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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Voracek, Cap Space, Laviolette
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coffee junkie
Joined: 02.25.2007

Jul 27 @ 5:44 PM ET
He is absolutely being realistic. Let's look at Parise and the deal he signed. If because of Doan's age, let's look at a 3 year deal. If you take Parise's salary for he first 3 years, his Cap hit based on that would be 11.6M. He's getting paid 35M in the first 3 years So Doan asking for a deal worth 7.5M , and being paid 22.5M , for 3 years, is completely realistic based on the market price.
- MJL

I agree. He can ask for the moon right now and someone will probably give it to him. If he also cares what team he plays for it might limit his options more and decline the offer a bit. For the Flyers the real question isn't for this year (although it would mean no upgrade on D) as we have available cap space and could use Doan it is in 3 yrs when the kids all need a raise (Schenn, G, Cout). What long term affects would that kind of hit have on the Flyers? Of course a ton can change from year to year but any educated guesses?
77rams
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: There's a kind of freedom in being completely screwed...
Joined: 09.12.2006

Jul 27 @ 5:46 PM ET
We have yet to see what the demand is given his current asking price. Would teams like to add him, no doubt. I just cant see many (any?) teams signing him at a 7.5mil cap hit over 4 years on an over 35 deal. He plays a power forward game. Those guys don't last forever and when the decline they do it fast. Look at LeClair or more recently Knuble. Siging him for what he wants would be a big risk for a GM.
- Lexington Flyer


There always seems to be one GM out there willing to stick his neck out.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 27 @ 5:47 PM ET
I agree. He can ask for the moon right now and someone will probably give it to him. If he also cares what team he plays for it might limit his options more and decline the offer a bit. For the Flyers the real question isn't for this year (although it would mean no upgrade on D) as we have available cap space and could use Doan it is in 3 yrs when the kids all need a raise (Schenn, G, Cout). What long term affects would that kind of hit have on the Flyers? Of course a ton can change from year to year but any educated guesses?
- coffee junkie


I think the effect is significant. I would love to have Doan. But not at that price.
coffee junkie
Joined: 02.25.2007

Jul 27 @ 5:47 PM ET
We have yet to see what the demand is given his current asking price. Would teams like to add him, no doubt. I just cant see many (any?) teams signing him at a 7.5mil cap hit over 4 years on an over 35 deal. He plays a power forward game. Those guys don't last forever and when the decline they do it fast. Look at LeClair or more recently Knuble. Siging him for what he wants would be a big risk for a GM.
- Lexington Flyer


I shutter to say, I don't think that would stop Homer. He was willing to shell out serious cash for Parise, Sutter, Weber, and even Nash (7.8). The Flyers could be still in for that request (I understand all your points and agree with you that I personally wouldn't do it for the player and age).
coffee junkie
Joined: 02.25.2007

Jul 27 @ 5:48 PM ET
I think the effect is significant. I would love to have Doan. But not at that price.
- MJL

Quantify significant
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 27 @ 5:53 PM ET
Quantify significant
- coffee junkie


Well let's quick look at not this off season but the next. After the 12/13 Season. The Flyers right now are looking at around 21M of available Cap space. Sign Doan to a 7.5 Cap hit multi year deal. And now your looking at less then 14M of available space. With Hartnell needing to be re-signed or replaced. A replacement for Timonen. And Wayne Simmonds needing to be re-signed. Simmonds isn't likely to be a big deal. But with 14M and needing a top Winger and a top defenseman.
coffee junkie
Joined: 02.25.2007

Jul 27 @ 5:58 PM ET
Well let's quick look at not this off season but the next. After the 12/13 Season. The Flyers right now are looking at around 21M of available Cap space. Sign Doan to a 7.5 Cap hit multi year deal. And now your looking at less then 14M of available space. With Hartnell needing to be re-signed or replaced. A replacement for Timonen. And Wayne Simmonds needing to be re-signed. Simmonds isn't likely to be a big deal. But with 14M and needing a top Winger and a top defenseman.
- MJL

Simmonds at a 2 M increase if he has a great season? 12M
Harts re-upps for a "cap-friendly" hit of 6.5M? 5.5M
Replacement for Timonen (if even available as a UFA) at 7-8M? = No go.
*Trade would be needed if that is the route they go.

Hmmm... that looks like a tricky situation but not impossible honestly. I would be more concerned about the next year.

Edit: Sorry I messed up with the math on the first line. It looks even dicier with the right number for Simmonds.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 27 @ 6:03 PM ET
Simmonds at a 2 M increase if he has a great season? 12M
Harts re-upps for a "cap-friendly" hit of 6.5M? 5.5M
Replacement for Timonen (if even available as a UFA) at 7-8M? = No go.
*Trade would be needed if that is the route they go.

Hmmm... that looks like a tricky situation but not impossible honestly. I would be more concerned about the next year.

Edit: Sorry I messed up with the math on the first line. It looks even dicier with the right number for Simmonds.

- coffee junkie


The following Season, your looking at 35M. Add Doan's 7.5 potentially, and now you've got Giroux, Schenn, Couturier, and Meszaros to re-sign.

And there's a good chance the the Cap could be lower then it is now. The players already signed will likely have their salaries rolled back by a percentage. And with the possible term limits and limits on front loading. Think Giroux is going to take less money because of that? So how likely is he to have a manageable Cap hit? Were talking close to max, and a possible 8 figure Cap hit.
hammarby31
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: it's been 84 years, AZ
Joined: 01.02.2007

Jul 27 @ 6:11 PM ET
No fun in doing that
- ob18


speak for yourself, dilbert.
coffee junkie
Joined: 02.25.2007

Jul 27 @ 6:24 PM ET
The following Season, your looking at 35M. Add Doan's 7.5 potentially, and now you've got Giroux, Schenn, Couturier, and Meszaros to re-sign.

And there's a good chance the the Cap could be lower then it is now. The players already signed will likely have their salaries rolled back by a percentage. And with the possible term limits and limits on front loading. Think Giroux is going to take less money because of that? So how likely is he to have a manageable Cap hit? Were talking close to max, and a possible 8 figure Cap hit.

- MJL

I agree the cap situation would become sticky at best. That said, I think Homer will still consider 4/$30M. Guy isn't afraid and never blinks.

That bolded part was too far. Sure anything is possible, but if that happens I would be completely shocked, especially under a new more stringent CBA. Too far IMHO.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 27 @ 6:34 PM ET
I agree the cap situation would become sticky at best. That said, I think Homer will still consider 4/$30M. Guy isn't afraid and never blinks.

That bolded part was too far. Sure anything is possible, but if that happens I would be completely shocked, especially under a new more stringent CBA. Too far IMHO.

- coffee junkie


Completely shocked at what, the 8 figure cap hit? Think about it. Say that they limit the contracts to 5 year deals. Parise's new deal is worth 53M over the first 5 years. If it was a 5 year deal, his Cap hit would be 10.6M. They are going to lower the players percentage. So salaries will be rolled back somewhat. But this is two years from now. Nor more front ended deals with low salaries on the back end to lower the Cap hit. What's the max salary going to be in 2 years. Right now it's 20% of the Upper limit. So how far is it going to drop down?


This is why I laugh and chuckle when I read the naive opinions posted saying screw Nashville. Who cares how they do financially. I do. And it's why I said the Weber deal is bad for Hockey. All these potential changes in the CBA, aren't good. I want my team to continue to spend and put a top team on the ice. And I don't want how much they can spend to be changed. And lose the advantage of a big market team. If all teams including Nashville did better. Maybe these changes might not be needed.
coffee junkie
Joined: 02.25.2007

Jul 27 @ 6:47 PM ET
Completely shocked at what, the 8 figure cap hit? Think about it. Say that they limit the contracts to 5 year deals. Parise's new deal is worth 53M over the first 5 years. If it was a 5 year deal, his Cap hit would be 10.6M. They are going to lower the players percentage. So salaries will be rolled back somewhat. But this is two years from now. Nor more front ended deals with low salaries on the back end to lower the Cap hit. What's the max salary going to be in 2 years. Right now it's 20% of the Upper limit. So how far is it going to drop down?


This is why I laugh and chuckle when I read the naive opinions posted saying screw Nashville. Who cares how they do financially. I do. And it's why I said the Weber deal is bad for Hockey. All these potential changes in the CBA, aren't good. I want my team to continue to spend and put a top team on the ice. And I don't want how much they can spend to be changed. And lose the advantage of a big market team. If all teams including Nashville did better. Maybe these changes might not be needed.

- MJL


Guess we will have to wait and see what happens. I do want to say this, I would not spend 10.6M cap space on G right now (maybe in 2 years but I/we have no idea what the financial landscape will look like as you pointed out). G is one of the best players in the league but no player is worth that, how do you build around that? You don't. I gtg. Peace.
FLYERSROCK!
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Anyone who takes Andrew MacDonald's contract will instantly become my 3rd favourite team, SK
Joined: 09.09.2008

Jul 27 @ 6:48 PM ET
So what does everyone think of our current roster? Do you guys still think we should take a shot at Yandle/Ryan if the price is reasonable? Doan's asking price has cancelled him out on being a Flyer. That 7.5M over 3+ years would take away from Giroux, Couts, Schenn and Read money. Id have him on board for 5M over 3-4 years, but not anything more.

I still strongly believe Homer isnt done. Im sure most Flyers fans know this. Homer will get either Ryan, Yandle or Bogosian. He is NOT going to stand pat, we should all know that. We may not like it (as Bill's previous poll showed), but its Homer. He loves going NHL12. He's struck out 3 times so far, and I bet he's going to make sure it doesnt happen again.

With that being said, here are my packages...

Ryan, Visnovsky: Read, Laughton, Bourdon, 1st. Ana gets their 2nd line center, a future 3rd line center, a 2nd pairing dman, and a 1st. Good value IMO. Also bash Ryan all you want, he'd get 40 Goals with Giroux, and 80-90 points. This kid can play hockey. I'd even add in another 1st if we need to.
Yandle: Read, Cousins, Bourdon, 1st. Yandle is a 1st pairing dman. He'd make me feel a lot better aboput losing Weber. Yes he's pure offence, but last time I checked, we have 4 big, strong dmen in Coburn, Mezzy, Grossmann and Schenn. We dont have that offensive threat on the blueline unlike NYR (MDZ), Pits (Letang) do. Good trade IMO. I'd add in another 1st if we have to.
Bogosian: Bourdon, Manning, 3rd/4th. Cant really afford to give up Read ATM. Win is deep on d, and this is a good depth move for them. Bogo could thrive under a new scenery.

What do you guys think? Let the bashing begin *woohoo*
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 27 @ 6:55 PM ET
Guess we will have to wait and see what happens. I do want to say this, I would not spend 10.6M cap space on G right now (maybe in 2 years but I/we have no idea what the financial landscape will look like as you pointed out). G is one of the best players in the league but no player is worth that, how do you build around that? You don't. I gtg. Peace.
- coffee junkie


Right now the Max salary is 20% of the Upper limit. The Upper limit would have to fall below 50M for the max salary to be below 10M. It's 70.2M now. Even with the rollback, think it is going to fall that far down? He get's 3.5M this Season and 5M next Season. He sees all these player around him making 11,12,13M a Season. Think when it's his turn to re-sign, if he continues his ascension to the top, he isn't going to want to get paid? If long term front loaded deals are eliminated. What's his Cap hit going to be?

Giroux_Is_God
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CLASS DISMISSED
Joined: 12.15.2011

Jul 27 @ 6:55 PM ET
So what does everyone think of our current roster? Do you guys still think we should take a shot at Yandle/Ryan if the price is reasonable? Doan's asking price has cancelled him out on being a Flyer. That 7.5M over 3+ years would take away from Giroux, Couts, Schenn and Read money. Id have him on board for 5M over 3-4 years, but not anything more.

I still strongly believe Homer isnt done. Im sure most Flyers fans know this. Homer will get either Ryan, Yandle or Bogosian. He is NOT going to stand pat, we should all know that. We may not like it (as Bill's previous poll showed), but its Homer. He loves going NHL12. He's struck out 3 times so far, and I bet he's going to make sure it doesnt happen again.

With that being said, here are my packages...

Ryan, Visnovsky: Read, Laughton, Bourdon, 1st. Ana gets their 2nd line center, a future 3rd line center, a 2nd pairing dman, and a 1st. Good value IMO. Also bash Ryan all you want, he'd get 40 Goals with Giroux, and 80-90 points. This kid can play hockey. I'd even add in another 1st if we need to.
Yandle: Read, Cousins, Bourdon, 1st. Yandle is a 1st pairing dman. He'd make me feel a lot better aboput losing Weber. Yes he's pure offence, but last time I checked, we have 4 big, strong dmen in Coburn, Mezzy, Grossmann and Schenn. We dont have that offensive threat on the blueline unlike NYR (MDZ), Pits (Letang) do. Good trade IMO. I'd add in another 1st if we have to.
Bogosian: Bourdon, Manning, 3rd/4th. Cant really afford to give up Read ATM. Win is deep on d, and this is a good depth move for them. Bogo could thrive under a new scenery.

What do you guys think? Let the bashing begin *woohoo*

- FLYERSROCK!


I personally only do the last one, because I think it's a fleecing

I'm of the "Stand Pat!" school right now, but those trades I think are fair. Except the last one in my opinion. Don't think that's enough for Bogo.
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Jul 27 @ 6:55 PM ET
So what does everyone think of our current roster? Do you guys still think we should take a shot at Yandle/Ryan if the price is reasonable? Doan's asking price has cancelled him out on being a Flyer. That 7.5M over 3+ years would take away from Giroux, Couts, Schenn and Read money. Id have him on board for 5M over 3-4 years, but not anything more.

I still strongly believe Homer isnt done. Im sure most Flyers fans know this. Homer will get either Ryan, Yandle or Bogosian. He is NOT going to stand pat, we should all know that. We may not like it (as Bill's previous poll showed), but its Homer. He loves going NHL12. He's struck out 3 times so far, and I bet he's going to make sure it doesnt happen again.

With that being said, here are my packages...

Ryan, Visnovsky: Read, Laughton, Bourdon, 1st. Ana gets their 2nd line center, a future 3rd line center, a 2nd pairing dman, and a 1st. Good value IMO
Yandle: Read, Cousins, Bourdon, 1st. Yandle is a 1st pairing dman. He'd make me feel a lot better aboput losing Weber. Yes he's pure offence, but last time I checked, we have 4 big, strong dmen in Coburn, Mezzy, Grossmann and Schenn. We dont have that offensive threat on the blueline unlike NYR (MDZ), Pits (Letang) do. Good trade IMO. I'd add in another 1st if we have to.
Bogosian: Bourdon, Manning, 3rd/4th. Cant really afford to give up Read ATM. Win is deep on d, and this is a good depth move for them. Bogo could thrive under a new scenery.

What do you guys think? Let the bashing begin *woohoo*

- FLYERSROCK!


These are more in line with what their current team's actual demands would be:

Yandle: B. Schenn + Couturier + more
Bogosian: B. Schenn plus another asset




Giroux_Is_God
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CLASS DISMISSED
Joined: 12.15.2011

Jul 27 @ 6:56 PM ET
These are more in line with what their current team's actual demands would be:

Yandle: B. Schenn + Couturier + more
Bogosian: B. Schenn plus another asset

- bmeltzer

MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 27 @ 6:57 PM ET
So what does everyone think of our current roster? Do you guys still think we should take a shot at Yandle/Ryan if the price is reasonable? Doan's asking price has cancelled him out on being a Flyer. That 7.5M over 3+ years would take away from Giroux, Couts, Schenn and Read money. Id have him on board for 5M over 3-4 years, but not anything more.

I still strongly believe Homer isnt done. Im sure most Flyers fans know this. Homer will get either Ryan, Yandle or Bogosian. He is NOT going to stand pat, we should all know that. We may not like it (as Bill's previous poll showed), but its Homer. He loves going NHL12. He's struck out 3 times so far, and I bet he's going to make sure it doesnt happen again.

With that being said, here are my packages...

Ryan, Visnovsky: Read, Laughton, Bourdon, 1st. Ana gets their 2nd line center, a future 3rd line center, a 2nd pairing dman, and a 1st. Good value IMO. Also bash Ryan all you want, he'd get 40 Goals with Giroux, and 80-90 points. This kid can play hockey. I'd even add in another 1st if we need to.
Yandle: Read, Cousins, Bourdon, 1st. Yandle is a 1st pairing dman. He'd make me feel a lot better aboput losing Weber. Yes he's pure offence, but last time I checked, we have 4 big, strong dmen in Coburn, Mezzy, Grossmann and Schenn. We dont have that offensive threat on the blueline unlike NYR (MDZ), Pits (Letang) do. Good trade IMO. I'd add in another 1st if we have to.
Bogosian: Bourdon, Manning, 3rd/4th. Cant really afford to give up Read ATM. Win is deep on d, and this is a good depth move for them. Bogo could thrive under a new scenery.

What do you guys think? Let the bashing begin *woohoo*

- FLYERSROCK!


You honestly think you can get Bogosian for Bourdon, Manning, and a 3rd and a 4th pick. Where do I sign up?


At least get with in a few light years of reality with your proposals.
FLYERSROCK!
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Anyone who takes Andrew MacDonald's contract will instantly become my 3rd favourite team, SK
Joined: 09.09.2008

Jul 27 @ 6:57 PM ET
These are more in line with what their current team's actual demands would be:

Yandle: B. Schenn + Couturier + more
Bogosian: B. Schenn plus another asset

- bmeltzer

Bogosian would cost B. Schenn Bill? I thought Winnipeg was unhappy with his lack of progress so far? I totally took the wrong look at Bogosian haha
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 27 @ 6:58 PM ET
Bogosian would cost B. Schenn Bill? I thought Winnipeg was unhappy with his lack of progress so far? I totally took the wrong look at Bogosian haha
- FLYERSROCK!


He's a 21 year old stud defenseman.
FLYERSROCK!
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Anyone who takes Andrew MacDonald's contract will instantly become my 3rd favourite team, SK
Joined: 09.09.2008

Jul 27 @ 6:59 PM ET
You honestly think you can get Bogosian for Bourdon, Manning, and a 3rd and a 4th pick. Where do I sign up?


At least get with in a few light years of reality with your proposals.

- MJL

Sure...

Yandle for Read, Mezzy, Cousins, Laughton, 2 1sts
Bogosian for Read, Bourdon, Cousins, 2nd

Better?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 27 @ 7:00 PM ET
Sure...

Yandle for Read, Mezzy, Cousins, Laughton, 2 1sts
Bogosian for Read, Bourdon, Cousins, 2nd

Better?

- FLYERSROCK!



No, did you read Bill's reply?
FLYERSROCK!
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Anyone who takes Andrew MacDonald's contract will instantly become my 3rd favourite team, SK
Joined: 09.09.2008

Jul 27 @ 7:03 PM ET
No, did you read Bill's reply?
- MJL

Homer didn't even trade Schenn or Couts for WEBER. If Winnipeg asks for B Schenn for Bogosian Homer laughs and hangs up

Schenn and Couts are untouchables.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 27 @ 7:06 PM ET
Homer didn't even trade Schenn or Couts for WEBER. If Winnipeg asks for B Schenn for Bogosian Homer laughs and hangs up

Schenn and Couts are untouchables.

- FLYERSROCK!


Well then Yandle and Bogosian are untouchables also.
FLYERSROCK!
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Anyone who takes Andrew MacDonald's contract will instantly become my 3rd favourite team, SK
Joined: 09.09.2008

Jul 27 @ 7:07 PM ET
Also NYR got Nash for practically nothing. Schenn and Couts will NOT be traded for anyone.
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