Certainly, you can do that -- they should do that. Track record does matter.

But sometimes...you have to know when, exactly, to cut the cord and see what you look like without a player who is struggling this much.

Again: I have nothing against Nicklas Grossmann. Because anybody who blocks pucks flying at 60 mph and above doesn't deserve disrespect.

My contention is this, and has always been this: The Flyers are a flawed team. But they really are better than they look, at times, and if they get into the playoffs, they could be extremely dangerous.

My question is this: At what point should player loyalty take a back seat to the greater interests of the team? Just as you shouldn't discard Grossmann simply because of a few bad games, maybe even a few bad weeks...those numbers, for the season, are...they're approaching horrific.

The Flyers will need every win they can get, if making the playoffs is the goal. Their margin for error, I think everyone would agree, is smaller than any of us would like.
- AllInForFlyers

Grossmann doesn't necessarily have to go... and he's certainly not a bad player. He's just not a guy I'd want out there against Malkin/Crosby in extended exposure.

Same with Mark Streit... he's perfectly capable of doing certain things well, but he has limitations that can be exposed in matchups.

As a semi-sheltered third-pairing, they could probably be bigger assets -- albeit a tragically over-paid third-pairing.

This right here, to me, proves that this whole advanced stats thing is overblown malarky by a bunch of people who like to tout how smart they are at understanding the deep intricacies of hockey by the use of smoke and mirrors viewed in a vacuum.

Oh, and, um, Grossmann's the worst Flyers defenseman of all time and should be playing in a beer league.
- jmatchett383

Too bad one of the best coaches in the league believes in the value of analytics:

Every 10 games, Coyotes coach Dave Tippett posts a report card on the wall. Players circle like hawks, eager to learn their score, where they stand.

These are not ordinary statistics. These are player-efficiency ratings, the evolution of a system born in Tippett's brain more than 15 years ago, a quantifiable look at how every member of the Coyotes spends his ice time.

"What we've done is put a value on everything that happens in a game, from goal scoring to assists to fights to shots and shots blocked," Tippett said. "And then we break that down per minute played."

And that's why players are so interested. You can't expect more ice time if you don't have the numbers to back it up.

"Look, hockey is a game of feel and emotion and passion, and there are things that players bring to the ice that can't be put into stats," Tippett said. "This is just another tool. It's continuing to find ways to improve. It's the evolution of the game."

...

Yet Tippett's rating system and treasure trove of data has helped close the competitive gap. It makes him look at hockey players differently. When he's watching tape or scouting opponents on television, he does so with the sound muted, so he's not exposed to conventional hockey wisdom.

"Sometimes, when I watch games at home (as a fan), I'll chuckle at some of the things being said about the players," he said.

His approach changed in the mid-1990s, when he served as head coach and general manager in the IHL, when he had to justify his payroll decisions. He was searching for a new way to evaluate the game, to understand "exactly what was happening on the ice."

"I'll give you an example," he said. "We had a player that was supposed to be a great, shut-down defenseman. He was supposedly the be-all, end-all of defensemen. But when you did a 10-game analysis of him, you found out he was defending all the time because he can't move the puck.

"Then we had another guy, who supposedly couldn't defend a lick. Well, he was defending only 20 percent of the time because he's making good plays out of our end. He may not be the strongest defender, but he's only doing it 20 percent of the time. So the equation works out better the other way. I ended up trading the other defenseman."

Sums up to Grossmann conundrum precisely, I would say.

Grossmann doesn't necessarily have to go... and he's certainly not a bad player. He's just not a guy I'd want out there against Malkin/Crosby in extended exposure.

Same with Mark Streit... he's perfectly capable of doing certain things well, but he has limitations that can be exposed in matchups.

As a semi-sheltered third-pairing, they could probably be bigger assets -- albeit a tragically over-paid third-pairing.
- Tomahawk

Exactly -- and I've been completely honest in saying that I have no idea how the Flyers get Grossmann/Streit to a third pairing, because that would obviously mean they somehow got a Top 4 defenseman in a league where they're just not moving very much.

I don't know how you do it.

Too bad one of the best coaches in the league believes in the value of analytics:




Sums up to Grossmann conundrum precisely, I would say.
- Tomahawk

A lot of people believed for centuries that the Earth was flat and the center of the universe, too.

I prefer to use my eyes and brain instead of data in a vacuum.

Just getting it out of the zone is considered a "success" by their count... Grossmann is only 66% capable of doing that.

Now, if you want to talk about retaining possession on zone-exit (like a tape-to-tape outlet, or an indirect play to an open guy), Grossmann is in the 30% range.

Luke Schenn is no puck-mover, but he's better at zone-exits than Grossmann. Hal Gill is no puck-mover, but he's better than Grossmann. Isn't that significant, considering that Grossmann's in the top-4?




They also reached the conclusion that Matt Hunwick was a "dominant" player once... but that doesn't mean the numbers always lie. If the metrics jive with eyeball observations, then it's good enough for me.
- Tomahawk

Well at least you watch the games.

I read one of those advanced stat guys on that site say once that Jake Voracek had a terrific game based on the stats alone. He didn't even watch the game.
It happened to be one of Jakes worst games of the season. All peripheral play, costly turnovers, etc.

Based on the stats alone he was "great".
And the poster was 100% sincere and confident in this opinion,
Without even watching the game!

So I take what these guys write with a big grain of salt.
Stats without actually watching the play, are being used to judge these players.
Which is utterly ridiculous.

Sums up to Grossmann conundrum precisely, I would say.
- Tomahawk

Yeah. I can see this is heading into "HB Street Fight" territory, though, and since I don't want to do that, I'll just move on from this topic.

A lot of people believed for centuries that the Earth was flat and the center of the universe, too.

I prefer to use my eyes and brain instead of data in a vacuum.
- jmatchett383

Apparently nobody at BSH watches any Flyers games.

edit: (or at least they don't have brains or eyeballs)

Apparently nobody at BSH watches any Flyers games.
- Tomahawk

I don't know if they do, as I don't hang out with them.

Grossmann has played 105 games as a Flyer. Danny Markov played only 34. Using this statistic, Nicklas Grossmann is 3 times more valuable than Markov.

Ugh, I hate late Bill articles.... Bet it has to do with Cali writers not getting up and giving him the Ducks take... Lazy smot poking Cali writers....

I don't know if they do, as I don't hang out with them.
- jmatchett383

The main guys are credentialed and they go to the games, but maybe they just sit with their backs turned, poring over spreadsheets, sipping on non-alcoholic beer, ignoring everything on the ice.

Well at least you watch the games.

I read one of those advanced stat guys on that site say once that Jake Voracek had a terrific game based on the stats alone. He didn't even watch the game.
It happened to be one of Jakes worst games of the season. All peripheral play, costly turnovers, etc.

Based on the stats alone he was "great".
And the poster was 100% sincere and confident in this opinion,
Without even watching the game!

So I take what these guys write with a big grain of salt.
Stats without actually watching the play, are being used to judge these players.
Which is utterly ridiculous.
- Marc D

I will say this though: I'm not one of those guys who...doesn't watch the games. I don't track zone exits, I don't track zone clears. I don't track zone entrances, with and without the puck, on a daily basis. I don't track possession numbers.

But I know exactly what they are. And because of that, I do watch the games differently.

Is Nicklas Grossmann the worst defenseman in the NHL? Is he the worst player of all time? Of course not. There are things he does well, and he has value.

But in this case, all that article did was confirm what some people had been seeing all year -- that Grossmann has been struggling far more often, and far more deeply, than a casual observer might have noticed.

It doesn't have to be either/or. Watching the games and understanding what the statistics indicates is better, IMO. There doesn't have to be a vacuum.

The main guys are credentialed and they go to the games, but maybe they just sit with their backs turned, poring over spreadsheets, sipping on non-alcoholic beer, ignoring everything on the ice.
- Tomahawk

I don't know if they go to the games, but from following those guys on Twitter, they're clearly watching them. That much, I do know.

The main guys are credentialed and they go to the games, but maybe they just sit with their backs turned, poring over spreadsheets, sipping on non-alcoholic beer, ignoring everything on the ice.
- Tomahawk

Given the amount of time they using entering and analyzing data, it wouldn't surprise me.

My point is, the mass amount of "advanced statistics" poring out over the last handful of years just seems like an exercise to see the best way to prove whatever point you want, and if you analyze enough data, you'll find what you need.

They're like these horrible baseball stats, "Past the 7th inning of night games against non-division teams against right-handers, he is actually 17th in batting amongst players under 6'2" who have played 7 or more years in the league who bat right-handed but throw left."

I don't know if they go to the games, but from following those guys on Twitter, they're clearly watching them. That much, I do know.
- AllInForFlyers

I just don't get why people appear so threatened by the numbers... you'd think people would be excited about having more stats to argue over.

Yeah. I can see this is heading into "HB Street Fight" territory, though, and since I don't want to do that, I'll just move on from this topic.
- AllInForFlyers

Well it's a very interesting and important topic for the Flyers.

My opinion is the sum of the parts make both players worse in regards to the #8 and #32 pairing on D.

And how they are used.

Streit is getting a fair amount of defensive zone starts and PK time.
Is that a recipe for winning?

Streit also is given free reign to join the rush on attack more and more. And the forwards aren't being as diligent hanging back to cover for him, leading to odd man rushes wick Grossmann chasing the play. Another good way to lose games.

The pairing is a disaster and makes both players look worse.

You could minimize their exposure to the opponents top players as a third pair, but even that won't work on away games when they don't have last change.
So I know Berube has to play with the deck he was dealt.
But sticking with this pairing is bordering on insane.

I prefer to use my eyes and brain instead of data in a vacuum.
- jmatchett383

Seems that Tippett uses both data and intangibles.

They're like these horrible baseball stats, "Past the 7th inning of night games against non-division teams against right-handers, he is actually 17th in batting amongst players under 6'2" who have played 7 or more years in the league who bat right-handed but throw left."
- jmatchett383

But I have no doubt that (even though you are joking) there is some baseball nerd out there who can give you the 20 players on that list.

I will say this though: I'm not one of those guys who...doesn't watch the games. I don't track zone exits, I don't track zone clears. I don't track zone entrances, with and without the puck, on a daily basis. I don't track possession numbers.

But I know exactly what they are. And because of that, I do watch the games differently.

Is Nicklas Grossmann the worst defenseman in the NHL? Is he the worst player of all time? Of course not. There are things he does well, and he has value.

But in this case, all that article did was confirm what some people had been seeing all year -- that Grossmann has been struggling far more often, and far more deeply, than a casual observer might have noticed.

It doesn't have to be either/or. Watching the games and understanding what the statistics indicates is better, IMO. There doesn't have to be a vacuum.
- AllInForFlyers

Agree.
I'm just pointing out that there are folks, hopefully in the tiny minority, who actually will write an opinion based on stats alone, and believe it without actually watching.
Which is laughable.

I have respect for the stats in context.

The Tippett quote was a great example.

I just don't get why people appear so threatened by the numbers... you'd think people would be excited about having more stats to argue over.
- Tomahawk

It reminds me of Frank Thomas' early career with the White Sox, when he started posting massive amounts of walks.

There were some guys who thought that was selfish, that a guy in the middle of the lineup should "swing the freaking bat."

Thomas, now a first-ballot Hall of Famer, revolutionized how a generation came to understand...on-base percentage, and its collation to winning baseball. And how walks were every bit as valuable as hits, in extending innings and pitchers.

Hockey...isn't at that point yet. But it will be. One day, fans will universally embrace the fact that a player able to enter and exit a zone with the puck is...well, far more valuable than a player who is sincerely limited in that regard.

It's just going to take time.

Given the amount of time they using entering and analyzing data, it wouldn't surprise me.

My point is, the mass amount of "advanced statistics" poring out over the last handful of years just seems like an exercise to see the best way to prove whatever point you want, and if you analyze enough data, you'll find what you need.

They're like these horrible baseball stats, "Past the 7th inning of night games against non-division teams against right-handers, he is actually 17th in batting amongst players under 6'2" who have played 7 or more years in the league who bat right-handed but throw left."
- jmatchett383

I think the advanced hockey stats are more comparable to those baseball stats with abbreviations for names (like WAR, OPS and WHIP) than the situation contextual stats (which are more the stuff of broadcast filler). I don't understand them in either sport, but I think there can be more to them than just finding a number that supports what you already believe.

But really, I just agree with those saying advanced stats geeks aren't just crunching numbers without watching the games. I wouldn't think anybody would care that much to compile stats and write about them for a sport they don't even watch/like.

Far too many people make advanced stats the end all, be all.

Sure Carle's Corsi and other possession numbers were similar to Suter's. But that's only part of the story. Both advanced stat advocates & those who disagree with their value put way to much into Corsi...there's no magic bullet in terms of stats.

You have to look at all the numbers to truly evaluate a guy.

Unfortunately for Grossmann, he fails both the numbers and eyeball test. He's a limited guy who has issues moving the puck.

Just getting it out of the zone is considered a "success" by their count... Grossmann is only 66% capable of doing that.

Now, if you want to talk about retaining possession on zone-exit (like a tape-to-tape outlet, or an indirect play to an open guy), Grossmann is in the 30% range.

Luke Schenn is no puck-mover, but he's better at zone-exits than Grossmann. Hal Gill is no puck-mover, but he's better than Grossmann. Isn't that significant, considering that Grossmann's in the top-4?

- Tomahawk

What about times when Grossmann passes to his D partner (who in most every case should be the preferred puck mover) or to a foward (in the d zone)...is this counted as a positive for Grossmann in those stats? If they're just focusing on when he's given limited options and the defensive d man is forced to try and move it out on his own, I'm not surprised he's not that great at it.

The outdoor games are definitely losing their appeal. And there's just no way in hell I'd have shelled out the cash to sit in the (quite literally) freezing cold while being so far away from the rink you'd be lucky to be able to see the puck.

If I have to watch the jumbotron to see the game, why am I not at home watching it on TV instead, because I like paying for parking, over-priced beer and waiting in line to piss?
- wolfhounds

Clearly not a football fan.

Too cold for me, but I have a friend who was there last night and she had a fabulous time. For the people who are there, it IS an event and I hear (from the fans who were at the classic here) a lot of fun.

I'd rather have a few of these than the all star game. As long as the Classic is the big deal on 1/1, they can have regional ones. Their idea was that there were teams who'd never have a classic, but deserved a chance for an outdoor game. (And NY deserves a classic, but Yankee stadium is contractually obligated to college football for the foreseeable future on 1/1).

Far too many people make advanced stats the end all, be all.

Sure Carle's Corsi and other possession numbers were similar to Suter's. But that's only part of the story. Both advanced stat advocates & those who disagree with their value put way to much into Corsi...there's no magic bullet in terms of stats.

You have to look at all the numbers to truly evaluate a guy.

Unfortunately for Grossmann, he fails both the numbers and eyeball test. He's a limited guy who has issues moving the puck.
- Jsaquella

I can agree with most of this...but there are times when Grossmann looks good out there (eye test)...his recent slumping play notwithstanding...and again, I think there are times when he moves the puck adequately...but I think he's often put into situations where he's forced to try and do things beyond his abilities in that area and that shows up in those poor zone exit stats.

Hockey...isn't at that point yet. But it will be. One day, fans will universally embrace the fact that a player able to enter and exit a zone with the puck is...well, far more valuable than a player who is sincerely limited in that regard.

It's just going to take time.
- AllInForFlyers

Fans, meh.

What really keeps me up at night is that these kinds of things won't be on the Flyers' radar until the rest of the league has already surged far ahead of them.

You already know guys like Ray Shero and Stan Bowman and Tippett are looking at the game non-traditionally... it's OK to fall behind guys ahead of the curve, but it's not OK to fall behind the curve.