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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Rout on the Island, O'Reilly Rumor
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NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Feb 19 @ 9:41 AM ET
Geez, Brian Strait broke his ankle on that play away from the puck yesterday.
- bradleyc4


That was such a goofy looking play. Sucks for Brian.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Feb 19 @ 9:41 AM ET
Logan Couture signed a 2 year deal at $2.875 per AFTER his 32 goal, 56 point rookie season, not to mention guys like Oshie and Backes among others who make less than $5 million per.
- NickTheKid87


Yeah, O'Reilly obviously feels that he can cash in after a good season. Got to admit it makes me wary.
flyers4487
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Jamison, PA
Joined: 02.15.2007

Feb 19 @ 9:42 AM ET
Exactly, JS. If there's more coming back where the Flyers end up being a better team for it, then you do it.

But as a one-for-one trade, it's not even worth talking about from a hockey or cap standpoint. Again, I hold to the Jordan Staal vs. RJ Umberger (or long-term Joe Nieuwendyk vs. Rod Brind'Amour pipedream scenario). Either which way, I'm higher on Couturier's upside than O'Reilly's and the thought of spending MORE to get O'Reilly makes said idea a non-starter.

- bmeltzer

I just dont want to make a panic move for a stop gap d man... however im afraid thats going to be what happens, considering what this summers market looks like.

Last year was our shot to land a "franchise d man". Id almost be willing to wait a year or to and see what shakes out rather then making a panic move.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Feb 19 @ 9:44 AM ET
Yeah, O'Reilly obviously feels that he can cash in after a good season. Got to admit it makes me wary.
- Jsaquella


Any player like that I want nothing to do with. Even if they have a good upside. Problems could arise later on so it's best just to stay away.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Feb 19 @ 9:45 AM ET
I just dont want to make a panic move for a stop gap d man... however im afraid thats going to be what happens, considering what this summers market looks like.

Last year was our shot to land a "franchise d man". Id almost be willing to wait a year or to and see what shakes out rather then making a panic move.

- flyers4487


If you could get Erik Johnson, that's a different story.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Feb 19 @ 9:45 AM ET
The funny thing is that I DO like O'Reilly. There's nothing wrong with being a 50-60 point player who is also very good defensively.

All I'm saying about O'Reilly is that he gives every indication of being a player whose offensive season last year will pretty much become his norm, and don't expect to see much improvement beyond that despite his age.

The Umberger offensive comparison is actually meant as a compliment, not as damning with faint praise. RJ usually churns out 50+ point seasons with pretty good regularity consider where and with whom he plays. He'll score a little more but assist a little less than O'Reilly but the point totals ROR will produce figure to be similar.

Again, I go back to rule of thumb for projecting offensive development: Offensive dominance in junior hockey is no guarantee of NHL offense BUT the lack of junior offensive dominance (and being a shade under a point-per-game is not too impressive for a future NHLer) is far more often than not a good predictor that the player will probably never be more offensively than about where O'Reilly already is.

- bmeltzer


I understand where you're coming from. I wouldn't take an Umberger comparison as a negative. RJ has had a good run, albeit with an awful team.

A better way to phrase it might be I see O'Reilly as a rich man's Umberger. It's definitely a fair comparison to make, though.

The desire to get paid has me a bit wary of O'Reilly anyhow. I don't begrudge him seeking the money, but it seems he thinks one good season makes him a star.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Feb 19 @ 9:48 AM ET
Any player like that I want nothing to do with. Even if they have a good upside. Problems could arise later on so it's best just to stay away.
- NickTheKid87


Well, here's another factor. You bring in O'Reilly, and sign him for $5mm. How expensive did Bryaden Schenn get based on that? How about Read? How about Giroux?

Giroux's going to get paid, regardless. I think there's very little chance he doesn't get a franchise player deal next summer. But Schenn and Read would definitely be affected with a big deal for an O'Reilly.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Feb 19 @ 9:49 AM ET
I understand where you're coming from. I wouldn't take an Umberger comparison as a negative. RJ has had a good run, albeit with an awful team.

A better way to phrase it might be I see O'Reilly as a rich man's Umberger. It's definitely a fair comparison to make, though.

The desire to get paid has me a bit wary of O'Reilly anyhow. I don't begrudge him seeking the money, but it seems he thinks one good season makes him a star.

- Jsaquella


If it was ROR going to Colorado and saying "5 million bones please" and the Avs brass retorted with a strong "No dice" and then continued this dance for a week or so before signing him to a 2 year, $2.5 million per deal or something, I wouldn't fault ROR. But this is just insanity. No way he shouldn't be playing right now.
flyers4487
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Jamison, PA
Joined: 02.15.2007

Feb 19 @ 9:50 AM ET
If you could get Erik Johnson, that's a different story.
- NickTheKid87

You think hes worth it? Id be scared what we would have to give up in add to couts and how much of a cap hit he and o rilley would be
flyers4487
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Jamison, PA
Joined: 02.15.2007

Feb 19 @ 9:50 AM ET
I understand where you're coming from. I wouldn't take an Umberger comparison as a negative. RJ has had a good run, albeit with an awful team.

A better way to phrase it might be I see O'Reilly as a rich man's Umberger. It's definitely a fair comparison to make, though.

The desire to get paid has me a bit wary of O'Reilly anyhow. I don't begrudge him seeking the money, but it seems he thinks one good season makes him a star.

- Jsaquella

I agree, you sign the bear min deal to get you to UFA and then you leave town.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Feb 19 @ 9:51 AM ET
Well, here's another factor. You bring in O'Reilly, and sign him for $5mm. How expensive did Bryaden Schenn get based on that? How about Read? How about Giroux?

Giroux's going to get paid, regardless. I think there's very little chance he doesn't get a franchise player deal next summer. But Schenn and Read would definitely be affected with a big deal for an O'Reilly.

- Jsaquella


Agreed. G's getting at least $7 million per regardless and Schenn looks like he might be in line for something around $5 million as well. Read could fetch $4 million the way he's been playing.
Marc D
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: best smile, 14 without fake tees
Joined: 03.28.2008

Feb 19 @ 9:52 AM ET
Bill
Excellent summary on O'Reilly.

I liked moving Simmonds off the Giroux line yesterday.
I love Wayne and think he is a near perfect fit in his role for the Flyers, but with Giroux he was getting a ton of great chances and not finishing enough of them.

Also getting Coburn back with Grossmann was great, a move I have wanted to see all season.

Was McGinn a healthy scratch? He has been banged up a lot recently.

Gusty should get a long look now, hopefully. He looked confident with his decisions and adds some needed speed.

I know the players need to execute, but Lavi made some good moves yesterday and deserves a little credit.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Feb 19 @ 9:53 AM ET
You think hes worth it? Id be scared what we would have to give up in add to couts and how much of a cap hit he and o rilley would be
- flyers4487


He's already a legit top 4 defenseman with franchise or at least #1 dman potential. Even if he doesn't turn into a perennial All-Star, you still get a good, young, two-way defenseman.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Feb 19 @ 9:53 AM ET
There are team who need centers MUCH more than the Flyers. I can't see them making any deal with Colorado, nor do I think Colorado has any intention of moving Johnson

NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Feb 19 @ 9:54 AM ET
Bill
Excellent summary on O'Reilly.

I liked moving Simmonds off the Giroux line yesterday.
I love Wayne and think he is a near perfect fit in his role for the Flyers, but with Giroux he was getting a ton of great chances and not finishing enough of them.

Also getting Coburn back with Grossmann was great, a move I have wanted to see all season.

Was McGinn a healthy scratch? He has been banged up a lot recently.

Gusty should get a long look now, hopefully. He looked confident with his decisions and adds some needed speed.

I know the players need to execute, but Lavi made some good moves yesterday and deserves a little credit.

- Marc D


BUT HE SCRATCHED MCGINN!!!


I really liked Gustafsson yesterday. Who knows? Maybe he's the answer to our problems in one way or another.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Feb 19 @ 9:54 AM ET
You think hes worth it? Id be scared what we would have to give up in add to couts and how much of a cap hit he and o rilley would be
- flyers4487


That's the thing, you have to toss in Simmonds or Voracek, which means that you'd need more from the Avalanche.

Maybe you go Couts, Simmonds or Voracek for O'Reilly, Jamie McGinn and Johnson or sub in a couple picks instead of McGinn...Even that seems off. Just spitballing here off the top of my head.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Feb 19 @ 9:55 AM ET
There are team who need centers MUCH more than the Flyers. I can't see them making any deal with Colorado, nor do I think Colorado has any intention of moving Johnson
- BiggE


I would be shocked if they moved Johnson. Just as shocked as if the Flyers moved Couts. Wouldn't hurt to kick them tires though!!
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Feb 19 @ 9:55 AM ET
There's also talk about O'Reilly being disenchanted with the organization because he was passed over the captaincy (given to Landeskog). So it's apparently more than just about money.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Feb 19 @ 9:55 AM ET
BUT HE SCRATCHED MCGINN!!!


I really liked Gustafsson yesterday. Who knows? Maybe he's the answer to our problems in one way or another.

- NickTheKid87


That bugged me, but you can't argue the results.
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Feb 19 @ 9:55 AM ET
Bill
Excellent summary on O'Reilly.

I liked moving Simmonds off the Giroux line yesterday.
I love Wayne and think he is a near perfect fit in his role for the Flyers, but with Giroux he was getting a ton of great chances and not finishing enough of them.

Also getting Coburn back with Grossmann was great, a move I have wanted to see all season.

Was McGinn a healthy scratch? He has been banged up a lot recently.

Gusty should get a long look now, hopefully. He looked confident with his decisions and adds some needed speed.

I know the players need to execute, but Lavi made some good moves yesterday and deserves a little credit.

- Marc D

maybe gusty is a poor man's enstrom...we could hope
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Feb 19 @ 9:56 AM ET
That's the thing, you have to toss in Simmonds or Voracek, which means that you'd need more from the Avalanche.

Maybe you go Couts, Simmonds or Voracek for O'Reilly, Jamie McGinn and Johnson or sub in a couple picks instead of McGinn...Even that seems off. Just spitballing here off the top of my head.

- Jsaquella


Need Jamie McGinn for the gimmick level of having 2 sets of bros.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Feb 19 @ 9:57 AM ET
Need Jamie McGinn for the gimmick level of having 2 sets of bros.
- NickTheKid87


He's one of the few secondary forwards they have that I know off the top of my head. I didn't look at the roster or anything, literally just a random throw in, didn't even make the connection to Tye
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Feb 19 @ 9:57 AM ET
That's the thing, you have to toss in Simmonds or Voracek, which means that you'd need more from the Avalanche.

Maybe you go Couts, Simmonds or Voracek for O'Reilly, Jamie McGinn and Johnson or sub in a couple picks instead of McGinn...Even that seems off. Just spitballing here off the top of my head.

- Jsaquella


I'd love to have Johnson, but I can't see Colorado moving him. Teams rarely trade quality young defenseman with #1 potential.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Feb 19 @ 9:57 AM ET
That bugged me, but you can't argue the results.
- Jsaquella


It was questionable no doubt, but I wasn't about to jump down Lavy's throat before the game was even played.

My rule of thumb is don't say anything before a game that could sound stupid after.
hammarby31
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: it's been 84 years, AZ
Joined: 01.02.2007

Feb 19 @ 9:58 AM ET
can we keep our own 1st round pick for more than 5 minutes, without dumping him trying to fill a need elsewhere, for (frank)'s sake?

he's a 20 year old kid with tremendous potential, who has already done an admirable job at the nhl level. he was a gift selection at #8.

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