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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Lauridsen, Quick Hits
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Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jul 11 @ 2:04 PM ET
I was actually wondering if he could wait to sign the tender until after season started, if that would provide relief. Or is it counted since its been tendered signed or not?
- flyerfan28



He could technically 'hold out' until after the season starts, but every day of the season that goes by w/o him signing would be costing him real $, assuming he's intent on collecting pay for not playing.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jul 11 @ 2:06 PM ET
It says a lot about the ratings system, if there's a way to have a cage match and make it PG. Unless it's some sort of no holds barred sharing contest.
- BulliesPhan87

There is nothing PG about swinging... unless its just... swinging.
Benway
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.22.2006

Jul 11 @ 2:07 PM ET
People kind of forget that he was being penciled into the lineup last summer by most everybody here... I don't really mind them qualifying him if only to hang on to his rights.

I have a bigger problem with them giving Yann Danis (and to a lesser extent, Adam Hall) a contract slot that could mean them losing Simon Gagne and/or being forced into a decision with Laughton over slide purposes due to being up against the 50-limit yet again.

- Tomahawk


I can see the argument against Danis, although when you're employing a goailie who has come back from AVN, it's not a bad idea to have an insurance policy.

I can't see why Hall was a bad signing at all. $600,000 cap hit and a contract slot are well worth it if the captain and best player on the team- who is under contract for the next 9 seasons and has had surgery on both wrists- doesn't have to lead the NHL in faceoffs taken next year.

Even with Lecavalier signed, Couturier is historically under 50% on draws, and there's no way Laughton waltzes in the league and wins more than 50% of his FOs. I don't want my 3rd and 4th lines starting the majority of their shifts without the puck. Couturier will get better at draws as he ages, but a 4th line Center that you can count on with a big faceoff in your D zone makes a big difference. Give Couturier to learn tricks, other Centers' tendencies, get to know linesman better so they let him cheat more, etc. Then ease Laughton along.

Edit: give Couturier another year to learn*

Also, I see value in letting Laughton go back and be a team leader who is counted on to score. He just started scoring more last season. Another year in Oshawa with an expanded role could be the best course for his long term development.
coffee junkie
Joined: 02.25.2007

Jul 11 @ 2:07 PM ET
I have no interest in sending Schenn down at any point of the season. Sending him down for any reason gives the team a disadvantage.
- dingo8urbaby

For one night to be cap compliant? No biggy. McGinn can plug for a game.
FlyersFirst
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.01.2011

Jul 11 @ 2:09 PM ET
For one night to be cap compliant? No biggy. McGinn can plug for a game.
- coffee junkie


Is there any reason they wouldnt do this??
coffee junkie
Joined: 02.25.2007

Jul 11 @ 2:10 PM ET
Thank Bob for Dreger!



If he attains those bonuses, I will be quite happy indeed to see the team pay them all out.

- dilbert719

I don't see that happening and if it does? 1.5M would be well worth it, even though it is against next year's cap. LTIR Pronger right away.
coffee junkie
Joined: 02.25.2007

Jul 11 @ 2:16 PM ET
Is there any reason they wouldnt do this??
- FlyersFirst

My understanding is that the team needs to be cap compliant on day one, prior to using LTIR on Pronger. To do that they could put B. Schenn in the minors without waivers due to his age. He may need ot miss a game but they could then use Pronger's cap LTIRed to bring him back right away. Please correct me if I'm wrong here.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 11 @ 2:28 PM ET
I don't believe the cap hit is counted until it's signed, as it's possible (not probable in his particular case) he could renegotiate a longer-term deal. But the contract slot counts.
- jmatchett383



Not true, once a qualifying offer is made, it has to be accounted for on the Cap.
FlyersGrace
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Pronger "Play the game puffnuts!" , DE
Joined: 07.02.2012

Jul 11 @ 2:31 PM ET
When MOAT came to my son's hockey game this past season, I felt protected from the angry mob of parents from the rival rink's team. Like he could grab the jawbone of an ass and mow them down, Samson style.
- Flyskippy

Wow
Crying

Love it!
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 11 @ 2:32 PM ET
My understanding is that the team needs to be cap compliant on day one, prior to using LTIR on Pronger. To do that they could put B. Schenn in the minors without waivers due to his age. He may need ot miss a game but they could then use Pronger's cap LTIRed to bring him back right away. Please correct me if I'm wrong here.
- coffee junkie



The Flyers can place Pronger on LTIR before day one of the Season. But by doing so, they will lessen the amount of available cap space they can have, by placing Pronger on LTIR. The longer they wait to place Pronger on LTIR, the better. For a variety of reasons. LTIR seems to be aconfusing concept to many.

The Flyers should avoid placing Pronger on LTIR if at all possible. And that can be done. Or atleast until it's determined that a lot of the bonuses that the players on EL contracts, can no longer be earned.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jul 11 @ 2:34 PM ET
I can't see why Hall was a bad signing at all. $600,000 cap hit and a contract slot are well worth it if the captain and best player on the team- who is under contract for the next 9 seasons and has had surgery on both wrists- doesn't have to lead the NHL in faceoffs taken next year.

Even with Lecavalier signed, Couturier is historically under 50% on draws, and there's no way Laughton waltzes in the league and wins more than 50% of his FOs. I don't want my 3rd and 4th lines starting the majority of their shifts without the puck. Couturier will get better at draws as he ages, but a 4th line Center that you can count on with a big faceoff in your D zone makes a big difference. Give Couturier to learn tricks, other Centers' tendencies, get to know linesman better so they let him cheat more, etc. Then ease Laughton along.

- Benway



Despite what most people think, the correlation between FO% and team performance is very weak, especially in the playoffs where we just saw the top FO team get beaten in 6 by one of the poorest FO teams.

Fans fixate on FO% because they always hang on to those anecdotal moments where a guy loses a draw clean and a goal gets scored. What they don't remember are the vast majority of FO's that are uneventful and have very little impact on the score.

Fans especially fixate on guys like Hall, Konopka, Gaustad, Steckel who have gaudy %'s, but see so little ice that they don't even take that many faceoffs to begin with. We'd like to imagine that Hall is going to get put out there to win a critical draw, because it sounds nice on paper, but coach's aren't going to roll the dice on an unfavorable matchup just to increase the likelihood of winning the draw by a few %-points. It's no wonder you see guys like Hall in and out of the lineup, on waivers, in the AHL, etc. -- they're just not that important.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 11 @ 2:34 PM ET
I can see the argument against Danis, although when you're employing a goailie who has come back from AVN, it's not a bad idea to have an insurance policy.

I can't see why Hall was a bad signing at all. $600,000 cap hit and a contract slot are well worth it if the captain and best player on the team- who is under contract for the next 9 seasons and has had surgery on both wrists- doesn't have to lead the NHL in faceoffs taken next year.

Even with Lecavalier signed, Couturier is historically under 50% on draws, and there's no way Laughton waltzes in the league and wins more than 50% of his FOs. I don't want my 3rd and 4th lines starting the majority of their shifts without the puck. Couturier will get better at draws as he ages, but a 4th line Center that you can count on with a big faceoff in your D zone makes a big difference. Give Couturier to learn tricks, other Centers' tendencies, get to know linesman better so they let him cheat more, etc. Then ease Laughton along.

Edit: give Couturier another year to learn*

Also, I see value in letting Laughton go back and be a team leader who is counted on to score. He just started scoring more last season. Another year in Oshawa with an expanded role could be the best course for his long term development.

- Benway



All good points. Although I'd rather have Laughton on the Flyers. As I think it's better for his development. But many fail to realize the trickle effect a player like Hall can have to the lineup. Especially considering how misused Giroux was last Season. That can be a huge advantage for the Flyers.
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Jul 11 @ 2:38 PM ET
Despite what most people think, the correlation between FO% and team performance is very weak, especially in the playoffs where we just saw the top FO team get beaten in 6 by one of the poorest FO teams.

Fans fixate on FO% because they always hang on to those anecdotal moments where a guy loses a draw clean and a goal gets scored. What they don't remember is that the vast majority of FO's are uneventful and have very little impact on the score.

Fans especially fixate on guys like Hall, Konopka, Gaustad, Steckel who have gaudy %'s, but see so little ice that they don't even take that many faceoffs to begin with. We'd like to imagine that Hall is going to get put out there to win a critical draw, because it sounds nice on paper, but coach's aren't going to roll the dice on an unfavorable matchup just to increase the likelihood of winning the draw by a few %-points. It's no wonder you see guys like Hall in and out of the lineup, on waivers, in the AHL, etc. -- they're just not that important.

- Tomahawk


I think the main premise is to give Giroux as many offensive zone starts as possible.

Whether that's giving those defensive zone starts to Couturier or Hall, doesn't matter. I think Hall just gives another capable guy, especially if Couturier is hurt.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 11 @ 2:39 PM ET
Despite what most people think, the correlation between FO% and team performance is very weak, especially in the playoffs where we just saw the top FO team get beaten in 6 by one of the poorest FO teams.

Fans fixate on FO% because they always hang on to those anecdotal moments where a guy loses a draw clean and a goal gets scored. What they don't remember is that the vast majority of FO's are uneventful and have very little impact on the score.

Fans especially fixate on guys like Hall, Konopka, Gaustad, Steckel who have gaudy %'s, but see so little ice that they don't even take that many faceoffs to begin with. We'd like to imagine that Hall is going to get put out there to win a critical draw, because it sounds nice on paper, but coach's aren't going to roll the dice on a unfavorable matchup just to increase the likelihood of winning the draw by a few %-points. It's no wonder you see guys like Hall in and out of the lineup, on waivers, in the AHL, etc. -- they're just not that important.

- Tomahawk



You're looking at this completely wrong. Faceoffs are crucial to the game. Especially in your own zone. And are crucial in key moments of the game. For a team like the Flyers, having a player like Hall is very important. That's the problem with all of these advanced stats. They cloud people's judgements. They put every situation in the same light. The game hasn't changed. Faceoffs, and winning them are a big part of the game. Always have been and always will be. A player like Hall allows the Flyers to put other players in better positions and situations. It will make the Flyers a better team. Without a doubt.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Jul 11 @ 2:42 PM ET
We don't want Giroux leading the league in number of faceoffs taken again.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 11 @ 2:42 PM ET
I think the main premise is to give Giroux as many offensive zone starts as possible.

Whether that's giving those defensive zone starts to Couturier or Hall, doesn't matter. I think Hall just gives another capable guy, especially if Couturier is hurt.

- bradleyc4


Exactly. Anyone who thinks that isn't going to make the Flyers a better team. And Giroux a better player. Is as the author of the linked article says, is just plain nuts. Giroux was used far too often on draws of the PK, and in defensive zone draws. Because of the lack of a second quality faceoff option.

Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jul 11 @ 2:43 PM ET
I think the main premise is to give Giroux as many offensive zone starts as possible.
- bradleyc4



I don't think it's necessarily a 'problem' that he's good enough defensively to be double-shifted on to another line to win a draw... having your best player on the ice more often is usually a pretty good thing.
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Jul 11 @ 2:46 PM ET
Despite what most people think, the correlation between FO% and team performance is very weak, especially in the playoffs where we just saw the top FO team get beaten in 6 by one of the poorest FO teams.

Fans fixate on FO% because they always hang on to those anecdotal moments where a guy loses a draw clean and a goal gets scored. What they don't remember are the vast majority of FO's that are uneventful and have very little impact on the score.

Fans especially fixate on guys like Hall, Konopka, Gaustad, Steckel who have gaudy %'s, but see so little ice that they don't even take that many faceoffs to begin with. We'd like to imagine that Hall is going to get put out there to win a critical draw, because it sounds nice on paper, but coach's aren't going to roll the dice on an unfavorable matchup just to increase the likelihood of winning the draw by a few %-points. It's no wonder you see guys like Hall in and out of the lineup, on waivers, in the AHL, etc. -- they're just not that important.

- Tomahawk


Is there a positive correlation between FO% and puck possession?
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jul 11 @ 2:47 PM ET
You're looking at this completely wrong. Faceoffs are crucial to the game. Especially in your own zone. And are crucial in key moments of the game. For a team like the Flyers, having a player like Hall is very important. That's the problem with all of these advanced stats. They cloud people's judgements. They put every situation in the same light. The game hasn't changed. Faceoffs, and winning them are a big part of the game. Always have been and always will be. A player like Hall allows the Flyers to put other players in better positions and situations. It will make the Flyers a better team. Without a doubt.
- MJL



It's not advanced stats... it's just plotting FO% against things like PK%, PP%, points in the standings, GF/GA... anybody w/ access to NHL.com and Excel can do it.

The correlation is very weak, and you'd have a hell of a time trying to prove that even that weak correlation is causal.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jul 11 @ 2:47 PM ET
Exactly. Anyone who thinks that isn't going to make the Flyers a better team. And Giroux a better player. Is as the author of the linked article says, is just plain nuts. Giroux was used far too often on draws of the PK, and in defensive zone draws. Because of the lack of a second quality faceoff option.
- MJL

With that being said, if they do give G more offensive zone starts, I could see his FO #'s go down a bit this season.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jul 11 @ 2:48 PM ET
You're looking at this completely wrong. Faceoffs are crucial to the game. Especially in your own zone. And are crucial in key moments of the game. For a team like the Flyers, having a player like Hall is very important. That's the problem with all of these advanced stats. They cloud people's judgements. They put every situation in the same light. The game hasn't changed. Faceoffs, and winning them are a big part of the game. Always have been and always will be. A player like Hall allows the Flyers to put other players in better positions and situations. It will make the Flyers a better team. Without a doubt.
- MJL

Just watched Trouble With The Curve the other night with my wife.. Fantastic movie.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jul 11 @ 2:50 PM ET
With that being said, if they do give G more offensive zone starts, I could see his FO #'s go down a bit this season.
- jak521



The zone-starts for this past season are a bit misleading... the Flyers, as a team, started more of their shifts in the d-zone just by virtue of being bad... and as a result, guys like Giroux and Couturier were taking more d-zone draws, because it's a lot better than putting Briere or B Schenn out there.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jul 11 @ 2:53 PM ET
Despite what most people think, the correlation between FO% and team performance is very weak, especially in the playoffs where we just saw the top FO team get beaten in 6 by one of the poorest FO teams.

Fans fixate on FO% because they always hang on to those anecdotal moments where a guy loses a draw clean and a goal gets scored. What they don't remember are the vast majority of FO's that are uneventful and have very little impact on the score.

Fans especially fixate on guys like Hall, Konopka, Gaustad, Steckel who have gaudy %'s, but see so little ice that they don't even take that many faceoffs to begin with. We'd like to imagine that Hall is going to get put out there to win a critical draw, because it sounds nice on paper, but coach's aren't going to roll the dice on an unfavorable matchup just to increase the likelihood of winning the draw by a few %-points. It's no wonder you see guys like Hall in and out of the lineup, on waivers, in the AHL, etc. -- they're just not that important.

- Tomahawk

I think there are a lot of useless faceoffs in a game. It'd be better if you found something that compares percentages of key draws won vs team performance. I guess that would include percentage of draws that are won in the offensive zone when down a goal in the final 5 minutes, percentage won in the defensive zone when up a goal in the final 5 minutes, percentage won in either zone during OT, maybe percentage won immediately after a goal was scored, or scored on, and some other advanced situations like that.
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Jul 11 @ 2:58 PM ET
Despite what most people think, the correlation between FO% and team performance is very weak, especially in the playoffs where we just saw the top FO team get beaten in 6 by one of the poorest FO teams.

Fans fixate on FO% because they always hang on to those anecdotal moments where a guy loses a draw clean and a goal gets scored. What they don't remember are the vast majority of FO's that are uneventful and have very little impact on the score.

Fans especially fixate on guys like Hall, Konopka, Gaustad, Steckel who have gaudy %'s, but see so little ice that they don't even take that many faceoffs to begin with. We'd like to imagine that Hall is going to get put out there to win a critical draw, because it sounds nice on paper, but coach's aren't going to roll the dice on an unfavorable matchup just to increase the likelihood of winning the draw by a few %-points. It's no wonder you see guys like Hall in and out of the lineup, on waivers, in the AHL, etc. -- they're just not that important.

- Tomahawk


I think a more accurate representation of the "How does winning faceoffs correlate to winning games" is to say that it is possible that faceoff percentage can have a small effect on the overall success of a team, there is no predictive value with respect to wins and losses.

The key word there is "predictive". Saying there is no correlation between FO% and team performance tells me you may be misinterpreting what the author said.
theocean
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.27.2011

Jul 11 @ 2:59 PM ET
Good Lord. Martin Brodeur has been tormenting me for not quite half of my life.

Wow. No athlete in any sport -- not Emmitt Smith/Troy Aikman/Michael Irvin, not Larry Bird, not Greg Maddux/John Smoltz/Tom Glavine, have tormented me like that guy.

That guy...man.

- AllInForFlyers



Hes the only goalie i can ever remember playing for new jersey... its crazy hes been there forever.
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