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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Rout on the Island, O'Reilly Rumor
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NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Feb 19 @ 9:18 AM ET
I'd want any deal built on Couturier for O'Reilly to include a defenseman coming back to Philly. You add Erik Johnson coming back and it might work out. You get a "replacement" for Couturier and a good young defenseman.

It would depend highly on what other pieces were involved.

Also, got to remember, the Flyers asked about O'Reilly and the Avalanche countered with Couturier. Doesn't mean that it's the terms of the trade.

- Jsaquella


I'd ask for Couturier too if I was Colorado.
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Feb 19 @ 9:18 AM ET
I agree. That line looked sharp but the Isles looked incredibly flat as well whiched helped.
- NickTheKid87


Yep. Right now I'm hoping what happened after shellacking FLA doesn't happen again.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Feb 19 @ 9:19 AM ET
Yep. Right now I'm hoping what happened after shellacking FLA doesn't happen again.
- Scoob


If Giroux keeps up his Giroux-like play, they'll have no trouble finding offense.
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Feb 19 @ 9:19 AM ET
The win yesterday was different from all the others because Claude Giroux looked like Claude Giroux and that, my friends, is a beautiful thing.
- NickTheKid87


That he did. He needs to keep it going.
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Feb 19 @ 9:21 AM ET
what about couts for Oreily plus a first?
- Philly1980


I'd want O'Reilly and a proven roster defenseman for Couturier-plus.

Unfortunately, with the teams' respective cap situations and rosters being what they are, the Flyers would be the ones needing to shed salary.

So I don't see quite the ideal trade fit here.


Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Feb 19 @ 9:21 AM ET
what about couts for Oreily plus a first?
- Philly1980


I'd want more than a first. Colorado has some good young defensemen. Add them to the mix over a draft pick where you're not sure what you're getting.
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Feb 19 @ 9:22 AM ET
O'Reilly shot 6.5 percent because he has pretty bad hands from a shooting standpoint. He can't elevate pucks and get them on the net and he struggles to finish in close. In fact, he's NEVER been a good finisher at any level and I don't see him turning into one. He is, however, a pretty good passer so he can be a 50-point guy on the strength of his assist totals.
- bmeltzer


I agree that goal-scoring is not his strong point, but he's an exceptional playmaker. He has 40-50 assist potential to him. Add 15-20 goals, and you have the potential for 70 points in my opinion.

I view him as a poor man's Datsyuk.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Feb 19 @ 9:23 AM ET
I'd ask for Couturier too if I was Colorado.
- NickTheKid87


Absolutely. Shoot for the moon before accepting a piece of Skylab
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Feb 19 @ 9:23 AM ET
Yeah, no thanks. Rather have Coburn than Erik Johnson.
- bradleyc4

EJ is younger w/ a better contract and still a possibility he could tap into his offensive promise. coby seems more durable.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Feb 19 @ 9:23 AM ET
what about couts for Oreily plus a first?
- Philly1980


Uh. If its this years first, I absolutely do it there is a great chance it's a top 3 pick. They never would. I don't get why the flyers would be interested in oreilly. Erik johnson doesn't do much for me. Just stay the damn course for once.
Philly1980
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.30.2011

Feb 19 @ 9:24 AM ET
I'd want O'Reilly and a proven roster defenseman for Couturier-plus.

Unfortunately, with the teams' respective cap situations and rosters being what they are, the Flyers would be the ones needing to shed salary.

So I don't see quite the ideal trade fit here.

- bmeltzer



That first could potentially be a top ten pick....
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Feb 19 @ 9:25 AM ET
Exactly, JS. If there's more coming back where the Flyers end up being a better team for it, then you do it.

But as a one-for-one trade, it's not even worth talking about from a hockey or cap standpoint. Again, I hold to the Jordan Staal vs. RJ Umberger (or long-term Joe Nieuwendyk vs. Rod Brind'Amour pipedream scenario). Either which way, I'm higher on Couturier's upside than O'Reilly's and the thought of spending MORE to get O'Reilly makes said idea a non-starter.

- bmeltzer


I like O'Reilly a little more than you do, but again, I think Couturier has a higher ceiling and obviously the cap implications in the short term are a major issue. Paying O'Reilly the $5mm per year he reportedly wants is a 500% increase in cap hit.

I don't think O'Reilly is a $5mm a year guy, either.
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Feb 19 @ 9:25 AM ET
This team has more than enough youth on the forward lines. They don't need O'Reilly.

If they are gonna make a deal, I want it to be for a veteran top 6 forward who can had without hearing the words "Sean Couturier" floated.
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Feb 19 @ 9:27 AM ET
I'd ask for Couturier too if I was Colorado.
- NickTheKid87


As would I, but I'd also be willing to discuss Brayden Schenn.

But here's the thing. Schenn versus O'Reilly is an interesting debate because O'Reilly is much better defensively than Schenn (not even close right now) but Schenn is better offensively (hell, he's up to 13 points in 16 games even with his awful start to the season) and more physical.

But if you have Couturier as your guy to play against other teams' top centers, you don't really need O'Reilly.

In the end, I'm happier simply keeping Couturier and B. Schenn, realizing they are still developing. Building a blueline needs to be the plan, so unless there would be a long-term blueline upgrade coming in addition to O'Reilly, I'd just as soon see some other team trade for O'Reilly.

NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Feb 19 @ 9:27 AM ET
I like O'Reilly a little more than you do, but again, I think Couturier has a higher ceiling and obviously the cap implications in the short term are a major issue. Paying O'Reilly the $5mm per year he reportedly wants is a 500% increase in cap hit.

I don't think O'Reilly is a $5mm a year guy, either.

- Jsaquella


It baffles me that he's asking for $5 million. He had 55 points in 81 games. Not bad but when you look at other guys with similar numbers at a similar age, they're not making close to $5 million. He's a good two-way player but he's also one year removed from having 26 points in 74 games.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Feb 19 @ 9:28 AM ET
As would I, but I'd also be willing to discuss Brayden Schenn.

But here's the thing. Schenn versus O'Reilly is an interesting debate because O'Reilly is much better defensively than Schenn (not even close right now) but Schenn is better offensively (hell, he's up to 13 points in 16 games even with his awful start to the season) and more physical.

But if you have Couturier as your guy to play against other teams' top centers, you don't really need O'Reilly.

In the end, I'm happier simply keeping Couturier and B. Schenn, realizing they are still developing. Building a blueline needs to be the plan, so unless there would be a long-term blueline upgrade coming in addition to O'Reilly, I'd just as soon see some other team trade for O'Reilly.

- bmeltzer


Agree wholeheartedly in regards to BSchenn. I'd rather have Schenn's offensive upside and Couturier's defensive ability than O'Reilly and Couts.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Feb 19 @ 9:32 AM ET
As would I, but I'd also be willing to discuss Brayden Schenn.

But here's the thing. Schenn versus O'Reilly is an interesting debate because O'Reilly is much better defensively than Schenn (not even close right now) but Schenn is better offensively (hell, he's up to 13 points in 16 games even with his awful start to the season) and more physical.

But if you have Couturier as your guy to play against other teams' top centers, you don't really need O'Reilly.

In the end, I'm happier simply keeping Couturier and B. Schenn, realizing they are still developing. Building a blueline needs to be the plan, so unless there would be a long-term blueline upgrade coming in addition to O'Reilly, I'd just as soon see some other team trade for O'Reilly.

- bmeltzer


Keeping Couturier, and trading Schenn for O'Reilly gives you a redundancy. Couturier is already a shut down guy with offensive ability, and O'Reilly might end up behind Couts when Couturier blossoms offensively, so then you have a third center with a big price tag.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Feb 19 @ 9:33 AM ET
It baffles me that he's asking for $5 million. He had 55 points in 81 games. Not bad but when you look at other guys with similar numbers at a similar age, they're not making close to $5 million. He's a good two-way player but he's also one year removed from having 26 points in 74 games.
- NickTheKid87


Maybe it's more of a product of wanting to leave Colorado?
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Feb 19 @ 9:33 AM ET
It baffles me that he's asking for $5 million. He had 55 points in 81 games. Not bad but when you look at other guys with similar numbers at a similar age, they're not making close to $5 million. He's a good two-way player but he's also one year removed from having 26 points in 74 games.
- NickTheKid87


I'm not baffled he asked for it, I'm baffled it's led to a holdout. Sign a short term bridge deal, tell the team you want to be traded and then see if they can move you.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Feb 19 @ 9:38 AM ET
My buddy just summed it up for me, perfectly.

He said that he views it like the Primeau-Brind'Amour trade.

He says, you don't trade Couturier for a malcontent, just like you don't trade Brind'Amour for a malcontent.

And no, it wasn't MoAT
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Feb 19 @ 9:39 AM ET
Geez, Brian Strait broke his ankle on that play away from the puck yesterday.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Feb 19 @ 9:39 AM ET
I'm not baffled he asked for it, I'm baffled it's led to a holdout. Sign a short term bridge deal, tell the team you want to be traded and then see if they can move you.
- Jsaquella


Logan Couture signed a 2 year deal at $2.875 per AFTER his 32 goal, 56 point rookie season, not to mention guys like Oshie and Backes among others who make less than $5 million per.
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Feb 19 @ 9:40 AM ET
I like O'Reilly a little more than you do, but again, I think Couturier has a higher ceiling and obviously the cap implications in the short term are a major issue. Paying O'Reilly the $5mm per year he reportedly wants is a 500% increase in cap hit.

I don't think O'Reilly is a $5mm a year guy, either.

- Jsaquella


The funny thing is that I DO like O'Reilly. There's nothing wrong with being a 50-60 point player who is also very good defensively.

All I'm saying about O'Reilly is that he gives every indication of being a player whose offensive season last year will pretty much become his norm, and don't expect to see much improvement beyond that despite his age.

The Umberger offensive comparison is actually meant as a compliment, not as damning with faint praise. RJ usually churns out 50+ point seasons with pretty good regularity consider where and with whom he plays. He'll score a little more but assist a little less than O'Reilly but the point totals ROR will produce figure to be similar.

Again, I go back to rule of thumb for projecting offensive development: Offensive dominance in junior hockey is no guarantee of NHL offense BUT the lack of junior offensive dominance (and being a shade under a point-per-game is not too impressive for a future NHLer) is far more often than not a good predictor that the player will probably never be more offensively than about where O'Reilly already is.



Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Feb 19 @ 9:41 AM ET
Geez, Brian Strait broke his ankle on that play away from the puck yesterday.
- bradleyc4


Yeah, it's a tough luck injury. He had been playing well for them.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Feb 19 @ 9:41 AM ET
Maybe it's more of a product of wanting to leave Colorado?
- Just5


Could be. I mean this whole thing is ridiculous. Jamie Benn signed for $5.25 mill per and he's much better than O'Reilly.
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