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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Bryzgalov, Hartnell, Wellwood
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flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Apr 22 @ 8:56 PM ET
The thing that makes me nervous is that there's a much greater chance that a top defensive prospect doesn't pan out than a comparable forward prospect. Even in that dynamite 2008 draft-class, the quality of dmen taken in the 1st-round ran the gamut from legit franchise guys (Karlsson, Doughty and Pietrangelo), to guys that have only really shown flashes (Myers, MDZ, Bogosian, Schenn, Carlson), to guys who are coming along a bit more slowly (Sbisa, Gardiner), to out and out busts (Teubert, Cuma). 2013 has a handful of really solid d prospects, but it's nowhere near as deep as 2008 in that regard.

Jones is Jones, but Nurse and Ristolainen carry significant risks, and guys like Morrissey, Pulock and Zadarov might not even be top-pairing quality. Whereas guys like Nichushkin, Barkov, Monahan are going to be top-six forwards, almost guaranteed.

- Tomahawk


Good points. All of them.

I would just say this again though. Take no real risks, and you have exactly what the Flyers have right now. A team desperate for talent on the back end. Unable to find it in FA, or trades. Or if they do its going to be an insane overpayment, likely for a player like Yandle, who isn't well rounded enough.

Got to take the risks, to get any rewards. Great well rounded d-men are a premium, and the ways of trading for them or buying them in FA are dead. The organization needs to realise this.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Apr 22 @ 8:57 PM ET
Take no risks. Have no rewards.

A lot of that has to do with patience from up top. To be willing to have a few years of maybe no playoffs, but setting up the pieces properly. Not just throwing a bunch of guys together, who are usually best suited to secondary roles.

- flyer_nutter


There is no reason why this Organization can't be both patient in developing it's players, and make the playoffs in the next few Seasons.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Apr 22 @ 9:00 PM ET
Good points. All of them.

I would just say this again though. Take no real risks, and you have exactly what the Flyers have right now. A team desperate for talent on the back end. Unable to find it in FA, or trades. Or if they do its going to be an insane overpayment, likely for a player like Yandle, who isn't well rounded enough.

Got to take the risks, to get any rewards. Great well rounded d-men are a premium, and the ways of trading for them or buying them in FA are dead. The organization needs to realise this.

- flyer_nutter



Why do you have to take risks? Drafting is never an exact science. When it's the Flyers turn to draft, they take who they feel is the best player. Taking a known risk with a pick as high as they have, would be incredibly foolish. Make the smartest, informed, pick that you can.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Apr 22 @ 9:03 PM ET
Good points. All of them.

I would just say this again though. Take no real risks, and you have exactly what the Flyers have right now. A team desperate for talent on the back end. Unable to find it in FA, or trades. Or if they do its going to be an insane overpayment, likely for a player like Yandle, who isn't well rounded enough.

Got to take the risks, to get any rewards. Great well rounded d-men are a premium, and the ways of trading for them or buying them in FA are dead. The organization needs to realise this.

- flyer_nutter


Agreed. Teams just aren't going to let young dmen go. I just hope nurse is there when we pick. What is his biggest drawback in his game right now?
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Apr 22 @ 9:04 PM ET
Can't wait to order my Horvat jersey. I hope he wears number 80.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Apr 22 @ 9:04 PM ET
Trenton Titans to cease operations for next season

http://www.trentonian.com...end-operations-for-a-year
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Apr 22 @ 9:05 PM ET
Agreed. Teams just aren't going to let young dmen go. I just hope nurse is there when we pick. What is his biggest drawback in his game right now?
- Just5


He's very raw.
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Apr 22 @ 9:05 PM ET
If the Flyers had a better track record drafting defenseman I would have no worries.
- stveshdy


Exactly.

Yet do they really go out of their way to find talent on the back end in the draft? Or go with the safer choice by taking a forward.

Perfect example being taking Coots over Hamilton. I wouldnt be in favour of completely reaching for a player just to fill a need but its not a huge reach to begin with a lot of the time.

This is a what have you done for me lately kind of league. Yet since the "new NHL" this team hasnt realised the importance of developing its own D. They knew perfectly well that Pronger wouldnt be around forever, and neither will Timonen. To me they did pretty damn close to nothing to try and fix the situation, before it got to where it has.

Some may say otherwise, but what I am getting at here. Is in terms of developing a team, or building one, especially the defense. I would say the Flyers havent caught up with the "new NHL". The old days of buying a team or trading to fill such important needs are dead.
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Apr 22 @ 9:06 PM ET
Wow Jordan Subban with his 2nd deliberate head shot in 2 games this one just might finally get him suspended

I thought the one he had in game 2 would have done it.

He's probably a 2nd rounder area for the 2013 draft.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Apr 22 @ 9:08 PM ET
He's very raw.
- Jsaquella


Physically I see that. Is he new to playing D or something. Lack of instincts?
SMS4016
Joined: 01.27.2011

Apr 22 @ 9:09 PM ET
Vanek Has some the sweetest hands in front of the net on the powerplay in the league. Just a random thought.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Apr 22 @ 9:10 PM ET
Good points. All of them.

I would just say this again though. Take no real risks, and you have exactly what the Flyers have right now. A team desperate for talent on the back end. Unable to find it in FA, or trades. Or if they do its going to be an insane overpayment, likely for a player like Yandle, who isn't well rounded enough.

Got to take the risks, to get any rewards. Great well rounded d-men are a premium, and the ways of trading for them or buying them in FA are dead. The organization needs to realise this.

- flyer_nutter



I wouldn't say the Flyers haven't taken risks in the draft... hell, the few times they haven't had to take risks (Pitkanen, JvR) it ended up not working as well for them.

We know the amateur scouting dept seems to have a competitive advantage in a few things historically: unearthing diamond-in-the-rough forwards, having Simon Nolet in the Q, and doing relatively well with college UFA's.

Unfortunately, making the right calls about dmen just isn't one of them.

When they do go out of there way to pick D, they get guys like Woywitka, or take Sbisa instead of MDZ, or take Marshall ahead of Subban. A couple of good years out of Pitkanen is about all they have to show for it in the past decade and a half.
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Apr 22 @ 9:10 PM ET
Agreed. Teams just aren't going to let young dmen go. I just hope nurse is there when we pick. What is his biggest drawback in his game right now?
- Just5


A lot depends on where the Flyers fall.

I wouldnt be against trading down a little bit, if it really would be a stretch to take a d-man.

After Jones, MacK, Drouin and Barkov I think they have to focus on the D. They have a real chance to make a calculated decision and begin the fix now. Or they can hope that good well rounded d-men fall into their lap by magic...

ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Apr 22 @ 9:11 PM ET
He's very raw.
- Jsaquella


What I hope most understand is whatever spot they end up picking most will require going back to whatever league the are currently in and will need more seasoning even into the AHL.

Maybe if they landed Monahan would he be one of the few who would get the 9 game look or even the season in the NHL.

I'm still one that I know Jones will be in the NHL but I feel he would greatly benefit from another year in juniors to work on his game and add muscle.
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Apr 22 @ 9:12 PM ET
Physically I see that. Is he new to playing D or something. Lack of instincts?
- Just5


Q&A with NHL Entry Draft prospect Darnell Nurse

http://blogs.courierposto...t-prospect-darnell-nurse/

"There’s always parts of your game that you can fix. Going into next year it’s my awareness of positioning on the ice and being able to read plays a little bit better than this year. There’s times where I’m getting caught out of position and maybe jumping the puck when I don’t need to. It’s just having that awareness of when to jump and when to stay back as well as where I am at all times on the ice."
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Apr 22 @ 9:13 PM ET
I wouldn't say the Flyers haven't taken risks in the draft... hell, the few times they haven't had to take risks (Pitkanen, JvR) it ended up not working as well for them.

We know the amateur scouting dept seems to have a competitive advantage in a few things historically: unearthing diamond-in-the-rough forwards, having Simon Nolet in the Q, and doing relatively well with college UFA's.

Unfortunately, making the right calls about dmen just isn't one of them.

When they do go out of there way to pick D, they get guys like Woywitka, or take Sbisa instead of MDZ, or take Marshall ahead of Subban. A couple of good years out of Pitkanen is about all they have to show for it in the past decade and a half.

- Tomahawk


I think a good scouting department is the lifeblood of NHL teams, or to be more specific is the lifeblood in the new NHL. ESPECIALLY when it comes to being able to find good d-men.

I've for a while now questioned the Flyers scouting department. They are good when it comes to forwards, and may have found a gem in Stolarz but it cant be so one dimensional.

At the same time. They also need to be more patient with players. Be willing to maybe have a few down years to build a team right. They arent imo. That is a huge flaw.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Apr 22 @ 9:16 PM ET
Physically I see that. Is he new to playing D or something. Lack of instincts?
- Just5


He's expected to improve in all areas, especially in the offensive game. He's been used more as a shut down type guy, but the tools are there and he's nasty. The thing is, it's hard to say if he'll be Chris Pronger or Barrett Jackman, because he's really been used only one way in juniors before this year.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Apr 22 @ 9:18 PM ET
Agreed. Teams just aren't going to let young dmen go. I just hope nurse is there when we pick. What is his biggest drawback in his game right now?
- Just5



He's been bigger and faster and meaner than his peers all along the way, so the question is whether or not he's got enough game to overcome that critical point where those assets stop giving him the same kind of edge.
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Apr 22 @ 9:19 PM ET
He's expected to improve in all areas, especially in the offensive game. He's been used more as a shut down type guy, but the tools are there and he's nasty. The thing is, it's hard to say if he'll be Chris Pronger or Barrett Jackman, because he's really been used only one way in juniors before this year.
- Jsaquella


Nurse like Zadarov have that raw potential but it's how they continue to develop with coaching and the willingness to go the extra miles to get better to reach that well rounded top pair potential
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Apr 22 @ 9:19 PM ET
What I hope most understand is whatever spot they end up picking most will require going back to whatever league the are currently in and will need more seasoning even into the AHL.

Maybe if they landed Monahan would he be one of the few who would get the 9 game look or even the season in the NHL.

I'm still one that I know Jones will be in the NHL but I feel he would greatly benefit from another year in juniors to work on his game and add muscle.

- ob18


Agreed. Assuming they're picking at 7 or so, the kid they get is a bit of a long shot to step right in, even as a third pair defenseman or 3rd line winger.

I'd still be happy with just about anyone they grab, though, because they'd be getting a good player.
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Apr 22 @ 9:21 PM ET
He's expected to improve in all areas, especially in the offensive game. He's been used more as a shut down type guy, but the tools are there and he's nasty. The thing is, it's hard to say if he'll be Chris Pronger or Barrett Jackman, because he's really been used only one way in juniors before this year.
- Jsaquella


I think Bill was saying the other day that European d-men can bypass some rules and go straight to the AHL. Or something like that. Something along the lines of keeping star players in the Juniors.

I love Zadorov, but am starting to lean toward Ristolainen. Especially if he could step into the AHL for the next 2 years. He has played against men overseas.
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Apr 22 @ 9:22 PM ET
Agreed. Assuming they're picking at 7 or so, the kid they get is a bit of a long shot to step right in, even as a third pair defenseman or 3rd line winger.

I'd still be happy with just about anyone they grab, though, because they'd be getting a good player.

- Jsaquella


For (frank)s sake if they take a d-man please dont let him even sniff NHL ice for a year.

I'd prefer two.

ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Apr 22 @ 9:22 PM ET
Agreed. Assuming they're picking at 7 or so, the kid they get is a bit of a long shot to step right in, even as a third pair defenseman or 3rd line winger.

I'd still be happy with just about anyone they grab, though, because they'd be getting a good player.

- Jsaquella


Same here, I'm in fact hopeful they let whomever they pick continue their development even should it be Monahan. And I've been high on him for over a year.

I'll for sure have a group in mind that I'd like to see them pick but knowing enough about the players I doubt I'd be unhappy with their selection.
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Apr 22 @ 9:23 PM ET
I think Bill was saying the other day that European d-men can bypass some rules and go straight to the AHL. Or something like that. Something along the lines of keeping star players in the Juniors.

I love Zadorov, but am starting to lean toward Ristolainen. Especially if he could step into the AHL for the next 2 years. He has played against men overseas.

- flyer_nutter


I've changed my mindset for D after Jones

Ristolainen, Pulock, & Nurse and you can really put them in any order.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Apr 22 @ 9:23 PM ET
I think Bill was saying the other day that European d-men can bypass some rules and go straight to the AHL. Or something like that. Something along the lines of keeping star players in the Juniors.

I love Zadorov, but am starting to lean toward Ristolainen. Especially if he could step into the AHL for the next 2 years. He has played against men overseas.

- flyer_nutter


The AHL 20 year old rule applies only to CHL players. However, in a lot of cases, the player's ELITE team will sign them to a deal to keep them for a couple/few years.

I like Zadorov, too, but I have him lower than some of the other defensemen. Depending where they pick, I'd definitely look at potential ore than position in this year's 1st round.
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