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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: The Schenns, Five-on-Five Play
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jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Jan 31 @ 10:52 PM ET
It's not cherry picking anything. That is clearly showing that Carle was a plus player in more games then any other player in the NHL that Season. And that Season, Matt Carle was 6th in the NHL with a +30. So using the stat the way you want to use it. That says that Matt Carle was great defensively. In fact he was elite defensively by your standards of applying the stat.
- MJL


Incorrect. I see no stats of his teammates. If Carle was a +30 and his teammats were all inferior then Carle was absolutely was more adventagious on offense than a hinderous on defense. This year I can say its early, but Carle is not doing as great as everyone is saying he is based on his poor +/- comparative to his teammates.
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Jan 31 @ 10:54 PM ET
well at least i can watch the sharks on tv they're a good team
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Jan 31 @ 10:56 PM ET
All things being equal, I'll take a high minute, physical shut down defenseman over a goal scoring Winger anytime. Defense is a far more important position then Wing. They're all important, but defense is more important. If both meet their potential, then I'll take the Flyers side.
- MJL

jvr meeting his potential is a game changer...ill take that anytime...esp on a team hurting for finishers. in fact, right now the flyers only have one player who is proven in that regard and that's briere. everybody else is coming off a career year.

if luke plays well, that's a piece we'll def need as we rebuild our d. but if a trade/signing had been made for a dynamic puck mover, loss of scoring wouldn't sting as bad.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 31 @ 10:56 PM ET
Incorrect. I see no stats of his teammates. If Carle was a +30 and his teammats were all inferior then Carle was absolutely was more adventagious on offense than a hinderous on defense. This year I can say its early, but Carle is not doing as great as everyone is saying he is based on his poor +/- comparative to his teammates.
- jstross


What's incorrect? Are you taking into consideration how a player is used? What the matchups are. Offensive and defensive zone starts? All kinds of factors involved.

The only thing +/- tells you is if a player is on the ice for more goals for or against. That's it. Using it in any other way, is interpreting the stat the wrong way. It can't by itself determine if a player is a good or poor defender.

In that Season, Meszaros matched Carle with a +30. Timonen was a +11. Coburn was a +15. Pronger was a +7 in 50 games. So that means that Carle is a better defender then Timonen? +30 to +11!

Here is the stats of his teammates from that Season.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/pl...lusMinus&viewName=summary
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 31 @ 10:59 PM ET
jvr meeting his potential is a game changer...ill take that anytime...esp on a team hurting for finishers. in fact, right now the flyers only have one player who is proven in that regard and that's briere. everybody else is coming off a career year.

if luke plays well, that's a piece we'll def need as we rebuild our d. but if a trade/signing had been made for a dynamic puck mover, loss of scoring wouldn't sting as bad.

- isaiah520


Stopping goals is every bit as important, as scoring them. And shutting down top players on the opposition, is most definitely a game changer. And if Schenn meets his potential as a shut down defender. Then it's a great trade for the Flyers. You just have your mind made up before they even played a game, that it was a bad deal. Because they didn't get the dynamic puck mover that you want. This team isn't having a problem with scoring goals because they traded JVR.
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Jan 31 @ 11:00 PM ET
+/- can be a very misleading stat imo. i find it more useful as a corroborating stat combined with others as opposed to letting it stand on it's own.
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Jan 31 @ 11:01 PM ET
Stopping goals is every bit as important, as scoring them. And shutting down top players on the opposition, is most definitely a game changer. And if Schenn meets his potential as a shut down defender. Then it's a great trade for the Flyers. You just have your mind made up before they even played a game, that it was a bad deal. Because they didn't get the dynamic puck mover that you want. This team isn't having a problem with scoring goals because they traded JVR.
- MJL

that's fine, we disagree....but it's a fact that we are having trouble scoring goals.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 31 @ 11:04 PM ET
that's fine, we disagree....but it's a fact that we are having trouble scoring goals.
- isaiah520


Yes, they are having trouble scoring goals as a team. JVR still being here wouldn't miraculously cure that.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 31 @ 11:05 PM ET
+/- can be a very misleading stat imo. i find it more useful as a corroborating stat combined with others as opposed to letting it stand on it's own.
- isaiah520


Exactly!
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Jan 31 @ 11:06 PM ET
haha yakupov got suckered by gomez
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jan 31 @ 11:29 PM ET
Carle's +/- isnt as good as some of his teammates. But if you look at one very key stat Corsi Relative to Quality of Competition, he's got the highest rating on the team. That means Carle is going up, regularly, against the best opposing players.

+/- doesn't just mean defense, it also accounts for goals scored by your team at even strength. A great defensive defenseman could be a minus player, because he's facing the other team's top players and not on the ice when his team is scoring.

The other important stat is Carle's zone starts. 60% of the time, Carle's shift starts when the puck is in his own end. That's a lot of heavy lifting.

You can't simpl toss out +/- as a stat without looking at other numbers. It's far too subjective to really tell you anything. It's not that you can't use stats. But using a pamphlet when you can easily access War & Peace, you're missing a lot of the story
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Jan 31 @ 11:41 PM ET
holy poop logan couture is sick!
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Jan 31 @ 11:42 PM ET
now the big pavelski scores
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jan 31 @ 11:42 PM ET
holy poop logan couture is sick!
- 2Real


Edmonton's defense makes the Flyers look good
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Jan 31 @ 11:43 PM ET
Edmonton's defense makes the Flyers look good
- Jsaquella

doesn't take away from the fact couture is lethal
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jan 31 @ 11:44 PM ET
doesn't take away from the fact couture is lethal
- 2Real


No, he's a damned good player. I was referring more to Pavelski's goal
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Jan 31 @ 11:46 PM ET
No, he's a damned good player. I was referring more to Pavelski's goal
- Jsaquella

oh yea that was dumb dumb dumb
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jan 31 @ 11:50 PM ET
oh yea that was dumb dumb dumb
- 2Real


Oilers games always seem to be entertaining
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Jan 31 @ 11:58 PM ET
Oilers games always seem to be entertaining
- Jsaquella

I love Sharks games although I might be biased living out here. The love for the Sharks in the bay area is great.
Richieattack18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Girouxsalem
Joined: 07.13.2010

Feb 1 @ 12:08 AM ET
jvr meeting his potential is a game changer...ill take that anytime...esp on a team hurting for finishers. in fact, right now the flyers only have one player who is proven in that regard and that's briere. everybody else is coming off a career year.

if luke plays well, that's a piece we'll def need as we rebuild our d. but if a trade/signing had been made for a dynamic puck mover, loss of scoring wouldn't sting as bad.

- isaiah520

Jvr will get hurt and then be useless and slow again.
Richieattack18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Girouxsalem
Joined: 07.13.2010

Feb 1 @ 12:10 AM ET
that's fine, we disagree....but it's a fact that we are having trouble scoring goals.
- isaiah520

JVR would be lollygagging everywhere if he was still on the team. Didn't show much heart here, needed to go.
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Feb 1 @ 12:11 AM ET
JVR would be lollygagging everywhere if he was still on the team. Didn't show much heart here, needed to go.
- Richieattack18

happier with Schenn hope he pans out
BringBack25
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: deep lurk
Joined: 01.03.2007

Feb 1 @ 12:20 AM ET
Carle's +/- isnt as good as some of his teammates. But if you look at one very key stat Corsi Relative to Quality of Competition, he's got the highest rating on the team. That means Carle is going up, regularly, against the best opposing players.

+/- doesn't just mean defense, it also accounts for goals scored by your team at even strength. A great defensive defenseman could be a minus player, because he's facing the other team's top players and not on the ice when his team is scoring.

The other important stat is Carle's zone starts. 60% of the time, Carle's shift starts when the puck is in his own end. That's a lot of heavy lifting.

You can't simpl toss out +/- as a stat without looking at other numbers. It's far too subjective to really tell you anything. It's not that you can't use stats. But using a pamphlet when you can easily access War & Peace, you're missing a lot of the story

- Jsaquella


Maybe this will help...

OrangeBlack27
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: i do, mike, PA
Joined: 06.29.2006

Feb 1 @ 12:45 AM ET
Carle's +/- isnt as good as some of his teammates. But if you look at one very key stat Corsi Relative to Quality of Competition, he's got the highest rating on the team. That means Carle is going up, regularly, against the best opposing players.

+/- doesn't just mean defense, it also accounts for goals scored by your team at even strength. A great defensive defenseman could be a minus player, because he's facing the other team's top players and not on the ice when his team is scoring.

The other important stat is Carle's zone starts. 60% of the time, Carle's shift starts when the puck is in his own end. That's a lot of heavy lifting.

You can't simpl toss out +/- as a stat without looking at other numbers. It's far too subjective to really tell you anything. It's not that you can't use stats. But using a pamphlet when you can easily access War & Peace, you're missing a lot of the story

- Jsaquella


PDO is interesting too (short version for those unfamiliar: on-ice save % PLUS on-ice shooting %, which regresses very heavily to the mean of 1000 over time, which is almost too easy to seem real, but it's true. see here:http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=2996 if a player's PDO is over 1000, he's having some pretty good luck, less than 1000, he's hard on his luck).

tampa's team PDO is insane right now. brian lee is lowest on the team at 1021. sami salo is +10 thanks in large part to a 1175 PDO
JoeRussomanno
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: me bitter? F-no i think it's hilarious
Joined: 12.14.2011

Feb 1 @ 12:52 AM ET
Awesome blog, Bill.
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