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Bo Horvat Sets the Market — Four Possible Trade Targets for Brad Treliving |
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With a surprising 5-2 win over the Seattle Kraken, the Flames get to enjoy their nine-day break on a positive note. Three wins in their last four games.
As for the solitary loss among those seven days — a 5-1 stinker to the 31st overall Blackhawks — well we can get into the Flames’ issues later. Instead, let’s talk about the trade market being set by the Islanders on Monday and look at four options on the trade market for the Flames.
To the New York Islanders
C Bo Horvat (25% salary retained)
To the Vancouver Canucks
C/W Aatu Räty
2023 conditional first-round pick
Top 12 protected in 2023. Unprotected in 2024.
LW Anthony Beauvillier
The Return
2023 first-round pick
The highest value asset going to the Canucks in the trade. The Isles would be picking #14 if the season concluded today (provided that the lottery didn’t move them up or down). Luckily for the Islanders, they have Bo Horvat to help them fight their way back into the playoff picture. They’re only two and three points out of the second and first wildcard spots respectively.
This draft will be a deep one. Calgary’s pick would be #16 if the draft happened today. The two team’s first-round picks are indeed very comparable in value.
An NHL winger
It’s hard to believe that Anthony Beauvillier is only 25 years old. The 5’11” middle-six winger is playing his seventh season in the League after graduating directly into the NHL out of Shawinigan of the QMJHL in 2015. His 20 points in 49 games have him on pace for his standard 35-ish point season and his 50% CF% ranks him 5th among forwards.
Beauvillier’s $4,150,000 cap hit goes through next season. While the Islanders had room to acquire Horvat’s $4,125,000 cap hit without sending out a contract, the space made by shipping Beauvillier will help in making room for an extension.
Aatu Räty
The 6’2”, 187lbs forward slid out of top 10 consideration at the 2021 NHL draft due to a multitude of issues.
By his admission, the young man burnt himself out during off-season training before his draft season. This led to a poor camp, which led to a poor spot in the lineup, which led to a dispute over ice time, which led to rumours of a bad attitude. Räty finished the season with three goals and three assists in 35 games for Kärpat of the Finnish Liiga.
Speculation that Aatu excused his performance with the classic interview response of “sometimes I work too hard” went away in the next season. 40 points in 41 games after finding his way to a new team, Jukurit.
He’s on a solid trajectory toward being an NHL regular. 15 points in 27 games through his first AHL season. Two goals in seven games with the Islanders at the age of 20.
In other words, Aatu Räty would be considered a blue chip prospect.
Bo Horvat
Horvat is easily on pace for the best offensive season of his career. His previous high was 61 points over 82 games in 2018-19. This year he has 54 points in 49 games. He had four assists in his final game with the Canucks en route to a 5-2 win over Columbus.
This season he’s going for offensive production in order to get paid more, but the pivot does his best work matching up against the other team’s best forwards. The London, Ontario native has finished above 52.2% on faceoffs every season for the last six years. While his 21.7% shooting percentage is expected to regress to a 12-15% average beyond this year, Horvat will likely be worth his contract extension value to a contending team.
Who Won?
That depends on the Canucks developing their prospects properly. This trade may look bad if Horvat re-signs and finds sustained success with the Islanders, but that first-round pick could be 13-16 in a notably strong draft. No clear winner for the time being.
The Calgary Flames
Exactly what Calgary may need is a challenging concept.
They really just need the team to relax a bit and play to their potential a bit more. Maybe that tension eases a bit with more finishing talent on the team.
It made sense last year. A greater ability to execute early-game goals led to a more confident two-way game across the board. Your team is up by two or three in the first, your players can go on the ice with a clear role defined. The opposition will make more mistakes as they start to take risks that may open up room to skate with the puck.
Often at the other end of the ice were Erik Gudbranson and Nikita Zadorov waiting for their opportunity to bully whatever forwards got the puck past the offensive blueline. That helped too.
With that said, the Flames could use a winger or defenseman with a defined niche. Today we’ll look at options for the former.
Finding a forward
The salary cap plays a major role in any potential add. Calgary has $4,056,234 in space with Duehr, Pelletier and Gilbert sent down to the AHL during the break. The Flames will have around two million when they come back up and will have around five million to play with at the trade deadline on March 3.
Of greater concern is the 7.4 million added to Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar’s salaries next season. There will be almost zero wiggle room under the cap, even if Milan Lucic is replaced by a player earning less than one million.
We have some precedent on market value. We’ve identified that the Flames could use more scoring or a niche depth player. Let’s look at a few players rumoured to be available.
Timo Meier LW/RW
Meier is likely the best fit and also the most expensive. Making his six-million-dollar cap hit fit this season would be no issue, but an extension would require a major trimming of roster players.
A left-shooting winger who can play either side, Meier has fallen below a point-per-game pace in his last five outings, but still has 48 in 51 despite having a rotation of replacement-level wingers on his line. Right now it’s Noah Gregor.
Meier is one of the more powerful skaters in the NHL. His ability to create open ice and protect the puck would add undeniable horsepower to the Flames offence. The only issue would be finding room for an extension. Let’s give it a try.
To San Jose
D Noah Hanifin - $4,950,000 until 2024
F Blake Coleman - $4,900,000 until 2028
2023 first-round pick – Top 3 protected
To Calgary
F Timo Meier 6,000,000 (Extended at 8x8)
A signed young top-two defenseman for a young top-three forward under RFA control isn’t a bad start. Unfortunately, outside of talking Jacob Markstrom out of his NMC, there aren’t many options for clearing cap space next season.
Tyler Toffoli or Mikael Backlund could be traded, but in terms of impact, both provide more than Blake.
The two-time cup winner has plenty of use on the ice, but that term is a difficult one to manage. A first-round pick in one of the stronger drafts in the last ten seasons may be enough to entice San Jose general manager Mike Grier.
Tyler Bertuzzi — LW
The 6’2”, left-shooting left wing has had a disappointing 22-23 season. 7 points in 17 games, a -8 at even strength, and a load of bad luck.
In October, Bertuzzi missed nine games after blocking a shot with his right hand. In December? Surgery on his left hand will have him out for six weeks.
A frequent name at the rumour mill, this season may be an opportunity to buy low on a winger that generally has recorded a point twice every three games. The 27-year-old has 193 points in 293 outings and is coming off a 61-point campaign in 21-22.
The nephew of Todd Bertuzzi may fetch a return of a second-round pick this season or a first in the 2024 NHL Entry Draft. It’s unlikely any GM is willing to pony up a coveted 2023 first-round pick for potentially damaged goods. He carries a $4,750,000 cap hit this season and is free to walk as a UFA after that.
Jesse Puljujarvi — RW
One thing that Puljujarvi has in abundance is latent scoring ability. He routinely becomes the best player in the Liiga when he plays stints overseas. The 6’4” winger has 65 points in 72 games for Kärpät since 2019. In those games, you get to see an entirely different side of his game.
The Oilers aren’t getting that out of him and it has become common knowledge that Ken Holland is looking for a trade partner.
The question would be “What can Darryl Sutter get out of this guy?” He’s proven he can be a dominant forechecker, which if the Flames coach singled that out as his role, would be great. Can he finally find his offensive game with the Flames though?
Watching him play more comfortably in Finland, he likes to generate turnovers and start up an offensive play in his own time. Jonathan Huberdeau likes to do that too.
Puljujarvi has ten points in 49 games this season and carries a $3,000,000 cap hit. His cap hit and production make him difficult to unload without providing additional assets. The Flames could likely acquire his contract for a 6th or a 7th merely for Holland to say that he at least got some form of return beyond future considerations.
Sam Lafferty — LW/C
Acquired from the Pittsburgh Penguins for Alex Nylander on January 5, 2022, Lafferty has proven himself a valuable penalty killer on Chicago’s second unit. He leads the Blackhawks with three shorthanded goals and his ability to read the play and jump into the transition has proved a valuable tool in the Blackhawks’ limited offensive toolbox.
More interesting is the progression his game has shown over the last month. His five goals in 13 games is a 31-goal pace across a full season. His shooting percentage rocketed up from 8.6% over the first 35 games to an unsustainable 19.2% in January.
The 27-year-old’s 17 points in 42 games aren’t all that impressive, but it’s worth noting that a back injury had him playing less effective hockey in November and December. Over those two months, he had only two assists in 20 games. In October and January? 15 points in 22 games.
Blackhawks general manager Kyle Davidson is likely well aware of Lafferty’s potential value on the trade market. With the draft being of higher quality this year, it’s worth wondering if a second-round pick would be enough to acquire Sam’s rights through next season at a frugal $1,150,000 cap hit.
From within
While it’s fun to discuss potential additions, it would be even more exciting to see players such as Jakob Pelletier, Matthew Phillips, or Connor Zary find their way into a middle-six role. Pelletier has looked like a fit, but is yet to record a point in four NHL games.
With five days before the next Flames game, be sure to stop in for a couple more off day pieces.
Trevor Neufeld
@Trevor_Neufeld
Stats via eliteprospects.com, nhl.com, capfriendly.com, naturalstattrick.com and theahl.com.
Calgary Flames Blogger • 
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