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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: Wiz' Hawk Draftee Scouting Reports
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Beaver-Warrior
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: in my great and unmatched wisdom
Joined: 07.28.2011

Jul 2 @ 12:21 AM ET
Not true. How many players would Stan not even talk about trading right now? After 2010 Stan identified the players he was going to retool the roster around. The subsequent OS mess with Hammer ended up costing them Ladd and Niemi.

Now, the same thing. The Hawks aren't nearly in the cap straights that they were three years ago, allowing Stan to expand this "untouchable" list further. Short of a steal deal, do you really see any of the following moving? I'm talking about Toews, Kane, Saad, Hossa, Sharp, Bickell, Kruger, Shaw, Keith, Seabrook, Hammer and Crawford.

That's a dozen off the 2013 roster. Very solid base moving forward, while keeping a degree of cap flexibility.

- NewToHockey


Make the right offer I would think Stan & Co. would listen. Only the Capt and perhaps Hoss due to his ugly contract would not be in play. Just my take.
tomcat24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Gomer's Pyle, IL
Joined: 06.04.2012

Jul 2 @ 12:29 AM ET
Also, Stan was quoted in today's Tribune as saying the trades yesterday were mostly about opening up roster spots for the kids in Rockford to advance. I found it interesting that he mentioned Pirri, Smith, Hayes and Morin in that order.
- NewToHockey

Smith is definitely ready for a spot. I wouldn't mind him with shaw and Saad. I like Morin's toughness. Too bad he shoots so much and loses possession. Pirri just seems to produce and succeed everywhere he has been. People always doubt him but he gets it done. Not saying I want to see him center hossa and sharp, though. I still want to see them trade for a young center. Too bad we don't have a lot of pieces to trade. I still would look into a swap of Tt and Bjugstad on florida. Not saying they trade him or it would be a 1-for-1 swap but dale really likes TT
UnnamedSource
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Local Mall, IL
Joined: 01.03.2012

Jul 2 @ 12:38 AM ET
Also, Stan was quoted in today's Tribune as saying the trades yesterday were mostly about opening up roster spots for the kids in Rockford to advance. I found it interesting that he mentioned Pirri, Smith, Hayes and Morin in that order.
- NewToHockey



If you want an indication on Pirri's future, google "John B. Sollenberger" ....an award which is given to the AHL's top scorer.......Then look up previous award winners and look to see if there is any player in the past 20 years who has made any impact other than the amount of space they take up in a locker room. You will find 1 name....Jason Spezza. What am I trying to say? This award gives no indication Pirri will be any good, in fact it's kinda says the opposite......I'm sure the Hawks will give him a look, heck he may even play in a handful of games.......maybe a dozen or so but at the end of the day there is nothing there. If there are no additions from now until camp Shaw or Kruger will be your 2C and 3C....maybe they rush Danault up or another rookie because they have done it in the past but Pirri is not a serious prospect in the Hawks system.
rollpards19
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Where ever doesn't get me hit, IL
Joined: 05.03.2012

Jul 2 @ 12:43 AM ET
By your definition IMO, the core is reduced to one player. The Captain.
- Beaver-Warrior

Good, he's pretty much the only one you can't get fair value back for. Maybe Keith too.
UnnamedSource
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Local Mall, IL
Joined: 01.03.2012

Jul 2 @ 12:46 AM ET
Smith is definitely ready for a spot. I wouldn't mind him with shaw and Saad. I like Morin's toughness. Too bad he shoots so much and loses possession. Pirri just seems to produce and succeed everywhere he has been. People always doubt him but he gets it done. Not saying I want to see him center hossa and sharp, though. I still want to see them trade for a young center. Too bad we don't have a lot of pieces to trade. I still would look into a swap of Tt and Bjugstad on florida. Not saying they trade him or it would be a 1-for-1 swap but dale really likes TT
- tomcat24



Hawks won't be trading for a young center....if anything they sign a bridge player to fill a roster spot until one the following players are ready...Danault, McNeil, Nordstrom, Leblanc, TT, Kevin Hayes ......... you would think one of them or possibly two would be able to fill a need
Tugboat
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jul 2 @ 12:56 AM ET
Until yesterday the Hawks front office since 2010 defined the core as follows...

Keith, Seabrook, Toews, Kane , Sharp, Hossa and Bolland.

Change Bolland for Hammer and that would be my core today.

on Twitter@AlCimaglia

- Al


The you, me, and the FO are on the same page, LOL. But now you have to add Bicks, don't you? 4 mil for four years with the expectation of top 6 minutes is certainly core money, is it not?

I'm not worried about Bickell. It's not so much that he stepped up, but how he stepped up, with the combination of physical play, board battling, back checking, net presence and scoring touch. Sometimes a couple of flukey goals can make a player look better than he is in the box score, but Bicks' emergence wasn't like that at all. He's proven himself to be a damn good PF, and I'm thrilled that he's locked up.
Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Jul 2 @ 12:56 AM ET
Not picking on Leddy but the comment I made before about his intelligence was not based at all about his school performance. Again, someone who is very close to the situation qualifies it as a legitimate concern and people have voiced concern within the organization. Some in the FO think he will be able to overcome and reach his potential, others are not so sure.
- UnnamedSource


If that is a real concern, rather than an opinion of some he won't be resigned...Or if resigned then now would be the time to move him.

There are very few secrets in the NHL and this wouldn't be one of them...If you have heard it others have also and the lsit of suitors would be shrinking.
Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Jul 2 @ 12:57 AM ET
The you, me, and the FO are on the same page, LOL. But now you have to add Bicks, don't you? 4 mil for four years with the expectation of top 6 minutes is certainly core money, is it not?

I'm not worried about Bickell. It's not so much that he stepped up, but how he stepped up, with the combination of physical play, board battling, back checking, net presence and scoring touch. Sometimes a couple of flukey goals can make a player look better than he is in the box score, but Bicks' emergence wasn't like that at all. He's proven himself to be a damn good PF, and I'm thrilled that he's locked up.

- Tugboat


Probably....
Tugboat
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jul 2 @ 1:04 AM ET
If you want an indication on Pirri's future, google "John B. Sollenberger" ....an award which is given to the AHL's top scorer.......Then look up previous award winners and look to see if there is any player in the past 20 years who has made any impact other than the amount of space they take up in a locker room. You will find 1 name....Jason Spezza. What am I trying to say? This award gives no indication Pirri will be any good, in fact it's kinda says the opposite......I'm sure the Hawks will give him a look, heck he may even play in a handful of games.......maybe a dozen or so but at the end of the day there is nothing there. If there are no additions from now until camp Shaw or Kruger will be your 2C and 3C....maybe they rush Danault up or another rookie because they have done it in the past but Pirri is not a serious prospect in the Hawks system.
- UnnamedSource


Nah. Those statistics don't quite say this. While they do indicate that an AHL scoring title is not a sufficient condition to guarantee NHL success, they in no way indicate that the opposite is true, unless you can demonstrate, for instance, that the 14th highest AHL scorer each year has a much higher future NHL impact rate than the leading one.

Sorry if I'm coming across as a wiseguy, but the misuse of stats is one of my pet peeves...
UnnamedSource
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Local Mall, IL
Joined: 01.03.2012

Jul 2 @ 1:22 AM ET
Nah. Those statistics don't quite say this. While they do indicate that an AHL scoring title is not a sufficient condition to guarantee NHL success, they in no way indicate that the opposite is true, unless you can demonstrate, for instance, that the 14th highest AHL scorer each year has a much higher future NHL impact rate than the leading one.

Sorry if I'm coming across as a wiseguy, but the misuse of stats is one of my pet peeves...

- Tugboat



It's not a misuse of a stat, but it does show that 95% of the time the player that wins this award never amounts to anything in the NHL. The list doesn't lie and it's not a small sample size either, it is year after year (except one/Jason Spezza). Your original thought that the 14th highest scorer or the 20th, 34th, or the 70th, etc has a higher success rate in the NHL is probably true..... for many different reasons. Eli has seen him play more than anyone....I've seen him play several times over the past two season. There is not a lot that impresses me......and his success in the Hawks system will be very difficult considering the type of player. I don't think he will be anything more than a journeyman NHL player.....
UnnamedSource
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Local Mall, IL
Joined: 01.03.2012

Jul 2 @ 1:30 AM ET
If that is a real concern, rather than an opinion of some he won't be resigned...Or if resigned then now would be the time to move him.

There are very few secrets in the NHL and this wouldn't be one of them...If you have heard it others have also and the lsit of suitors would be shrinking.

- Al



I'm sure you're right about there not being a lot of secrets in the NHL but that is not the argument. Like you said earlier about NHL players not being able to string together complete sentences.....there are two different views on Leddy within the Hawks FO and probably throughout the league.....those that don't view his lack of smarts as a hindrance and those that are not sure if he will be able to fulfill his potential because of it. I believe Bowman is one that doesn't think it will hinder him from reaching his potential and I'm sure the difference of opinion is the same throughout the league. All you need is one to believe in him and that's when there is an offer sheet.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jul 2 @ 1:34 AM ET
Tooting my own horn: I just got off on the 20 minutes alotted me on Sirius XM's Norm at Night, talking NHL Draft, and I killed it!

Thanks, Al for getting me the road in.

wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jul 2 @ 1:39 AM ET
For the start of the season I bring that entire Smith Pirri Morin line in, and let them play themselves off the team.

and to chime in, I know in fact which Blackhawks from 1962 where highly intelligent, and I also think I know who were not.

They all didn't need anything but playing instincts and feel to win most games.

Old time taking a bad penalty at the wrong time, well, that is dumb
Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Jul 2 @ 1:44 AM ET
I'm sure you're right about there not being a lot of secrets in the NHL but that is not the argument. Like you said earlier about NHL players not being able to string together complete sentences.....there are two different views on Leddy within the Hawks FO and probably throughout the league.....those that don't view his lack of smarts as a hindrance and those that are not sure if he will be able to fulfill his potential because of it. I believe Bowman is one that doesn't think it will hinder him from reaching his potential and I'm sure the difference of opinion is the same throughout the league. All you need is one to believe in him and that's when there is an offer sheet.
- UnnamedSource


You have beat this drum loudly for awhile...

If there is a real concern they don't commit about $ 9 mill to keeping him. ...and if the opinion is shared by a only a few around the league then there will be a lack of interest.

I think there will be a lot of interest if Leddy is made available, which BTW I have not heard is the case.

Fact is this...This is the NHL and not the NFL where a Devin Hester can't learn the playbook and run routes correctly.

If a player screws up when the pressure is dialed up or makes the same turnovers over and over or is poor fundamnetally like a Stalberg ...That is a bigger concern to me.

I don't see those things as an issue with Leddy.

The part about not being good in school doesn't mean much to me and I don't see making stupid mistakes as being a factor in his play on the ice.

If the people in the Hawks front office who are the decision makers think differently this is a perfect opportunity to get out with a nice return.

If that happens I will give credence to what you have heard.
Tugboat
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jul 2 @ 1:53 AM ET
It's not a misuse of a stat, but it does show that 95% of the time the player that wins this award never amounts to anything in the NHL. The list doesn't lie and it's not a small sample size either, it is year after year (except one/Jason Spezza). Your original thought that the 14th highest scorer or the 20th, 34th, or the 70th, etc has a higher success rate in the NHL is probably true..... for many different reasons. Eli has seen him play more than anyone....I've seen him play several times over the past two season. There is not a lot that impresses me......and his success in the Hawks system will be very difficult considering the type of player. I don't think he will be anything more than a journeyman NHL player.....
- UnnamedSource


If you're saying you've seen him and are unimpressed, then that's valid opinion to have, and you may well be right. I'm not arguing that. I don't have the opportunity to watch AHL hockey, so I defer to more expert opinions on stuff like that.

Just saying that in terms of the science of statistics, the negative correlation is technically, mathematically untrue in this case... I'm sure that it's true that most players from the AHL who excel in the NHL DON'T win AHL scoring titles, but of course this group consists of a much larger pool of players from which to select. And if you made a list of the players who finished 2nd through 25th in AHL, I am also sure you'd find more NHL success, because again, those players form as much larger pool. But for the negative correlation to be statistically valid, you would have to demonstrate that one specific ranking, and only one (say 9th, but only 9th— not 8th or 10th) has a statistically significant higher success rate for your point to have validity on the purely statistical level.

I will grant you this, though: Scorers in any of the major team sports tend to have a higher percentage of one dimensional players because the one thing they do well has enough of a "wow" factor to enable them to go further than similarly one dimensional players who's specialty isn't as exciting. In baseball, a one dimensional great home run hitter is more likely to get to AAA than a one dimensional great bunter. So if the bunter makes it to AAA at all, there's probably a much higher chance that he's a well-rounded player who does several things really well, and thus is more likely to make it to the majors. So on that level, I see your point and agree with it. I just don't buy the statistical aspect.
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Jul 2 @ 1:54 AM ET
I'm sure you're right about there not being a lot of secrets in the NHL but that is not the argument. Like you said earlier about NHL players not being able to string together complete sentences.....there are two different views on Leddy within the Hawks FO and probably throughout the league.....those that don't view his lack of smarts as a hindrance and those that are not sure if he will be able to fulfill his potential because of it. I believe Bowman is one that doesn't think it will hinder him from reaching his potential and I'm sure the difference of opinion is the same throughout the league. All you need is one to believe in him and that's when there is an offer sheet.
- UnnamedSource


So I guess we are all pretty sure now that Leddy's I.Q. is 1 above lettuce?

I think Q should get an award and a raise for his excellent work in dealing with special needs players like Leddy and Stalberg and probably Dan Carcillo.
Tugboat
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jul 2 @ 2:02 AM ET
So I guess we are all pretty sure now that Leddy's I.Q. is 1 above lettuce?

I think Q should get an award and a raise for his excellent work in dealing with special needs players like Leddy and Stalberg and probably Dan Carcillo.

- RickJ


This made me laugh out loud. Thanks!
NewToHockey
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.23.2010

Jul 2 @ 3:26 AM ET
Good, he's pretty much the only one you can't get fair value back for. Maybe Keith too.
- rollpards19

Of the other ten players I listed, which could the Hawks trade to get a player who plays better within their system?
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 2 @ 7:15 AM ET
...........And three key players got really big raises and extensions.
- Al


And several million in (apparently) unplanned for bonuses.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 2 @ 7:17 AM ET
I define a core player as one that, when another GM brings up their name, Stan quickly says "not available" and moves on.

By that definition, Shaw is core, since we have heard from a few sources that other GMs are asking about him and it's a non-starter for Stan.

- NewToHockey


Stan should never say "not available" except (probably) for Toews.

He should always listen to what's available - maybe an overwhelming offer - even for Kane, Hossa....

StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 2 @ 7:26 AM ET
It's not a misuse of a stat, but it does show that 95% of the time the player that wins this award never amounts to anything in the NHL. The list doesn't lie and it's not a small sample size either, it is year after year (except one/Jason Spezza). Your original thought that the 14th highest scorer or the 20th, 34th, or the 70th, etc has a higher success rate in the NHL is probably true..... for many different reasons. Eli has seen him play more than anyone....I've seen him play several times over the past two season. There is not a lot that impresses me......and his success in the Hawks system will be very difficult considering the type of player. I don't think he will be anything more than a journeyman NHL player.....
- UnnamedSource


But he must have some good skills - a lot of points in the 2nd best league in the New World - something must translate upward.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 2 @ 7:29 AM ET
Tooting my own horn: I just got off on the 20 minutes alotted me on Sirius XM's Norm at Night, talking NHL Draft, and I killed it!

Thanks, Al for getting me the road in.

- wiz1901


Must have stayed at the right motel chain last nite (don't remember which one).
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Jul 2 @ 7:33 AM ET
Stan should never say "not available" except (probably) for Toews.

He should always listen to what's available - maybe an overwhelming offer - even for Kane, Hossa....

- StLBravesFan
Not saying this as a Hawk fan, but there isn't a single player in the league who I would want the Hawks to trade Toews for. My brother who is a Bruin fan agreed and said he wasn't worried about any Hawk except Toews. He also noted that the Bruins were targeting Toews, not Kane, or Hossa or Keith or .....
mrpaulish
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Itasca, IL
Joined: 01.18.2010

Jul 2 @ 7:36 AM ET
Stan should never say "not available" except (probably) for Toews.

He should always listen to what's available - maybe an overwhelming offer - even for Kane, Hossa....

- StLBravesFan



I agree but the days of the overwhelming offer might be dead anywaysnbecausenof the tragic cap
philco28
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Mississauga, ON
Joined: 12.06.2011

Jul 2 @ 7:44 AM ET
Leddy's 22. He may have one bad break up and decide to start jumping in. Players can change. Campbell looked like a complete wuss in Buffalo. He became far less of one over time.
- tredbrta



interesting
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