The more useful realization may be that a guy like Gus might be a better fit than Grossmann in the top-4, or a guy like Kris Russell that was on waivers, or a guy like Tom Gilbert... you take one look at Grossmann with his huge frame, gaudy blocked shots and hits numbers, limited turnovers, and you assume he's going to help you win more than those other guys.

The realization is: not necessarily.
- Tomahawk

There's always this misconception about size/speed.

I do care that Grossmann is slow. It does matter in today's game.

But what matters more is that Grossmann's puck skills, in addition to his speed, are...less than stellar.

You can be slow. Larry Murphy was painfully, painfully slow. But you can fake it, sometimes, if you can move the puck well, pass accurately.

Has anyone considered that the reason this team doesn't have great forward-gap support is because our forwards aren't exactly speedsters? Other then Matt Read, who has Jets... pure acceleration... on this team?
- youarewrong

Jake is pretty fast. And Raffl. And Simmonds. But I think the fastest forward is Rino.

Agreed. Hits and blocked shots are not helpful in a team..

(frank) it, I'm done with this. You can all go to hell.
- jmatchett383

breathe my man.

The point is, if Grossmann is constantly in situations where he has to block shots or throw hits.. its likely because our team is without the puck or are fighting for the puck. Advanced stats would state that because he does that.. it is a bad thing for the team because we cant produce offense. What they dont show is that he is also preventing other teams from offense.

The moral? Yes, we spend way too much time in our zone when Grossmann is out there, but he is also a very good (not so much this month or parts of the year) defensive d-man. When he is on the top of his game.. he will stall offensive chances for the other team. When he is playing bad.. he creates offensive chances for the other team. He simply is not a guy that will create offensive situations for our team. Unfortunately, not all d-men are Kris Letang or AP

And when you have a goalie that is facing 45-50 shots a night instead of 35, are you going to task Gus to go out there and knock some people over and lay down in front of the puck?
- youarewrong

If Gus gets you out of the zone more efficiently, maybe you don't see as many shots against, or have to block as many shots, or have to rub guys out along the wall... Grossmann not being able to exit the zone efficiently probably creates more shot attempts against... it's a different way of looking at the game and challenges some old assumptions.

Has anyone considered that the reason this team doesn't have great forward-gap support is because our forwards aren't exactly speedsters? Other then Matt Read, who has Jets... pure acceleration... on this team?
- youarewrong

No one. That's why Berube is so adamant about the team skating and not becoming stationary

The bigger problem is that people tend to think way to highly of analytics. I have been hearing how the Oilers have been using an analytics guy for a few years. Yet... they are looking at their 4th straight top pick overall with a little help from the Sabres.

You can spout off corsi and fenwick till you are blue in the face, but that doesnt show 1/3rd of the actual picture.

Now, as an means of helping in the evaluation.. it should be included. Its just not the word of god some believe it to be.
- jak521

Exactly. As good as they can be, they cannot take into account everything.

Jake is pretty fast. And Raffl. And Simmonds. But I think the fastest forward is Rino.
- wolfhounds

I dont think Raffl is fast, but faster then he looks. Simmonds is not fast on acceleration... He isnt going to chase most speedy forwards down. Rinaldo is fast, but he is a 4th line player. I mean look at what you have...
Giroux left off team Canada because of speed.
Voracek... maybe fast for his size, but is no speedester.
Hartnell.... SLOW
B.Schenn...SLOW
Vinny.... SLOW
Simmonds.... can get momentum, but not "fast"
Couturier.... SLOW
Read... About the only impact forward that could compete in an NHL fastest skater compitiion.
Downie... He has some speed.
Hall.... SLOW
Raffl... Moderate.
Rinaldo... Also fast, but very little impact on the team.

The fact remains.... for the most part, these guys are not a fast skating team.

If Gus gets you out of the zone more efficiently, maybe you don't see as many shots against, or have to block as many shots, or have to rub guys out along the wall... Grossmann not being able to exit the zone efficiently probably creates more shot attempts against... it's a different way of looking at the game and challenges some old assumptions.
- Tomahawk

Part of the problem is our forwards are quite bad at getting the puck out of the zone as well, at least during this last losing streak. There's nothing more frustrating than watching our forwards along the boards turn the puck over again and again.

If Gus gets you out of the zone more efficiently, maybe you don't see as many shots against, or have to block as many shots, or have to rub guys out along the wall... Grossmann not being able to exit the zone efficiently probably creates more shot attempts against... it's a different way of looking at the game.
- Tomahawk

Ok.. so this is where I think advanced stats tell a part but not the whole story.

Yes, the advanced stats would indicate that we would see less defensive zone time with a puck mover who can transition offense than a slower purely defensive d-man. But what it doesnt necessarily show is the quality of chances against while Gus is out as opposed to Grossmann. It shows quantity not quality.

Gus may limit the opposition to 5 shots against while generating 12 shots for, but the 5 shots against could all be prime scoring chances, 3 of which end in the back of the net. His 12 shots on net while he is out there could all be from the perimeter and none go in.

Grossmann could be out for 12 shots against and blocks 6 and keeps the other 6 to the perimeter (something he tends to do well), and the 5 shots generated (by forwards mind you) could be great scoring chances and end up in the net.

Meterics only give you part of the equation.

I dont think Raffl is fast, but faster then he looks. Simmonds is not fast on acceleration... He isnt going to chase most speedy forwards down. Rinaldo is fast, but he is a 4th line player. I mean look at what you have...
Giroux left off team Canada because of speed.
Voracek... maybe fast for his size, but is no speedester.
Hartnell.... SLOW
B.Schenn...SLOW
Vinny.... SLOW
Simmonds.... can get momentum, but not "fast"
Couturier.... SLOW
Read... About the only impact forward that could compete in an NHL fastest skater compitiion.
Downie... He has some speed.
Hall.... SLOW
Raffl... Moderate.
Rinaldo... Also fast, but very little impact on the team.

The fact remains.... for the most part, these guys are not a fast skating team.
- youarewrong

youarewrong

If Gus gets you out of the zone more efficiently, maybe you don't see as many shots against, or have to block as many shots, or have to rub guys out along the wall... Grossmann not being able to exit the zone efficiently probably creates more shot attempts against... it's a different way of looking at the game and challenges some old assumptions.
- Tomahawk

Yea, or you could look at it as, without guys like Gross, then the other team will have an easier entry and direct shot on net. Your thinking only of what happens AFTER the defense recovers the puck. I'm thinking about what happens before there is a scoring chance.

In reality you need both kind of guys on your team. Best if both kind of players on the same pairing. One guy that is going to take the body, and block the shot, the other to move the puck up the ice.

Ok.. so this is where I think advanced stats tell a part but not the whole story.

Yes, the advanced stats would indicate that we would see less defensive zone time with a puck mover who can transition offense than a slower purely defensive d-man. But what it doesnt necessarily show is the quality of chances against while Gus is out as opposed to Grossmann. It shows quantity not quality.

Gus may limit the opposition to 5 shots against while generating 12 shots for, but the 5 shots against could all be prime scoring chances, 3 of which end in the back of the net. His 12 shots on net while he is out there could all be from the perimeter and none go in.

Grossmann could be out for 12 shots against and blocks 6 and keeps the other 6 to the perimeter (something he tends to do well), and the 5 shots generated (by forwards mind you) could be great scoring chances and end up in the net.

Meterics only give you part of the equation.
- jak521

Here's the point, though: If you're getting strafed with one lineup, when do you make a change?

The point of the article was that Grossmann's numbers were worse than Meszaros', but Meszaros was the one who got benched.

It had nothing to do with Gus, who missed, what, 16 straight games?

I dont think Raffl is fast, but faster then he looks. Simmonds is not fast on acceleration... He isnt going to chase most speedy forwards down. Rinaldo is fast, but he is a 4th line player. I mean look at what you have...
Giroux left off team Canada because of speed.
Voracek... maybe fast for his size, but is no speedester.
Hartnell.... SLOW
B.Schenn...SLOW
Vinny.... SLOW
Simmonds.... can get momentum, but not "fast"
Couturier.... SLOW
Read... About the only impact forward that could compete in an NHL fastest skater compitiion.
Downie... He has some speed.
Hall.... SLOW
Raffl... Moderate.
Rinaldo... Also fast, but very little impact on the team.

The fact remains.... for the most part, these guys are not a fast skating team.
- youarewrong

Yup. I don't know that we have anybody that's explosive, that can hit speed quickly right out of the gate.

youarewrong
- jak521

Wow, that all you got? You add so much.

Ok.. so this is where I think advanced stats tell a part but not the whole story.

Yes, the advanced stats would indicate that we would see less defensive zone time with a puck mover who can transition offense than a slower purely defensive d-man. But what it doesnt necessarily show is the quality of chances against while Gus is out as opposed to Grossmann. It shows quantity not quality.

Gus may limit the opposition to 5 shots against while generating 12 shots for, but the 5 shots against could all be prime scoring chances, 3 of which end in the back of the net. His 12 shots on net while he is out there could all be from the perimeter and none go in.

Grossmann could be out for 12 shots against and blocks 6 and keeps the other 6 to the perimeter (something he tends to do well), and the 5 shots generated (by forwards mind you) could be great scoring chances and end up in the net.

Meterics only give you part of the equation.
- jak521

ASFAIK, scoring chance quality and shot-distance measures are being heavily looked at right now... this stuff is all in it's infancy, but that doesn't mean it's not already somewhat useful.

Here's the point, though: If you're getting strafed with one lineup, when do you make a change?

The point of the article was that Grossmann's numbers were worse than Meszaros', but Meszaros was the one who got benched.

It had nothing to do with Gus, who missed, what, 16 straight games?
- AllInForFlyers

I think it has more to do with Grossmann being signed for what another 2-3 years, and the team knowing that Meszaros is gone this offseason. The difference in play isnt enough to alienate Grossmann by benching him IMO.

I can agree with most of this...but there are times when Grossmann looks good out there (eye test)...his recent slumping play notwithstanding...and again, I think there are times when he moves the puck adequately...but I think he's often put into situations where he's forced to try and do things beyond his abilities in that area and that shows up in those poor zone exit stats.
- exlund

I feel Grossmann is very poorly used by the Flyers. IMO, he's a limited 5th or 6th guy, mauler type. I'm not a fan of his usage at all.

Wow, that all you got? You add so much.
- youarewrong

Ok.. Ill give you a little more.

Youarecompletelywrong.


Just because a guy isnt Carl Hagelin or Grabner doesnt mean they are "SLOW". Simmonds is a big guy who absolutely has speed. Is he the quickest at accelerating? No, but he has speed. Brayden Schenn has good speed. There really may be only two or three players I would categorize as SLOW.

Grossmann, Hall are definitely in there.

I feel Grossmann is very poorly used by the Flyers. IMO, he's a limited 5th or 6th guy, mauler type. I'm not a fan of his usage at all.
- Jsaquella

Well I'm not sure who you want to give the big minutes too. I agree about Grossmann being a third pairing guy. I just don't see who you would move up. Gus, Streit, Mez and Schenn aren't exactly the most reliable players. You would need to form a 2nd pairing out of that group.

Yea, or you could look at it as, without guys like Gross, then the other team will have an easier entry and direct shot on net. Your thinking only of what happens AFTER the defense recovers the puck. I'm thinking about what happens before there is a scoring chance.

In reality you need both kind of guys on your team. Best if both kind of players on the same pairing. One guy that is going to take the body, and block the shot, the other to move the puck up the ice.
- youarewrong

Or you could do what Chicago has done, and eschew the "specialists" in favor of a group that can all play two ways, block shots, skate, pass and enter/exit zones, even if they're not the most fearsome or big guys.

ASFAIK, scoring chance quality and shot-distance measures are being heavily looked at right now... this stuff is all in it's infancy, but that doesn't mean it's not already somewhat useful.
- Tomahawk

I'll have to see more of that -- I don't know if that will show as much as people might like.

Has anyone considered that the reason this team doesn't have great forward-gap support is because our forwards aren't exactly speedsters? Other then Matt Read, who has Jets... pure acceleration... on this team?
- youarewrong

Thank you!! You jmatch, and a few others seem to be looking at the bigger picture. I don't care what defnseman is out there. If you are hemmed in by two opposing forecheckers, with no puck support from your forwards coming back, you WILL get burned more often than not! It's a TEAM sport more than any other. If you don't have the speed to catch a break out and are in fear of odd man rushes going the other way, your forwards are reluctant to come to far back to assist. Speed kills!

Btw, your avatar is BOSS!

Ok.. Ill give you a little more.

Youarecompletelywrong.


Just because a guy isnt Carl Hagelin or Grabner doesnt mean they are "SLOW". Simmonds is a big guy who absolutely has speed. Is he the quickest at accelerating? No, but he has speed. Brayden Schenn has good speed. There really may be only two or three players I would categorize as SLOW.

Grossmann, Hall are definitely in there.
- jak521

Speed is overrated. Look at teams like the Kings and Bruins. They succeed without a ton of speed. Its more about creating passing lanes and staying in motion. If your passes are always hitting stationary players, it's going to be hard to exit your own zone and create a scoring chance the other way.

ASFAIK, scoring chance quality and shot-distance measures are being heavily looked at right now... this stuff is all in it's infancy, but that doesn't mean it's not already somewhat useful.
- Tomahawk

I get there is an attempted advanced stat for that kind of stuff, but each chance is of different quality. Some people feel as though getting the puck to the actual net is a quality scoring chance because of the possibility of a rebound...

Look a shot chart after a game if you can find one... A lot of times there are 2,3,4 x the amount of in close (within a few feet of the goal line) shots generated. A lot of those are second third chance shots.. guys trying to ram home a rebound.

Its important to take all of the possible data, store it in your mind.. and then go watch the freakin game. There is a reason games are still played on ice and not on paper.

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