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With next to nothing happening in the hockey world, I've decided to take the plunge and write daily profiles for members of the New Jersey Devils.
I'll be commenting on the year each player just had as well as their projected role and expectations for 2019-20. I've written 12 thus far,
with Taylor Hall being the most recent player profiled.
Today we're taking a closer look at Kyle Palmieri.
Counting stats: 74 games played, 50 points (27 goals, 23 assists), 18:09 average time on ice
5v5 underlyings: 1.66 points/60, +1.18 CF% Rel, +13.47 GF% Rel, +6.56 xGF% Rel, 1.015 PDO
2018-19 review: All things considered, Palmieri had a really strong season. His production – ~55 point pace over 82 games – was in line with that of previous years as a member of the Devils despite a) playing every game in 2019 without Taylor Hall on his opposite wing and; b) the power play, where Palmieri generally does a lot of damage, taking a big step back.
Palmieri scoring 5v5 goals at the most efficient rate of his career is a big reason he managed to avoid a dip. He averaged .95 goals per 60 minutes, which is comfortably a 1st line rate. His closest comparables (1,000+ minutes) were Logan Couture, Brock Boeser, Matthew Tkachuk, and Nino Niederreiter. Not bad!
While his overall efficiency in terms of 5v5 point production was nothing to write home about (due to a lack of assists), he consistently put the puck in the net and that's what he is paid to do.
Palmieri also drew more penalties than he took for the fourth consecutive season. That's impressive when you consider he plays a physical brand of hockey and laid more hits/60 than all but Miles Wood and Blake Coleman.
Fun fact(s): Palmieri is highly regarded for his goal scoring ability – rightfully so – but he was also fantastic defensively last season. Among 21 Devils to log 400+ minutes at 5v5, Palmieri ranked 1st in on-ice expected goals against per 60 (2.05). For perspective, the Boston Bruins allowed 2.04 xGA/60 and the St. Louis Blues allowed 2.07 xGA/60. The Devils were *that* good defensively with Palmieri on the ice.
2019-20 outlook: On a per game basis, Palmieri hovers around 26-30 goals and 53-58 points every single year. His point production might be the NHL equivalent to Khris Davis batting .247 four seasons running. Just as Davis is showing us this season, there's bound to be an exception eventually and I think this will be the year we see it from Palmieri (although in a positive respect).
He's going to spend almost every second with either Nico Hischier or Jack Hughes centering him, and 2017-18 Hart Trophy winner Taylor Hall or dynamic playmaker Nikita Gusev playing on the other wing. There's more than enough high-end talent to put together two very strong power play units as well. Regardless of which line or PP unit John Hynes elects to use Palmieri on, he's going to have excellent players around him. This is easily the best supporting cast he'll ever have to work with and I think his production is going to reflect that. If Palmieri stays healthy, he should surpass the 60 point plateau for the first time of his career.
numbers via naturalstattrick.com and hockey-reference.com
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