Downie has looked like a great move by Homer. Only concern is that once his face is truly feeling better that he becomes more aggressive and pushes it too far. He is probably holding back a bit because of concern of his face. But really there has been nothing to complain about with him and the third line has really been on fire. It is great to see that the top three lines are all a real threat.

As far as Rosehill, I have to figure it's a matter of if it ain't broke don't fix it. The team is winning why screw with anything. Raffl didn't show me anything that says he has to play over Rosehill. Yes they should send him down to the Phantoms, let him get more time playing of this size ice. He isn't going to get better sitting in the press box.

It's been great to see how well both goalies have been playing. Before the season some many people were saying what a joke that goalie tandem was going to be.

hmm i will try to forgive gus i guess
- -davies-

I thought Gus did a good job on the offense side last night.
He hammered a few shots anyway.

Defensively him and Luke have me white knuckling most of the time.

L Schenn and Gusty look like a pair of, well...
young defenseman, out there.

They are going to make plenty of mistakes.

Berube could go with Hal Gill and Mezzy.
But nearly everyone on here was critical of that, and most reasonable posters seem willing to let Gusty and Schenn go through their growing pains.

And despite his years in the league, L Schenn is still a young defenseman.

Jsaq this is not directed at you, you are one of the most reasonable and enjoyable to read posters in here, I'm just continuing the discussion.
- Marc D

+1 for Jsaq

And +1 for Marc because I enjoy your posts as well

I thought Gus did a good job on the offense side last night.
He hammered a few shots anyway.

Defensively him and Luke have me white knuckling most of the time.
- Marc D

i just see him getting knocked around a lot... defensively he scares me.

- -davies-

They reminded me of Naboo and Bollo from The Mighty Boosh.

After 2

Barrie - 2
Oshawa - 2

Laughton with a goal.

There are some teams that use analytics to extensive degrees. The Sharks are a well known proponent of using advanced stats to get a better read on players and how they will fit.

There's a bevy of numbers out there. You have the well known Corsi & Fenwick numbers, but there's also stats for zone starts, quality of competition faced and and every imaginable occurence on the ice.

When it comes to stats in hockey, there is no silver bullet that will tell you everything.

I personally use stats to get a better understanding of what I saw. I don't immediately figure out a guy's Corsi after the game, but I will check it out at some point. Also, if I want to look at a player to discuss him as possible trade bait, I will try to find video and take a look at his numbers.

The biggest benefit of advanced stats in hockey is, that you literally can't watch every game a guy plays. It's not like baseball, where you can see every single plate appearance and get a definite answer. But numbers only show you so much...I always try to see at least highlights of a guy.
- Jsaquella

Thanks Jsaq; even if I don't have time to reply I always appreciate your insight.

I know what you mean about not using the micro-stats for primary evaluation. They should be used to compliment existing methods. The knowledge of the scouting staff will always be paramount. But I think there can be an absolute benefit to information that may show patterns, whether they make sense or not. Some guys just seem to be in the right place at the right time.

Brendan Lemieux (Claude's son) hit Laughton knee on knee, he's okay though

Brendan Lemieux (Claude's son) hit Laughton knee on knee, he's okay though
- ob18

Ha, like father like son.

Couturier has been a DOMINANT player since he was paired with Downie & Read. Using the advanced numbers I just mentioned, it's staggering how good he's been.

He's started 70% of his shifts in the defensive zone, and he's endin 65% of them in the offensive end-while generally being up against the opposing team's top line. That's absolutely staggering in terms of controlling the play and getting it done against high level competition.
- Jsaquella

I've been saying this for 2 years: Couturier is a bigger, stronger version of Guy carbonneau and those guys are worth their weight in gold. In another 3 years or so I can see him at 215lbs putting up 20-25 goals, 55-65 points and becoming a perrenial finalist for the Selke trophy.

He'll be your top guy on the PK and the guy you put out there when you're 2 men short. He'll be the guy you get out there for the last shift of the period and he'll drive the top centers in the league nuts.

This kid is going to be in orange and black for a long time because you don't win a cup without a guy like Couturier.

Final

Barrie - 5
Oshawa - 3

Laughton with a goal and assist

Ol Hal did play solidly for the Flyers in limited action but I agree they need to let Schenn play.

I still think that signing Gill was more in expectation of finding a taker for Meszaros than a need for Gill
- Jsaquella

I also think he was insurance if Grossmann was to go down.

Ha, like father like son.
- Pixote Andolini

He tried to goat Laughton into a fight but Josh Brown came in throwing rights so that didn't happen

a message from the ether, regarding the Isles second goal last night, from Micheal J Leighton:

"So far everyone has been blamed on the Boulton goal except for the player who deserves the biggest blame. Gustafsson didn't blow the coverage, and neither did Rosehill. Adam Hall did. He lost the faceoff and lost his check. The Isles centerman got buy him, creating a mini two on one down low. Gustafsson was caught having to play 2 guys and tried to prevent the pass. Boulton is Gustafsson's check on the play, but he had to do what he did because Hall lost his check. Rosehill's job is to cover the point, or get to the wall if the Flyers win the faceoff for a potential rim play. Hall is the culprit on the play."

After looking at the replay, I have to agree with this. Hall loses Cizikas off the draw, and Gus moves off Bolton towards Cizikas, and it's a 2 on 1 down low. Puck gets by Gus and Bolton is wide open down low. Hall has to tie up Cizikas there, even if he loses the draw.
- Marc D

Hall did lose his check, but Gutafsson never made the slightest move to even cover Boulton. He had covered Boulton, it's Cizikas & the goalie, and Mason doesn't have to sprawl to try and make a lateral move to make the stop.

I've been saying this for 2 years: Couturier is a bigger, stronger version of Guy carbonneau and those guys are worth their weight in gold. In another 3 years or so I can see him at 215lbs putting up 20-25 goals, 55-65 points and becoming a perrenial finalist for the Selke trophy.

He'll be your top guy on the PK and the guy you put out there when you're 2 men short. He'll be the guy you get out there for the last shift of the period and he'll drive the top centers in the league nuts.

This kid is going to be in orange and black for a long time because you don't win a cup without a guy like Couturier.
- BiggE

I have questions about the offense coming around to the point where he's a 60 point guy, but even if he's a 35 point guy, the level of defense he's playing now is vital to a championship club

Hall did lose his check, but Gutafsson never made the slightest move to even cover Boulton. He had covered Boulton, it's Cizikas & the goalie, and Mason doesn't have to sprawl to try and make a lateral move to make the stop.
- Jsaquella

It was kind of a bang bang play, I think Gus decided in the split second to move to the guy with the puck as he was nearly on top of the goal.

Turned out bad, but whatever.

Maybe just a great play by Cizikas (who seems like he could be more then a 4th line center)

It was kind of a bang bang play, I think Gus decided in the split second to move to the guy with the puck as he was nearly on top of the goal.

Turned out bad, but whatever.

Maybe just a great play by Cizikas (who seems like he could be more then a 4th line center)
- Marc D

It was a very smart play by Cizikas. Hall certainly did blow his check, and Gustafsson also blew his assignment. Can't really blame Rosehill at all, because he wasn't supposed to cover either Cizikas or Boulton

ummmmm ewwwww to the Sabres jerseys today

I have questions about the offense coming around to the point where he's a 60 point guy, but even if he's a 35 point guy, the level of defense he's playing now is vital to a championship club
- Jsaquella

I could see him getting 35 assists/yr playing with quality wingers.

Goal scoring, just not sure yet.
I can't tell if he's snakebitten or just pressing this year, but he gets some great opportunities in close that are just not going in for him...yet.

ummmmm ewwwww to the Sabres jerseys today
- nastyflyergirl

Holy moly they are hideous

Holy moly they are hideous
- Jsaquella

THE BATTLE OF THE CONDIMENTS: MUSTARD VS KETCHUP

Holy moly they are hideous
- Jsaquella

When are you ordering an Ott jersey?

Bill & Fellow Buzzers,

I know it is the scheme du jour, but is there any real credence given to the "moneyball" or sabremetric stats in hockey?

I think that it does more than project value, I feel it promotes the essence of "team" more than the individual.

What made me think about this was Read scoring the first Flyer goal in our last 2 wins. I was just curious, because I would absolutely weight the first goal scored in a tight game more than a fifth goal tacked on to a 5-1 blowout.

Or in the NBA there is a stat of baskets made in "clutch" situations where they account for the margin (within 5 pts I think) of lead and time left in game; I think it icks in during the last 5 minutes of the game.

Just curious on anyone's thoughts and/or if anyone knows if this is currently being implemented in scouting.
- DrMidnite

The hockey advanced stats community breaks down puck-possession metrics (Corsi/Fenwick) into sub-categories that alleviate some of the inherent situational/score biases -- Corsi/Fenwick Close (possession events in 1-goal game situations) are currently the closest analog to what you're asking about. The numbers aren't as easy to find as standard Corsi/Fenwick, but they're out there.

As for advanced stats in general, they're not at the point where they can really accurately quantify a player's worth alone, but they are perfectly suitable for supplying much-needed context when viewed alongside the traditional stat line, and backing up eyeball observations. Zone-starts and quality-of-competition/quality-of-teammates can also tell you a lot about what a coach thinks of a player and how he chooses to deploy that player.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/five-reasons-philadelphia-flyers-went-disaster-contender-142403940--nhl.html

Mason getting national love. About Seravelling time!
- KINGKENZO