Say this were baseball and you had holes in #4 and #5 of your starting pitching rotation as well as a few holes in the bullpen, but the best player available with your first round pick is a left fielder, a position you've got covered with talented youth. And the next best player is a second baseman, another position covered by talent and youth. The 3rd best player as assessed by your scouts is a pitcher who they project to be a starter, but who might also become a middle reliever.

Do you ignore your need and take the best player that doesn't fill any glaring holes, or do you take the player that might, given the vagaries of the draft, best fill the needs of the team and turn into a damn good player?

To me, it's a no-brainer, especially given the unpredictability of drafted players. If I'm going to gamble, which almost every pick is to one degree or another, I gamble on a defenseman.
- wolfhounds

Not really comparable since there are less positions in hockey defensively and there is nothing akin to a "batting order" with regard to hockey positions.

Player-coach next season? You sure he can handle both roles? Or do you mean promote a new head coach and have Timonen on as assistant coach/player?
- Flyskippy

coaching staff next year: kimmo, pronger, knuble

Yeah, you're right. All he's ever done is become the NHL's leading playoff goal-scorer since the last lockout, and had a pair of 30-goal regular season in Philly (and four in his career). Oh, and during his Flyers' career, Briere has notched a combined 23 game-winners (14 in the regular season and nine in the playoffs). Counting ONLY regular season games, he has scored 11 overtime goals in his career, including four in a Flyers uniform.

But apart from THAT, what has he ever done on the ice for the Flyers?
- bmeltzer

What has he done the last two seasons? Is he still worth his 6.5 million cap hit?

Not really comparable since there are less positions in hockey defensively and there is nothing akin to a "batting order" with regard to hockey positions.
- Flyskippy

The heart of the question stands: best player available that doesn't fill as great an organizational need, or a player who is likely to be a very good and who fills an organizational need?

What has he done the last two seasons? Is he still worth his 6.5 million cap hit?
- Philly1980

Yeah, what's he done since yesterday?

The heart of the question stands: best player available that doesn't fill as great an organizational need, or a player who is likely to be a very good player and who fills an organizational need?
- wolfhounds

He would fill the organizational need now if he could play now. Since any player in the draft cannot fill an organizational need now, you go with the best player available.

Yeah, what's he done since yesterday?
- jmatchett383

two season is different then yesterday...this is a business, im sorry to say but if your not performing, you should get the boot whether nice guy or not.


70 16 33 49
32 5 10 15
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102 21 43 64

enough said.

The heart of the question stands: best player available that doesn't fill as great an organizational need, or a player who is likely to be a very good player and who fills an organizational need?
- wolfhounds

In baseball, most players spend a few years in the minors before getting a callup. Over that time, strengths/weaknesses change. In hockey, it's usually a much more accelerated route.

coaching staff next year: kimmo, pronger, knuble
- Crimsoninja

2013-14: Team Truculence

two season is different then yesterday...this is a business, im sorry to say but if your not performing, you should get the boot whether nice guy or not.
- Philly1980

I'm just saying that, instead of looking over the course of 2 seasons, it helps to look over the entire length of the contract. But yes, he will be gone after this season.

What has he done the last two seasons? Is he still worth his 6.5 million cap hit?
- Philly1980

There's a universe of difference between Briere's performance dropping the past couple of seasons (or not being worth a big cap hit, or however you'd like to frame it), and saying he "never does poop on the ice to back things up". Really, Bill could've stopped at 'leading playoffs goal scorer since the previous lockout' and still have a completely valid point.

Monday's Draft lottery is going to fun...

The last place team has lost the drawing 11-times since 1995, and that was under the old ~50% chance of winning. The worst team (FLA) now only has 25% chance to win, with the odds of all other teams getting a boost.

NJ won it in 2011 w/ a 3.6% chance -- roughly what the Flyers are looking at sitting in 8th -- but the Devils couldn't move up more than 4 spots with the old rules. This year, if the Flyers win with 3.6% chance, they get Seth Jones. Crazy.

Florida's also traded out of the top-pick twice in recent history, so that ought to add some spice to the conversation should the odds fall in their favor.
- Tomahawk

I don't think Seth Jones gets enough hype. Perhaps thats because he's American? I don't see him neck and neck with Mackinnon like many do. This guy looked like a man amongst boys for the most part in the U20 tourney. He moves really well at 6'4", plays physical. I think he's as clear cut a #1 as they come.

70 16 33 49
32 5 10 15
----------------------
102 21 43 64

enough said.
- Philly1980

11 7 2 9
11 8 5 13
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22 15 7 22

What has he done the last two seasons? Is he still worth his 6.5 million cap hit?
- Philly1980

No, which is why he is subject to Buyout rumors. No need to trash the man or treat his case callously.

Say this were baseball and you had holes in #4 and #5 of your starting pitching rotation as well as a few holes in the bullpen, but the best player available with your first round pick is a left fielder, a position you've got covered with talented youth. And the next best player is a second baseman, another position covered by talent and youth. The 3rd best player as assessed by your scouts is a pitcher who they project to be a starter, but who might also become a middle reliever.

Do you ignore your need and take the best player that doesn't fill any glaring holes, or do you take the player that might, given the vagaries of the draft, best fill the needs of the team and turn into a damn good player?

To me, it's a no-brainer, especially given the unpredictability of drafted players. If I'm going to gamble, which almost every pick is to one degree or another, I gamble on a defenseman.
- wolfhounds

You still take the best player, regardless of position. What you are forgetting is that there are other teams that have needs, too, and having tremendous depth at a certain position enables you to better trade -- without opening a hole -- in order to fill that need.

Also in regards to hockey, projecting 18-year-old defensemen and especially projecting teenage goaltenders is an even more inexact science than projecting forwards.

Last year, I compiled a list of 152 defensemen who played in the NHL in 2011-12. Players are listed by their draft round, overall selection number and draft year. Undrafted defensemen are listed alphabetically by surname.


FIRST ROUND (54)
Roman Hamrlik – 1/1 1992
Chris Phillips – 1/1 1996
Erik Johnson – 1/1 2006
Chris Pronger – 1/2 1993
Drew Doughty – 1/2 2008
Victor Hedman- 1/2 2009
Brad Stuart – 1/3 1998
Jay Bouwmeester – 1/3 2002
Jack Johnson – 1/3 2005
Zach Bogosian – 1/3 2008
Erik Gudbranson – 1/3 2010
Bryan Allen – 1/4 1998
Rostislav Klesla – 1/4 2000
Joni Pitkanen – 1/4 2002
Alex Pietrangelo – 1/4 2008
Adam Larsson – 1/4 2011
Eric Brewer – 1/5 1997
Ryan Whitney – 1/5 2002
Karl Alzner – 1/5 2007
Luke Schenn – 1/5 2008
Oliver Ekman-Larsson – 1/6 2009
Ryan Suter – 1/7 2003
Braydon Coburn – 1/8 2003
Dion Phaneuf – 1/9 2003
Ladislav Smid – 1/9 2004
Brian Lee – 1/9 2005
Jared Cowen – 1/9 2009
Keaton Ellerby – 1/10 2007
Dan Hamhuis – 1/12 2001
Marc Staal – 1/12 2005
Ryan McDonagh – 1/12 2007
Tyler Myers – 1/12 2008
Cam Fowler – 1/12 2010
Sergei Gonchar— 1/14 1992
Brent Seabrook - 1/14 2003
Kevin Shattenkirk – 1/14 2007
Dmitry Kulikov – 1/14 2009
Erik Karlsson – 1/15 2008
Nick Leddy— 1/16 2009
Barret Jackman – 1/17 1999
Carlo Colaiacovo – 1/17 2001
Jake Gardiner – 1/17 2008
Brooks Orpik – 1/18 2000
Luca Sbisa – 1/19 2008
Brent Burns – 1/20 2003
Michael Del Zotto- 1/20 2008
Anton Volchenkov – 1/21 2000
Mark Stuart— 1/21 2003
Scott Hannan – 1/23 1997
Tim Gleason – 1/23 2001
Andrej Meszaros – 1/23 2004
John Carlson – 1/27 2008
Matt Niskanen – 1/28 2005
Niklas Kronwall – 1/29 2000

SECOND ROUND (22)
Slava Voynov – 2/32 2008
Marc-Edouard Vlasic – 2/35 2005
Kevin Klein – 2/37 2003
Justin Faulk – 2/37 2010
Roman Josi – 2/38 2008
Fedor Tyutin – 2/40 2001
Trevor Daley – 2/43 2002
P.K. Subban – 2/43 2007
Jordan Leopold – 2/44 1999
Matt Greene – 2/44 2002
Jeff Petry – 2/45 2006
Matt Carle – 2/47 2003
Henrik Tallinder – 2/49 1997
Shea Weber – 2/49 2003
Travis Hamonic – 2/53 2008
Duncan Keith – 2/54 2002
Adam McQuaid – 2/55 2005
Nicklas Grossmann – 2/56 2004
Johnny Boychuk – 2/61 2002
Alex Goligoski – 2/61 2004
Paul Martin – 2/62 2000
Jamie McBain – 2/63 2006


THIRD ROUND (11)
Nicklas Lidstrom – 3/53 1989
Zdeno Chara – 3/56 1996
Kris Letang – 3/62 2005
Sheldon Souray – 3/71 1994
Andrej Sekera – 3/71 2004
Francois Beauchemin – 3/75 1998
Ryan O’Byrne – 3/79 2003
Cody Franson – 3/79 2005
Jay Harrison – 3/82 2001
Aaron Johnson – 3/85 2001
Alex Edler – 3/91 2001

FOURTH ROUND (13)
Joe Corvo – 4/83 1997
Toni Lydman – 4/89 1996
Chris Butler – 4/96 2005
Michal Rozival – 4/105 1996
Keith Yandle – 4/105 2005
Christian Ehrhoff – 4/106 2001
Jan Hejda— 4/106 2003
Niklas Hjalmarsson – 4/108 2005
TJ Brodie – 4/114 2008
Lubomir Visnovsky- 4/118 2000
Corey Potter – 4/122 2003
Tom Gilbert – 4/129 2002
Kyle Quincey – 4/132 2003

FIFTH ROUND OR LATER (41)
Jaroslav Spacek – 5/117 1998
Rob Scuderi – 5/134 1998
Nikita Nikitin – 5/136 2004
Bryce Salvador – 6/138 1994
Philip Larsen – 5/149 2008
Kevin Bieksa – 5/151 2001
Brett Clark – 6/154 1996
Mark Fayne – 5/155 2005
Brian Campbell – 6/156 1997
James Wisniewski – 5/156 2002
Jared Spurgeon – 6/158 2008
John-Michael Liles – 5/159 2000
Andrew MacDonald – 6/160 2006
Stephane Robidas – 7/164 1995
Dennis Seidenberg – 6/172 2001
Roman Polak – 6/180 2004
Bruno Gervais – 6/182 2003
Marek Zidlicky – 6/176 2001
Pavel Kubina – 7/179 1996
Jason Demers – 7/186 2008
Ian White – 6/191 2002
Filip Kuba – 8/192 1995
Derek Engelland – 6/194 2000
Carl Gunnarsson – 7/194 2007
Willie Mitchell – 8/199 1996
Tomas Kaberle – 8/204 1996
Hal Gill – 8/207 1993
Andrew Ference – 8/208 1997
Anton Stralman – 7/216 2005
Johnny Oduya – 7/221 2001
Sami Salo – 9/239 1996
Tobias Enstrom - 8/239 2003
Douglas Murray – 8/241 1999
Milan Jurcina – 8/241 2001
Dennis Wideman- 8/241 2002
Dustin Byfuglien – 8/245 2003
Kimmo Timonen - 10/250 1993
Shane O’Brien— 8/250 2003
Mark Streit – 9/262 2004
Grant Clitsome – 9/271 2004
Jonathan Ericsson – 9/291 2002

UNDRAFTED (11)
Marc-Andre Bergeron
Francis Bouillon
Dan Boyle
Jason Garrison
Matt Gilroy
Mark Giordano
Dan Girardi
Josh Gorges
Andy Greene
Mike Weaver
Ryan Wilson

There's a universe of difference between Briere's performance dropping the past couple of seasons (or not being worth a big cap hit, or however you'd like to frame it), and saying he "never does poop on the ice to back things up".
- BulliesPhan87

Hyperbole is fact. Look it up.

He would fill the organizational need now if he could play now. Since any player in the draft cannot fill an organizational need now, you go with the best player available.
- Flyskippy

Our previous 2 first round draft picks both were good enough to stay with the big club their rookie year. Laughton didn't stay, not because he wasn't good enough, but because we have a glut at center. The same can't be said for D where we are definitely looking for an upgrade at numbers 5, 6, and 7.

In other words, if this year's talent pool is as deep as people are saying, there's a very good chance quite a few of these kids are in the NHL next season. And there would be, in my opinion, a good chance for a defenseman to stick with the Flyers next season, especially when compared to a forward.

In baseball, most players spend a few years in the minors before getting a callup. Over that time, strengths/weaknesses change. In hockey, it's usually a much more accelerated route.
- jmatchett383

Yup. Agreed.

I'm not sure what side of the debate that places you though?

I don't think Seth Jones gets enough hype. Perhaps thats because he's American? I don't see him neck and neck with Mackinnon like many do. This guy looked like a man amongst boys for the most part in the U20 tourney. He moves really well at 6'4", plays physical. I think he's as clear cut a #1 as they come.
- Just5

He will be the first African American player to be drafted number one. That's a pretty exciting event for the NHL.

What I see is a lot of 1st round defensemen on that list

Yup. Agreed.

I'm not sure what side of the debate that places you though?
- wolfhounds

On the side that you take the best player, and once he's ready to get to the bigs, your situational needs most likely have changed. Hockey's a different sport, but as much as they need a defenseman, it also wouldn't hurt to get some really nice young offensive depth (see: stats, Phantoms, Adirondack) and only go after defenseman if they seem like a safe bet, or pick them up in the 2nd/3rd

No, which is why he is subject to Buyout rumors. No need to trash the man or treat his case callously.
- Flyskippy

im not trashing him...but the last two seasons its the same crap from him....

What I see is a lot of 1st round defensemen on that list
- Just5

id be happy if we can get at least nurse...have a good feeling about the kid...

Our previous 2 first round draft picks both were good enough to stay with the big club their rookie year. Laughton didn't stay, not because he wasn't good enough, but because we have a glut at center. The same can't be said for D where we are definitely looking for an upgrade at numbers 5, 6, and 7.

In other words, if this year's talent pool is as deep as people are saying, there's a very good chance quite a few of these kids are in the NHL next season. And there would be, in my opinion, a good chance for a defenseman to stick with the Flyers next season, especially when compared to a forward.
- wolfhounds

You also don't want to burn a kid's ELC on a shortened season. The longer Laughton "stays down", the longer he remains Flyers property.

The two draft picks (Couturier and Laughton) you mention are forwards. As Bill has written an innumerable amount of times, forwards are much easier to project than defensemen and goalies.

Also, the depth of the draft doesn't equal how quickly any of them make the NHL. It just means that a lot of them are projected to make an NHL impact at some point in their future.

What I see is a lot of 1st round defensemen on that list
- Just5

Yes, but I also see plenty of players taken later in the draft -- or never drafted at all -- who ended up being a hell of a lot better than a significant percentage of those first rounders.

Ultimately, a first-round defenseman has a better shot at making it to the NHL in the first place, but the odds of him becoming a high-end player really aren't that much higher than the later-round guys who make it to the NHL.