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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Patience and Prospects
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Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Mar 21 @ 9:03 AM ET
No.

He will just raise everyone's cable bill.

- PLindbergh31


He doesn't even need to, they'll still make money this year. He's just losing playoff revenue.
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Mar 21 @ 9:03 AM ET
A lot depends on the lottery. I could see a team like Columbus or Washington taking Nate MacKinnon. I could see Florida grabbing Drouin.

I posted last night, if they are at 7, and Lindholm and Shinkaruk are the only "top ten" forwards left, I think they go with Nurse.

- Jsaquella


Yeah, I'm just saying that I believe MacKinnon, Drouin, Barkov, Nichushkin, Monahan and Lindolm will all be taken before a defenseman not named Seth Jones.
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Mar 21 @ 9:05 AM ET
From everything I have seen this draft is deeper in the top 15 picks than most, but there isn't that can't miss stud, like a Kane or Stamkos. Would that be correct?
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Mar 21 @ 9:07 AM ET
Yeah, I'm just saying that I believe MacKinnon, Drouin, Barkov, Nichushkin, Monahan and Lindolm will all be taken before a defenseman not named Seth Jones.
- bradleyc4


I agree there. I have see some mocks where a name like Shinkaruk pops into the top 5, pushing Lindholm down into the 8th slot. I could see a team taking Nurse or Ristolainen in the top 5-7, too, given the way that they have been rising lately.
Philly1980
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.30.2011

Mar 21 @ 9:09 AM ET
I'd need a first round pick to drop from 4 to 9.
- MJL


exactly the difference in quality i think is huge
Philly1980
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.30.2011

Mar 21 @ 9:10 AM ET
From everything I have seen this draft is deeper in the top 15 picks than most, but there isn't that can't miss stud, like a Kane or Stamkos. Would that be correct?
- PLindbergh31


i would say mackinon...
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Mar 21 @ 9:16 AM ET
From everything I have seen this draft is deeper in the top 15 picks than most, but there isn't that can't miss stud, like a Kane or Stamkos. Would that be correct?
- PLindbergh31


The top 3 guys could become very special players.
jmatchett
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Mantua, NJ
Joined: 01.13.2008

Mar 21 @ 9:16 AM ET
I'd want at least a high 2nd, if not more to drop from 4 to 9. Not only will you get a slightly lesser player, you potentially miss out on Nurse, Ristolainen and Zadorov, who could climb into that area.
- Jsaquella


Well it depends on who they'd like to get. If they want to draft a defenseman in the first round, and Jones isn't available, there might not be another one taken until several spots after their pick. If that's the case, you could trade down a few picks if you can grab another late first, high second, or an upgrade at a position (for example: if Isles have pick 9, you could trade the 4/5 spot to them for the 9 and maybe Hamonic...for example)
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Mar 21 @ 9:16 AM ET
From everything I have seen this draft is deeper in the top 15 picks than most, but there isn't that can't miss stud, like a Kane or Stamkos. Would that be correct?
- PLindbergh31


On some level, yes. Stamkos was seen as an elite level goal scorer, which he obviously is. Kane wasn't even seen to have the kind of potential as Stamkos, just as the best of a rather weak class.

Drouin and MacKinnon should be safe bets to be star level players. Jones is also a fairly safe bet to be, at least, a good defenseman.

Guys like Nichushkin, Barkov, Monahan and Lindholm are also seen as safe bet NHLers, who will be top 6 forwards.

The group of players like Nurse, Zadorov and Shinkaruk are more risky to guarantee. Nurse in particular could be a Pronger type, but could also be Chris Therien. The key is patience with a guy like him. He's very raw, but has off the charts athleticism and is a very good skater.
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Mar 21 @ 9:17 AM ET
Just noticed the Jackets have 3 first round picks. Will be interesting to see what they do. They looked a mess a few months ago, things are looking up in C-Bus.
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Mar 21 @ 9:18 AM ET
The top 3 guys could become very special players.
- bradleyc4


Depends on what 3 though right? A team could make a mistake.
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Mar 21 @ 9:19 AM ET
On some level, yes. Stamkos was seen as an elite level goal scorer, which he obviously is. Kane wasn't even seen to have the kind of potential as Stamkos, just as the best of a rather weak class.

Drouin and MacKinnon should be safe bets to be star level players. Jones is also a fairly safe bet to be, at least, a good defenseman.

Guys like Nichushkin, Barkov, Monahan and Lindholm are also seen as safe bet NHLers, who will be top 6 forwards.

The group of players like Nurse, Zadorov and Shinkaruk are more risky to guarantee. Nurse in particular could be a Pronger type, but could also be Chris Therien. The key is patience with a guy like him. He's very raw, but has off the charts athleticism and is a very good skater.

- Jsaquella


The fact Nurse is 6'4" and a very good skater already at this age is a good sign. That's a huge difference, Pronger or Therien. The mock I'm reading right now has the Flyers taking Nurse.
Philly1980
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.30.2011

Mar 21 @ 9:20 AM ET
flyers should try to get Jones, Ristolainen, Nurse in that order....i know forwards are safer....but for once id like to say them pick a defensive prospect and handle it right.
eayost
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Into the Void, PA
Joined: 04.14.2010

Mar 21 @ 9:20 AM ET
Just noticed the Jackets have 3 first round picks. Will be interesting to see what they do. They looked a mess a few months ago, things are looking up in C-Bus.
- PLindbergh31


Depending on where they, the Flyers, and the Rangers finish (since the have the Rangers pick), I wonder if Columbus could be a team with an available 1st rounder looking to move up in the draft. I think LA's pick is the other they have.
Philly1980
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.30.2011

Mar 21 @ 9:21 AM ET
Just noticed the Jackets have 3 first round picks. Will be interesting to see what they do. They looked a mess a few months ago, things are looking up in C-Bus.
- PLindbergh31


That could do wonders in this draft.....
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Mar 21 @ 9:22 AM ET
Depending on where they, the Flyers, and the Rangers finish (since the have the Rangers pick), I wonder if Columbus could be a team with an available 1st rounder looking to move up in the draft. I think LA's pick is the other they have.
- eayost


Yeah they have the Rangers and Kings first rounders. Rangers are going to make the playoffs, as are the Kings. With the way the Jackets are playing they could easily be outside the top 10 with their pick. They might want to move up, they certainly have the chips to do so.
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Mar 21 @ 9:23 AM ET
Depends on what 3 though right? A team could make a mistake.
- PLindbergh31


True, but it's almost a certainty that Jones, Drouin and MacKinnon will be the first 3 selections (in no particular order).
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Mar 21 @ 9:23 AM ET
Well it depends on who they'd like to get. If they want to draft a defenseman in the first round, and Jones isn't available, there might not be another one taken until several spots after their pick. If that's the case, you could trade down a few picks if you can grab another late first, high second, or an upgrade at a position (for example: if Isles have pick 9, you could trade the 4/5 spot to them for the 9 and maybe Hamonic...for example)
- jmatchett


That's a possibility. But again, the payoff had better be high.

The difference between a guy like Nichushkin, Monahan or Barkov and a guy like Nurse, Shinkaruk or Zadorov is that the former three are safer bets.

Look at Monahan-the kid's a very safe bet. You take him, he's going to be a first or second line NHL center. Even a guy like Lindholm, who is the one guy projected in the top 7 that could drop, IMO, is a very safe bet to have a very good, solid NHL career in somebody's top 6 or top 9 at worst.

Take a guy like Nurse-he's a great skater and has off the charts athleticism. But he's also pretty raw. Even a guy like Zadorov. He's got all the physical tools to be a monster, but he's more of a question mark and been passed in some eyes by Nurse and Ristolainen because he hasn't shown the offense you'd like to see out of a guy with his physical tools.

It may well be worth dropping for a guy like Hamonic_although I doubt the Isles trade him to move up.
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Mar 21 @ 9:25 AM ET
True, but it's almost a certainty that Jones, Drouin and MacKinnon will be the first 3 selections (in no particular order).
- bradleyc4


Yep. Everything I have read it's those 3 at the top. Would be awesome if the Flyers cracked the top 3. It's a longshot, but you never know.
eayost
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Into the Void, PA
Joined: 04.14.2010

Mar 21 @ 9:25 AM ET
So wait. What if... Holmgren moves down a couple spots and adds another 1st rounder... and then drafts.....

2 DEFENSEMEN IN THE 1ST ROUND

Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Mar 21 @ 9:26 AM ET
Depends on what 3 though right? A team could make a mistake.
- PLindbergh31


It would be absolutely stunning if Jones, MacKinnon or Drouin dropped out of the top 3. If one of them was sitting at number four, whoever held that pick would suddenly have his phones explode.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Mar 21 @ 9:27 AM ET
flyers should try to get Jones, Ristolainen, Nurse in that order....i know forwards are safer....but for once id like to say them pick a defensive prospect and handle it right.
- Philly1980


I'd flip Nurse and Ristolainen. but I like them both.
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Mar 21 @ 9:27 AM ET
It would be absolutely stunning if Jones, MacKinnon or Drouin dropped out of the top 3. If one of them was sitting at number four, whoever held that pick would suddenly have his phones explode.
- Jsaquella


If the Flyers somehow ended up with the top pick who would you want them to take?
Philly1980
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.30.2011

Mar 21 @ 9:29 AM ET
I'd flip Nurse and Ristolainen. but I like them both.
- Jsaquella


Really? I admit i havent seen both play but from the highlights(yes i know :lol Risto seems better....
Philly1980
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.30.2011

Mar 21 @ 9:29 AM ET
If the Flyers somehow ended up with the top pick who would you want them to take?
- PLindbergh31

Jones....
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