According to capgeek if we do all that I said in my previous post, sign Nabokov to a 2 year, 6 mil deal, then next offseason resign G for 7mil/yr, BS for 3.5-4mil/yr, Coots for 3.5-4mil/yr, and then sign Letang to a 7.5-8mil/yr deal next offseason, we would still have around 3-5 mil in cap space to sign or bring up a #6 dman and resign Mason. Really seems like patience is the best way to go here.
- JAKEw1234

Getzlaf signed an 8 yr contract worth $8.25 million/yr. I would have a hard time believing G's agent would have him sign a contract that much lower in yearly value then Getzlaf. In my opinion, he gets closer to $8 million/yr.

How far have you watched? I'm more of a Tyrion fan myself, but Jaime gets more interesting as time goes on.
- TheGreat28

i'm up to date...i've watched it as it's aired since the beginning

i love characters like him (i loved e.b. on deadwood too). obviously not my favorite if i'm judging his personal qualities, i just find him hilarious. and he gets funnier as the series goes on

there are tons of interesting characters on the show, however. i really need to read the books

i'm up to date...i've watched it as it's aired since the beginning

i love characters like him (i loved e.b. on deadwood too). obviously not my favorite if i'm judging his personal qualities, i just find him hilarious. and he gets funnier as the series goes on

there are tons of interesting characters on the show, however. i really need to read the books
- FlyerMike18

I love the old dude who works at EBs place

I love the old dude who works at EBs place
- KINGKENZO

richardson? great character

richardson? great character
- FlyerMike18

That's him hahahaha

Getzlaf signed an 8 yr contract worth $8.25 million/yr. I would have a hard time believing G's agent would have him sign a contract that much lower in yearly value then Getzlaf. In my opinion, he gets closer to $8 million/yr.
- ravishingone

Even so we would still have quite a comfortable cap cushion.

According to capgeek if we do all that I said in my previous post, sign Nabokov to a 2 year, 6 mil deal, then next offseason resign G for 7mil/yr, BS for 3.5-4mil/yr, Coots for 3.5-4mil/yr, and then sign Letang to a 7.5-8mil/yr deal next offseason, we would still have around 3-5 mil in cap space to sign or bring up a #6 dman and resign Mason. Really seems like patience is the best way to go here.
- JAKEw1234

I love how smoothly this was thrown in.

I love the old dude who works at EBs place
- KINGKENZO

EB


i miss Deadwood

Is the 11th pick for 19 and 27 worth it?

EB


i miss Deadwood
- Crimsoninja

It should have had a higher ranking on the best written shows list

With all due respect to Bill, I have to disagree on a few things.

Broad Street hockey did a detailed analysis of Couturier's advanced stats this season. What they found supported the belief that, at age 20, Couturier is already one of the top defensive centers in the NHL. Couturier and the Flyers had a rough start to the season on the penalty kill, but the club picked things up dramatically and ended up near the top of the NHL in PK percentage.
- Bill Meltzer

I think that "analysis" wasn't very detailed, and was inherently flawed.

Why?

The article was done early on in a shortened season, and thus, is a very small sample size.

They used Corsi Rel QoC as one of the primary backing statistics to support their premise of Couturier establishing himself as an "elite" defensive player because it indicates he goes up against top competition.

The article cited Couturier's ranking in this category as 18th in the NHL, however, the season ending rank for Couturier in this category was 62nd, which is a big difference...indicating that 61 forwards in the NHL faced tougher competiion (if you go by CorsiRelQoC).

Also, the fact that he may have faced solid competion does not, in itself, indicate he's high performing as a defensive forward...in other words, it may indicate the type of competition a player may face, but it doesn't indicate how they fared against them. I point
to Couturier's GA/ON60 (5v5) number, or goals scored against the team while he's on the ice for 60 mins, which was 3.09, a very poor number that ranks him 383rd amongst all NHL forwards. Not exactly elite, even when you consider he faced the 61st toughest competition in the league.


Some other advanced (5v5) stats to chew on:

His Corsi On, meaning the differential of how many shots were taken by the opposition versus how many his own team took, while he was on the ice, was ranked 285th in the league (forwards only).

His Corsi Relative, indicates his Corsi while on the ice to his team's overall Corsi when he's off the ice. In this category Couturier ranked as the154th forward in the NHL.

Couturier's plus-minus rating at even strength took a steep downturn this year. However, when you look at actual meat-and-potatoes of the player's shifts on the ice, there were only a handful of opposition goals scored directly as a result of a turnover or blown coverage by Couturier. The mistakes usually happened elsewhere.
- Bill Meltzer

Well, there were still that "handful" of goals (in a shortened season) where Couturier was the primary culprit, and numerous other mistakes that, luckily, didn't end up in the back of the net. Not exactly the hallmark of young forward developing an elite defensive game.

Plus-minus numbers aside, Couturier's defensive development actually continued at a solid clip from his strong defensive rookie season. In plain English terms, here's why:

* He was the Flyers center most likely to be on the ice against other teams' top scoring lines, game in and game out.


- Bill Meltzer

Again, Couturier may have drawn the tougher assignments as the coach put him out there against top lines at times, but that tells us nothing about how he actually did against them. I know Coots seems to have a special thing with Malkin and really gets up to play him, but maybe Lavy playing the 20 yr old against the NHL's top players on a regular basis wasn't the greatest idea? Indeed, Couturier's GA/ON60 (5v5) number of 3.09 seems to indicate he fared quite poorly in defending against his (62nd toughest) competition.

From what I can tell, this indicates the premise of the BSH article, that Couturier is establishing himself as an elite defensive forward and the premise of Couturier being on track for "sustained defensive dominance", is off the mark. Yes, he's playing against some decent compeition, but he's not doing particularly well in defending against them. Indeed, there are a substantial number of forwards in the league who had as high or higher CorsiRelQoC (indicating they faced as tough or tougher competition), but who also have significantly lower GA/ON60 (inidcating that less goals were allowed while the player was on the ice). There are probably 40+ forwards in the league who faced better competition (higher CorsiRelQoC) and did better against them (GA/ON60)...among the best in this differential are players like Pavel Datsyuk (ranks #1), David Backes, Boyd Gordon, Mike Fisher, Charlie Coyle, Josh Bailey, Alex Burrows, Patrick Sharp, Steve Ott, Anze Kopitar, Gabriel Landeskog, H Sedin, Logan Coture, Radim Vrbata. Pretty good company. Now looking at players further down the list, with a quotient of CorsiRelQoC and GA/ON60 similar to Couturier, and we see his defensive peers are players like Curtis Glencross, Jamie McGinn, Lee Stempniak, Jason Pominville, Marcel Goc, P.A. Parenteau, JVR, Anisimov, Tanguay, Brodziak, Fleischmann. Not exactly your Selke nominees/dominant defensive types.

* A huge percentage of Couturier's shifts started out in the Flyers defensive zone. It is often VERY tough for a player to score on those shifts, especially when a team struggles on breakouts, when you are going up against the other side's most potent offensive talents and when your own faceoff skills are still a work in progress.

- Bill Meltzer

A top defensive forward is a guy you depend on to win key defensive zone faceoffs...Couturier's 46% win percentage in defensive zone faceoffs doesn't qualify him as anywhere near elite in this aspect.

* Despite the disadvantageous zone starts, difficulty of opposition, Couturier's poor faceoff numbers and the Flyers' issues with getting the puck cleanly out of the defensive zone, the Flyers actually had more shot attempts and shots on goal than their opponents in Couturier's shifts.
- Bill Meltzer

That's interesting, and could point to some good things, but then again, there were more goals scored against the Flyers (per 60 min) when Couturier was on the ice, versus when he was off the ice.

Although Couturier only started 32.1 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone (13th among Flyers forwards who played in 20 or more games), he finished in the offensive zone 44.7 percent of the time.
- Bill Meltzer

That's interesting but not too exciting...
Max Talbot had a 33% higher CorsiRelQoC and had a similar zone start/finish ratio... 35.2% offensive zone starts, finished in the offensive zone 46.3.

* Giveaways and takeaways are a subjective stat, but it should be noted that Couturier's puck-protection and puck-pursuit numbers were quite good. He was charged with just 19 giveaways and credited with 26 takeaways. Considering that he was often in the defensive zone under heavy pressure and facing lengthy shifts, this ratio suggests both his poise and his skill at getting the puck away from the player he's checking.
- Bill Meltzer

Obviously you're going to have the opportunity to take away the puck from an opponent in the defensive zone a lot more than you would in the offensive zone, so given his high % of def zone starts, it's not surprising. Still, his takeaways were 2.14 (per 60), which ranks him about 60-70th forward in the NHL...ok, but not overly impressive.

* What this means: Much of the time with Couturier on the ice, the Flyers were still able to get out of their defensive zone and push the puck to the other end of the ice. Yes, he was a minus-eight on the season but that was due to not having enough pluses rather than an actual downturn in his defensive play. Overall, Couturier is already the best defensive forward on the Flyers, and will only continue to improve in the years to come.
- Bill Meltzer

While basic plus/minus isn't always a good indicator, I don't know if you can simply discount the -8 due to not having the pluses...his GA/ON60 (goals against per 60 mins of icetime played) last season was MUCH better than this season, and, unlike plus minus, that doesn't depend on goals scored or pluses to calculate.

The bottom line as I see it, is the Couturier is a good player that is still very young, and has some nice upside potential. Having said that, I believe that many overrate his current level of play as well as his potential, thus overvaluing the player in talks of potential trades and the like. In particular, I think many fans tend to inflate his defensive acumen, to the point where "Selke" is associated with him in many discussions...(I wonder how many neutral observers have used that term in relation to him). I am not trying to say that Couturier will be a bust, or that he won't be a good, possibly very good two-way player someday, but I think it's prudent, as fans and within the organziation, to reel in the expectations somewhat and not project our hopes and hypes onto the young player, as this bias tends to distort reality and could be counter productive. I think a realistic expectation for Couturier's ceiling is 50+ point forward with a decent (not dominant) defensive game. Anything more, I believe, is largely based on hopeful specualtion of Flyer fans. I'm as big a fan as anyone, but I'm trying to manage my expectations and keep things in perspective and not take his and other young players upside for granted. In my estimation, Coots has a looong way to go to fulfill his upside promise based on his current play, and there's certainly no guarantee he ever will.
I hope he does, as a Flyer...but there's that chance he doesn't...it's not like his play thus far has given definitive indications. That's why I'd be willing to trade Couturier in a deal for say, a Keith Yandle. While the former is a young player valued on mostly his youth, draft pedigree and potential, the latter is a player entering his prime who is valued on his proven ability to perform in the NHL...also considered is the premium required to acquire an upper echelon D man in trade is high. I would consider Schenn in the same category and would do a straight up deal for Yandle with him too....personally, I don't think the Yotes do it...they'd probably ask for a 1st rd'er and/or another good young prospect or roster player on top of Coots or Schenn...I'd be hesitant to go much beyond maybe a 2nd rd pick or B level prospect or 3rd/4th liner as a sweetener...perhaps if they'd take Meszaros or Coby that could work too...but I'm not giving both Coots sand Schenn or a package consisting of one of them plus other A level assets...if there's no deal to be made, on those terms, then so be it.

I love how smoothly this was thrown in.
- hereticpride

sorry I'll have more build-up next time. Next offseason's gonna be a big one for UFAs. As far as dmen go, Letang, Pheneuf, and Jbo are just the beginning of the good names entering the UFA market. Lundqvist and Miller are both UFAS. At forward, Malkin, Heatley, Vanek, Gaborik, Thornton, Marleau, Statsny, both Sedins, Kessel, Bergeron, M Michalek, Callahan, Pavelski, Brown, Steen, Moulson, Vrbata, Kulemin, and some others are, as of this moment, all theoretically available next offseason. How many will stay pat on their teams? Probably quite a few if not most. Either way, it should be a great UFA year and the best plan for us would be to clear up as much cap space as possible in order to poach for a great name or two.

sorry I'll have more build-up next time. Next offseason's gonna be a big one for UFAs. As far as dmen go, Letang, Pheneuf, and Jbo are just the beginning of the good names entering the UFA market. Lundqvist and Miller are both UFAS. At forward, Malkin, Heatley, Vanek, Gaborik, Thornton, Marleau, Statsny, both Sedins, Kessel, Bergeron, M Michalek, Callahan, Pavelski, Brown, Steen, Moulson, Vrbata, Kulemin, and some others are, as of this moment, all theoretically available next offseason. How many will stay pat on their teams? Probably quite a few if not most. Either way, it should be a great UFA year and the best plan for us would be to clear up as much cap space as possible in order to poach for a great name or two.
- JAKEw1234

whew, thats a lot of UFA's but a long way to go, I see the bulk of them getting resigned with there old teams, it's been happening that way for a while, lots of time between now & then

Anything more, I believe, is largely based on hopeful specualtion of Flyer fans.
- exlund

I agree that orange-tinted glasses may have some effect, but Couturier is the guy that all teams want first from us right now, which has to mean something still looks good beyond the orange glasses.

With all due respect to Bill, I have to disagree on a few things.




I think that "analysis" wasn't very detailed, and was inherently flawed.

Why?

The article was done early on in a shortened season, and thus, is a very small sample size.

They used Corsi Rel QoC as one of the primary backing statistics to support their premise of Couturier establishing himself as an "elite" defensive player because it indicates he goes up against top competition.

The article cited Couturier's ranking in this category as 18th in the NHL, however, the season ending rank for Couturier in this category was 62nd, which is a big difference...indicating that 61 forwards in the NHL faced tougher competiion (if you go by RelativeCorsi).

Also, the fact that he may have faced solid competion does not, in itself, indicate he's a high performing as a defensive forward...in other words, it may indicate the type of competition a player may face, but it doesn't indicate how they fared against them. I point
to Couturier's GA/ON60 (5v5) number, or goals scored against the team while he's on the ice for 60 mins, which was 3.09, a very poor number that ranks him 383rd amongst all NHL forwards. Not exactly elite, even when you consider he faced the 61st toughest competition in the league.


Some other advanced (5v5) stats to chew on:

His Corsi On, meaning the differential of how many shots were taken by the opposition versus how many his own team took, while he was on the ice, was ranked 285th in the league (forwards only).

His Corsi Relative, indicates his Corsi while on the ice to his team's overall Corsi when he's off the ice. In this category Couturier ranked as the154th forward in the NHL.




Well, there were still that "handful" of goals (in a shortened season) where Couturier was the primary culprit, and numerous other mistakes that, luckily, didn't end up in the back of the net. Not exactly the hallmark of young forward developing an elite defensive game.




Again, Couturier may have drawn the tougher assignments as the coach put him out there against top lines at times, but that tells us nothing about how he actually did against them. I know Coots seems to have a special thing with Malkin and really gets up to play him, but maybe Lavy playing the 20 yr old against the NHL's top players on a regular basis wasn't the greatest idea? Indeed, Couturier's GA/ON60 (5v5) number of 3.09 seems to indicate he fared quite poorly in defending against his (62nd toughest) competition.

From what I can tell, this indicates the premise of the BSH article, that Couturier is establishing himself as an elite defensive forward and the premise of Couturier being on track for "sustained defensive dominance", is off the mark. Yes, he's playing against some decent compeition, but he's not doing particularly well in defending against them. Indeed, there are a substantial number of forwards in the league who had as high or higher CorsiRelQoC (indicating they faced as tough or tougher competition), but who also have significantly lower GA/ON60 (inidcating that less goals were allowed while the player was on the ice). There are probably 40+ forwards in the league who faced better competition (higher CorsiRelQoC) and did better against them (GA/ON60)...among the best in this differential are players like Pavel Datsyuk (ranks #1), David Backes, Boyd Gordon, Mike Fisher, Charlie Coyle, Josh Bailey, Alex Burrows, Patrick Sharp, Steve Ott, Anze Kopitar, Gabriel Landeskog, H Sedin, Logan Coture, Radim Vrbata. Pretty good company. Now looking at players further down the list, with a quotient of CorsiRelQoC and GA/ON60 similar to Couturier, and we see his defensive peers are players like Curtis Glencross, Jamie McGinn, Lee Stempniak, Jason Pominville, Marcel Goc, P.A. Parenteau, JVR, Anisimov, Tanguay, Brodziak, Fleischmann. Not exactly your Selke nominees dominant defensive types.




A top defensive forward is a guy you depend on to win key defensive zone faceoffs...Couturier's 46% win percentage in defensive zone faceoffs doesn't qualify him as anywhere near elite in this aspect.




That's interesting, and could point to some good things, but then again, there were more goals scored against the Flyers (per 60 min) when Couturier was on the ice, versus when he was off the ice.



That's interesting but not too exciting...
Max Talbot had a 33% higher CorsiRelQoC and had a similar azone start/finish ratio... 35.2% offensive zone starts, finished in the offensive zone 46.3.




Obviously you're going to have the opportunity to take away the puck from an opponent in the defensive zone a lot more than you would in the offensive zone, so given his high % of def zone starts, it's not surprising. Still, his takeaways were 2.14 (per 60), which ranks him about 60-70th forward in the NHL...ok, but not overly impressive.





While basic plus/minus isn't always a good indicator, I don't know if you can simply discount the -8 due to not having the pluses...his GA/ON60 (goals against per 60 mins of icetime played) last season was MUCH better than this season, and, unlike plus minus, that doesn't depend on goals scored or pluses to calculate.

The bottom line as I see it, is the Couturier is a good player that is still very young, and has some nice upside potential. Having said that, I believe that many overrate his current level of play as well as his potential, thus overvaluing the player in talks of potential trades and the like. In particular, I think many fans tend to inflate his defensive acumen, to the point where "Selke" is associated with him in many discussions...(I wonder by how many neutral observers have used that term in relation to him). I am not trying to say that Couturier will be a bust, or that he won't be a good, possibly very good two-way player someday, but I think it's prudent, as fans and within the organziation, to reel in the expectations somewhat and not project our hopes and hypes onto the young player, as this bias tends to distort reality and could be counter productive. I think a realistic expectation for Couturier's ceiling is 50+ point forward with a decent (not dominant) defensive game. Anything more, I believe, is largely based on hopeful specualtion of Flyer fans. I'm as big a fan as anyone, but I'm trying to manage my expectations and keep things in perspective and not take his and other young players upside for granted. In my estimation, Coots has a looong way to go to fulfill his upside promise based on his current play, and there's certainly no guarantee he ever will.
I hope he does, as a Flyer...but there's that chance he doesn't...it's not like his play thus far has given definitive indications. That's why I'd be willing to trade Couturier in a deal for say, a Keith Yandle. While the former is a young player valued on mostly his youth, draft pedigree and potential, the latter is a player entering his prime who is valued on his proven ability to perform in the NHL...also considered is the premium required to acquire an upper echelon D man in trade is high. I would consider Schenn in the same category and would do a straight up deal for Yandle with him too....personally, I don't think the Yotes do it...they'd probably ask for a 1st rd'er and/or another good young prospect or roster player on top of Coots or Schenn...I'd be hesitant to go much beyond maybe a 2nd rd pick or B level prospect or 3rd/4th liner as a sweetener...perhaps if they'd take Meszaros or Coby that could work too...but I'm not giving both Coots sand Schenn or a package consisting of one of them plus other A level assets...if there's no deal to be made, on those terms, then so be it.
- exlund

I'm all for Yandle, (lord knows this team needs a player of that ilk), but he will be very $$$ to obtain, I see them only doing it (Phoenix), if we offer more than we wish to give up.

whew, thats a lot of UFA's but a long way to go, I see the bulk of them getting resigned with there old teams, it's been happening that way for a while, lots of time between now & then
- puckhead17

I agree, but some will slip through (I.e I don't think Malkin AND Letang will return to Pitt, maybe one; The Sedins will probably resign, but maybe they want to move somewhere to actually try to win something in the latter part of their career instead of being part of a Vancouver rebuild at this point in their careers; it's possible Hank wants to move to a team that he doesn't have to carry on his shoulders every season, etc.) And priority #1 should be to pick up that great player that is bound to slip through the net.

I'm all for Yandle, (lord knows this team needs a player of that ilk), but he will be very $$$ to obtain, I see them only doing it (Phoenix), if we offer more than we wish to give up.
- puckhead17

guarantee you didn't read all of that

Is the 11th pick for 19 and 27 worth it?
- jstross

I wouldn't. The team needs a top prospect with a very high ceiling. Whether its a D man to develop or a forward to replace whichever forward gets moved in the inevitable trade for D. 11 gives you the best shot at that.

I would probably consider moving next year's 2nd with the 41st to move up to the tail end of the 1st if possible... if the right player is available.

I agree, but some will slip through (I.e I don't think Malkin AND Letang will return to Pitt, maybe one; The Sedins will probably resign, but maybe they want to move somewhere to actually try to win something in the latter part of their career instead of being part of a Vancouver rebuild at this point in their careers; it's possible Hank wants to move to a team that he doesn't have to carry on his shoulders every season, etc.) And priority #1 should be to pick up that great player that is bound to slip through the net.
- JAKEw1234

If the Penguins keep Malkin & Letang, then the cap must be going way up again, I don't see either taking a hometown discount, (Letang did it already), I can't see anyone wanting the Sedins (esp. as a package), unless maybe a southern team (Nashville, Florida), looking to create a buzz), it seems there were several D men we were all looking at 2 years ago as UFA's but ultimately resigning with there old teams

Edit, actually, the Sedins & Nashville almost seem doomed together, they need offense & the Sedins need less exposure

guarantee you didn't read all of that
- FlyerMike18

No, my head was spinning, only the Yandle parts

If the Penguins keep Malkin & Letang, then the cap must be going way up again, I don't see either taking a hometown discount, (Letang did it already), I can't see anyone wanting the Sedins (esp. as a package), unless maybe a southern team (Nashville, Florida), looking to create a buzz), it seems there were several D men we were all looking at 2 years ago as UFA's but ultimately resigning with there old teams

Edit, actually, the Sedins & Nashville almost seem doomed together, they need offense & the Sedins need less exposure
- puckhead17

If the Pens are going to move on from either of Malkin or Letang their rights will be traded to a team willing to give them a max contract long before they hit free agency. The Pens will not let those guys walk for nothing.

If the Pens are going to move on from either of Malkin or Letang their rights will be traded to a team willing to give them a max contract long before they hit free agency. The Pens will not let those guys walk for nothing.
- hereticpride

No you are correct on that!

edit imagine the package for Malkin

If the Penguins keep Malkin & Letang, then the cap must be going way up again, I don't see either taking a hometown discount, (Letang did it already), I can't see anyone wanting the Sedins (esp. as a package), unless maybe a southern team (Nashville, Florida), looking to create a buzz), it seems there were several D men we were all looking at 2 years ago as UFA's but ultimately resigning with there old teams

Edit, actually, the Sedins & Nashville almost seem doomed together, they need offense & the Sedins need less exposure
- puckhead17

I agree on Malkin and Letang, I think there's actually a significant possibility neither of them returns. Letang I understand isn't content, and Malkin could want to go to a team where he's the #1 go-to leader. It's a role he deserves, and could with a doubt fill, but won't find in Pitssburgh. Notice how whenever Crosby gets injured, and more responsibility is placed on Malkin, his numbers skyrocket. I think he might pursue that role on a new team. I think lots of teams will want the Sedins. Despite them being in the latter-part of their careers, they're still two of the best in the league, and could be the last couple pieces that turn teams like Tampa and Nashville into real playoff contenders. I'm sure they'd get offers. I agree, though, that many UFAs will end up resigning.

edit imagine the package for Malkin
- puckhead17

No thank you.

I agree on Malkin and Letang, I think there's actually a significant possibility neither of them returns. Letang I understand isn't content, and Malkin could want to go to a team where he's the #1 go-to leader. It's a role he deserves, and could with a doubt fill, but won't find in Pitssburgh. Notice how whenever Crosby gets injured, and more responsibility is placed on Malkin, his numbers skyrocket. I think he might pursue that role on a new team. I think lots of teams will want the Sedins. Despite them being in the latter-part of their careers, they're still two of the best in the league, and could be the last couple pieces that turn teams like Tampa and Nashville into real playoff contenders. I'm sure they'd get offers. I agree, though, that many UFAs will end up resigning.
- JAKEw1234

I agree on Malkin, (but Pitt would be taking a huge risk already letting Staal go & Crysby another head shot away from disneyland)
you mention Letang isn't content, why? (or where did you hear this?)

also, most big $$$ teams usually already have there top lines & top $ players signed, & the Sedins are perfect to inject new life into a down market that needs to spend, (Nashville)