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Stone or Duchene? That is the Question

January 21, 2019, 2:47 AM ET [41 Comments]
Trevor Shackles
Ottawa Senators Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
You can follow me on Twitter @ShackTS

Yesterday's rumour tidbit came from Darren Dreger, which gave some specifics on the Matt Duchene contract talks:




On an 8-year deal, the cap hit between $65-75M would be anywhere from $8.125M to $9.375M, which is still quite a large gap. I'd be pretty surprised if Duchene is able to get as high as $9.375M, although his agent Pat Brisson could probably make the argument that that is what he would get on the open market. I've always been comfortable with giving Duchene about $8M per season and maybe a bit more than that, but a cap hit at around $9M would be a tough pill to swallow.

Duchene has a lot of leverage here because he knows the situation that the Senators are in, and I don't blame him for shooting for the stars considering that he's been over a point per game player in the last calendar year. At the same time, I'd be just a bit hesitant to go as high as he wants, plus I very much doubt that Pierre Dorion and the Senators would be willing to give him that kind of dough.

We will know in the next few weeks whether it's a possibility to keep him around at all, and if it's not, he'll be involved in many trade discussions around the league. What I'm curious to know is how people view Duchene when compared to Mark Stone. Obviously, they are both impending UFA's this summer, and they are both due for massive contracts. However, they are different kinds of forwards, but both effective in their own ways. With how well Stone has been playing for the past season and a half, I'd be shocked if he gets anything less than $9M per season on his next contract, and he should be getting more than Duchene too because he is the better all-around player.

If Duchene was willing to sign an 8-year deal with a cap hit of $8.25M and Stone was willing to sign an 8-year deal with a cap hit of $9.5M, which one would you prefer if it was not possible to keep both (because Eugene Melnyk exists even in hypotheticals)?

Stone is one year younger than Duchene, plus I think he is going to age better due to his ability to due literally everything on the ice well. If his goal scoring declines, he will still have room on a roster as a defensive specialist. Duchene, on the other hand, is nowhere near as good as Stone defensively, and once his offensive abilities fall off, he might end up being a Bobby Ryan type player. I don't expect that to happen to him in his early 30s like it did to Ryan, but I can certainly see Duchene's production dropping off at the tail end of a big contract.

Stone is also guaranteed to be the next captain if he is re-signed, and it seems like he is a fantastic leader for this team. His contract is almost certainly going to be more money than Duchene's, but I think it would certainly be worth it to keep him instead if a decision ever came down to that. Obviously it's not like this scenario where we have to pick one is real, but I'm interested to hear what others think.

As always, the prices matter here, and that's pretty much the main thing that would make this discussion close. If you had to pick, would you go with the slightly cheaper elite first line centre or would you go with the more well-rounded right-winger? Let's hear it in the comments.
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