Pierre Lebrun of the Athletic dropped a bit of a bomb on Flames fans on Friday. A small snippet of the intel he had rounded up across the league:
All signs point to defenseman Noah Hanifin not wanting to extend with the Flames, so that situation is likely headed for a trade. He’s got one year left on his deal at a $4.95 million AAV. Obviously, new Flames GM Craig Conroy is juggling a lot with Elias Lindholm, Mikael Backlund and Tyler Toffoli among other players entering the last year of their deals and the Flames needing answers. Calgary, like Winnipeg, is an action team right now and can impact things around the league in many ways. The question is whether Conroy will be able to convince enough of these guys to extend and stay on board. His optimistic and positive demeanor is his greatest asset as a first-time GM.
Don’t mind the white noise. That’s just your brain managing the PTSD suffered at the hands of Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau’s departure.
Unfortunately, it seems another citizen of the United States has expressed their intention to move on from the Calgary Flames organization. The notion of the smooth-skating, six-foot-three defender wanting to live somewhere warmer and more stress-free is a personal affront to all Flames fans. You should be outraged.
With that said, let’s do a cursory review of what Noah Hanifin provides on the ice.
The Pros
Dominant transition game
The 26 year old Boston, Massachusetts native had seven goals and 38 points in 81 games in the 2022-2023 regular season. More importantly, Hanifin’s strong transition game made life a lot easier for other members of the Flames.
All Three Zones is a project that tracks various aspects of the game that you can’t find on some of the other sites. For a small monthly fee, you get access to data on puck retrievals, zone entries — all sorts of cool stuff. Per All Three Zones, Noah is on an elite level when it comes to maintaining possession when carrying the puck into the offensive zone.
We get from this that while Hanifin isn’t usually breaking the puck into the offensive zone, but when he does he’s very good at it.
High-end speed
As we saw in the 2021-2022 regular season, Noah Hanifin has the tools to fit in on a unit that consistently pins the opposition in their own zone. He has both the lateral acceleration and a high-end top speed needed to keep gaps tight against even the league’s best skaters. His ability to catch pucks before they leave the offensive zone is also a considerable asset.
A sneaky-good triggerman
Noah led the Flames blueline in shots at 5v5 over the 2022-2023 regular season. He finished with 176 — 16 more than the next on the list, McKenzie Weegar. His bread and butter is the wicked release on his wrist shot which usually results in a very tippable, low-trajectory volley at the net. 106 or roughly 60% of his shots were wrist shots last season. Six of his seven goals came from said wrist shot.
While his 4% shooting percentage on the season isn’t worth writing home about; it’s his style of approach to shooting that can be what’s dangerous about Noah Hanifin having the puck in the offensive zone. Per moneypuck.com, 8.5% of his shots in 2022-2023 generated a rebound that was followed up with another shot. That’s an extra 15 saucy opportunities at the net.
Like many Calgary Flames players last season, Noah had a case of bad luck. His seven goals could have easily been ten or eleven. Hanifin led the blueline in the posts hit category with five, although Rasmus Andersson tied that mark if you add up crossbars(3) and posts(2). Hanifin’s Swedish defence partner simply aims higher.
A final note on Hanifin as an offensive option — he loves to jump up on the play in the offensive zone. Check out his goal map from 2022-2023. Courtesy of moneypuck.
His willingness to wheel in the offensive zone allows him to follow up on the chaos that his unique shot creates.
So you’re getting a 6’3”, 207lb, 26 year old who is one of the better skaters in the league. He’s on a gorgeous cap hit of $4,950,000 for one more season. What’s the catch?
The Cons
Lower-end corner man
Hanifin struggles with handling an aggressive forecheck from time to time. Similarly, he has never been exceptional at boxing out forwards in front of the net. Another excellent stat from All Three Zones.
Here we see Hanifin both leads the blue line on botched puck retrievals in his own end per 60 as well as ranks 5th in puck retrievals leading to zone exits. This partially explains why Hanifin eventually found his way onto a pairing with Chris Tanev, who is one of the best players in the world when it comes to retrieving the puck and getting it out of the defensive zone.
This isn’t exactly reinventing the wheel in terms of performance issues. Hanifin will simply need a strong defensive complement him in order to form a dominant pairing at both ends of the ice.
Alright, we’ve summed up his game. What could he bring back in a trade?
We’re very lucky in that we have some precedent set from three trades.
Jakob Chychrun for two more seasons at $4,650,000 brought back a top 5 protected first round pick, a conditional second round pick in 2024 and a second round pick in 2026. Great haul, but let’s assume the contract bumped that return.
Matthias Ekholm costed Ken Holland former first rounder Reid Schaefer, a first round pick in the 2023 NHL Draft and a fourth-round pick in the 2024 NHL Draft, and Edmonton got a sixth-round pick in 2024. While two firsts and a fourth would be great, Ekholm is also signed to a decent six-million dollar cap hit for three more seasons.
One more. Let’s check the boxes. A top four defenceman, strong puck skills, decent production and most importantly, one more season on contract.
Right, Hronek.
The Canucks acquired the rights to 25 year old Filip Hronek at last year’s NHL trade deadline in return for the Islanders’ 2023 first round pick (top 12 protected) and their own 2023 second round pick.
While Hronek struggles far more in his own end, you’re likely not finding a much better comparable. Hronek scored nine goals and 39 points, and Hanifin had seven goals and 38 points last season. Hronek gets paid $4,400,000 through next season. Hanifin gets paid $4,950,000 through next season. The only difference is Hronek has RFA status after next year.
The Czech also gets pushed around a good amount over 82 games.
Ok, we can expect something along the lines of a mid-first and an early second or equivalent value. Let’s look at a couple of trade concepts. Let’s go from the most logical to one that is more fun.
This trade feels like a perfect fit.
To St. Louis
Noah Hanifin
To Calgary
10th overall pick
The Blues had issues with both injury and inconsistency last season among their core. With that said, they’re not entirely entering a rebuild just yet despite the loss of Ryan O’Reilly.
What may help the team take a big step is a shakeup in the top four.
Goals for vs goals against — St. Louis top 4
Leddy-Parayko – 34-47 996 minutes of ice time
Krug-Faulk – 26-34 614 minutes of ice time
The Leddy-Parayko Experience needs to be put to an end. An extended Noah Hanifin would solve a lot of problems in terms of puck management.
Ok, let’s look at a hockey trade. A blockbuster at that.
To Winnipeg
Noah Hanifin (50% retained) — $2,475,000 for one more season
Daniel Vladar — $2,200,000 for two more seasons
Nazem Kadri — $7,000,000 for six more seasons
To Calgary
Mark Scheifele — $6,000,000 for one more season
Alright. Don’t shoot just yet. Here’s what Friedman had to say on Winnipeg on June 2 in a conversation with David Amber.
Friedman indicated on the Sportsnet intermission panel that Winnipeg:
“knows it’s going to have to listen on some of their key players” and then mentioned Hellebuyck, Scheifele and Dubois who all have one year left.
“What I think the Jets have made very clear is this is not going to be a rebuild, they are not tearing it down and they are not starting over again. Obviously, there could be some futures as part of these trades if it happens, but they’ve got a lot of good players on term contracts and they wanna support them. So they’re looking for players, if they make these deals, that can help right away not just futures. This won’t be a rebuild.”
We certainly have the proper conditions for a good old fashioned hockey trade. If Mark Scheifele is indeed being shopped, and if Pierre-Luc Dubois indeed wants to go elsewhere — most likely LA or Montreal if rumours are accurate — who exactly is left to play center in the top six?
With Hellebuyck potentially being moved and Rittich an unrestricted free agent — who is going to tend the crease?
If Winnipeg can extend Noah Hanifin, that’s three big pieces locked up for at least two more seasons.
On Calgary’s end, they free themselves of maybe a bit of a regretful rebound contract. Kadri has the tools to turn it around, but it’s questionable whether he’s enjoyed his time in Calgary. Rumours at season’s end suggest that the Flames locker room isn’t exactly simpatico still. Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff would have to be confident in a rebound from the 32 year old London, Ontario native. If Kadri were to turn the page and put up 70-some points next season; that’s a win for Winnipeg.
The move would open up $5,450,000 in cap space for Calgary.
They say the sign of a fair trade is when neither side is happy with the return. At first glance, it doesn’t feel good to read, but the more you sit on it — the more it makes sense for both sides. That is, as long as Scheifele is willing to sign an extension.
Calgary would get a center that is exceptionally talented at creating room with the puck. There is zero doubt that his talents would mesh well with Jonathan Huberdeau’s ability to break plays open when given time and space.
While the first proposal is likely more attractive in terms of asset management, both teams may come out better off if they both intend to compete in the near future with the second offer. What are you hoping for in return for Noah Hanifin? Fans of other teams: what would you be willing to trade for the 26 year old?
Trevor Neufeld
@Trevor_Neufeld
Stats via All Three Zones, moneypuck.com, naturalstattrick.com and nhl.com.
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