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Forums :: Blog World :: Jeff Quirin: Attempting to Make Sense of the Alex Pietrangelo Situation
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Hype97
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Mt. Holly, NJ
Joined: 06.17.2013

Jul 8 @ 1:05 PM ET
You need to understand the difference between negotiating a contract and receiving an Offer Sheet. There's a huge difference.
- djamon


PS...Right outta the CBA for ya...
0.2 Restricted Free Agents

(a) [a.k.a.] Group 2 Players [a.k.a. “RFAs”] […].

(i)

(A) […] Any [RFA can] negotiate and […] sign an SPC with any Club, and any Club [can] negotiate and sign an SPC with any [RFA] […].


[A player is eligible for RFA status according to this chart.] [“Age”] means a Player’s age on September 15 of the calendar year in which he signs [his first] SPC […].


(ii) In order to receive a Right of First Refusal or Draft Choice Compensation, the […] Club [must make qualifying offer by] 5:00 p.m. [Eastern time, all times in the CBA are Eastern…] on the later of June 25 or the first Monday after the Entry Draft […].


Maybe you need to understand negotiating and offer sheets bc the NHL seems to think they are the same thing except that the team losing the player receives compensation dependent on the amount of the offer sheet.

You better call them and tell them they're wrong
acmilano3
Location: lansdale, PA
Joined: 10.03.2007

Jul 8 @ 1:44 PM ET
Not one making $10M a year- lets face it, any less it getting matched. Is COL gonna do that? No way. Calgary? Nope. No one is gonna do that- I should say, the odds are very against it. Which is why Armstrong is smart to sit at 6.5-7.
- isles10289


So your saying the blues ceiling is just under 10 mill? APs agent would be smiling ear to ear if you we're negotiating for the blues.

If the blues would be that adamant about matching almost any offer sheet then that will be used against them in a negotiation.

You just artificially set an extremely high ceiling. That's suicide in any negotiation.

How do you know what Calgary will do?
Antilles
St Louis Blues
Joined: 10.17.2008

Jul 8 @ 1:54 PM ET
So your saying the blues ceiling is just under 10 mill? APs agent would be smiling ear to ear if you we're negotiating for the blues.

If the blues would be that adamant about matching almost any offer sheet then that will be used against them in a negotiation.

You just artificially set an extremely high ceiling. That's suicide in any negotiation.

How do you know what Calgary will do?

- acmilano3


Probably the same way all these posters know what other teams will do and that Blues need to worry about an offer sheet.

Petro's agents coming in and pointing out what other teams might give them in an offersheet doesn't do much. The answer is simple: if he signs an offer-sheet, we will cross that bridge when we come to it. Otherwise, we're not taking hypotheticals into consideration for our negotiations.

There is no good reason for Blues to offer more than what comparable players have gotten in the same situation. There is no reason for AP to accept that offer until he gives other teams a chance to OS him. And there is no reason for other teams to OS Petro. Thus there is no reason to expect anything other than Petro being in a Blues jersey for a comparable amount to what others in his situation make come training camp.
carcus
St Louis Blues
Location: #Winnington
Joined: 02.12.2009

Jul 8 @ 1:54 PM ET
The Blues are not going to lose Petro, and this is par for the coarse for Doug Armstrong and negotiating with RFA's. If it were another offseason, where the cap didn't go down significantly like it did this year, and the majority of contending teams up against the cap already, and not undert the current CBA where there are more restrictions as to how contracts can be, then I would be worried. If this was last offseason, I am sure this would be handled differently. But because of the situation, the Blues can continue to negotiate instead of just giving Petro anything and everything that he wants, like Flyer fans here seem to think is what should be happening.

That is understandable though, as that is what they see from their own team.

Blues will work out a deal with Petro, and afterward we are likely to hear from other fans about how shocked they are at the price.

This is what happens when you have an intellegent GM running things.
carcus
St Louis Blues
Location: #Winnington
Joined: 02.12.2009

Jul 8 @ 1:56 PM ET
Oh, and glad to have you back around here Jeff.

cuethenoise
St Louis Blues
Location: MO
Joined: 01.22.2013

Jul 8 @ 1:58 PM ET
The Blues are not going to lose Petro, and this is par for the coarse for Doug Armstrong and negotiating with RFA's. If it were another offseason, where the cap didn't go down significantly like it did this year, and the majority of contending teams up against the cap already, and not undert the current CBA where there are more restrictions as to how contracts can be, then I would be worried. If this was last offseason, I am sure this would be handled differently. But because of the situation, the Blues can continue to negotiate instead of just giving Petro anything and everything that he wants, like Flyer fans here seem to think is what should be happening.

That is understandable though, as that is what they see from their own team.

Blues will work out a deal with Petro, and afterward we are likely to hear from other fans about how shocked they are at the price.

This is what happens when you have an intellegent GM running things.

- carcus


Well said!
Antilles
St Louis Blues
Joined: 10.17.2008

Jul 8 @ 1:59 PM ET
Oh, and glad to have you back around here Jeff.


- carcus


quoted for emphasis.
MetroidPrime
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tim Brent's Basement, Cambridge, ON
Joined: 01.20.2010

Jul 8 @ 2:08 PM ET
AP is a beast, give him what he wants. as a leaf fan id be willing to give gardiner, reilly and our next first for him without a second thought and those guys are essentially our most prized assets.
carcus
St Louis Blues
Location: #Winnington
Joined: 02.12.2009

Jul 8 @ 2:11 PM ET
AP is a beast, give him what he wants. as a leaf fan id be willing to give gardiner, reilly and our next first for him without a second thought and those guys are essentially our most prized assets.
- MetroidPrime


When negotiating, this is not what you do. The Blues want something, Petro wants something. Negotiating is meeting in the middle, which is going to be less than what Petro wants.
Hype97
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Mt. Holly, NJ
Joined: 06.17.2013

Jul 8 @ 2:19 PM ET
Probably the same way all these posters know what other teams will do and that Blues need to worry about an offer sheet.

Petro's agents coming in and pointing out what other teams might give them in an offersheet doesn't do much. The answer is simple: if he signs an offer-sheet, we will cross that bridge when we come to it. Otherwise, we're not taking hypotheticals into consideration for our negotiations.

There is no good reason for Blues to offer more than what comparable players have gotten in the same situation. There is no reason for AP to accept that offer until he gives other teams a chance to OS him. And there is no reason for other teams to OS Petro. Thus there is no reason to expect anything other than Petro being in a Blues jersey for a comparable amount to what others in his situation make come training camp.

- Antilles


I completely agree with everything you just said with the exception of there is no reason for a team to OS. As a compliment to your player I think any team that doesn't kick the tires at least a little is foolish. Ultimately though they would and should match any that come their way so I can understand why you'd view it as pointless to do it.

I was never trying to say that I think he will get an OS just that the possibility is there as it is for every RFA.

My opinion is that if you want him locked for the next 8 years you may need to suck it up and over pay for the first few years to get good value for the remainder.



Hype97
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Mt. Holly, NJ
Joined: 06.17.2013

Jul 8 @ 2:29 PM ET
The Blues are not going to lose Petro, and this is par for the coarse for Doug Armstrong and negotiating with RFA's. If it were another offseason, where the cap didn't go down significantly like it did this year, and the majority of contending teams up against the cap already, and not undert the current CBA where there are more restrictions as to how contracts can be, then I would be worried. If this was last offseason, I am sure this would be handled differently. But because of the situation, the Blues can continue to negotiate instead of just giving Petro anything and everything that he wants, like Flyer fans here seem to think is what should be happening.

That is understandable though, as that is what they see from their own team.

Blues will work out a deal with Petro, and afterward we are likely to hear from other fans about how shocked they are at the price.

This is what happens when you have an intellegent GM running things.

- carcus


Who said give him anything and everything. I saw one Toronto fan say give him what he wants and all I've said is I think he's worth more than 6.5 if you want to lock him up long term.
acmilano3
Location: lansdale, PA
Joined: 10.03.2007

Jul 8 @ 2:32 PM ET
Probably the same way all these posters know what other teams will do and that Blues need to worry about an offer sheet.

Petro's agents coming in and pointing out what other teams might give them in an offersheet doesn't do much. The answer is simple: if he signs an offer-sheet, we will cross that bridge when we come to it. Otherwise, we're not taking hypotheticals into consideration for our negotiations.

There is no good reason for Blues to offer more than what comparable players have gotten in the same situation. There is no reason for AP to accept that offer until he gives other teams a chance to OS him. And there is no reason for other teams to OS Petro. Thus there is no reason to expect anything other than Petro being in a Blues jersey for a comparable amount to what others in his situation make come training camp.

- Antilles


It's the law of supply and demand. Young d who can really skate and play both ways are in demand, thus they have tremendous value.

Doug Armstrong has done a decent job since arriving in 2010. I don't think anyone will argue that point, but is there really any pressure on him? Does the sky fall in St Louis if they don't make the playoffs? Is the goal to win GM of the year or to just win?
From what I can see their cap actually is not really in a great spot right now and for a team that can't get out of the conference semis, I'd hardly canonize Armstrong as the next Sam Pollack.


Antilles
St Louis Blues
Joined: 10.17.2008

Jul 8 @ 2:41 PM ET
I completely agree with everything you just said with the exception of there is no reason for a team to OS. As a compliment to your player I think any team that doesn't kick the tires at least a little is foolish. Ultimately though they would and should match any that come their way so I can understand why you'd view it as pointless to do it.
- Hype97


Does a team get anything positive for their offer-sheet? No. Simple look at offersheets in the salary cap era shows anything even close will just be matched by the original team.

Does the team get anything negative for their offer-sheet? Potentially. There is the direct possibility of the original team giving an offer-sheet to one of their players and forcing them to overpay someone, and the indirect possibility that the overpayment of the extra they put on their original offer-sheet driving up prices and forcing them to pay their own players more come contract time.

Kicking the tires is a lot different from signing a player to an offer-sheet. Sure, you can see if the player is somehow looking for 4mil when the team won't give him 1mil and you think he is worth 6mil... but that just doesn't happen at this level. All GM's know approximately what a player is worth.

What is the point of signing a player to an offer-sheet when you know if it is close to his value it will be matched?
Antilles
St Louis Blues
Joined: 10.17.2008

Jul 8 @ 2:43 PM ET
It's the law of supply and demand. Young d who can really skate and play both ways are in demand, thus they have tremendous value.

Doug Armstrong has done a decent job since arriving in 2010. I don't think anyone will argue that point, but is there really any pressure on him? Does the sky fall in St Louis if they don't make the playoffs? Is the goal to win GM of the year or to just win?
From what I can see their cap actually is not really in a great spot right now and for a team that can't get out of the conference semis, I'd hardly canonize Armstrong as the next Sam Pollack.

- acmilano3


This post has nothing to do with any of the points made in the quoted post it was responding to, not sure what the point of it is.
Stricknasty's Hero
St Louis Blues
Location: MO
Joined: 01.08.2009

Jul 8 @ 2:44 PM ET
WOW!!

Some of these proposals are laughable. Some one said what half of the Philly team for Alex? Then an Olier fan Eberle and Smid and a pick? Really?

Alex will be a Blue. period. As will Stewy. THIS year!!

Dont worry about "our" cap problem. I faith in Army as i do in Hitch!! We do have a surplus of players right now but EVERY team is going to witht he Olympics happening. I see at least 10 players from STL involved. We are going to need healthy bodies.

We have Porter. Reaves and Cracknell on one ways and that may hurt us a lil bit. but there is still Tarasenko and Schwartz that can play down if need be as well a Cole.

The forwards on NO SPECIFIC line is...
Backes- Perron- Oshie
Steen- Stewart- Bergland
Sobotka- Lappiere- Roy
Reaves- Porter- Cracknell

AP- Bow
Shatty- Leopold
Polak- Jackman

not too bad...
kingsfirstcup
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Party
Joined: 02.11.2013

Jul 8 @ 2:55 PM ET
No worries, he's just pulling a Doughty. He'll hold out of training camp and sign a monster deal just before the season starts, then go on to have a pedestrian year. Oh but you'll finish the season off by winning the Cup!
Hype97
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Mt. Holly, NJ
Joined: 06.17.2013

Jul 8 @ 2:56 PM ET
Does a team get anything positive for their offer-sheet? No. Simple look at offersheets in the salary cap era shows anything even close will just be matched by the original team.

Does the team get anything negative for their offer-sheet? Potentially. There is the direct possibility of the original team giving an offer-sheet to one of their players and forcing them to overpay someone, and the indirect possibility that the overpayment of the extra they put on their original offer-sheet driving up prices and forcing them to pay their own players more come contract time.

Kicking the tires is a lot different from signing a player to an offer-sheet. Sure, you can see if the player is somehow looking for 4mil when the team won't give him 1mil and you think he is worth 6mil... but that just doesn't happen at this level. All GM's know approximately what a player is worth.

What is the point of signing a player to an offer-sheet when you know if it is close to his value it will be matched?

- Antilles


A team may be willing to overpay to fill a huge need. And maybe it's an overpayment now but won't be in a few years after he reaches his potential. It's a gamble but that's what FA signings are. You never know who covets your player and thinks they're exactly what they need.

And by the logic of it will just get matched you have nothing to lose by offering it either. If you OS a player the team you are trying to swipe the guy from probably isn't in the best place cap wise so retaliation probably isn't an option for them.

The Weber OS was stupid and over the top money wise but the Flyers did it bc it was a huge need. I doubt anyone thought he would get an OS either.

I hope for the Blues you're sake you're right and it's not an issue. The market at this point is just as bad as before the lockout and AP getting more than 7-7.5 will just make it worse.

Again, it's all just arguing hypotheticals so pretty irrelevant but an interesting discussion.

Edit: Wanted to add that as Armstrong has said they have a lot of valuable pieces to move and can easily get the money needed to re-sign everyone anyway.
Antilles
St Louis Blues
Joined: 10.17.2008

Jul 8 @ 2:58 PM ET
WOW!!

Some of these proposals are laughable. Some one said what half of the Philly team for Alex? Then an Olier fan Eberle and Smid and a pick? Really?

Alex will be a Blue. period. As will Stewy. THIS year!!

Dont worry about "our" cap problem. I faith in Army as i do in Hitch!! We do have a surplus of players right now but EVERY team is going to witht he Olympics happening. I see at least 10 players from STL involved. We are going to need healthy bodies.

We have Porter. Reaves and Cracknell on one ways and that may hurt us a lil bit. but there is still Tarasenko and Schwartz that can play down if need be as well a Cole.

The forwards on NO SPECIFIC line is...
Backes- Perron- Oshie
Steen- Stewart- Bergland
Sobotka- Lappiere- Roy
Reaves- Porter- Cracknell

AP- Bow
Shatty- Leopold
Polak- Jackman

not too bad...

- Stricknasty's Hero



I think a trade is the more likely solution to us being near the cap, versus sending down Tarasenko or Schwartz. Perron being the most likely, though Halak would work as well.

Schwartz - Backes - Oshie
Sobotka - Berglund - Tarasenko
Steen - Roy - Stewart
Porter - Lapierre - Reaves

Jbo - Petro
Leoplod - Shatty
Jax - Polak

Halak
Elliott

Cracknell, Aucoin, and Cole in the box; Chorney, Rattie, Jaskin, and Allen in the AHL.
Antilles
St Louis Blues
Joined: 10.17.2008

Jul 8 @ 3:09 PM ET
A team may be willing to overpay to fill a huge need. And maybe it's an overpayment now but won't be in a few years after he reaches his potential. It's a gamble but that's what FA signings are. You never know who covets your player and thinks they're exactly what they need.

And by the logic of it will just get matched you have nothing to lose by offering it either. If you OS a player the team you are trying to swipe the guy from probably isn't in the best place cap wise so retaliation probably isn't an option for them.

The Weber OS was stupid and over the top money wise but the Flyers did it bc it was a huge need. I doubt anyone thought he would get an OS either.

I hope for the Blues you're sake you're right and it's not an issue. The market at this point is just as bad as before the lockout and AP getting more than 7-7.5 will just make it worse.

Again, it's all just arguing hypotheticals so pretty irrelevant but an interesting discussion.

- Hype97



I don't see the cap as being an issue in retaliation. For instance, Blues could offer Coots 4.5mil when Flyers plan on signing him for 3.5. They would match, but be stuck paying more than they wanted. If they don't, he is probably worth the draft picks and we can just not re-sign Roy. So yes, you have something to lose by offering it. Plus, let's say you OS Petro at 7.75 AAV. Then you pull off a trade for a different top pairing D after Blues match. Now the guy you traded for using Petro's salary as a reason you have to pay him more than you would have otherwise.

Teams are willing to overpay to fill a big need... but generally so is the original team. Like with Weber, Nashville was willing to overpay to fill a huge need, but wasn't going to do so unless they were forced. Philly didn't fill a need. What's more, they knew Nashville would match that AAV, they just hoped the payment structure time wise would stop them from matching. You can't make that sort of deal in the new CBA.

I don't see teams, despite having a big hole, being willing to so drastically overpay that the original team won't match. And I think the lack of offersheets over the last decade, combined with how often those offersheets are matched supports that idea.
Hype97
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Mt. Holly, NJ
Joined: 06.17.2013

Jul 8 @ 3:32 PM ET
I don't see the cap as being an issue in retaliation. For instance, Blues could offer Coots 4.5mil when Flyers plan on signing him for 3.5. They would match, but be stuck paying more than they wanted. If they don't, he is probably worth the draft picks and we can just not re-sign Roy. So yes, you have something to lose by offering it. Plus, let's say you OS Petro at 7.75 AAV. Then you pull off a trade for a different top pairing D after Blues match. Now the guy you traded for using Petro's salary as a reason you have to pay him more than you would have otherwise.

Teams are willing to overpay to fill a big need... but generally so is the original team. Like with Weber, Nashville was willing to overpay to fill a huge need, but wasn't going to do so unless they were forced. Philly didn't fill a need. What's more, they knew Nashville would match that AAV, they just hoped the payment structure time wise would stop them from matching. You can't make that sort of deal in the new CBA.

I don't see teams, despite having a big hole, being willing to so drastically overpay that the original team won't match. And I think the lack of offersheets over the last decade, combined with how often those offersheets are matched supports that idea.

- Antilles


That's a good point, the poison pill in the Weber deal was the huge signing bonus from day one. Can you not do that under the New CBA? Not that it matters for larger markets but the hope on the Flyers end was that the Preds couldn't afford to spend what amounted to their entire ticket revenue on one player.
MacT001
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Edmonton
Joined: 10.22.2012

Jul 8 @ 3:44 PM ET
Jeff Quirin: Attempting to Make Sense of the Alex Pietrangelo Situation
- Jeff Quirin

Blues in some hot water with their cap issues. Armstrong says he will match any offers for his two prized RFA's.
So what happens if Stewart is offered 6M and Piets is offered 6.5? He can match one of those but both will require him to make major roster changes and is a game changer. Armstrong has backed himself into a corner and better make a smart move soon before the offer sheets come and come they will!
Hype97
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Mt. Holly, NJ
Joined: 06.17.2013

Jul 8 @ 3:54 PM ET
Blues in some hot water with their cap issues. Armstrong says he will match any offers for his two prized RFA's.
So what happens if Stewart is offered 6M and Piets is offered 6.5? He can match one of those but both will require him to make major roster changes and is a game changer. Armstrong has backed himself into a corner and better make a smart move soon before the offer sheets come and come they will!

- MacT001


It'd be a chance for teams to gang up on them but:

1 Two teams would have to work together to do it. (Shady stuff right there)
2 I hope those teams know to fear the Blues for the forseeable future whenever they have an RFA.
3 St Louis would have a TON of trade options and be a great team pretty quick what with the 12 first round picks they'd have over the next 4 years

Edit: Nevermind 3 I had the compensation wrong 2-1s 2-2s 2-3s and their own picks...still not bad
Antilles
St Louis Blues
Joined: 10.17.2008

Jul 8 @ 4:00 PM ET
That's a good point, the poison pill in the Weber deal was the huge signing bonus from day one. Can you not do that under the New CBA? Not that it matters for larger markets but the hope on the Flyers end was that the Preds couldn't afford to spend what amounted to their entire ticket revenue on one player.
- Hype97


Not really. The fact it was signing bonus not salary was more of a concern because of the lockout... salaries for players was pro-rated down to like half, but signing bonus's were not, afaik. An OS could be front loaded for Petro... but only for like 1 year, not multiple years because the lowest compensation year must be within 50% of the lowest year. So the worst a team could do would be something like: 13 mil in the first year, then 10 the second and 6.5 the last 5, for the AAV to be around 8. They could make a lot of those numbers signing bonus instead of salary, but without a lockout looming that's not that big of a deal like it was last year, and they can't load up multiple big years in a row like they could against Nashville, because of variability and max length rules.
Antilles
St Louis Blues
Joined: 10.17.2008

Jul 8 @ 4:02 PM ET
Blues in some hot water with their cap issues. Armstrong says he will match any offers for his two prized RFA's.
So what happens if Stewart is offered 6M and Piets is offered 6.5? He can match one of those but both will require him to make major roster changes and is a game changer. Armstrong has backed himself into a corner and better make a smart move soon before the offer sheets come and come they will!

- MacT001


Major roster changes? Matching both of those would only require us to trade one of Perron or Halak. Not that massive of a blow, in fact something that might happen regardless.

Also, considering there has only been two summers in the last 15 years with more than one TOTAL offer-sheet... expecting there to be two and for them to both be against the same team is just silly.
Hype97
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Mt. Holly, NJ
Joined: 06.17.2013

Jul 8 @ 4:09 PM ET
Not really. The fact it was signing bonus not salary was more of a concern because of the lockout... salaries for players was pro-rated down to like half, but signing bonus's were not, afaik. An OS could be front loaded for Petro... but only for like 1 year, not multiple years because the lowest compensation year must be within 50% of the lowest year. So the worst a team could do would be something like: 13 mil in the first year, then 10 the second and 6.5 the last 5, for the AAV to be around 8. They could make a lot of those numbers signing bonus instead of salary, but without a lockout looming that's not that big of a deal like it was last year, and they can't load up multiple big years in a row like they could against Nashville, because of variability and max length rules.
- Antilles


Yeah I knew that part about the variances. Just meant to say that Even if it was possible for a team to do what the Weber deal was it wouldn't have the same effect that it did on Nashville.

Like I said I think you guys are fine. More cap workability than the current figures would suggest and most people look and see a number and don't bother to dig a little. ie Philly is 1.3 over but by moving one D man that they didn't even use last year and then LTIR Pronger at the season's start they have over 5 mil in cap space. But everyone seems to think they'll have trouble getting under.

Worst case scenario you move one or two guys to get it done.
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