Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 

Exploring Calgary's Recent Spiral – Team Identity – Justin Kirkland's Value

November 8, 2024, 10:41 PM ET [10 Comments]
Trevor Neufeld
Calgary Flames Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
The Calgary Flames are 14 games into the 2024-2025 NHL Regular Season and we at HockeyBuzz figured it would be a good time to take stock of exactly where the team is and how it’s gone so far.

On paper, the early stages of this campaign look solid. The team is 13th in terms of both points percentage, .571, and points, with 16. A 7-5-2 record is enviable among most of the NHL.

Despite being in a rebuild/retool season, the Flames are tied 1-1 in their season series with the archrival Edmonton Oilers, which is a bonus.

But what exactly is this team? Do they have an identity?

It’s complicated.

Some may theorize that the group caught other teams off guard in early October. A 5-0-1 start is a franchise record for the first six games of a Flames season. The group simply appeared to be an entirely different team from what they are today. By the end of their run, they were tied for second in the NHL in points with the Rangers and Devils.

Much of that success was based on extended offensive zone time. Gaining the zone was also seemingly a lot easier for the Flames during that run.

It’s possible that opposing teams were still stitching up how they protect the middle of the ice in the neutral zone. Zone defences take time to get up and running as well. Maybe it’s as simple as teams get hot and play well sometimes.

Whatever it was, the Flames offence has been muzzled since October 24. 2.13 goals per game since then is good for 30th in the NHL. Prior to that, it was a 7th place 3.83 goals per game.

The defence also seemed to falter. They ran a 5th-ranked 2.50 goals against per game in their first six and a 31st-ranked 3.63 GA/GP in eight after that.

Naturally, the 30th-ranked offense and 31st-ranked defence hit their record. Since that hot streak ended, they're 2-5-1 for 29th-place.

OK. Lots of stats, but we have a general idea. Hot start, very cold now. Looking at the stats as a whole gives the impression that the team is having a respectable season, but things are a bit more bleak on the ice.

The persisting issues seem to be neutral zone management, protecting the bluelines, attacking the blue lines, and protecting the middle of the D-zone. Individually, almost every single player on the roster has gone cold offensively. The team scored three empty-net goals during their first six games, which pumped their offensive stats even more.


What Now?
That question is for General Manager Craig Conroy to answer, and it leads to a series of other questions.

Does he wait for the team to keep losing before starting to make trades?

Does making trades even make the Flames worse? They have a better record after trading all of their high-value pending free agents from last season. AJ Greer and Adam Ruzicka had to leave the lineup for Connor Zary and Martin Pospisil to carve out spots. Will making more room on the roster actually lead to a higher finish in the standings?

On top of all of that, who goes?

Per Elliotte Friedman’s 32 Thoughts on October 30, the market is heating up already.

1. Talk has picked up, and will continue to do so. Some of the teams who preached patience are starting to run out of it. And you can see (and feel) the pressure ramping up on the coaches, too.


He pointed out that Colorado and Montreal are looking for a forward. Kevyn Adams in Buffalo is also looking to add.

Defencemen Timothy Liljegren and Olli Maatta have been traded for a third round pick (and change), so you can expect that will be the price for Tyson Barrie.

The following players are unrestricted free agents on July 1:

RW Andrei Kuzmenko
RW Anthony Mantha
G Daniel Vladar
D Tyson Barrie
C Kevin Rooney
C Justin Kirkland

It’s not last year’s UFA class, but that’s a lot of trade capital. One might laugh at the inclusion of Justin Kirkland, but he’s done more for his career this season than any other forward on the roster.


Costco Value
Let's take a dive into Justin Kirkland’s stats. They’re solid in terms of quantity but even better when it comes to efficiency.

Justin Kirkland – 2024-2025

GP: 11
TOI/GP: 10:49
Goals: 1
Assists: 5
+/-: +4

Those are great stats for a fourth line forward. He's first on the team in points per 60 minutes (3.02) and assists per 60 (2.52). He's second on the team in hits per 60 (14.6) behind Adam Klapka (24.14). Mind you, these rates are at all strengths. He has an even bigger lead in most of those categories when you account for other players getting regular special teams deployment. Kirkland has been on the ice for just 29 seconds of powerplay.

On top of that, he’s only taken two minor penalties in 11 games.

It’s certainly surreal, but you have to wonder what Justin Kirkland would be valued at as a rental.

He’s from two points shy of tying Kadri, Zary, and Huberdeau (8 points) for first among Flames forwards in scoring while playing fewer minutes and less skilled linemates. He also carries a much smaller cap hit on his league minimum ($775,000) contract.

There will likely be no bites. General managers don’t like admitting that they missed out on a free asset, but maybe we’ll be surprised.


Stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and the National Hockey League.


Join the Discussion: » 10 Comments » Post New Comment
More from Trevor Neufeld
» Game Day vs Kings — Heart Attack Hockey Returns — Mantha’s Season Over
» Poking the Bear – Hunt Recalled – An Odd Lineup – Game Day vs Bruins
» Kicking Off a Road Trip – French Connection – Kuzmenko Rising – Game Day
» Fixing Bad Habits: Battle of Alberta Game Day
» Column: Struggling Scandinavians – Kuzmenko & the Trade Market – Oilers