id be happy if we can get at least nurse...have a good feeling about the kid...
- Philly1980

He will do for McNabb what the Alumni Game did for Lindros last year. Rebuild the bridge...

In other words, if this year's talent pool is as deep as people are saying, there's a very good chance quite a few of these kids are in the NHL next season. And there would be, in my opinion, a good chance for a defenseman to stick with the Flyers next season, especially when compared to a forward.
- wolfhounds

Outside of Jones, I wouldn't expect any of the top-ranked d to be able to step in right away. They're at best another year or so removed from being able to survive in the NHL. Worst possible thing they could do is force a repeat of the Sbisa situation.

Also, there's always the chance that you reach for a dman and end up with a Cam Barker.

Yes, but I also see plenty of players taken later in the draft -- or never drafted at all -- who ended up being a hell of a lot better than a significant percentage of those first rounders.

Ultimately, a first-round defenseman has a better shot at making it to the NHL in the first place, but the odds of him becoming a high-end player really aren't that much higher than the later-round guys who make it to the NHL.
- bmeltzer

Funny how people can look at the same evidence and "see" what their presuppositions lead them to, eh?

Our previous 2 first round draft picks both were good enough to stay with the big club their rookie year. Laughton didn't stay, not because he wasn't good enough, but because we have a glut at center. The same can't be said for D where we are definitely looking for an upgrade at numbers 5, 6, and 7.

In other words, if this year's talent pool is as deep as people are saying, there's a very good chance quite a few of these kids are in the NHL next season. And there would be, in my opinion, a good chance for a defenseman to stick with the Flyers next season, especially when compared to a forward.
- wolfhounds

Here's a twist on the scenario. Yesterday the head of central scouting was on the radio. He said the teams picking one of the first ten players in the draft will be getting very special players. After that there's a bit of a drop off. There are three Defenseman in the top 10. If you are at 8 and all three of them are gone do you pass on that special forward to take more of a risk by reaching back to a player who might be 13th and out of that "Special" category just to grab a defenseman?

Yes, but I also see plenty of players taken later in the draft -- or never drafted at all -- who ended up being a hell of a lot better than a significant percentage of those first rounders.

Ultimately, a first-round defenseman has a better shot at making it to the NHL in the first place, but the odds of him becoming a high-end player really aren't that much higher than the later-round guys who make it to the NHL.
- bmeltzer

I have a question about that. I know it was years ago and I'm sure scouting tactics are different, but why was Timonen so lowly regarded to fall to the 10th round?

He will do for McNabb what the Alumni Game did for Lindros last year. Rebuild the bridge...


- Flyskippy

could care less about mcnabb

I have a question about that. I know it was years ago and I'm sure scouting tactics are different, but why was Timonen so lowly regarded to fall to the 10th round?
- jmatchett383

I'd bet a lot of it had to do with size. This was the other NHL where a big defensemen was the priority.

You still take the best player, regardless of position. What you are forgetting is that there are other teams that have needs, too, and having tremendous depth at a certain position enables you to better trade -- without opening a hole -- in order to fill that need.

Also in regards to hockey, projecting 18-year-old defensemen and especially projecting teenage goaltenders is an even more inexact science than projecting forwards.

Last year, I compiled a list of 152 defensemen who played in the NHL in 2011-12. Players are listed by their draft round, overall selection number and draft year. Undrafted defensemen are listed alphabetically by surname.
- bmeltzer

Ok, I get that defenseman are, traditionally, more difficult to pick. And apparently the 3rd and 4th rounds can unearth some really quality defenseman, and that's a good thing.

So let's assume the Flyers add to their strength and pick a forward with the idea that some team(s) is deep on the blueline and would be a good trade partner...do you think it's likely the Flyers get top value for said forward(s) when compared to the value a team will get by trading a top 4 d-man?

It seems to me a JVR for Schenn trade scenario is the exception rather than the rule.

Here's a twist on the scenario. Yesterday the head of central scouting was on the radio. He said the teams picking one of the first ten players in the draft will be getting very special players. After that there's a bit of a drop off. There are three Defenseman in the top 10. If you are at 8 and all three of them are gone do you pass on that special forward to take more of a risk by reaching back to a player who might be 13th and out of that "Special" category just to grab a defenseman?
- mayorofangrytown

if jones, nusrse, or risto are gone i think you pick a forward at that point...we probably have a top 10 2 rd pick to get another dman.

Ok, I get that defenseman are, traditionally, more difficult to pick. And apparently the 3rd and 4th rounds can unearth some really quality defenseman, and that's a good thing.

So let's assume the Flyers add to their strength and pick a forward with the idea that some team(s) is deep on the blueline and would be a good trade partner...do you think it's likely the Flyers get top value for said forward(s) when compared to the value a team will get by trading a top 4 d-man?

It seems to me a JVR for Schenn trade scenario is the exception rather than the rule.
- wolfhounds

If the team in question has forwards needs and defensive depth, then they're on equal footing.

Also, there's always the chance that you reach for a dman and end up with a Cam Barker.
- Tomahawk

Compared to the D the Flyers are rolling out right now, I'm not sure we can roll our eyes at Cam Barker......

Ok, I get that defenseman are, traditionally, more difficult to pick. And apparently the 3rd and 4th rounds can unearth some really quality defenseman, and that's a good thing.

So let's assume the Flyers add to their strength and pick a forward with the idea that some team(s) is deep on the blueline and would be a good trade partner...do you think it's likely the Flyers get top value for said forward(s) when compared to the value a team will get by trading a top 4 d-man?

It seems to me a JVR for Schenn trade scenario is the exception rather than the rule.
- wolfhounds

JVR/Schenn was about trading hope. JVR was coming off of a concussion and Schenn was playing 6th defenseman minutes and getting scratched for AHL players. Both teams put their faith in the players turning the corner with a new team and different circumstances.

I have a question about that. I know it was years ago and I'm sure scouting tactics are different, but why was Timonen so lowly regarded to fall to the 10th round?
- jmatchett383

Basically it boiled down to:

1) "Too small": This was the beginning of the "small D need not apply" years that lasted pretty much until after the 2004-05 when there was more of a premium put on mobility than size.

2) European scouting was not nearly as extensive then as it is now, especially for the non-touted players. A lot of teams back then had one European-based scout to cover the entire continent. So unless they happened to get a tip-off from a trusted coach/colleague, their only exposure to Timonen would have been if they saw him at the WJC or else saw one of his SM-liiga games and were impressed despite his limited ice time for KalPa as a teenage player.

Yes, but I also see plenty of players taken later in the draft -- or never drafted at all -- who ended up being a hell of a lot better than a significant percentage of those first rounders.

Ultimately, a first-round defenseman has a better shot at making it to the NHL in the first place, but the odds of him becoming a high-end player really aren't that much higher than the later-round guys who make it to the NHL.
- bmeltzer

You could look at it either way I guess. For the Flyers.....nothing seems to work real well when drafting D

You also don't want to burn a kid's ELC on a shortened season. The longer Laughton "stays down", the longer he remains Flyers property.

The two draft picks (Couturier and Laughton) you mention are forwards. As Bill has written an innumerable amount of times, forwards are much easier to project than defensemen and goalies.

Also, the depth of the draft doesn't equal how quickly any of them make the NHL. It just means that a lot of them are projected to make an NHL impact at some point in their future.
- Flyskippy

Understood. And regarding Laughton, and I agree it was the smart thing to do with him.

One counter is, this year's draft seems deeper than usual, but how that translates into NHL talent is yet to be seen.

You could look at it either way I guess. For the Flyers.....nothing seems to work real well when drafting D
- Just5

That's for sure.

could care less about mcnabb
- Philly1980

I couldn't.

if jones, nusrse, or risto are gone i think you pick a forward at that point...we probably have a top 10 2 rd pick to get another dman.
- Philly1980

The same guy said there's depth to the draft to pick 35, after that there's another drop in talent. There will be some teams who reach so you have to figure if we aren't a reacher there should be a significant talent sitting there for us at 38.

if jones, nusrse, or risto are gone i think you pick a forward at that point...we probably have a top 10 2 rd pick to get another dman.
- Philly1980

In terms of sheer offensive upside, I'd put Pulock ahead of Nurse and way ahead of Ristolainen (who is more puck-mover than a potential 35+ point offensive producer despite what you see in the highlights package).

Here's a twist on the scenario. Yesterday the head of central scouting was on the radio. He said the teams picking one of the first ten players in the draft will be getting very special players. After that there's a bit of a drop off. There are three Defenseman in the top 10. If you are at 8 and all three of them are gone do you pass on that special forward to take more of a risk by reaching back to a player who might be 13th and out of that "Special" category just to grab a defenseman?
- mayorofangrytown

Nope, almost certainly not, unless you know something others don't.

No doubt the silver lining to this craptastic season is that the Flyers are going to get a solid pick in a solid talent pool and I'll be happy and waiting for Bill's analysis the day after the draft.

Funny how people can look at the same evidence and "see" what their presuppositions lead them to, eh?
- Flyskippy

Very true.

The heart of the question stands: best player available that doesn't fill as great an organizational need, or a player who is likely to be a very good and who fills an organizational need?
- wolfhounds

The reason I disagree with this is because you can trade. As long as trading is allowed you can always address an organizational weakness. So we pick a center who is projected to be amazing, we see how he does in the AHL and if he's on target to be awesome we trade one of our top 6 for some D.
It's not ideal but it does ensure that those most likely to be superstars don't get passed up...

In terms of sheer offensive upside, I'd put Pulock ahead of Nurse and way ahead of Ristolainen (who is more puck-mover than a potential 35+ point offensive producer despite what you see in the highlights package).
- bmeltzer

I havent seen either play (other than youtube ) , but why do scouts rank nurse highr than pullock and risto(some sweet hands)?

If the Russian kid Nish. (Name is totally escaping me) falls past 6 do you take him over a D man? KHL issues aside I've seen a lot of Malkin comparisons. I think a few have mentioned Rick Nash too.

If the Russian kid Nish. (Name is totally escaping me) falls past 6 do you take him over a D man? KHL issues aside I've seen a lot of Malkin comparisons. I think a few have mentioned Rick Nash too.
- hereticpride

isnt he committed to a two year khl contract?