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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Garner: Dubnyk and the “Didn’t Have A Chance” Defense
Author Message
Aerchon
Joined: 10.14.2011

Nov 28 @ 11:23 AM ET
Generally agree with the blog.

One thing I would point out in defense of those cutting Dub some slack on those goals.

For Dub those were all decent quality difficult to save scenario's. Being scored on by those, rather than weak wrister's from the blue line or shots from behind the goal line is an improvement for Dub.

So while a normal goaltender would have stopped at least 2 of those difficult saves Dub clearly isn't in the same league as those types of goaltenders. So less is expected from him.

I can't say exactly why but I felt immensely better with Byrz out there.

Everyone calls Dub "The Big Easy". I don't get it. He panics every time he travels out of his crease and looks nervous as all hell any time anything remotely difficult comes his way. His size is the only thing that makes saves look easy.

Byrz had an urgency to his movements during the game. He moved from position to position to position quickly and seemly flawlessly. He has a much tighter game, much better mobility, much better puck handling and it was soooo refreshing to see.

I am very eager to see what the Oilers can do if Bryz regain his NHL form. From what i've watched of Byrz I think he is a much better goalie than Dub. He has a much bigger capacity to steal tough games.
ruttager17
Edmonton Oilers
Location: "Don't worry about me, worry about yourself". -EKLB DNZ supreme , AB
Joined: 10.21.2011

Nov 28 @ 11:25 AM ET
Bryz let in 1 goal on 13 shots.
- SpoiledByOil

Yeah but that one goal that was a sick deflection he had "no chance" on. The oil also had a chance to get that puck out of the zone preventing the shot from occurring, but again the oil had "no chance" to get the puck out cause Chicago is too damn good.
SpoiledByOil
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 08.09.2012

Nov 28 @ 11:27 AM ET
So basically what everyone is trying to say is we legitimately have thee worst defensive team in the entire league. Nothing to do with goaltending?
Morris
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Hall looks disengaged, NS
Joined: 07.18.2007

Nov 28 @ 11:31 AM ET
Show me these 8 good games he's had. I had him in my hockey pool, he's had 4 good games this year, that's it, just 4, and we won 3 of the 4 where he actually played good.
- SpoiledByOil

24/25 W against Florida
14/14 W against Columbus
33/35 W against Calgary
34/37 W against SJS
23/24 L against DAL
29/32 W against MTL
35/36 W against OTT
37/40 L against NYI

I think you could even make an argument for 21/24 against TB, though Bishop outplayed him
Morris
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Hall looks disengaged, NS
Joined: 07.18.2007

Nov 28 @ 11:32 AM ET
So basically what everyone is trying to say is we legitimately have thee worst defensive team in the entire league. Nothing to do with goaltending?
- SpoiledByOil

Nope, I don't think anyone said that and you know it.

It'd be like me saying "basically what you're saying is that every goal scored against the Oilers is only Dubnyk's fault, even ones he's not on the ice for".
MaximumBone
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 06.15.2012

Nov 28 @ 11:33 AM ET
So basically what everyone is trying to say is we legitimately have thee worst defensive team in the entire league. Nothing to do with goaltending?
- SpoiledByOil

Holy (frank)ing Christ...

Once you decide to read our posts, feel free to reengage us in this debate, but for now, it's clear you don't care for a reasonable discussion on this matter. Good day to you.
SpoiledByOil
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 08.09.2012

Nov 28 @ 11:39 AM ET
24/25 W against Florida
14/14 W against Columbus
33/35 W against Calgary
34/37 W against SJS
23/24 L against DAL
29/32 W against MTL
35/36 W against OTT
37/40 L against NYI

I think you could even make an argument for 21/24 against TB, though Bishop outplayed him

- Morris



So a .913 is good, and in some cases exceptional to you? So for 8 games this year he's been very slightly below average and for the rest he's been horrible, but I'm glad you're ok with that.
SpoiledByOil
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 08.09.2012

Nov 28 @ 11:41 AM ET
Holy (frank)ing Christ...

Once you decide to read our posts, feel free to reengage us in this debate, but for now, it's clear you don't care for a reasonable discussion on this matter. Good day to you.

- MaximumBone



I've read your post, you guys are blaming our situation on less than stellar defensive play. We are the 2nd last team in the league and we've let in the 2nd most goals in the league, and you want to try and tell me Dubnyk isn't a problem? are you (frank)ing kidding me? Reasonable discussion, Dubnyk played slightly less than average for 8 games out of 18 and you think that's (frank)ing good, give me a break buddy, how about you come talk hockey when you actually know something about the game.

Edit: I've given you examples of other teams with poopty defense, and poopty overall standings over the last few years, where the only major changes were in net, and are all of a sudden legit playoff teams. All you keep doing is circle jerking about how Dubnyk has been good, and in some cases exceptional in 8 out of 18 games he started with a .913 save % , but yea. Whatever floats your boat.
TheTaoOfSemenko
Vegas Golden Knights
Joined: 07.01.2009

Nov 28 @ 11:48 AM ET
Generally agree with the blog.

One thing I would point out in defense of those cutting Dub some slack on those goals.

For Dub those were all decent quality difficult to save scenario's. Being scored on by those, rather than weak wrister's from the blue line or shots from behind the goal line is an improvement for Dub.

So while a normal goaltender would have stopped at least 2 of those difficult saves Dub clearly isn't in the same league as those types of goaltenders. So less is expected from him.

I can't say exactly why but I felt immensely better with Byrz out there.

Everyone calls Dub "The Big Easy". I don't get it. He panics every time he travels out of his crease and looks nervous as all hell any time anything remotely difficult comes his way. His size is the only thing that makes saves look easy.

Byrz had an urgency to his movements during the game. He moved from position to position to position quickly and seemly flawlessly. He has a much tighter game, much better mobility, much better puck handling and it was soooo refreshing to see.

I am very eager to see what the Oilers can do if Bryz regain his NHL form. From what i've watched of Byrz I think he is a much better goalie than Dub. He has a much bigger capacity to steal tough games.

- Aerchon

Wishful thinking at best.
The-O-G
Calgary Flames
Joined: 11.29.2011

Nov 28 @ 11:49 AM ET
Yeah and Berra should have had a shutout last night........
Morris
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Hall looks disengaged, NS
Joined: 07.18.2007

Nov 28 @ 11:49 AM ET
Last time he had a shutout was when he only had 14 shots on net. what a stud. Difference between a good goalie and a bad goalie is their poopty games come few and far between, Dubnyks good games are few and far between.
- SpoiledByOil

Let's define "good game" as a higher save % than league median among goalies with minimum 10 starts. Sound fair?

The number we're looking for is .918. Dubnyk has had 7 such starts. Of his remaining 12 starts, we won 2 of them and got points in another.

Here are the remaining 9 games:
Lost Chicago 5-1
Lost Chicago 5-4
Lost Philly 4-2
Lost TB 4-2 (EN)
Lost Wash 4-1
Lost MTL 4-1 (EN)
Lost Van 6-2
Lost Win 5-4

Take what you will of those 9 games, but we scored 1 and 2 goals in most of them. Dubnyk played above average in 7 starts, and downright awful in a couple, but he's probably not the sole reason we're bleeding points even in games where he wasn't up to snuff.


Morris
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Hall looks disengaged, NS
Joined: 07.18.2007

Nov 28 @ 11:51 AM ET
So a .913 is good, and in some cases exceptional to you? So for 8 games this year he's been very slightly below average and for the rest he's been horrible, but I'm glad you're ok with that.
- SpoiledByOil

Well I never said that Dubnyk was "exceptional" or that I'm anointing him our goaltender of the future, but those are perfectly fine games.
MaximumBone
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 06.15.2012

Nov 28 @ 11:53 AM ET
I've read your post, you guys are blaming our situation on less than stellar defensive play. We are the 2nd last team in the league and we've let in the 2nd most goals in the league, and you want to try and tell me Dubnyk isn't a problem? are you (frank)ing kidding me? Reasonable discussion, Dubnyk played slightly less than average for 8 games out of 18 and you think that's (frank)ing good, give me a break buddy, how about you come talk hockey when you actually know something about the game.
- SpoiledByOil

http://espn.go.com/nhl/pl...og/_/id/3242/devan-dubnyk

Slightly less than average? Pick out the 8 games that Morris mentioned and calculate his save percentage in those games and tell me it's "slightly less than average".

We're TRYING to be reasonable with you. Every other post we're admitting that he has been a major negative factor (if not the biggest one) in the team's current record. NO ONE has said otherwise. However, we continue to argue that you're wrong to have blamed him beyond that horrid start (specifically that last game). Here's what I said a page ago that you didn't reply to:

All goalies have sub-par years. Look at Quick last year when he started the first 10 or so game with a sub .900 sv % and was allowing around 3.00 GAA/game. Goalies have bad starts, but for the most part, they'll bounce back. Dubnyk's bad start was just accentuated by:

1.) New system stuggles
2.) Young team that can't figure out defense
3.) New pad sizes
4.) Increased expectations

Now he's over those things and seems to have turned a corner of late.


Here's another:

And that's fine, but to direct all of your frustration towards one piece of this team when that piece has been far from the the biggest issue of late is wrong. Yes, Dubnyk had a horrendous start (probably the worst I've ever seen), but there's plenty of reasons to explain why he struggled as badly as he did.


Note the "as of late" there?

But yeah, just keep on insisting that WE'RE the ones not being reasonable...
Morris
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Hall looks disengaged, NS
Joined: 07.18.2007

Nov 28 @ 11:55 AM ET
I've read your post, you guys are blaming our situation on less than stellar defensive play. We are the 2nd last team in the league and we've let in the 2nd most goals in the league, and you want to try and tell me Dubnyk isn't a problem? are you (frank)ing kidding me? Reasonable discussion, Dubnyk played slightly less than average for 8 games out of 18 and you think that's (frank)ing good, give me a break buddy, how about you come talk hockey when you actually know something about the game.

Edit: I've given you examples of other teams with poopty defense, and poopty overall standings over the last few years, where the only major changes were in net, and are all of a sudden legit playoff teams. All you keep doing is circle jerking about how Dubnyk has been good, and in some cases exceptional in 8 out of 18 games he started with a .913 save % , but yea. Whatever floats your boat.

- SpoiledByOil

The fact that you keep insisting this tells me that you're not reading what anyone else is saying.
MaximumBone
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 06.15.2012

Nov 28 @ 11:55 AM ET
Edit: I've given you examples of other teams with poopty defense, and poopty overall standings over the last few years, where the only major changes were in net, and are all of a sudden legit playoff teams. All you keep doing is circle jerking about how Dubnyk has been good, and in some cases exceptional in 8 out of 18 games he started with a .913 save % , but yea. Whatever floats your boat.
- SpoiledByOil

And we're giving reasons why those teams are doing well besides and including goaltending, but you're not reading. Did you even read my post about the Lightning? How about hugeb!thch's post on Colorado? No? Ok. We're done here then.
SpoiledByOil
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 08.09.2012

Nov 28 @ 11:56 AM ET
Let's define "good game" as a higher save % than league median among goalies with minimum 10 starts. Sound fair?

The number we're looking for is .918. Dubnyk has had 7 such starts. Of his remaining 12 starts, we won 2 of them and got points in another.

Here are the remaining 9 games:
Lost Chicago 5-1
Lost Chicago 5-4
Lost Philly 4-2
Lost TB 4-2 (EN)
Lost Wash 4-1
Lost MTL 4-1 (EN)
Lost Van 6-2
Lost Win 5-4

Take what you will of those 9 games, but we scored 1 and 2 goals in most of them. Dubnyk played above average in 7 starts, and downright awful in a couple, but he's probably not the sole reason we're bleeding points even in games where he wasn't up to snuff.

- Morris


7 above average starts in 18 starts is not a good goalie, especially when he's other 11 starts were so fricking it drops his average down to .891. He's not even a .900 goalie, if any other starting goalie in the league had less than a .900 save % teams would be in an uproar over their goaltending. Not the Oilers though, Dubnyk is a champ.
MaximumBone
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 06.15.2012

Nov 28 @ 11:58 AM ET
7 above average starts in 18 starts is not a good goalie, especially when he's other 11 starts were so fricking it drops his average down to .891. He's not even a .900 goalie, if any other starting goalie in the league had less than a .900 save % teams would be in an uproar over their goaltending. Not the Oilers though, Dubnyk is a champ.
- SpoiledByOil

GODDAM LAW OF MOTHER(frank)ING AVERAGES
SpoiledByOil
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 08.09.2012

Nov 28 @ 11:58 AM ET
http://espn.go.com/nhl/pl...og/_/id/3242/devan-dubnyk

Slightly less than average? Pick out the 8 games that Morris mentioned and calculate his save percentage in those games and tell me it's "slightly less than average".


We're TRYING to be reasonable with you. Every other post we're admitting that he has been a major negative factor (if not the biggest one) in the team's current record. NO ONE has said otherwise. However, we continue to argue that you're wrong to have blamed him beyond that horrid start (specifically that last game). Here's what I said a page ago that you didn't reply to:



Here's another:



Note the "as of late" there?

But yeah, just keep on insisting that WE'RE the ones not being reasonable...

- MaximumBone



Now who's not reading what? I did average out those 8 games, his save percentage was .913, that's not less than average? No to you it's (frank)ing exceptional lol
Morris
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Hall looks disengaged, NS
Joined: 07.18.2007

Nov 28 @ 11:59 AM ET
7 above average starts in 18 starts is not a good goalie, especially when he's other 11 starts were so fricking it drops his average down to .891. He's not even a .900 goalie, if any other starting goalie in the league had less than a .900 save % teams would be in an uproar over their goaltending. Not the Oilers though, Dubnyk is a champ.
- SpoiledByOil

You asked how many good games he had, and I answered honestly. Then, I suggested that he maybe isn't 'costing us points' as much as you seem to think he is.

I don't know that anyone here is suggesting that Dubnyk is great, or a champ, or that we're completely fine with Dubnyk as a goalie
TheTaoOfSemenko
Vegas Golden Knights
Joined: 07.01.2009

Nov 28 @ 12:00 PM ET
You asked how many good games he had, and I answered honestly. Then, I suggested that he maybe isn't 'costing us points' as much as you seem to think he is.

I don't know that anyone here is suggesting that Dubnyk is great, or a champ, or that we're completely fine with Dubnyk as a goalie

- Morris

SHUT YOUR FILTHY MOUTH DUBNYK LOVER
Hughk
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Edmonton
Joined: 11.28.2013

Nov 28 @ 12:01 PM ET
Hey, new guy here! I wanna be first one day!
Morris
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Hall looks disengaged, NS
Joined: 07.18.2007

Nov 28 @ 12:02 PM ET
Now who's not reading what? I did average out those 8 games, his save percentage was .913, that's not less than average? No to you it's (frank)ing exceptional lol
- SpoiledByOil

Hey you should stop saying .913 You did the calculation wrong.

in those 8 games:

(24 + 14 + 33 + 34 + 23 + 29 + 35 + 37 saves = 229) / (25 + 14 + 35 + 24 + 32 + 37 + 40 shots = 243) = .942 save percentage

In fact, even if you added up the "save percentages" for each game and divided by 8, you'd get .947. How did you get .913?
TheTaoOfSemenko
Vegas Golden Knights
Joined: 07.01.2009

Nov 28 @ 12:03 PM ET
Hey, new guy here! I wanna be first one day!
- HughJasscok

hey lb how are you?
Hughk
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Edmonton
Joined: 11.28.2013

Nov 28 @ 12:04 PM ET
How do I put an avatar in here?
SpoiledByOil
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 08.09.2012

Nov 28 @ 12:04 PM ET
Let's define "good game" as a higher save % than league median among goalies with minimum 10 starts. Sound fair?

The number we're looking for is .918. Dubnyk has had 7 such starts. Of his remaining 12 starts, we won 2 of them and got points in another.

Here are the remaining 9 games:
Lost Chicago 5-1
Lost Chicago 5-4
Lost Philly 4-2
Lost TB 4-2 (EN)
Lost Wash 4-1
Lost MTL 4-1 (EN)
Lost Van 6-2
Lost Win 5-4

Take what you will of those 9 games, but we scored 1 and 2 goals in most of them. Dubnyk played above average in 7 starts, and downright awful in a couple, but he's probably not the sole reason we're bleeding points even in games where he wasn't up to snuff.

- Morris


I've never said he was the sole reason, I did say he is one of the biggest reasons. I said if he wasn't doing so bad we probably still wouldn't be in a playoff position with the way we've been defensively, but we would more than likely be fighting for a spot.
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