-best scenarios.
2. Starting hot. Calgary held a players only meeting after their third consecutive loss. Their underlying process as a whole has been strong this season, however, it’s often hard to overcome no-showing for a period at a time. They no doubt addressed that, and slow starts in general, in said meeting. I would expect the Flames to come out with their best foot forward in this one. They’ll be looking to get up early and overwhelm the Canadiens before they can find their footing.
3. Attacking on the PK. We’re still dealing with small sample sizes, of course, but both sides have shown a tendency to try and turn defense into offense while shorthanded. The Canadiens lead the league in short handed opportunities – and goals! – and sit 3rd in expected goals/60 while down a man. The Flames, meanwhile, sit 2nd in xGF/60 on the penalty kill; behind only Vegas. Look for both sides to be aggressive up high and try to turn a sloppy pass, or turnover, into a scoring opportunity.
4. Stealing the show. The Canadiens’ offense has been remarkably potent in the early going. They sit 3rd in 5v5 goals, and the two teams ahead of the Canadiens have played more games. It’s really hard to slow them down because of the balance in the lineup; if the top line isn’t going, they still have plenty of guys that can threaten. It seems like strong goaltending is going to be a prerequisite to win against Montreal this season. Jacob Markstrom, while strong in moments, hasn’t been ‘excellent’ to date. This would be a good game to change that.
5. The middle man. Matthew Tkachuk leads the Flames in shot attempts, shots, scoring chances, expected goals, penalties drawn, and altercations started. He is legitimately in the middle of everything for the Flames. I think Tkachuk has largely played very well but – like the Flames as a whole – hasn’t necessarily gotten the results deserved. I’d bet on that changing sooner than later.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
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