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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Voracek, Cap Space, Laviolette
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steelydan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philly, PA
Joined: 04.16.2009

Jul 27 @ 1:45 PM ET
how am i assigning "false values". i'm stating what value they have to the Philadelphia flyers.

on the Flyers, Matt Read is 3rd line forward. on the Flyers, Andres Mezaros is a 3rd pairing dman. the first round picks are what they are to the Flyers.

other teams see that too...it alters their trade value for sure

- eshake


This makes little-to-no sense. Regardless of what pairing Meszaros played on, anyone with an inkling of hockey knowledge knows that defenseman tend to be paired up with their partners based on each other's strengths and weaknesses. If you were to rank the Flyers defenseman in terms of overall value, Meszaros would likely be 3rd, behind Timonen and Coburn. He would likely rank 3rd or 4th in value on any other NHL roster as well. You're splitting hairs and it holds no water in trade negotiations....

Same goes for Read. The Flyers were deep in terms of offensive talent last year and Read, being a rookie, would not get the nod to be on the 1st or 2nd line. Fast forward to this year. After losing Jagr and JVR, Read will certainly get his chance to move up to the 2nd line, just as Vorcacek moves to the first line. Read will likely improve his value, especially due to his low cap-hit.

Other teams are not as plain-minded as the logic you've just displayed.
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jul 27 @ 1:47 PM ET
what i'm saying is, in negotiation that value to the Flyers comes into play. it has too.
- eshake


Well, I think the way you put it earlier is more accurate - dealing from a surplus to fix a weakness.

I do understand your point, and it's a legimate option. But it's subjective, and I personally wouldn't build the team that way.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 27 @ 1:47 PM ET
how am i assigning "false values". i'm stating what value they have to the Philadelphia flyers.

on the Flyers, Matt Read is 3rd line forward. on the Flyers, Andres Mezaros is a 3rd pairing dman. the first round picks are what they are to the Flyers.

other teams see that too...it alters their trade value for sure

- eshake



Your not correctly stating what value they have to the Flyers at all.

It's a false perception that doesn't in any way alter the trade value of any of those players. Nor does it alter the trade value of Bobby Ryan in any way.
Flyers2821
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 01.16.2010

Jul 27 @ 1:49 PM ET
This makes little-to-no sense. Regardless of what pairing Meszaros played on, anyone with an inkling of hockey knowledge knows that defenseman tend to be paired up with their partners based on each other's strengths and weaknesses. If you were to rank the Flyers defenseman in terms of overall value, Meszaros would likely be 3rd, behind Timonen and Coburn. He would likely rank 3rd or 4th in value on any other NHL roster as well. You're splitting hairs and it holds no water in trade negotiations....

Same goes for Read. The Flyers were deep in terms of offensive talent last year and Read, being a rookie, would not get the nod to be on the 1st or 2nd line. Fast forward to this year. After losing Jagr and JVR, Read will certainly get his chance to move up to the 2nd line, just as Vorcacek moves to the first line. Read will likely improve his value, especially due to his low cap-hit.

Other teams are not as plain-minded as the logic you've just displayed.

- steelydan


While I like Matt Read as a player, the kids not gonna progress into a tremendous player. He is going to be what he is. He may improve slightly but he isn't going to progress into anything even relatively close to Bobby Ryan. He is going to be a Sammy Kapanen type of player. I think many Flyers fans overrate Matt Read.

As for Meszaros, he is a valuable part of this team since we have not acquired any other dmen this offseason other than Schenn. I would be hard pressed to give him up.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 27 @ 1:49 PM ET
what i'm saying is, in negotiation that value to the Flyers comes into play. it has too.

and also, if Matt Read is playing the first line...then the flyers are in trouble.

- eshake



Why is that? Matt Read scored 25 goals as a rookie. Again, as I said to you previously. Look around the League. See how many Forwards each team had that scored 25 or more goals.
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jul 27 @ 1:50 PM ET
what i'm saying is, in negotiation that value to the Flyers comes into play. it has too.

and also, if Matt Read is playing the first line...then the flyers are in trouble.

- eshake


I completely disagree with this. He has speed, great hands and finishing ability. I think he would complement Hartsy and G very well. He actually might be my first option even above Schenn and Vorachek, who I think should be on the 2nd line with Briere. I'm back and forth on that tho.
eshake
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philly, PA
Joined: 06.20.2009

Jul 27 @ 1:52 PM ET
This makes little-to-no sense. Regardless of what pairing Meszaros played on, anyone with an inkling of hockey knowledge knows that defenseman tend to be paired up with their partners based on each other's strengths and weaknesses. If you were to rank the Flyers defenseman in terms of overall value, Meszaros would likely be 3rd, behind Timonen and Coburn. He would likely rank 3rd or 4th in value on any other NHL roster as well. You're splitting hairs and it holds no water in trade negotiations....

Same goes for Read. The Flyers were deep in terms of offensive talent last year and Read, being a rookie, would not get the nod to be on the 1st or 2nd line. Fast forward to this year. After losing Jagr and JVR, Read will certainly get his chance to move up to the 2nd line, just as Vorcacek moves to the first line. Read will likely improve his value, especially due to his low cap-hit.

Other teams are not as plain-minded as the logic you've just displayed.

- steelydan


i guess trying to keep what i don't want to give up (Schenn, Couturier) for something i really WANT (Bobby Ryan) by utilizing players on my team that play lesser roles than some of the FANS of my team believe they should is "plain minded".

Matt Read had a diamond in the ruff rookie season at 25 years old. please tell me how the benefit of the doubt leans towards him improving or even maintaining next year on the 3rd line compared to regressing?

And Mezaros could potentially play on any pairing Lavy wanted him to play...but it doesn't make the fact that he's had 1 really good season with the O&B and pretty much 2 overall in his career....


MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 27 @ 1:52 PM ET
While I like Matt Read as a player, the kids not gonna progress into a tremendous player. He is going to be what he is. He may improve slightly but he isn't going to progress into anything even relatively close to Bobby Ryan. He is going to be a Sammy Kapanen type of player. I think many Flyers fans overrate Matt Read.

As for Meszaros, he is a valuable part of this team since we have not acquired any other dmen this offseason other than Schenn. I would be hard pressed to give him up.

- Flyers2821



How exactly do most Flyers fans overrate Matt Read?
eshake
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philly, PA
Joined: 06.20.2009

Jul 27 @ 1:53 PM ET
How exactly do most Flyers fans overrate Matt Read?
- MJL
see my post above yours.

he has speed to burn and can play the PK...but the guy is nowhere close to being as dynamic a player or game changer as a legit top line RW/LW
Flyers2821
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 01.16.2010

Jul 27 @ 1:55 PM ET
How exactly do most Flyers fans overrate Matt Read?
- MJL


Prime example.

"I completely disagree with this. He has speed, great hands and finishing ability. I think he would complement Hartsy and G very well. He actually might be my first option even above Schenn and Vorachek, who I think should be on the 2nd line with Briere. I'm back and forth on that tho."
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 27 @ 1:55 PM ET
i guess trying to keep what i don't want to give up (Schenn, Couturier) for something i really WANT (Bobby Ryan) by utilizing players on my team that play lesser roles than some of the FANS of my team believe they should is "plain minded".

Matt Read had a diamond in the ruff rookie season at 25 years old. please tell me how the benefit of the doubt leans towards him improving or even maintaining next year on the 3rd line compared to regressing?

And Mezaros could potentially play on any pairing Lavy wanted him to play...but it doesn't make the fact that he's had 1 really good season with the O&B and pretty much 2 overall in his career....

- eshake



So we should drastically overpay for a Ryan, because Read, might, and I emphasize might, not match his production from last Season. And because meszaros was hurt last year, and went through the normal growing pains of a young developing defenseman?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 27 @ 1:56 PM ET
Prime example.

"I completely disagree with this. He has speed, great hands and finishing ability. I think he would complement Hartsy and G very well. He actually might be my first option even above Schenn and Vorachek, who I think should be on the 2nd line with Briere. I'm back and forth on that tho."

- Flyers2821



It's a prime example of an accurate assessment of Read as a player.
Daman
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 27 @ 1:57 PM ET
It's a prime example of an accurate assessment of Read as a player.
- MJL


Are there other examples?
coffee junkie
Joined: 02.25.2007

Jul 27 @ 1:57 PM ET
Why is that? Matt Read scored 25 goals as a rookie. Again, as I said to you previously. Look around the League. See how many Forwards each team had that scored 25 or more goals.
- MJL

I agree anything more then Read plus picks and prospects is an over payment. That said, it is only fair, to point out that Matt Read, IMHO, has a "moderate" trade value right now. He is on a great deal with his entry level, put up great numbers and played the PK. He is also smaller, not overly physical mostly due to his size, and not proven he can be consistent in that production yet. I do not agree with the poster that he will not materialize, who knows. But his value is not skyhigh nor worthless. It is moderate. That is why I would say with 2 other quality young assets it is fair value for Ryan. Read, MAB, 1st. Of some recombination like that.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 27 @ 1:57 PM ET
see my post above yours.

he has speed to burn and can play the PK...but the guy is nowhere close to being as dynamic a player or game changer as a legit top line RW/LW

- eshake


And that point is irrelvant to the whether or not the trade proposal is a good one or not. If I was Holmgren and Anaheim asked me for that return, I'd laugh hysterically. Literally. It's that out of line.

Nobody thinks that Read is as good of a player as Ryan is.
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jul 27 @ 1:57 PM ET
While I like Matt Read as a player, the kids not gonna progress into a tremendous player. He is going to be what he is. He may improve slightly but he isn't going to progress into anything even relatively close to Bobby Ryan. He is going to be a Sammy Kapanen type of player. I think many Flyers fans overrate Matt Read.

As for Meszaros, he is a valuable part of this team since we have not acquired any other dmen this offseason other than Schenn. I would be hard pressed to give him up.

- Flyers2821


Hey, if he turns into Kapanen from the late 90's, I'll take that no problem. I don't think we're saying that Read > Ryan. But the incremental benefit of Ryan over Read doesn't justify giving up Mesz and two firsts.

And I'd rather give Read an increase in responsibilities first to determine if he is a Kapanen or a Pisani before putting him as a throw-in in a deal.
Giroux_Is_God
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CLASS DISMISSED
Joined: 12.15.2011

Jul 27 @ 1:58 PM ET
How exactly do most Flyers fans overrate Matt Read?
- MJL

Read is COMPLETELY overrated. He's a fast skater, decent 2 way player, 25ish goal scoring sniper, money on shootouts, and possesses good hockey smarts. And he only costs about 800k.

What a useless scrub.

Flyers2821
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 01.16.2010

Jul 27 @ 1:58 PM ET
So we should drastically overpay for a Ryan, because Read, might, and I emphasize might, not match his production from last Season. And because meszaros was hurt last year, and went through the normal growing pains of a young developing defenseman?
- MJL


I'd be hesitant to give up Mez. I would not hesitate in the slightest to give up Matt Read.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 27 @ 1:59 PM ET
I'd be hesitant to give up Mez. I would not hesitate in the slightest to give up Matt Read.
- Flyers2821


Neither would I in the right deal. But that's not what were talking about. Were talking about including Meszaros, a 1st, and Laughton along with him. It's an asinine overpayment for Ryan.
Flyers2821
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 01.16.2010

Jul 27 @ 1:59 PM ET
Read is COMPLETELY overrated. He's a fast skater, decent 2 way player, 25ish goal scoring sniper, money on shootouts, and possesses good hockey smarts. And he only costs about 800k.

What a useless scrub.


- Giroux_Is_God


Many Flyers fans talk about him like he is the next great thing here in Philly.
eshake
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philly, PA
Joined: 06.20.2009

Jul 27 @ 2:00 PM ET
So we should drastically overpay for a Ryan, because Read, might, and I emphasize might, not match his production from last Season. And because meszaros was hurt last year, and went through the normal growing pains of a young developing defenseman?
- MJL


i would actually put it something like this

we should trade for a given (Bobby Ryan top line winger with 30 goal scoring ability and physical prowes)

for question marks (2 unproven and unselected picks and lower tier players on my depth chart who could regress in their play from 2011-2012 season)

i'm sorry if it's looking like i'm "hating" on Matt Read...i love him as a player. and i like Mezaros.

having Bobby Ryan on your team creates for more constant scoring pressure and potential at 5 on 5 than having both Matt Read and Mezaros on the ice.


BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Jul 27 @ 2:00 PM ET
see my post above yours.

he has speed to burn and can play the PK...but the guy is nowhere close to being as dynamic a player or game changer as a legit top line RW/LW

- eshake

I haven't seen anybody claim he's a 'legit top line winger'. He's a young, well rounded two way player who has a twenty goal season under his belt and a very comfortable cap hit.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 27 @ 2:00 PM ET
I agree anything more then Read plus picks and prospects is an over payment. That said, it is only fair, to point out that Matt Read, IMHO, has a "moderate" trade value right now. He is on a great deal with his entry level, put up great numbers and played the PK. He is also smaller, not overly physical mostly due to his size, and not proven he can be consistent in that production yet. I do not agree with the poster that he will not materialize, who knows. But his value is not skyhigh nor worthless. It is moderate. That is why I would say with 2 other quality young assets it is fair value for Ryan. Read, MAB, 1st. Of some recombination like that.
- coffee junkie



One question. How can Rookie who has played one NHL Season, prove that he can be consistent in that production?
Giroux_Is_God
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CLASS DISMISSED
Joined: 12.15.2011

Jul 27 @ 2:01 PM ET
Many Flyers fans talk about him like he is the next great thing here in Philly.
- Flyers2821

Why wouldn't you be excited for a player of his caliber for that cap hit?
eshake
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philly, PA
Joined: 06.20.2009

Jul 27 @ 2:01 PM ET
25ish goal scoring sniper.

- Giroux_Is_God


gimme a break dude
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