I think there are a lot of useless faceoffs in a game. It'd be better if you found something that compares percentages of key draws won vs team performance. I guess that would include percentage of draws that are won in the offensive zone when down a goal in the final 5 minutes, percentage won in the defensive zone when up a goal in the final 5 minutes, percentage won in either zone during OT, maybe percentage won immediately after a goal was scored, or scored on, and some other advanced situations like that.
- JAKEw1234

That would be interesting to see, but I'd suspect that you still wouldn't find that strong of a correlation.

The marginal difference between a great faceoff guy and a poor faceoff guy isn't so great that every faceoff isn't essentially still a 50/50 puck, like a board battle. Handzus (a 'bad' guy) was still taking (and winning) a lot of critical FO's in the Finals... and Bergeron lost more than a few vital ones despite being in the high-60's.

It's much more important how the team plays after the puck is dropped than how good the team is at getting initial possession.

Is there a positive correlation between FO% and puck possession?
- johndewar

I don't remember where I saw it, but I know I read this: Someone charted PP goals, and a staggeringly high number of them -- like 95-plus percent -- start with a defensive team losing the draw in their own zone.

I agree with Tomahawk on how difficult it will be to move Meszaros, but disagree with him on the importance of faceoffs -- there were a few reasons why the Flyers played better toward the end of last season, but one of them really was that they had the puck more because they were winning more faceoffs.

Hes the only goalie i can ever remember playing for new jersey... its crazy hes been there forever.
- theocean

You just hurt Chris Terreri's and Alain Chevrier's feelings with that remark.

I don't think it's necessarily a 'problem' that he's good enough defensively to be double-shifted on to another line to win a draw... having your best player on the ice more often is usually a pretty good thing.
- Tomahawk

It was a huge problem for the Flyers last Season. And a detriment to both Giroux and the team overall. Giroux wasn't double-shifted because of his defensive ability. It was because he was the only reliable faceoff option on the team. Giroux is at best an average defensive player. And he was misused last Season in a lot of ways.

That would be interesting to see, but I'd suspect that you still wouldn't find that strong of a correlation.

The marginal difference between a great faceoff guy and a poor faceoff guy isn't so great that every faceoff isn't essentially still a 50/50 puck, like a board battle. Handzus (a 'bad' guy) was still taking (and winning) a lot of critical FO's in the Finals... and Bergeron lost more than a few vital ones despite being in the high-60's.

It's much more important how the team plays after the puck is dropped than how good the team is at getting initial possession.
- Tomahawk

what do you mean by 'bad guy'?

bad at faceoffs? he was 55.6% in 12-13

It's not advanced stats... it's just plotting FO% against things like PK%, PP%, points in the standings, GF/GA... anybody w/ access to NHL.com and Excel can do it.

The correlation is very weak, and you'd have a hell of a time trying to prove that even that weak correlation is causal.
- Tomahawk

It's the same nonsense! The author is a stone cold idiot! As if faceoff percentage is the only factor in a team's success on the PK or PP. The author wrote an embarrassing article that came to an embarrasing conclusion. He makes the Flyers beat writers look like Scotty Bowman.

what do you mean by 'bad guy'?

bad at faceoffs? he was 55.6% in 12-13
- Don'tForgetTocchet

Was mid-40's in PO's... during his career, he's been all over the map.

That would be interesting to see, but I'd suspect that you still wouldn't find that strong of a correlation.

The marginal difference between a great faceoff guy and a poor faceoff guy isn't so great that every faceoff isn't essentially still a 50/50 puck, like a board battle. Handzus (a 'bad' guy) was still taking (and winning) a lot of critical FO's in the Finals... and Bergeron lost more than a few vital ones despite being in the high-60's.

It's much more important how the team plays after the puck is dropped than how good the team is at getting initial possession.
- Tomahawk

Just the fact that a player wins 60% of his faceoffs tells you that he doesn't win them all. Or wins every vital faceoff. But there's a reason why Julien sends Bergeron out there every chance he get's, to take a key faceoff in a key spot in a game. Maybe Julien needs to read that article you posted, to learn that he's just plain nuts.

Just the fact that a player wins 60% of his faceoffs tells you that he doesn't win them all. Or wins every vital faceoff. But there's a reason why Julien sends Bergeron out there every chance he get's, to take a key faceoff in a key spot in a game. Maybe Julien needs to read that article you posted, to learn that he's just plain nuts.
- MJL

Bergie doesn't get sent out there just because he's good on draws... he gets sent out there because he's an outstanding defensive player and able to contribute at both ends during the other 30-45 secs of his shift after the draw.

Same thing w/ Giroux... Lavi feels comfortable putting him out there against anyone.

Couturier, too. He's not good at draws, but he still gets put out there against the tough matchups because of how good he is after the draw.

A guy like Hall may increase your odds of winning a draw, but he decreases your chances of success after that because he's just not able to keep up with the play at 5V5.

Just the fact that a player wins 60% of his faceoffs tells you that he doesn't win them all. Or wins every vital faceoff. But there's a reason why Julien sends Bergeron out there every chance he get's, to take a key faceoff in a key spot in a game. Maybe Julien needs to read that article you posted, to learn that he's just plain nuts.
- MJL

Yep.

That's why it was interesting that they brought Hall back. Because it's their job, somebody with the Flyers likely tracked how effective they were with him taking draws.

That's the only reason you do it. Faceoffs -- like any stat, they're subjective.

But I'd rather have the guy who wins 59 percent of them, as Hall does, taking one in the defensive zone than Maxime Talbot, who is a nice guy but got absolutely slaughtered on draws last year.

Call me crazy, but that's what I'd do.

Yep.

That's why it was interesting that they brought Hall back. Because it's their job, somebody with the Flyers likely tracked how effective they were with him taking draws.

That's the only reason you do it. Faceoffs -- like any stat, they're subjective.

But I'd rather have the guy who wins 59 percent of them, as Hall does, taking one in the defensive zone than Maxime Talbot, who is a nice guy but got absolutely slaughtered on draws last year.

Call me crazy, but that's what I'd do.
- AllInForFlyers

Max is much better on the wing. and luckily we have a spot for him there. Awesome teammate that makes the team better through the locker room as well as on the ice Remember when him and Gags were lighting it up together on a line last year?

Bergie doesn't get sent out there just because he's good on draws... he gets sent out there because he's an outstanding defensive player and able to contribute at both ends during the other 30-45 secs of his shift after the draw.

Same thing w/ Giroux... Lavi feels comfortable putting him out there against anyone.

Couturier, too. He's not good at draws, but he still gets put out there against the tough matchups because of how good he is after the draw.

A guy like Hall may increase your odds of winning a draw, but he decreases your chances of success after that because he's just not able to keep up with the play at 5V5.
- Tomahawk

That's not necessarily true, because puck possession off the draw means you have a better chance of exiting your zone with the puck, therefore creating a neutral zone or offensive zone start, whereas if you lose the draw in your own zone, you are more likely than not going to give up a shot.

They won't all be goals. They won't all be great shots. But any shot on goal in a tight game is a tough one -- I've said it before, but the worst loss the Flyers had last year was that game in New Jersey when they had been leading something like 3-1 -- were in total control, really -- then gave up a couple of goals, including one fairly late in the third, then another right after off a lost faceoff where Adam Larsson just tossed it at the net and it went off David Clarkson's ass.

Didn't even get to overtime.

Bill Clement was struggling to find words to not sound too harsh, but you could tell he wanted to scream "OH MY GOD YOU CANNOT LOSE A FACEOFF THERE."

Call me crazy, but that's what I'd do.
- AllInForFlyers

In a vacuum, sure.

But the cost/benefit of using that contract slot on him when they're pressing up against 50 is the issue... if there wasn't a limit, hell, I'd sign Hall for FO's, Kaberle for the PP, Tim Thomas as 3rd-string goalie, and Brendan Morrow for the occasional example of leadership.

If Hall possibly means no room for Simon Gagne on this roster, I don't think that's a positive tradeoff.

In a vacuum, sure.

But the cost/benefit of using that contract slot on him when they're pressing up against 50 is the issue... if there wasn't a limit, hell, I'd sign Hall for FO's, Kaberle for the PP, Tim Thomas as 3rd-string goalie, and Brendan Morrow for the occasional example of leadership.

If Hall possibly means no room for Simon Gagne on this roster, I don't think that's a positive tradeoff.
- Tomahawk

What about the contract slot being wasted on Wellwood? Hall at least is a useful role player. Wellwood is a fringe NHL player who may never play again.

Max is much better on the wing. and luckily we have a spot for him there. Awesome teammate that makes the team better through the locker room as well as on the ice Remember when him and Gags were lighting it up together on a line last year?
- JAKEw1234

HA! That was one of the better lines last year, Gagne-Couturier-Talbot, before Max broke his leg. I remember! They weren't together that long, but they were doing well.

Bergie doesn't get sent out there just because he's good on draws... he gets sent out there because he's an outstanding defensive player and able to contribute at both ends during the other 30-45 secs of his shift after the draw.

Same thing w/ Giroux... Lavi feels comfortable putting him out there against anyone.

Couturier, too. He's not good at draws, but he still gets put out there against the tough matchups because of how good he is after the draw.

A guy like Hall may increase your odds of winning a draw, but he decreases your chances of success after that because he's just not able to keep up with the play at 5V5.
- Tomahawk

Giroux was put out there because he was the teams only quality faceoff option. you don't seem to want to accept that. And if Couturier improves his faceoff percentage to around 54%. How much you want to bet that Giroux spends a hell of a lot less time taking defensive zone draws?

And Bergeron's faceoff ability is a large part of why he's sent out there.

it's innacurate to state that Hall can't keep up with the play at 5 on 5. He's a solid 4th line checking Center. And if the Flyers use him properly, it'll make the Flyers a better team. By allowing players like Giroux to be used in the manner in which he should. And allow them to increase his O zone starts. And decrease his D zone starts. It's going to make the Flyers a better team. And Giroux a better player.

What about the contract slot being wasted on Wellwood? Hall at least is a useful role player. Wellwood is a fringe NHL player who may never play again.
- PLindbergh31

Isn't it true that they had to qualify him because he was injured, or did I just think I read that?

That's not necessarily true, because puck possession off the draw means you have a better chance of exiting your zone with the puck, therefore creating a neutral zone or offensive zone start, whereas if you lose the draw in your own zone, you are more likely than not going to give up a shot.
- AllInForFlyers

1) Not all FO wins lead to solid possession.

2) Having players that can get the puck back, not only after a lost draw, but in all situations, is going to drive possession more than a FO win.

Bill Clement was struggling to find words to not sound too harsh, but you could tell he wanted to scream "OH MY GOD YOU CANNOT LOSE A FACEOFF THERE."
- AllInForFlyers

Like I said, the anecdotal stuff naturally stays with us... especially when analysts on TV love to grossly attribute almost every goal to faceoff wins/losses.

You just hurt Chris Terreri's and Alain Chevrier's feelings with that remark.
- johndewar

I went to college with Alain Chevrier. Great guy. I roomed with several other hockey players, and he hung out at our house quite a bit. His nickname was "Tadpole". He was French Canadian (aka frog) and small. Hence Tadpole, a baby frog.

He was also the most flexible male I have ever seen. He used to show off at parties by sitting in the full split position with each heel on a chair or a table and nothing underneath him. He could sit that way for hours. It hurt just to watch him do it.

He was also crazy enough to fight Hextall in a 1997 line brawl vs. the Flyers. Wish I had seen it. Must have seemed like Hextall was fighting a child. Let's just say the 5' 8" height listed in the program was a generous measurement for Tadpole.

EDIT: We can all see it- http://youtu.be/d3LnBCGZTiY, and it does look like Hextall is fighting a midget or something. Tad took a pretty good beating.

EDIT2: /csb

Yep.

That's why it was interesting that they brought Hall back. Because it's their job, somebody with the Flyers likely tracked how effective they were with him taking draws.

That's the only reason you do it. Faceoffs -- like any stat, they're subjective.

But I'd rather have the guy who wins 59 percent of them, as Hall does, taking one in the defensive zone than Maxime Talbot, who is a nice guy but got absolutely slaughtered on draws last year.

Call me crazy, but that's what I'd do.
- AllInForFlyers

I don't have the numbers and the difference between when Hall was on the team, and not on the team. But Giroux took an average of 2.95 SH draws a game over the Season. Couturier took 1.5, and talbot took 1.6. In the 11 games that Hall played with the Flyers, he tool 3.45 SH draws a game.

In a vacuum, sure.

But the cost/benefit of using that contract slot on him when they're pressing up against 50 is the issue... if there wasn't a limit, hell, I'd sign Hall for FO's, Kaberle for the PP, Tim Thomas as 3rd-string goalie, and Brendan Morrow for the occasional example of leadership.

If Hall possibly means no room for Simon Gagne on this roster, I don't think that's a positive tradeoff.
- Tomahawk

No it's not the issue. It's just an exaggeration and being made an issue. When there isn't one. There is no issue with contract slots. And I'd rather have Hall the Gagne.

Holy poop ilya kovy retiring! Wow didnt see that one coming

I don't have the numbers and the difference between when Hall was on the team, and not on the team. But Giroux took an average of 2.95 SH draws a game over the Season. Couturier took 1.5, and talbot took 1.6. In the 11 games that Hall played with the Flyers, he tool 3.45 SH draws a game.
- MJL

Win draw to defenseman, clear, skate hard to bench for good PKer.

Holy poop ilya kovy retiring! Wow didnt see that one coming
- flyerfan28

WOW. My Twitter feed is blowing the hell up about this -- if this is a joke, it's fooling a TON of people.

Kovalchuk retired? seriously?