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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Lost Weekend, Grossmann, Gostisbehere Injury
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stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jan 13 @ 7:35 PM ET
I wanted to ask you who is your most important defenseman right now?
- PhillySportsGuy

thats a toughie. as odd as it sounds, niskanen really has been the rock this year. when he is healthy, its typically paul martin though. letang has generally been too inconsistent for it to be him the past year or so, whether it be overly risky play or health issues. scuderi missed a ton of time as well and has been rusty in his return. orpik has been flat out awful the past handful of games as well. so yeah, i honestly think niskanen has been the rock for them this year. thats not necessarily a good thing considering how the roster is set up, but right now at this moment theyre still winning games somehow. not a good recipe for long term success though.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jan 13 @ 7:36 PM ET
I was looking forward to Rinaldo taking another step forward this season, but man has he really not done that. I like guys like him, even liked Carcillo, but when you start to hurt the team sorry there are others that want that spot.
- LJF


I was too. I thought he'd take a step forward and become a decent defensive player. That is completely the opposite of what happened.
EastBeast18
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.19.2010

Jan 13 @ 7:36 PM ET
#Murika
- hereticpride


#fukyea!
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jan 13 @ 7:37 PM ET
I was too. I thought he'd take a step forward and become a decent defensive player. That is completely the opposite of what happened.
- PhillySportsGuy

this isnt anti flyers bias by any means, because i generally have more positive opinions of guys than negative, but rinaldo just sucks.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jan 13 @ 7:37 PM ET
thats a toughie. as odd as it sounds, niskanen really has been the rock this year. when he is healthy, its typically paul martin though. letang has generally been too inconsistent for it to be him the past year or so, whether it be overly risky play or health issues. scuderi missed a ton of time as well and has been rusty in his return. orpik has been flat out awful the past handful of games as well. so yeah, i honestly think niskanen has been the rock for them this year. thats not necessarily a good thing considering how the roster is set up, but right now at this moment theyre still winning games somehow. not a good recipe for long term success though.
- stayinthefnnet


I was having an argument over whether letang was a legit #1 dman. I said he wasn't and that we should ask the Pens fans who they could most ill-afford to lose. I thought it was be Martin.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jan 13 @ 7:39 PM ET
this isnt anti flyers bias by any means, because i generally have more positive opinions of guys than negative, but rinaldo just sucks.
- stayinthefnnet


He was good last year! He rarely hurt the team and drew a lot of penalties. He always brought really good energy. He's nothing like he was last year. He was one of the few bright spots last year.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jan 13 @ 7:47 PM ET
The one thing that's going to have to be fixed is where Lecavalier goes -- if Raffl's in the Top 9, then even without Downie, you have:

Raffl-Giroux-Voracek, all signed
Hartnell-Schenn-Simmonds -- Schenn RFA
Read-Couturier-Lecavalier -- all signed

There might not even be room for Downie, if nobody gets moved for a defenseman.

Hell, if the Flyers play hardball with Raffl, they don't have to give him a penny more than the 10 percent raise due for his qualifying offer.

- AllInForFlyers



I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Raffl probably isn't in the picture next season... like how everybody was assuming McGinn was going to be the mix for this year based on small sample with the top-line. I think our Austrian friend will either be w/ the Phantoms or lost to a generous offer overseas.

Laughton's going to be next season's Couturier ala 2011... I suspect they're going to be willing to move mountains to get him into the lineup, and probably not as a 4th-liner either.

As for the question of where Vinny plays now that Coots/Schenn have taken steps forward... that's precisely the reason why some of us really abhorred the signing to begin with. You've got kids, you know you have to play the heck out of them... now you've turned Vinny into Briere #2.
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Jan 13 @ 7:49 PM ET
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Raffl probably isn't in the picture next season... like how everybody was assuming McGinn was going to be the mix for this year based on small sample with the top-line. I think our Austrian friend will either be w/ the Phantoms or lost to a generous offer overseas.

Laughton's going to be next season's Couturier ala 2011... I suspect they're going to be willing to move mountains to get him into the lineup, and probably not as a 4th-liner either.

As for the question of where Vinny plays now that Coots/Schenn have taken steps forward... that's precisely the reason why some of us really abhorred the signing to begin with. You've got kids, you know you have to play the heck out of them... now you've turned Vinny into Briere #2.

- Tomahawk


Laughton for me moves in at 3rd line center. What happens with B. Schenn is another story, perhaps he's one they look to move maybe in a draft day deal.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jan 13 @ 7:51 PM ET
What happens with B. Schenn is another story, perhaps he's one they look to move maybe in a draft day deal.
- ob18



JvR for L.Schenn Part II?
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Jan 13 @ 7:52 PM ET
JvR for L.Schenn Part II?
- Tomahawk


No clue, I'll leave that up to the armchair GM's to toss crazy rumors. That's just a guess really.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jan 13 @ 7:55 PM ET
Laughton for me moves in at 3rd line center. What happens with B. Schenn is another story, perhaps he's one they look to move maybe in a draft day deal.
- ob18


Would you rather Laughton play wing with Couturier and Read or 4th line center? Do you think Cousins will ever make it to the NHL?
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Jan 13 @ 7:57 PM ET
Would you rather Laughton play wing with Couturier and Read or 4th line center? Do you think Cousins will ever make it to the NHL?
- PhillySportsGuy


Laughton can play wing but he's a much more effective player at center. I don't know how Cousins has been doing with his game in the AHL to suggest if he'll ever make it to the NHL and if so what role he'll play.

hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Jan 13 @ 7:59 PM ET
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Raffl probably isn't in the picture next season... like how everybody was assuming McGinn was going to be the mix for this year based on small sample with the top-line. I think our Austrian friend will either be w/ the Phantoms or lost to a generous offer overseas.

Laughton's going to be next season's Couturier ala 2011... I suspect they're going to be willing to move mountains to get him into the lineup, and probably not as a 4th-liner either.

As for the question of where Vinny plays now that Coots/Schenn have taken steps forward... that's precisely the reason why some of us really abhorred the signing to begin with. You've got kids, you know you have to play the heck out of them... now you've turned Vinny into Briere #2.

- Tomahawk

If nothing else you buy a couple of draft picks from the Vinny signing. With the cap going up his deal really isn't anywhere near as bad Briere's had become. That said, I think he stays in the mix.

Raffl is a tough call. I think you could maybe get a pick out of him at the draft, but I still think this team has a hole on the 1st line left wing that no one on the team is really able to fill to much success.

When healthy this team has a ton of guys to play top 9 minutes next year. It will surely be interesting to see who stays and who goes. They could actually roll 4 scoring lines next year with all the guys they currently have if the cap somehow allowed it.


Raffl G Jake
BSchenn Vinny Simmer
Downie Coots Read
Hartnell Laughton McGinn
puckhead17
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Old Time Hockey
Joined: 08.14.2011

Jan 13 @ 8:07 PM ET
Laughton for me moves in at 3rd line center. What happens with B. Schenn is another story, perhaps he's one they look to move maybe in a draft day deal.
- ob18


Schenn may have too much upside as a top 6 forward, don't see Cout's having enough offensive punch to play in the top 6?
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jan 13 @ 8:09 PM ET
But...if Timonen and Meszaros and Gill all retire/leave, we will have to...right? They'll make it fit -- they'll have to.

I can't project who!

- AllInForFlyers



Well, you know for certain that they'll only have so much to spend, with multiple holes to fill.

You also have to figure that they'll be another knee-jerk/over-compensation/can't-believe-this-guy-is-available-can't-pass-him-up move coming up this summer... like clockwork. What's scary is that it might not have anything to do w/ the impending d shortage. Say they go into an offensive tail-spin late in the season and barely miss the PO's... or Vinny goes on LTIR forever... or they rip a hole up front to patch the back-end... or they just feel like it... they could end up blowing a ton of $$$ chasing after Vanek or Marleau or somebody like that, and having fewer resources to address other issues. Like not having Pronger and wasting all their time on Parise, for some reason.

And the other thing is... Mason. His agent is on record pointing to Carey Price as a comparable. Pavelec's ridiculous extension will probably serve as the starting point for negotiations... hard to argue that Pav's actually any good, nor has ever hit the kind of highs that Mason has. So realistically, Mason will probably cost anywhere between $4.25-6M per to re-sign, depending on term and how he finishes out 2014.

And, I'm assuming they'll try to swing something at the deadline, and that player(s) might need to be re-signed to justify the expenditure of assets.

I dunno... I really don't feel comfortable assuming they'll be much flexibility this summer, even with the cap shooting up.
KGBflyers10
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: United States, PA
Joined: 10.28.2007

Jan 13 @ 8:14 PM ET
Well, you know for certain that they'll only have so much to spend, with multiple holes to fill.

You also have to figure that they'll be another knee-jerk/over-compensation/can't-believe-this-guy-is-available-can't-pass-him-up move coming up this summer... like clockwork. What's scary is that it might not have anything to do w/ the impending d shortage. Say they go into an offensive tail-spin late in the season and barely miss the PO's... or Vinny goes on LTIR forever... or they rip a hole up front to patch the back-end... or they just feel like it... they could end up blowing a ton of $$$ chasing after Vanek or Marleau or somebody like that, and having fewer resources to address other issues. Like not having Pronger and wasting all their time on Parise, for some reason.

And the other thing is... Mason. His agent is on record pointing to Carey Price as a comparable. Pavelec's ridiculous extension will probably serve as the starting point for negotiations... hard to argue that Pav's actually any good, nor has ever hit the kind of highs that Mason has. So realistically, Mason will probably cost anywhere between $4.25-6M per to re-sign, depending on term and how he finishes out 2014.

And, I'm assuming they'll try to swing something at the deadline, and that player(s) might need to be re-signed to justify the expenditure of assets.

I dunno... I really don't feel comfortable assuming they'll be much flexibility this summer, even with the cap shooting up.

- Tomahawk


This is why it's imperative to me that the team gives Gus, Lauridsen, and Alt a chance in the lineup. Especially considering the fact that their D is a cap mess. You never know with young guys, some step up, others do not. But the important thing is to at least give them a shot.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Jan 13 @ 8:33 PM ET
Lots of talk regarding the Flyers defense or lack thereof today. FWIW here's my 2 cents:

The problem to me is very simple, they lack a top pairing. None of their current defensemen are #1 or #2 guys and that causes problems for each pair.
Coburn/Timonen is a solid to very good 2nd pair, however the Flyers are forced to use them as a top pairing and that is simply asking too much. Streit/Grossmann and Mezaros/Schenn would both be very good 3rd pairings, however neither is overall strong enough to be a 2nd pairing on a top club. Gus is no more than 3rd pair guy and Gill is barely that.

Do the Flyers have top pairing guys in their prospect pipeline? Maybe.
Morin and Hagg both have the POTENTIAL to be top pairing guys, but we won't really know for years. Certainly neither one is going to be a top guy next season or in 15-16. Alt may have a very slim shot at developing into a top pair guy, but its much more likely that his top end is as a 2nd pairing guy. Lauridsen is a 2nd pair shutdown guy at best and Ghost will never be big and strong enough to be a top pair guy either.

So where to go from here? The Flyers do have enough depth up front to probably trade for one top pair guy in the offseason. Short term improvement will have to come via trade as there will likely be little left of any value in free agency by July 1st. Be prepared, because a top pair guy will be costly. A team like Phoenix badly needs scoring up front, and I believe Yandle can be acquired after the season (OEL is likely untouchable in Phoenix's eyes). However Yandle would mostly likely cost something like B. Schenn, a 1st in 2014, and most likely a secondary asset or two such as a 2nd in 2015 and a lesser prospect like Cousins or McGinn.

This would leave the Flyers with the following D going into free agency.
Coburn
Yandle
Streit
Grossmann
Gustafsson

The other 2 spots could go to a free agent if they feel there is one worth signing or to some combo of Lauridsen, Alt or Manning. Timonen is a wild card. If he is willing to come back in a 2nd pairing role at a reduced cost, they would likely re-sign him.

Either way, developing the Flyers D corps into a Stanley Cup level unit will probably take another 2 seasons unless by some miracle they are able to acquire someone like Weber or Pietrangelo and I very much doubt that happens.
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Jan 13 @ 8:37 PM ET
Just back reading a bit.

It seems the mood of the board, is in favour of a move to shorten time until this team is ready to compete.

While I understand it, personally, I would be in favour of the opposite. More organic growth, instead of what has been the norm for years.

The big issue with that is that yes, you burn off years from Giroux in his prime, but this was something we all could see coming was it not? The age of the d-core and forward group do not mix. I remember a few of us a couple years back saying just how hard it will be to get d-men in the future. To hear back that d-men will always be available and so on...

Its unfortunate, but I think the team will bite the bullet here.
JoeRussomanno
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: me bitter? F-no i think it's hilarious
Joined: 12.14.2011

Jan 13 @ 8:41 PM ET
Lots of talk regarding the Flyers defense or lack thereof today. FWIW here's my 2 cents:

The problem to me is very simple, they lack a top pairing. None of their current defensemen are #1 or #2 guys and that causes problems for each pair.
Coburn/Timonen is a solid to very good 2nd pair, however the Flyers are forced to use them as a top pairing and that is simply asking too much. Streit/Grossmann and Mezaros/Schenn would both be very good 3rd pairings, however neither is overall strong enough to be a 2nd pairing on a top club. Gus is no more than 3rd pair guy and Gill is barely that.

Do the Flyers have top pairing guys in their prospect pipeline? Maybe.
Morin and Hagg both have the POTENTIAL to be top pairing guys, but we won't really know for years. Certainly neither one is going to be a top guy next season or in 15-16. Alt may have a very slim shot at developing into a top pair guy, but its much more likely that his top end is as a 2nd pairing guy. Lauridsen is a 2nd pair shutdown guy at best and Ghost will never be big and strong enough to be a top pair guy either.

So where to go from here? The Flyers do have enough depth up front to probably trade for one top pair guy in the offseason. Short term improvement will have to come via trade as there will likely be little left of any value in free agency by July 1st. Be prepared, because a top pair guy will be costly. A team like Phoenix badly needs scoring up front, and I believe Yandle can be acquired after the season (OEL is likely untouchable in Phoenix's eyes). However Yandle would mostly likely cost something like B. Schenn, a 1st in 2014, and most likely a secondary asset or two such as a 2nd in 2015 and a lesser prospect like Cousins or McGinn.

This would leave the Flyers with the following D going into free agency.
Coburn
Yandle
Streit
Grossmann
Gustafsson

The other 2 spots could go to a free agent if they feel there is one worth signing or to some combo of Lauridsen, Alt or Manning. Timonen is a wild card. If he is willing to come back in a 2nd pairing role at a reduced cost, they would likely re-sign him.

Either way, developing the Flyers D corps into a Stanley Cup level unit will probably take another 2 seasons unless by some miracle they are able to acquire someone like Weber or Pietrangelo and I very much doubt that happens.

- BiggE

I dont know that yandle is the answer.
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Jan 13 @ 8:43 PM ET
Schenn may have too much upside as a top 6 forward, don't see Cout's having enough offensive punch to play in the top 6?
- puckhead17


I think Couts has enough to be a top 6 player more so than Schenn. But that will differ on peoples opinion.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jan 13 @ 8:48 PM ET
Just back reading a bit.

It seems the mood of the board, is in favour of a move to shorten time until this team is ready to compete.

While I understand it, personally, I would be in favour of the opposite. More organic growth, instead of what has been the norm for years.

The big issue with that is that yes, you burn off years from Giroux in his prime, but this was something we all could see coming was it not? The age of the d-core and forward group do not mix. I remember a few of us a couple years back saying just how hard it will be to get d-men in the future. To hear back that d-men will always be available and so on...

Its unfortunate, but I think the team will bite the bullet here.

- flyer_nutter


Even if Giroux is over 30, I think he will still be a good player. He may not be the point per game guy we have now, but he will certainly be up in the 60-70 point range. Couple him with a mature Couturier, Schenn and Laughton and thats a strong lineup down the middle. Teams like Boston have won without a bonafide point per game center. They have two very good two centers in Krecji and Bergeron. They also have a guy like Marchand.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jan 13 @ 8:49 PM ET
The problem to me is very simple, they lack a top pairing. None of their current defensemen are #1 or #2 guys and that causes problems for each pair.
- BiggE



Pens haven't their top guy just about all year... they're doing great. I'm not even sure if Martin is what you would consider top-pairing quality, and even he's missed half the year.

Avs are succeeding with what can only be described as a bare-bones d-corps. Johnson's played well, but he hasn't really played up to the level of a legit top-pair level guy at any point in his career.

Anaheim is another team that succeeds despite being thin/young on the back-end... Fowler's finally putting up points again, but he's not shutting anybody down... and there's not much behind him in terms of top-level talent.

So I guess my point is that it's not as simple as not having a true top-pairing on D. They could go out, do whatever's necessary, and come back with Shea Weber... and this team could still be struggling if the rest of the d-corp can't be counted on to execute on both sides of the puck. 1-7, they need to be able to move their feet and move the puck and make smart reads. I'd rather them add two top-4 D for $4M each than blow $8M on one top-tier guy.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jan 13 @ 8:50 PM ET
I think Couts has enough to be a top 6 player more so than Schenn. But that will differ on peoples opinion.
- ob18


Couturier was a top 6 center for about half the season thus far. When he played with Read and Downie, they were a very strong combination. Offensively and defensively. He may be listed as the third line center, but he is one of the 3 most important forwards on the team.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Jan 13 @ 8:51 PM ET
I dont know that yandle is the answer.
- JoeRussomanno

Perhaps not, Im just using him to make the point that acquiring any top pair guy is going be costly.
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Jan 13 @ 8:51 PM ET
Even if Giroux is over 30, I think he will still be a good player. He may not be the point per game guy we have now, but he will certainly be up in the 60-70 point range. Couple him with a mature Couturier, Schenn and Laughton and thats a strong lineup down the middle. Teams like Boston have won without a bonafide point per game center. They have two very good two centers in Krecji and Bergeron. They also have a guy like Marchand.
- PhillySportsGuy


His injury history scares me a bit more in regards to a possible decline.

I am in this line of thinking though, and I have gone back in forth on it for a while. Keep the youth, keep the picks. If a chance for a young, up-and-coming d-man comes in you try for a deal like that.

Or if you can lead a package with Hartnell for example. Otherwise, keep the youth, bite the bullet of not being able to develop your own back end for years, and build it right. The old way hasn't worked out too well. Nutter's crazy thoughts.
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