I hate posting in old forums... it feels like wearing yesterdays underwear...

A lot of people believed for centuries that the Earth was flat and the center of the universe, too.

I prefer to use my eyes and brain instead of data in a vacuum.
- jmatchett383

I think it likely that a combination of eyes and experience with brain and data would be a more ideal model.

I hate posting in old forums... it feels like wearing yesterdays underwear...
- youarewrong

And yet you do it. Stinky.

What about times when Grossmann passes to his D partner (who in most every case should be the preferred puck mover) or to a foward (in the d zone)...is this counted as a positive for Grossmann in those stats? If they're just focusing on when he's given limited options and the defensive d man is forced to try and move it out on his own, I'm not surprised he's not that great at it.
- exlund

Those scenarios are not unique to Grossmann, though.

You could argue the zone-exit numbers might not fully reflect a guy's usefulness in the team getting the puck out of the zone, but what you can't argue is that the current numbers are specifically geared to punish Grossmann alone.

Sums up to Grossmann conundrum precisely, I would say.
- Tomahawk

Maybe parts of Grossmann's game also fall under this Tippett quote:

"Look, hockey is a game of feel and emotion and passion, and there are things that players bring to the ice that can't be put into stats," Tippett said.

Fans, meh.

What really keeps me up at night is that these kinds of things won't be on the Flyers' radar until the rest of the league has already surged far ahead of them.

You already know guys like Ray Shero and Stan Bowman and Tippett are looking at the game non-traditionally... it's OK to fall behind guys ahead of the curve, but it's not OK to fall behind the curve.
- Tomahawk

Philadelphia franchises are always the last to adjust to the curve. The Sixers are the only ones who use advanced statistics quite frequently.

I minored in Statistics in college. You can use them to form any argument you want. It's all about how you formulate the data. That's why every presidential debate has each opponent blabbering about numbers and what the country's voters want.

Analyzing Grossmann for half of a season is not an accurate reading. The people who did the numbers know this too. They may have gone back to last season and realized they weren't going to get the answer they hoped.

You also need to take into account Grossmann having the worst month of his career. If you take January out, his numbers aren't that bad. Only time will tell whether January is the beginning of a decline or just an outlier.

And yet you do it. Stinky.
- bodiva88

If they arent crusty, then your good to go...

Fans, meh.

What really keeps me up at night is that these kinds of things won't be on the Flyers' radar until the rest of the league has already surged far ahead of them.

You already know guys like Ray Shero and Stan Bowman and Tippett are looking at the game non-traditionally... it's OK to fall behind guys ahead of the curve, but it's not OK to fall behind the curve.
- Tomahawk

Well...there are days when I think they are tracking this stuff, at least informally, and then there are days when I think they aren't.

I sleep better when I think that they are.

Clearly not a football fan.

Too cold for me, but I have a friend who was there last night and she had a fabulous time. For the people who are there, it IS an event and I hear (from the fans who were at the classic here) a lot of fun.

I'd rather have a few of these than the all star game. As long as the Classic is the big deal on 1/1, they can have regional ones. Their idea was that there were teams who'd never have a classic, but deserved a chance for an outdoor game. (And NY deserves a classic, but Yankee stadium is contractually obligated to college football for the foreseeable future on 1/1).
- bodiva88

I agree, but as long as they make money they are here to stay. Based on attendance figures at the games this year, I'd guess they are making plenty of dough.

I've watched all of them this year and enjoyed them all. I do like the night games better than the day games, though. I think they show better on television.

Those scenarios are not unique to Grossmann, though.

You could argue the zone-exit numbers might not fully reflect a guy's usefulness in the team getting the puck out of the zone, but what you can't argue is that the current numbers are specifically geared to punish Grossmann alone.
- Tomahawk

Well, when you have a guy with his type of game, probably moreso than any other type of player, you need support from the forwards (and d partner) to make up for his deficiencies (puck moving skill etc.)...Grossmann bangs bodies and takes guys off pucks along the wall and often has little to no support coming into help retrieve those pucks and get it out...when he does try to do it all himself, he struggles...maybe what we're seeing in these numbers reflects that lack of support moreso than how bad Grossmann is at his game.

Maybe parts of Grossmann's game also fall under this Tippett quote:

"Look, hockey is a game of feel and emotion and passion, and there are things that players bring to the ice that can't be put into stats," Tippett said.
- exlund

That could be so.

Tippett is also famous for keeping BizNasty around purely for energy:

The pack is tired. Two nights ago, the Coyotes returned home from a game in Denver at 1 a.m. and played that evening, losing to Nashville in a near-empty arena. (Wendy often walks the stands dispensing free Coyotes gear.) The team needs a spark. After the talk, Tippett pulls aside a winger named Paul "Biss" Bissonnette -- the Coyotes' gregarious enforcer, a brawler on the ice, arranger of locker room music off it -- and says, "You're not going."

Biss will be a healthy scratch so that Tippett can dress a faster player. Biss nods, but Tippett isn't done. Tippett asks Biss to do something that he's never asked before: He wants Biss to pretend to play. The team needs Biss' energy, so Tippett asks him to practice as if he's playing, dress as if he's playing, arrange the pregame music as if he's playing, skate during warmups as if he's playing -- and then stay behind come faceoff.

Biss looks down. On another team, he might complain. Not in Phoenix. Biss and his teammates respect Tippett not just because he played but because his do-anything-it-takes style would have fit the Coyotes perfectly. He would have sat for the team. Tippett knew he was lucky to have an NHL career, and now Biss reminds himself that minor league goons would kill to have a chance at the bigs. Biss nods again, and Tippett follows him onto the ice, an invisible victory secured.

That's a guy who gets the balance between analytics and the traditional fabric of the game.

It's a great article btw: http://espn.go.com/nhl/st...-hard-times-espn-magazine

I think it likely that a combination of eyes and experience with brain and data would be a more ideal model.
- bodiva88

They did use eyes and brains and built an ideal model. Literally, an ideal (perfect circle) model. Based on years and years of observational data and observing the cosmos with their eyes. They hypothesized, and found that their hypothesis on the universe could be explained almost perfectly using all of the data available coupled with what they saw.

Unfortunately, they were dead wrong.

You also need to take into account Grossmann having the worst month of his career. If you take January out, his numbers aren't that bad. Only time will tell whether January is the beginning of a decline or just an outlier.
- PhillySportsGuy

That was my point earlier: You don't want to act too soon, but you also pay a price by acting too late.

I've never argued, and won't argue, that whatever decisions that get made are easy.

But I'd hate to see Grossmann continue to play like this, the Flyers not address it, and it becomes one of the factors -- not the only one -- that possibly costs them a playoff spot.

Well, when you have a guy with his type of game, probably moreso than any other type of player, you need support from the forwards (and d partner) to make up for his deficiencies (puck moving skill etc.)...Grossmann bangs bodies and takes guys off pucks along the wall and often has little to no support coming into help retrieve those pucks and get it out...when he does try to do it all himself, he struggles...maybe what we're seeing in these numbers reflects that lack of support moreso than how bad Grossmann is at his game.
- exlund

Look, I am a Grossmann supporter, but the numbers show he's having a bad year. They don't show he's a bad player though.

He could be injured, aging, lack confidence or maybe he just isn't as good as we all thought.

One day, fans will universally embrace the fact that a player able to enter and exit a zone with the puck is...well, far more valuable than a player who is sincerely limited in that regard.
- AllInForFlyers

Wait wait wait...you're telling me that, one day, people will think that Bobby Orr is better than Grossmann? I don't think so.

I'm not even sure what's being argued. That Grossmann has perfomed poorly over the last month or even half year? Okay, he has. Most players do. Are we arguing that he's not renowned for his puck moving ability? SHOCKING! Is it that he's not fast? Again, that's unbelievable insight.

He is what he is: a defensive defenseman who struggles in the transition game when he doesn't have adeqaute support, who happens to be having the worst season of his otherwise steady career. I'm not sure what is trying to be proven here.

That was my point earlier: You don't want to act too soon, but you also pay a price by acting too late.

I've never argued, and won't argue, that whatever decisions that get made are easy.

But I'd hate to see Grossmann continue to play like this, the Flyers not address it, and it becomes one of the factors -- not the only one -- that possibly costs them a playoff spot.
- AllInForFlyers

Analytics are difficult to use in any sport outside of baseball because they are all team games. Even in baseball, they aren't accurate a lot of the time. (Analytics had the Phillies only winning one division title during their run. They won 5).

Let's just trade Grossmann for picks and dress Meszaros or Hal Gill full time. Problem solved!

Look, I am a Grossmann supporter, but the numbers show he's having a bad year. They don't show he's a bad player though.

He could be injured, aging, lack confidence or maybe he just isn't as good as we all thought.
- PhillySportsGuy

I like Grossmann. I wouldnt want to trade him. When he is on his game, he is the kind of guy that goes out there, blocks shots, and just plays an overall sound game.

I think this whole team needs to be restructured, but a player like Grossmann is someone that you keep, even if its as a 3rd pairing guy that is paired with a rookie d-man in limited minutes.

Wait wait wait...you're telling me that, one day, people will think that Bobby Orr is better than Grossmann? I don't think so.

I'm not even sure what's being argued. That Grossmann has perfomed poorly over the last month or even half year? Okay, he has. Most players do. Are we arguing that he's not renowned for his puck moving ability? SHOCKING! Is it that he's not fast? Again, that's unbelievable insight.

He is what he is: a defensive defenseman who struggles in the transition game when he doesn't have adeqaute support, who happens to be having the worst season of his otherwise steady career. I'm not sure what is trying to be proven here.
- jmatchett383

Well, I think it's being argued, in the article, that the Flyers defense has been hampered by Nicklas Grossmann's play.

Hence the title of the article: "The Nicklas Grossmann Problem."

Again, whether you choose to believe it or not, your own mileage may vary.

Wait wait wait...you're telling me that, one day, people will think that Bobby Orr is better than Grossmann? I don't think so.
- jmatchett383

The more useful realization may be that a guy like Gus might be a better fit than Grossmann in the top-4, or a guy like Kris Russell that was on waivers, or a guy like Tom Gilbert... you take one look at Grossmann with his huge frame, gaudy blocked shots and hits numbers, limited turnovers, and you assume he's going to help you win more than those other guys.

The realization is: not necessarily.

Wait wait wait...you're telling me that, one day, people will think that Bobby Orr is better than Grossmann? I don't think so.

I'm not even sure what's being argued. That Grossmann has perfomed poorly over the last month or even half year? Okay, he has. Most players do. Are we arguing that he's not renowned for his puck moving ability? SHOCKING! Is it that he's not fast? Again, that's unbelievable insight.

He is what he is: a defensive defenseman who struggles in the transition game when he doesn't have adeqaute support, who happens to be having the worst season of his otherwise steady career. I'm not sure what is trying to be proven here.
- jmatchett383

Has anyone considered that the reason this team doesn't have great forward-gap support is because our forwards aren't exactly speedsters? Other then Matt Read, who has Jets... pure acceleration... on this team?

Analytics are difficult to use in any sport outside of baseball because they are all team games. Even in baseball, they aren't accurate a lot of the time. (Analytics had the Phillies only winning one division title during their run. They won 5).
- PhillySportsGuy

The bigger problem is that people tend to think way to highly of analytics. I have been hearing how the Oilers have been using an analytics guy for a few years. Yet... they are looking at their 4th straight top pick overall with a little help from the Sabres.

You can spout off corsi and fenwick till you are blue in the face, but that doesnt show 1/3rd of the actual picture.

Now, as an means of helping in the evaluation.. it should be included. Its just not the word of god some believe it to be.

The more useful realization may be that a guy like Gus might be a better fit than Grossmann in the top-4, or a guy like Kris Russell that was on waivers, or a guy like Tom Gilbert... you take one look at Grossmann with his huge frame, gaudy blocked shots and hits numbers, limited turnovers, and you assume he's going to help you win more than those other guys.

The realization is: not necessarily.
- Tomahawk

Agreed. Hits and blocked shots are not helpful in a team..

(frank) it, I'm done with this. You can all go to hell.

Clearly not a football fan.

Too cold for me, but I have a friend who was there last night and she had a fabulous time. For the people who are there, it IS an event and I hear (from the fans who were at the classic here) a lot of fun.

I'd rather have a few of these than the all star game. As long as the Classic is the big deal on 1/1, they can have regional ones. Their idea was that there were teams who'd never have a classic, but deserved a chance for an outdoor game. (And NY deserves a classic, but Yankee stadium is contractually obligated to college football for the foreseeable future on 1/1).
- bodiva88

Yeah, not much of a football fan. And I don't doubt it would be fun if you were there and bundled up and hanging with your friends and a stadium full of people sharing this unique experience, I guess I'm just a little bored of the event because there have already been so many this season. And the ice looked pretty bad, slow and choppy... So I got a little salty about the whole thing last night.

The more useful realization may be that a guy like Gus might be a better fit than Grossmann in the top-4, or a guy like Kris Russell that was on waivers, or a guy like Tom Gilbert... you take one look at Grossmann with his huge frame, gaudy blocked shots and hits numbers, limited turnovers, and you assume he's going to help you win more than those other guys.

The realization is: not necessarily.
- Tomahawk

And when you have a goalie that is facing 45-50 shots a night instead of 35, are you going to task Gus to go out there and knock some people over and lay down in front of the puck?