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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Flyers Gameday: 1/24/13 vs. Rangers
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Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jan 24 @ 9:14 AM ET
but the moves Homer makes are not working
- vejim


No, they haven't worked. But the Flyers have been a contender.
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Jan 24 @ 9:15 AM ET
I'm responding to someone who said that the Flyers don't draft defensemen or goalies, by pointing out at least one other team that has taken fewer than the Flyers.

The plan B for not taking Hamilton was that the guy who had been ranked at the top of the draft class before getting mono and starting the season poorly was sitting there at number 8.

I recall very little complaining about taking Couturier over Hamilton last spring when Couturier had a vice clamp on Malkin in the playoffs. Now after a bad start he's a bad pick. Got it.

- Jsaquella

get this. i don't look at couts as a bad pick as much as a lost opp to fill a need...and btw, i said so on draft day and in subsequent posts. maybe "dougie" will be a bum, but we have to do a better job with our D or homer will be out there beating the bushes for a job. it's that simple.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jan 24 @ 9:15 AM ET
i like couts, but if you have no plan besides a big UFA Roll of the dice to get a top pairing dman- the most critical position in the game these days- it would not have been a reach to draft for need in this case. he was the next guy chosen and we always have a glut of centers. this lack of a plan on D is an org fail.
- isaiah520

Drafting D-men is a much MUCH bigger roll of the dice than trying to obtain a top pairing d-man in FA.

Hell, over the past few years we were able to get kimmo, Pronger, Meszy and Carle.. how many d-men available when we were picking have surpassed them in playing ability (aside from Pronger)
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Jan 24 @ 9:15 AM ET
i like couts, but if you have no plan besides a big UFA Roll of the dice to get a top pairing dman- the most critical position in the game these days- it would not have been a reach to draft for need in this case. he was the next guy chosen and we always have a glut of centers. this lack of a plan on D is an org fail.
- isaiah520


I think this is 100% hindsight bias. When they drafted Sean Couturier in 2011, they had Chris Pronger, Kimmo Timonen, Matt Carle, Andrej Meszaros (coming off a Ashbee Trophy season) and Braydon Coburn ALL healthy. Since then, Pronger's career ended, Timonen & Mesz got hurt and Carle left. These were all unforeseen circumstances. At the time, they had every reason to select the best available player.
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Jan 24 @ 9:16 AM ET
at least make an effort to draft D and goalie, there is nothing at the farm. Homer leans towards centers as did Bob Clarke then they try to sign other teams players
- vejim


I don't have a problem with drafting the best available player regardless of position. I did a lengthy blog about drafting goalies and D-men but the bottom line of it was that you are about equally likely to find a future star D or G beyond the first round as you are by using your first pick to "draft by organizational need".

In 1995, the Flyers used their first-round pick to take Brian Boucher. In 1997, they didn't have a first-round pick but used their first selection (2nd round) to take Jean-Marc Pelletier. In 1999, they used their first-round pick to take Maxime Ouellet. Oh, and Antero Niittymäki was a sixth rounder in 1998.

Which top goalie prospect ended up being the team's long-term solution in goal? None of them.

Which one ended being the most accomplished goalie? It's a toss-up between Boucher and Niittymäki, with the edge to Boosh for NHL accomplishments but a clear edge to Niittymäki when you weigh all of his other accolades in international play, the AHL and Finland.

The Flyers have also expended three first-round picks (Woywitka, Pitkänen, Sbisa) on defensemen since 2001 and, since the last lockout, have drafted mainly D-men and goalies with 2nd round picks when they'd have them to use: Ratchuk and Bodrov in 2006, Marshall in 2007, goaltender Stolarz in 2012.

When they haven't had 2nd round picks (which is most years, it seems) the Flyers have more often than not used their third round picks on defenseman or goalie: just looking at drafts since the last lockout that includes D-men like Bartulis, Bourdon, Bertilsson and most recently Gostisbehere and goalies Morrison and DeSerres.

So it's NOT that the Flyers don't draft plenty of D and G with fairly early picks, it's that they have had trouble nurturing them through to the NHL level.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Jan 24 @ 9:17 AM ET
you already have Giroux and Briere as your centers...I dont get the need for all these centers?
- vejim


Penguins drafted Jordan Staal in 2006 when they already had Crosby and Malkin. All 3 played a big part in their 2009 Cup win.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jan 24 @ 9:19 AM ET
get this. i don't look at couts as a bad pick as much as a lost opp to fill a need...and btw, i said so on draft day and in subsequent posts. maybe "dougie" will be a bum, but we have to do a better job with our D or homer will be out there beating the bushes for a job. it's that simple.
- isaiah520


Yes, choosing Couturier over Hamilton was a missed opportunity to fill a hole on defense. That's assuming of course that under Snider's "win now" plan that Hamilton would be allowed to develop.

It's not just the fans that get impatient with kids quickly in this town. Look at Couturier. Last spring, people wouldn't trade him for Shea Weber. Now? Trade him for PK Subban....and throw in a first rounder!
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Jan 24 @ 9:20 AM ET
you already have Giroux and Briere as your centers...I dont get the need for all these centers?
- vejim


Just because a player is drafted at a certain position, doesn't mean he'll necessarily end up playing that position for most of his NHL career. Giroux was drafted as a RW and played there most of his first two seasons. Simon Gagne was drafted as a center and played there his rookie year with the Flyers before he became a winger.

Secondly, there's no such thing as having too much organizational depth at any position. Strong depth is what enables teams to trade to fill other needs where they may not be so deep.

vejim
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: FL
Joined: 07.08.2007

Jan 24 @ 9:20 AM ET
I think this is 100% hindsight bias. When they drafted Sean Couturier in 2011, they had Chris Pronger, Kimmo Timonen, Matt Carle, Andrej Meszaros (coming off a Ashbee Trophy season) and Braydon Coburn ALL healthy. Since then, Pronger's career ended, Timonen & Mesz got hurt and Carle left. These were all unforeseen circumstances. At the time, they had every reason to select the best available player.
- NickTheKid87

but the farm is not prepared for these injuries, etc
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Jan 24 @ 9:23 AM ET
you already have Giroux and Briere as your centers...I dont get the need for all these centers?
- vejim

they rated couts higher than hamilton, i get that. but did they rate him THAT much higher to ignore a crying need? that was my point on draft day and since then. if they made a move like schenn for bogo or similar, i'd see more logic to their thinking. i think homer tends to box himself in sometimes...too often.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 24 @ 9:23 AM ET
whom have the flyers drafted who turned out to show top flight promise and what round did they take him? that's the issue here and when you pass on a guy like hamilton, you'd better have plan B given their org makeup and the landscape on D.
- isaiah520



It's realy early, but it looks like they made a good pick in Laughton. Their philosophy is to pick who they feel is the best player on the board. We know they need to improve the talent pipeline at defense.
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Jan 24 @ 9:24 AM ET
Yes, choosing Couturier over Hamilton was a missed opportunity to fill a hole on defense. That's assuming of course that under Snider's "win now" plan that Hamilton would be allowed to develop.

It's not just the fans that get impatient with kids quickly in this town. Look at Couturier. Last spring, people wouldn't trade him for Shea Weber. Now? Trade him for PK Subban....and throw in a first rounder!

- Jsaquella


Let's assume both Couturier and Hamilton max out their potential. While it's still harder to find a top-pairing D than a forward, it's not exactly like Selke Trophy caliber centers who also have Couturier's hands around the net are a dime a dozen.

Couturier is off to a slow start this season; though I thought he settled in during Jersey game after his rough first shift. Actually, I think that was one of the few positives from the NJ game. But people are pretty much down on everyone with the tough start.

Couturier's upside and typical defensive play level are exactly the same as they were all along. Three games doesn't change that.


johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Jan 24 @ 9:25 AM ET
It's realy early, but it looks like they made a good pick in Laughton. Their philosophy is to pick who they feel is the best player on the board. We know they need to improve the talent pipeline at defense.
- MJL


I don't think there is any way Laughton goes back to junior at this point.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jan 24 @ 9:25 AM ET
but the farm is not prepared for these injuries, etc
- vejim


Exactly how many teams have farm systems that will replace 3 NHL top four level defensemen over the space of one season? My guess is none of them.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Jan 24 @ 9:25 AM ET
but the farm is not prepared for these injuries, etc
- vejim


So you're not really looking for top flight prospects but depth players then?
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Jan 24 @ 9:26 AM ET
Drafting D-men is a much MUCH bigger roll of the dice than trying to obtain a top pairing d-man in FA.

Hell, over the past few years we were able to get kimmo, Pronger, Meszy and Carle.. how many d-men available when we were picking have surpassed them in playing ability (aside from Pronger)

- jak521

you kill your cap with constant FA commitments. we need to draft these guys and develop them or we are (frank)ed over time. Carlson is one example.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 24 @ 9:26 AM ET
going into a season w/ a pronger coming off of multiple surgeries, a fading kimmo and the carle/coburn contract questions begged for a solid plan. i said so at the time and we see what's happened. failure.
- isaiah520



Pronger, Timonen, and Carle, Coburn, and Meszaros was a pretty solid defense. Real easy to sit back after the fact and Monday mornng QB. Look at the defenseman that Holmgren has added in his tenure. Timonen, Coburn, Meszaros, Carle, Pronger, Grossmann. Seems like he knows how to add defenseman.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jan 24 @ 9:27 AM ET
Let's assume both Couturier and Hamilton max out their potential. While it's still harder to find a top-pairing D than a forward, it's not exactly like Selke Trophy caliber centers who also have Couturier's hands around the net are a dime a dozen.

Couturier is off to a slow start this season; though I thought he settled in during Jersey game after his rough first shift. Actually, I think that was one of the few positives from the NJ game. But people are pretty much down on everyone with the tough start.

Couturier's upside and typical defensive play level are exactly the same as they were all along. Three games doesn't change that.

- bmeltzer


It will change as soon as Hamilton hits the inevitable rough patch and Couturier straightens out his game.
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Jan 24 @ 9:28 AM ET
I don't have a problem with drafting the best available player regardless of position. I did a lengthy blog about drafting goalies and D-men but the bottom line of it was that you are about equally likely to find a future star D or G beyond the first round as you are by using your first pick to "draft by organizational need".

In 1995, the Flyers used their first-round pick to take Brian Boucher. In 1997, they didn't have a first-round pick but used their first selection (2nd round) to take Jean-Marc Pelletier. In 1999, they used their first-round pick to take Maxime Ouellet. Oh, and Antero Niittymäki was a sixth rounder in 1998.

Which top goalie prospect ended up being the team's long-term solution in goal? None of them.

Which one ended being the most accomplished goalie? It's a toss-up between Boucher and Niittymäki, with the edge to Boosh for NHL accomplishments but a clear edge to Niittymäki when you weigh all of his other accolades in international play, the AHL and Finland.

The Flyers have also expended three first-round picks (Woywitka, Pitkänen, Sbisa) on defensemen since 2001 and, since the last lockout, have drafted mainly D-men and goalies with 2nd round picks when they'd have them to use: Ratchuk and Bodrov in 2006, Marshall in 2007, goaltender Stolarz in 2007.

When they haven't had 2nd round picks (which is most years, it seems) the Flyers have more often than not used their third round picks on defenseman or goalie: just looking at drafts since the last lockout that includes D-men like Bartulis, Bourdon, Bertilsson and most recently Gostisbehere and goalies Morrison and DeSerres.

So it's NOT that the Flyers don't draft plenty of D and G with fairly early picks, it's that they have had trouble nurturing them through to the NHL level.

- bmeltzer

Bill, this is an org fail and it needs to be addressed at the scouting level. any reason we can't "steal" some of these guys that have a good track record uncovering dmen?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 24 @ 9:29 AM ET
you already have Giroux and Briere as your centers...I dont get the need for all these centers?
- vejim



Briere is what 36?
vejim
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: FL
Joined: 07.08.2007

Jan 24 @ 9:29 AM ET
So you're not really looking for top flight prospects but depth players then?
- NickTheKid87

I am not a GM...but the flyers offense is mostly centers and the D is mostly slow
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Jan 24 @ 9:29 AM ET
Yes, choosing Couturier over Hamilton was a missed opportunity to fill a hole on defense. That's assuming of course that under Snider's "win now" plan that Hamilton would be allowed to develop.

It's not just the fans that get impatient with kids quickly in this town. Look at Couturier. Last spring, people wouldn't trade him for Shea Weber. Now? Trade him for PK Subban....and throw in a first rounder!

- Jsaquella

and there is the crux of the problem
vejim
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: FL
Joined: 07.08.2007

Jan 24 @ 9:30 AM ET
Briere is what 36?
- MJL

well Homer signed him, right?
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Jan 24 @ 9:31 AM ET
I am not a GM...but the flyers offense is mostly centers and the D is mostly slow
- vejim


Hartnell, Voracek, Read and Simmonds aren't centers. Schenn has been playing wing as well. And yes the D is slow but not for lack of trying to make it good (i.e. the Weber offer sheet, pursuit of Suter, Carle's unexpected departure)
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Jan 24 @ 9:31 AM ET
It's realy early, but it looks like they made a good pick in Laughton. Their philosophy is to pick who they feel is the best player on the board. We know they need to improve the talent pipeline at defense.
- MJL

there has to be a better mechanism for addressing this issue. on this i'm sure we agree.
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