The first “big” signing under Kyle Davidson this past off season was Max Domi. Like many Hawk fans, I was curious what we are getting from Max and wondering if there was any chance of him reaching the potential scouts once predicted. Over the weekend, I received a message from SchwiftyHawk. He told me about this blog, he and TheSabresTaco spent a lot of time working on breaking down the advanced stats of Domi. After giving it a read, I found it super interesting the way they were able to deep dive into Domi’s career and how in-depth they got with his advance stats. With all their hard work they put into this piece, I knew it had to be shared. Take a read and let SchwiftyHawk and TheSabresTaco know what you think!
When we talk about Max Domi, we’re talking about a player who has battled inconsistency for his entire professional career. To understand why, we need to take a look at all available viewports, from the big picture to the micro level.
When Max was with the London Knights, his scouting profile was as pristine as one could ask for, for a forward in the offensive zone. Elite vision. Goal scorer. Great passer. Hockey IQ. Speed. Dawg In Him™. Agile. He was inconsistent in the defensive zone however, and like most first round projected forwards, they continue to develop that side of the game. His size as well was not NHL ready, again like most kids before the draft.
So why was he not drafted until 12? It was believed his size would be a factor in how effective he would be in the NHL, as well as his defensive and off-puck commitment. Still, in 2013 when “big” was still the dominating trait GMs loved, being drafted that early is pretty impressive.
Domi remained in London for a year after his draft and put up 102 points in 57 games, continuing along his expected development path while also refining his defensive game. Domi also had 10 points in 7 games playing in the World Juniors with Sam Reinhart and Connor McDavid.
It was a year later that Domi joined the Coyotes and had a fantastic rookie campaign, putting up 52 points on a below average Coyotes squad. As is common with rookies in all skater positions, they will be placed in a position to succeed. Generally all offensive skaters will be provided with heavy use in the offensive zone, and defensive skaters will be paired with stronger vets against lower competition in an even distribution on the ice. Domi is no different and was provided significant offensive zone time (66.4% OZ and 33.6% DZ) which would assist in his corsi and fenwick numbers to be above 50%. Max’s PDO, or very simply “luck”, was 102.9, which means he was lucky on his scoring chances, and one could expect a modest regression. His advanced analytics were strong here, with his overall contributions (xGAR (expected goals)/ xWAR (expected wins above replacement)/ xSPAR (expected standings points)) being 9.8/1.9/3.7 respectively. Max had brought Arizona an additional ~4 points in the standings, making him the 79th most “useful” forward that year. Players in this vein included players like Chris Kreider, Max Pacioretty, Jeff Skinner and Claude Giroux. Domi’s RAPM scores are similarly aligned, making him the 67th strongest forward for scoring impact. Overall for a rookie, a very strong and promising season.
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As his time went on in Arizona, those numbers declined. By his second year and third year, his offense had stagnated and his overall impacts had gotten to be significantly worse. His PDO had leveled out and his deployment remained similar. His corsi and fenwick remained positive, but his individual impacts had tanked. By his third season, his xGAR/xWAR/xSPAR had devolved to -6.5/-1.3/-2.4. You may recall that this is approximately when Duncan Keith and Patrick Sharp were starting to slip. Domi was having similar negative impacts on Arizona as Keith and Sharp were having on Chicago. And so, Arizona had given up on Domi and shipped him to Montreal.
Montreal got the best version of Domi that year, putting up 72 points in 82 games, his strongest season to date. Even his defensive impacts, which has always been negative for his entire career, was only a modest -1.4. For a top 6 forward putting up over 70 points is generally worth ignoring.
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Unfortunately for Max, while receiving similar playing time and deployment, his box score stats had greatly decreased and his impacts on his team as a whole leveled out to average at best. His PDO was 99.6, which means he was a bit unlucky but generally level. While Domi faced approximately equal competition from his two years in Montreal, his quality of teammate actually increased by a modest amount.
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Domi’s actual (not expected) WAR rates are an interesting tale that doesn’t necessarily correspond with his offensive output. Domi started his career with a WAR rating of 81% as a rookie. He steadily declined over his final two year with Arizona, crashing at 13%. Once traded to MTL and CBJ, his career steadily rose from the ashes. His best offensive year, 72 points in 18-19, his WAR was only 27% because of his negative impacts on the power play and his own zone. The following year, Montreal fans were able to see an even better version of Domi. His defensive impacts remained the same but he actually played better offense and powerplay, making the 19-20 season the best of his career. The points weren’t there like the previous season, but having Max on the ice was a big benefit to Montreal. I believe Montreal was simply looking for a different type of player when the unhappy Josh Anderson was sent packing out of Columbus. Montreal probably wasn’t sure what they should be paying Max considering how streaky his career had been. His 72 season was probably viewed more as an anomaly than a breakthrough. And so he was sent away for the more physically imposing Anderson. Max showed up to Columbus and was absolutely steamrolled by Torts. In his entire career, Domi has always been a “plus” player. Positive impacts on WAR and GAR even though his play outside of EV offense wasn’t great. But this particular year, he was negatives all across the board. He was one of the worst impact forwards in the league, ironically along with Josh Anderson, the Sabres’ Eric Staal (woof), Montreal’s Eric Staal (WOOF) and Chicago’s David Kampf, which I’m sure you are all keenly aware of. When Torts took off, Domi bounced right on back putting up similar career offense (outside of that one year in Montreal). His impacts were more than acceptable, being similarly as quality as guys like Yanni Gourde, Teuvo Teravainen and stronger than Jon Toews. But once again, the Blue Jackets shipped him off in a roundabout way to Carolina in a complicated trade that included a couple low-expectation prospects, making Domi, likely, the best guy in the trade when you consider the present and future. At this point, you can see what he’s worth around the league and what he can and can’t do. He will likely never be a guy who earns a long term contract.
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So, with all of that out of the way, what can we expect to see from Domi this year? Well, he’s certainly been relatively steady in his box scoring and his overall positive impact to his team when healthy. Removing the awful year with Torts and the great year in Montreal, he’s a run of the mill, top 9, 50 point forward who can probably be a nice utility player paired with a strong defensive presence on his line. While investigating Max’s microstats, his common trends keep coming up. Solid offensive play, poor defensive play, underwhelming finishing while receiving a lot of high danger opportunity. He takes a lot of penalties and is usually not paired with the better third of the forwards. He’s pretty below average in entries and exists and he has a difficult time with puck retrieval. He’s also poor on the powerplay, which is interesting because he’s a very talented passer.
To put all this together, Chicago is getting a low risk, moderate reward guy who plays a chippy game, can play at a 50 point pace, is extremely unreliable in his own end and won’t score a ton of goals. For a team like Chicago trying to add a little excitement while [whispers] *tanking*, it’s a nice gamble for Domi to re-establish himself and to punch in some care free points while the Hawks fans blame the bad defense and goaltending. Considering the “talent” the Hawks left themselves with for the upcoming season, he shouldn’t have a problem being one of their best forwards. If Max likes the team environment and wants to be a part of a rebuild, this could be a good opportunity for him to get himself a multiyear deal.
Image Credit: Evolving-Hockey and JFresh Hockey
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