Without going overboard, do you think they can make a run this year as they did a few years back while getting to the finals against the Hawks, or do you think they can't win consistently enough?
- Hokeeguy9

My motto is "Just get in".

I think this team has the capability to make a deep run. A lot has to go right, but I think it can happen.

I think this team will make the playoffs. I do. And if you squeak into the dance anything can happen. This next week and a half is gonna be the measuring stick.

I just found some more guys that aren't buyin' what BSH is sellin...some good refutations in here (amongst the garbage)

http://www.reddit.com/r/F...blem_broad_street_hockey/
- exlund

I would like to see Grossmann QoC numbers and how they rank among Flyers D-men.

Also, I'd like to see how Grossmann's career advanced stats compare to someone like Brooks Orpik.

While I'm one of those Grossmann fans mentioned in that blog,who admits he's been having a rough January, I think that piece is a bit over the top with generalizing some (suspect) advanced stats in order to make such a strong indictment of the player. A lot of those numbers can be influenced by other players and factors, such as when the forwards don't support to give good options for moving the puck out...

Grossmann isn't a puck moving defenseman by trade...he can do basic puck moving but the core of his game is to be physical down low and along the boards, maybe around the net...I've personally seen many times when he does his job, of standing a player up against the boards or forcing him off the puck, and there's little to no support, only the more opposing players to get the puck again...or, when he is able to get possession and there are opposing players between him and the forwards (due to lack of proper support) and he's left with poor options to move the puck (resulting in icings and the other zone exits without possession) ...I'd bet that, in those instances where the support is there, his zone exit stats are significantly higher...

Also, I have my doubts about the data...for example, with the zone exit data, they say

"Only 31.1 percent of Grossmann's zone exit attempts leave the defensive end successfully and also see the Flyers retain possession of the puck past the blue line."

As I said Grossmann's not a puck mover by trade, so he typically passes to his D partner or a forward if one is actually supporting nearby. Are the stats tracking those passes? Are they then blaming him for another player's turnover or loss of possession? Are they only talking about the times Grossmann actually has to try and get it out himself? If so, it's likely because other options aren't available (lack of support), and it's probably not the ideal situation for a Defensive D man to be in... he has to try and just get it out of the zone any way he can, obviously you're not going to keep possession in most of those instances...I don't think the author considered these finer points...at least he admitted the part about different players "efficiency" rating being lower when out with Grossmann possibly being due to the fact that Berube deploys Grossmann in defensive situations.

The bottom line to me is I have seen the guy play and know he's not the cause of the team's defensive woes, his January swoon notwithstanding. If you want to say they're having to use him too much or shouldn't use him in certain ways and/or he's not put with an ideal partner, I would be more apt to agree, but to basically say they guy is dragging the whole team down...nope...not going to buy that one...just like I didn't buy the BSH article that tried to tell us that the Flyers already had Ryan Suter in Matt Carle.
- exlund

Here's a breakdown of how they tabulate the numbers for zone-exits:
http://www.inlouwetrust.c...ne-exit-and-passing-stats. Nothing really fishy there.


If you think the piece is blasting Grossmann for not being a puck-mover, you're missing the point. They're just pointing out that Grossmann is far and away the worst guy, including Schenn (who's also having a bad year), at clearing/moving the puck out of the zone successfully.

That includes stuff like chips off the glass and rimming it around the boards, etc... not just the skilled stuff that an Erik Karlsson does.

Anyway, you can dismiss the numbers, or how they're collected... but we've seen with our own eyes how much time Grossmann/Streit have spent in their own zone all season, and how often they've been torched for goals against. If they continue to be relied upon in a top-4 role, and tasked with stopping the other team's second-best lines, this team is in for more rough times ahead.

hey look a carcillo penalty
- 2Real

Hey look, a Carcillo GWG. He's more irrelevant than Shelley!

My motto is "Just get in".

I think this team has the capability to make a deep run. A lot has to go right, but I think it can happen.

I think this team will make the playoffs. I do. And if you squeak into the dance anything can happen. This next week and a half is gonna be the measuring stick.
- Giroux_Is_God

I actually think this team is built for the playoffs. The tricky part is getting there.

the thing for me is.....i want only one of grossman/l schenn/coburn in my d core. In todays NHL effective puck moving is more paramount than porch clearing or shot blocking.

the thing for me is.....i want only one of grossman/l schenn/coburn in my d core. In todays NHL effective puck moving is more paramount than porch clearing or shot blocking.
- Just5

Flyers are still living in a world where guys like Derian Hatcher can control a game... aside from LA, you'd be hard-pressed to find many top-4 guys like that among the best teams in the league.

The modern defensive D can skate, can pass, along with all the shot-blocking and physical stuff -- Orpik, Girardi, Beauchemin, Brad Stuart, etc.

Flyers are still living in a world where guys like Derian Hatcher can control a game... aside from LA, you'd be hard-pressed to find many top-4 guys like that among the best teams in the league.

The modern defensive D can skate, can pass, along with all the shot-blocking and physical stuff -- Orpik, Girardi, Beauchemin, Brad Stuart, etc.
- Tomahawk

Even so the kings have not one but two elite puck movers in voynov and doughty, and a very good up and comer in muzzin. who all by the way are getting more ice time than the defensive dmen. willie mitchell is more mobile with a better pass than schenn or grossman. regehr is a classic statue. m greene has been scratched half the time

the thing for me is.....i want only one of grossman/l schenn/coburn in my d core. In todays NHL effective puck moving is more paramount than porch clearing or shot blocking.
- Just5

The fact that people still equate Coburn, Schenn, and Grossmann continues to amaze me.

The fact that people still equate Coburn, Schenn, and Grossmann continues to amaze me.
- jmatchett383

say what you want. coburn has above average speed with below puck moving ability. i'll take coburn out of that group and rebuild my d core

say what you want. coburn has above average speed with below puck moving ability. i'll take coburn out of that group and rebuild my d core
- Just5

He is also much better at joining the rush, getting and maintaining puck possession, headmanning the puck, stickhandling, and basically any/all parts of the game requiring foot speed and puck control than the other 2 you mentioned. But sure, they're interchangable.

Now, Grossmann and Schenn brings very similar games, and as much as I like Grossmann, I wouldn't be terribly heart broken if one/both of them were traded (for market value).

He is also much better at joining the rush, getting and maintaining puck possession, headmanning the puck, stickhandling, and basically any/all parts of the game requiring foot speed and puck control than the other 2 you mentioned. But sure, they're interchangable.
- jmatchett383

so are 99% of other nhl dmen?

so are 99% of other nhl dmen?
- Just5

Probably somewhere like 65-70%, but I'd say only about 35-40% or so bring the physical/defensive tools they have.

Probably somewhere like 65-70%, but I'd say only about 35-40% or so bring the physical/defensive tools they have.
- jmatchett383

yes....only 65% of nhl dmen are faster and better puck movers than our 2 relics

yes....only 65% of nhl dmen are faster and better puck movers than our 2 relics
- Just5

Yes. How green is the grass over there?

Blisting indictment of Grossmann, citing really interesting/novel zone-exit stats (clearing attemps, zone-exits leading to retained possessions) that I've never seen before... all tied up in a bow for Jsaq.




Confirmed what a lot of us have suspected for awhile now... reason he has so many hits and blocked shots is because he's terrible at getting the puck out of the zone, leading to the team being hemmed in, playing without the puck for extended stretches.
- Tomahawk

Shhhh...if you say that too often, you're "negative."

Funny how Streit has been the whipping boy on here all season.

Not one defenseman is better from a possession standpoint when playing with Nicklas Grossmann. Five of the six Flyers blueliners are positive possession players overall when away from Grossmann.

Mark Streit, who has been saddled with him on his pairing more than any other defenseman, actually has solid second pairing-worthy statistics when freed of Grossmann. In addition to his decent Corsi, his goals-for percentage sans Grossmann is a strong 56.7 percentage.

Funny how Streit has been the whipping boy on here all season.
- Feanor

I said a few weeks back that instead of focusing on Streit and blaming him for everything that went wrong with that pairing, maybe people should be looking at Grossmann.

It would've been easier, I think, to convince the free world that the world was flat and that the Earth orbits the sun

I said a few weeks back that instead of focusing on Streit and blaming him for everything that went wrong with that pairing, maybe people should be looking at Grossmann.

It would've been easier, I think, to convince the free world that the world was flat and that the Earth orbits the sun
- AllInForFlyers

perspective.

Here's a breakdown of how they tabulate the numbers for zone-exits:
http://www.inlouwetrust.c...ne-exit-and-passing-stats. Nothing really fishy there.


- Tomahawk[quote=Tomahawk]
If you think the piece is blasting Grossmann for not being a puck-mover, you're missing the point. They're just pointing out that Grossmann is far and away the worst guy, including Schenn (who's also having a bad year), at clearing/moving the puck out of the zone successfully.

Well, I would think that a player's ability to clear/move the puck out of the zone successfully and the player's puck moving ability is very closely tied.

That includes stuff like chips off the glass and rimming it around the boards, etc... not just the skilled stuff that an Erik Karlsson does.
- Tomahawk

Right...and when that is done, it's not often that a team keeps possession, especially when there are opposing players between the guy making the play and his mates.

Anyway, you can dismiss the numbers, or how they're collected... but we've seen with our own eyes how much time Grossmann/Streit have spent in their own zone all season, and how often they've been torched for goals against. If they continue to be relied upon in a top-4 role, and tasked with stopping the other team's second-best lines, this team is in for more rough times ahead.
- Tomahawk

I'm not really dismissing the numbers completely...they are interesting and I'm sure have some level of truth to them, I just question interpreting them in a vacuum (not considering the other factors that come into play), as a means to make the type of conclusions about a player like that BSH author did...when you do that you run the risk of making erroneous conclusions, such as when the same outfit (BSH) concluded that Matt Carle's game was on par with Ryan Suter.

I said a few weeks back that instead of focusing on Streit and blaming him for everything that went wrong with that pairing, maybe people should be looking at Grossmann.

It would've been easier, I think, to convince the free world that the world was flat and that the Earth orbits the sun
- AllInForFlyers

I think we'd need to go back and look at other seasons. My argument has never been the Grossmann is playing well. It's more that he has preformed well in the past and to let him break out of his slump by playing. If his numbers from years past reveal the same thing, then it may be a good idea to take a hard look at moving on.

I think we'd need to go back and look at other seasons. My argument has never been the Grossmann is playing well. It's more that he has preformed well in the past and to let him break out of his slump by playing. If his numbers from years past reveal the same thing, then it may be a good idea to take a hard look at moving on.
- PhillySportsGuy

I wonder what Derian Hatcher's numbers in 98/99 looked like. Or Scott Stevens in 02/03.

Well, I would think that a player's ability to clear/move the puck out of the zone successfully and the player's puck moving ability is very closely tied.

Right...and when that is done, it's not often that a team keeps possession, especially when there are opposing players between the guy making the play and his mates.
- exlund

Just getting it out of the zone is considered a "success" by their count... Grossmann is only 66% capable of doing that.

Now, if you want to talk about retaining possession on zone-exit (like a tape-to-tape outlet, or an indirect play to an open guy), Grossmann is in the 30% range.

Luke Schenn is no puck-mover, but he's better at zone-exits than Grossmann. Hal Gill is no puck-mover, but he's better than Grossmann. Isn't that significant, considering that Grossmann's in the top-4?

I'm not really dismissing the numbers completely...they are interesting and I'm sure have some level of truth to them, I just question interpreting them in a vacuum (not considering the other factors that come into play), as a means to make the type of conclusions about a player like that BSH author did...when you do that you run the risk of making erroneous conclusions, such as when the same outfit (BSH) concluded that Matt Carle's game was on par with Ryan Suter.
- exlund

They also reached the conclusion that Matt Hunwick was a "dominant" player once... but that doesn't mean the numbers always lie. If the metrics jive with eyeball observations, then it's good enough for me.

Hal Gill is no puck-mover, but he's better than Grossmann.
- Tomahawk

This right here, to me, proves that this whole advanced stats thing is overblown malarky by a bunch of people who like to tout how smart they are at understanding the deep intricacies of hockey by the use of smoke and mirrors viewed in a vacuum.

Oh, and, um, Grossmann's the worst Flyers defenseman of all time and should be playing in a beer league.

I think we'd need to go back and look at other seasons. My argument has never been the Grossmann is playing well. It's more that he has preformed well in the past and to let him break out of his slump by playing. If his numbers from years past reveal the same thing, then it may be a good idea to take a hard look at moving on.
- PhillySportsGuy

Certainly, you can do that -- they should do that. Track record does matter.

But sometimes...you have to know when, exactly, to cut the cord and see what you look like without a player who is struggling this much.

Again: I have nothing against Nicklas Grossmann. Because anybody who blocks pucks flying at 60 mph and above doesn't deserve disrespect.

My contention is this, and has always been this: The Flyers are a flawed team. But they really are better than they look, at times, and if they get into the playoffs, they could be extremely dangerous.

My question is this: At what point should player loyalty take a back seat to the greater interests of the team? Just as you shouldn't discard Grossmann simply because of a few bad games, maybe even a few bad weeks...those numbers, for the season, are...they're approaching horrific.

The Flyers will need every win they can get, if making the playoffs is the goal. Their margin for error, I think everyone would agree, is smaller than any of us would like.