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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Patience and Prospects
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Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Mar 20 @ 9:08 AM ET
Kris Versteeg for a 2nd rd pick

- jak521


Great deal for the Flyers.
BringBack25
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: deep lurk
Joined: 01.03.2007

Mar 20 @ 9:08 AM ET
Dan dekeyser and andrej sustr we should try hard to sign one or both of these guys
- griouxmvp2012


No objection to either of those, but we should also grab McKay as well. We passed on Scrivens when we had the chance, and he's done reasonably well for the Leafs when he's started and is certainly a solid backup. McKay has even better stats than Scrivens did.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Mar 20 @ 9:09 AM ET
If they trade us Weber we'll take him off their hands
- TheGreat28


Bryz and Briere for Weber and Rinne (when Weber is available for trade). Book it.
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Mar 20 @ 9:09 AM ET
the flyers def have a scoring problem this yr as well. when they cut ties w/ briere, they will def need to bring in a 25 goal/yr winger. i guess all of the yrs of shedding scorers has finally caught up to them...
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Mar 20 @ 9:10 AM ET
Bryz and Briere for Weber and Rinne (when Weber is available for trade). Book it.
- NickTheKid87


I don't know...I don't think we're getting enough back. Maybe a first too
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Mar 20 @ 9:10 AM ET
Bill,

Great article. You have much more eloquently stated what a number of us have said (and sometimes have been called out on) over the last few months or so.

Two points. First, I think the reason most knowledgable fans prefer to trade Couturier is not because of his down season but rather is because he has a ready-made replacement waiting in the wings in Laughton. It's like Pittsburgh trading Staal and getting Sutter, except we already have Laughton. Yes Sutter was a little bit if a downgrade as will be Laughton, but we get other assets and can play Schenn at 2nd center, his more natural position.


- TheGreat28



I have to disagree that Laughton is a ready made replacement for Couturier. If both reach their potential, Laughton is not going to be the player that Couturier is. And the Pens traded Staal because he wouldn't re-sign with them.
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Mar 20 @ 9:11 AM ET
the flyers def have a scoring problem this yr as well. when they cut ties w/ briere, they will def need to bring in a 25 goal/yr winger. i guess all of the yrs of shedding scorers has finally caught up to them...
- isaiah520


The Flyers have a "5 on 5" issue as much as they have a scoring issue.
BringBack25
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: deep lurk
Joined: 01.03.2007

Mar 20 @ 9:11 AM ET
the flyers def have a scoring problem this yr as well. when they cut ties w/ briere, they will def need to bring in a 25 goal/yr winger. i guess all of the yrs of shedding scorers has finally caught up to them...
- isaiah520


Too many vowels. Pls shrtn & rpst. Ty.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Mar 20 @ 9:12 AM ET
the flyers def have a scoring problem this yr as well. when they cut ties w/ briere, they will def need to bring in a 25 goal/yr winger. i guess all of the yrs of shedding scorers has finally caught up to them...
- isaiah520


I think their offensive issues have been largely do to injury and lack of puck movers on D to fit the system. Giroux, Hartnell, Read, Voracek, Simmonds and Schenn should produce plenty of O in the top 6.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Mar 20 @ 9:13 AM ET
the flyers def have a scoring problem this yr as well. when they cut ties w/ briere, they will def need to bring in a 25 goal/yr winger. i guess all of the yrs of shedding scorers has finally caught up to them...
- isaiah520



The Flyers are having trouble scoring at times, due to the way they play. And because some players currently aren't scoring. Even without Briere, they have plenty of offensive depth.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Mar 20 @ 9:14 AM ET
The Flyers have a "5 on 5" issue as much as they have a scoring issue.
- johndewar



Absolutely. They're a terrible 5 on 5 team.
Rliable
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Blackwood, NJ
Joined: 02.19.2013

Mar 20 @ 9:14 AM ET
Let me know when Bryz starts looking like Roy or Brodeur
- Flyers_01


I wasn't suggesting Bryz is as good as either of those guys. I was making a point that many people seem to think you can just buy the guy out and replace him with someone better. If there were someone better available, he'd be gone. The fact is that teams just don't let elite goaltenders go very often. Many fans expect every goalie to be some type of impenetrable wall. Every goalie gives up "weak" goals.

The fact is that Bryz has kept the Flyers in just about every game this season. The team's troubles start at the blueline and move out from there. Horrible team defense + anemic offense = bad situation.

Shore up the defense, and this is a very good team. Holmgren attempted to do this over the summer with the Suter/Shea situations. The problem is that he lost a defenseman (Carle) and a key veteran forward (Jagr) while waiting for each of those situations to play out. Add in the fact that Pronger is done, and, well, it's pretty obvious what his absence means.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Mar 20 @ 9:15 AM ET
I have to disagree that Laughton is a ready made replacement for Couturier. If both reach their potential, Laughton is not going to be the player that Couturier is. And the Pens traded Staal because he wouldn't re-sign with them.
- MJL


And because Staal could demand a huge contract. Couturier is going to have a $1.375m cap hit next year, and can then expect a two or three year deal at around $2.5m per season. He won't have the numbers to demand anything better.

So the Flyers would be mad to get rid of such a young, affordable player with huge potential unless they are getting a top defenseman in return.
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Mar 20 @ 9:17 AM ET
the flyers def have a scoring problem this yr as well. when they cut ties w/ briere, they will def need to bring in a 25 goal/yr winger. i guess all of the yrs of shedding scorers has finally caught up to them...
- isaiah520


At the beginning of last season I was really worried about scoring and particularly chemistry, which seemed to trigger a ton of responses that chemistry is overrated, how off base I was etc. Then of course they scored a ton of goals and I pretty much thought...ok those guys were right...I AM an idiot.

But now I think the original concern was valid and last year was an anomaly. The pieces just don't seem to fit together well, except maybe the G line. There are some nice pieces that SHOULD play well as a line but they just don't seem to have that certain something that makes them blend.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Mar 20 @ 9:17 AM ET
The Flyers are having trouble scoring at times, due to the way they play. And because some players currently aren't scoring. Even without Briere, they have plenty of offensive depth.
- MJL

I agree.. Id sooner have them go out and get a strong puck moving d-man than a 25 goal scorer... we will have plenty goal scorers. Right now our transition game is poop... Look no further than the past few games. During the third period of the TB game there was about a minute in a half where the Flyers tried 4 separate times to enter the Lighting zone... only to have the puck CLEANLY taken away at the blue line. If we could get a better transition game we would score more.
psuhockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 03.25.2011

Mar 20 @ 9:18 AM ET
Every case is different, but it's not hard to build an argument for the Flyers showing just as little patience during the Holmgren era as with Clarke. Let's look at their first round picks and some other major decisions where they pulled the trigger very quickly:

* Steve Downie was drafted in the first round in 2005. He spent about half of one year with the big club and then got dealt early the next year.

* The Flyers traded a first-round pick to acquire Steve Eminger from Washington. A few weeks into his first season, he and Downie got traded to Tampa for Matt Carle (a move that worked out for Philly, but an undeniable quick reversal of course).

* Luca Sbisa was drafted in the first round in 2008. He spent one year in the organization, being called a building block player. The next summer, he's part of the package to acquire Chris Pronger and take a run at the Cup in 2009-10.

* The Flyers signed Mike Richards and Jeff Carter to long-term contract extensions, signifying an intention to keep building around them for the long haul. Then they traded both of them away within a year. They may have been good moves that improved the team in the long haul, but that's not the point here. The point is the fact of a sudden reversal of direction.

* The Flyers signed James van Riemsdyk to a long-term contract extension after his run in the 2011 playoffs. One injury-plagued down year later, he's traded.

- bmeltzer

All very good points. I guess I view most of that as a result of a misguided belief that Richards and Carter's were superstars and that that team was a true cup contender after the 2008 conference finals run. The Eminger trade, the worst of Holmgren's career, the Carle trade and then the Pronger trade was all about trying to find that final piece to push the Flyers over the hump. I really wonder if they lose in overtime in 2008 to the Capitals in the 1st rd if Holmgren would have had a more patient approach to building the team. Overvaluing players to me has been the biggest issue with Holmgren. Signing players to expensive superstar contracts based on a small sample size usually leads to the sign and trade cycle we have seen the last two years in the salary cap world. You can't be wrong with big contracts and improve your team elsewhere.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Mar 20 @ 9:21 AM ET
All very good points. I guess I view most of that as a result of a misguided belief that Richards and Carter's were superstars and that that team was a true cup contender after the 2008 conference finals run. The Eminger trade, the worst of Holmgren's career, the Carle trade and then the Pronger trade was all about trying to find that final piece to push the Flyers over the hump. I really wonder if they lose in overtime in 2008 to the Capitals in the 1st rd if Holmgren would have had a more patient approach to building the team. Overvaluing players to me has been the biggest issue with Holmgren. Signing players to expensive superstar contracts based on a small sample size usually leads to the sign and trade cycle we have seen the last two years in the salary cap world. You can't be wrong with big contracts and improve your team elsewhere.
- psuhockey


The Eminger trade by itself is bad but when you factor in that Homer flipped Eminger for Carle it doesn't look so bad.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Mar 20 @ 9:24 AM ET
At the beginning of last season I was really worried about scoring and particularly chemistry, which seemed to trigger a ton of responses that chemistry is overrated, how off base I was etc. Then of course they scored a ton of goals and I pretty much thought...ok those guys were right...I AM an idiot.

But now I think the original concern was valid and last year was an anomaly. The pieces just don't seem to fit together well, except maybe the G line. There are some nice pieces that SHOULD play well as a line but they just don't seem to have that certain something that makes them blend.

- TheGreat28



The current problem with this team isn't chemistry. Its the way they play, and it starts with team defense. That's why they have trouble scoring goals.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Mar 20 @ 9:26 AM ET
Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Patience and Prospects
- bmeltzer


You Sir, are the voice of sanity! Thank you!!!
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Mar 20 @ 9:28 AM ET
I have to disagree that Laughton is a ready made replacement for Couturier. If both reach their potential, Laughton is not going to be the player that Couturier is. And the Pens traded Staal because he wouldn't re-sign with them.
- MJL


Here is the thing MJL. I couldn't post last night as I'm on the West Coast and the discussion had passed by the Time I read it. I fundamentally agree with your position though that you make deals with a larger strategy in mind, not just to trade someone because you can get something.

So yes, Coots has a higher upside than Laughton, though I don't personally think that is as high as you, Bill, and others. But I've always maintained that position, it hasn't changed either way this year. But we both agree he has a high ceiling and hence trade value.

But the larger strategy says long term they have four centers, excluding Briere but including Laughton for three spots since all of them rate higher than 4th center. G is a lock, and Schenn's skill set is different than Laughton or Coots. I think he has highest offensice upside. Laughton has less offennsive upside so he is your three on a checking line. Either Schenn or Coots is your 2. Coots has more value so you trade him in my book.

So it is not coots > Laughton, it is Coots = Laughton + the asset they get for Coots
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Mar 20 @ 9:28 AM ET
The Eminger trade by itself is bad but when you factor in that Homer flipped Eminger for Carle it doesn't look so bad.
- NickTheKid87

To me it looks even worse in the long run... because the Caps have Carlson and we have nothing to show for that trade.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Mar 20 @ 9:28 AM ET
Absolutely. They're a terrible 5 on 5 team.
- MJL


They are 26th overall, but 7th in both PP and PK percentage. Has a bottom 5 team ever finished in the top 5 on combined special teams before?
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Mar 20 @ 9:28 AM ET
The current problem with this team isn't chemistry. Its the way they play, and it starts with team defense. That's why they have trouble scoring goals.
- MJL

bhigh21
Joined: 04.13.2007

Mar 20 @ 9:29 AM ET
you might have to trade Couterier, read or schenn to upgrade the defense in the offseason but right now its time to unload the vets.

Briere clears cap space(if he will go), fedotenko will help a playoff team and I think Coburn and Meszaros should be dealt.

I think Coburn and a pick could get JBo.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Mar 20 @ 9:30 AM ET
To me it looks even worse in the long run... because the Caps have Carlson and we have nothing to show for that trade.
- jak521


We have an Atlantic Divison and Eastern Conference Championship! Memories.
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