Thank you!! You jmatch, and a few others seem to be looking at the bigger picture. I don't care what defnseman is out there. If you are hemmed in by two opposing forecheckers, with no puck support from your forwards coming back, you WILL get burned more often than not! It's a TEAM sport more than any other. If you don't have the speed to catch a break out and are in fear of odd man rushes going the other way, your forwards are reluctant to come to far back to assist. Speed kills!

Btw, your avatar is BOSS!
- Hokeeguy9

Just want to point one thing out. Its not lack of speed that keeps our guys hemmed in. Its the forwards not even skating back. Again, Hagelin could be on this team, but if he is coasting from o-zone through neutral zone... his speed doesnt matter.

The Oilers are one of the fastest teams in the league from a pure speed perspective. They are also one of the worst teams at 5v5 F/A%

Ok.. Ill give you a little more.

Youarecompletelywrong.


Just because a guy isnt Carl Hagelin or Grabner doesnt mean they are "SLOW". Simmonds is a big guy who absolutely has speed. Is he the quickest at accelerating? No, but he has speed. Brayden Schenn has good speed. There really may be only two or three players I would categorize as SLOW.

Grossmann, Hall are definitely in there.
- jak521

Simmonds is a terrific skater, no idea what people are talking about. Great first step, stable base, beautiful stride. Maybe not the top-end speed of a Read, but he's damned good at getting up and down the ice.

Hartnell is a good skater, too.

Vinny, Downie are slow all around. Baby Schenn and Coots have average speed but have clunky strides.

Ok.. so this is where I think advanced stats tell a part but not the whole story.

Yes, the advanced stats would indicate that we would see less defensive zone time with a puck mover who can transition offense than a slower purely defensive d-man. But what it doesnt necessarily show is the quality of chances against while Gus is out as opposed to Grossmann. It shows quantity not quality.

Gus may limit the opposition to 5 shots against while generating 12 shots for, but the 5 shots against could all be prime scoring chances, 3 of which end in the back of the net. His 12 shots on net while he is out there could all be from the perimeter and none go in.

Grossmann could be out for 12 shots against and blocks 6 and keeps the other 6 to the perimeter (something he tends to do well), and the 5 shots generated (by forwards mind you) could be great scoring chances and end up in the net.

Meterics only give you part of the equation.
- jak521

The last sentence is incredibly true.

Advanced stats only take a deeper look into what normal stats tell us.

They can be a valuable tool. The risk is leaning too heavily on a tool. I use the example of a hammer. You need to fix a wall or door, a hammer is mighty valuable. But if I'm repairing a chipped tea cup, a hammer serves no purpose.

But when you note that a team is getting heavily outshot...that's what Corsi measures. Zone starts measure how a guy is used. WOWY measures how a player performs with & with other players in terms of possession stats.

It's not an end all be all, and those that make it into that are fools.

Generally, I have found that looking at stats after a game, my eyes are generally proven accurate. In fact I usually only look at advanced stats if I notice a guy playing particularly well or particularly bad, or if I'm in a discussion about a guy and prefer not talking out of my ass

Now more than ever, I'm convinced that who you are plays into the narrative of how a player is perceived on this site.

If that article had been titled, "The Mark Streit Problem" or "The Vincent Lecavalier Problem," the floodgates would've been opened.

But because people like Nicklas Grossmann, it's OK. There are various other reasons, all on what other players aren't doing, to explain his play. Not what Grossmann can or can't do. It's always someone else.

Some other players...don't get that benefit of the doubt.

Here's the point, though: If you're getting strafed with one lineup, when do you make a change?

The point of the article was that Grossmann's numbers were worse than Meszaros', but Meszaros was the one who got benched.

It had nothing to do with Gus, who missed, what, 16 straight games?
- AllInForFlyers

With how bad terrible Grossmann has played, I would have let him sit.

Well I'm not sure who you want to give the big minutes too. I agree about Grossmann being a third pairing guy. I just don't see who you would move up. Gus, Streit, Mez and Schenn aren't exactly the most reliable players. You would need to form a 2nd pairing out of that group.
- PhillySportsGuy

this is the problem

Berube would have to play Kimmo and Coburn 30 minutes to reduce the ice time of the rest of the crew.

Which won't work for obvious reasons.

The best solution is to pair Luke with Kimmo.

Grossmann and Coburn or
Grossmann and Gus.

No ideal solution with the current mix unfortunately.

The need for a two way guy to play 25 minutes in all situations, which would make the rest of the group a lot better (especially if the forwards buy in for more then 20 minutes a night) would work wonders.

The last sentence is incredibly true.

Advanced stats only take a deeper look into what normal stats tell us.

They can be a valuable tool. The risk is leaning too heavily on a tool. I use the example of a hammer. You need to fix a wall or door, a hammer is mighty valuable. But if I'm repairing a chipped tea cup, a hammer serves no purpose.

But when you note that a team is getting heavily outshot...that's what Corsi measures. Zone starts measure how a guy is used. WOWY measures how a player performs with & with other players in terms of possession stats.

It's not an end all be all, and those that make it into that are fools.

Generally, I have found that looking at stats after a game, my eyes are generally proven accurate. In fact I usually only look at advanced stats if I notice a guy playing particularly well or particularly bad, or if I'm in a discussion about a guy and prefer not talking out of my ass
- Jsaquella

Bingo.

You cant ignore them, but you cant pretend as though it defines a player. One thing I dont think it take into consideration (although I dont know to be honest) is the quality of your own linemates.

Putting a guy like Downie on a line with Patrice Bergeron is going to inflate Downies numbers. Putting him with Crosby will inflate his numbers. Putting him with Shelley and Rosehill is likely to deflate his numbers.

Well I'm not sure who you want to give the big minutes too. I agree about Grossmann being a third pairing guy. I just don't see who you would move up. Gus, Streit, Mez and Schenn aren't exactly the most reliable players. You would need to form a 2nd pairing out of that group.
- PhillySportsGuy

Not saying they are, just saying that Grossmann is hardly much better, and actually in several areas is worse. Schenn did solidly in bigger minutes last season, and Streit away from Grossmann has actually been a solid possession performer.

It's not to say that Grossmann is worthless, but to hold him up as being a far better option to the others is really not correct in any way

Bingo.

Putting a guy like Downie on a line with Patrice Bergeron is going to inflate Downies numbers. Putting him with Crosby will inflate his numbers. Putting him with Shelley and Rosehill is likely to deflate his numbers.
- jak521

Good point! Insert Grossman into the bruins or the hawks line up, and this conversation is no where near the donnybrook it has become. Face it, this team just doesn't have the chemistry it should. Some players just don't work well with others, and this team as it is assembled is middle of the pack. Let's not indict Grossman while the others escape the harsh scrutiny.

Bingo.

You cant ignore them, but you cant pretend as though it defines a player. One thing I dont think it take into consideration (although I dont know to be honest) is the quality of your own linemates.

Putting a guy like Downie on a line with Patrice Bergeron is going to inflate Downies numbers. Putting him with Crosby will inflate his numbers. Putting him with Shelley and Rosehill is likely to deflate his numbers.
- jak521

That's when you look at WOWY, Corsi REL & Cosi QOC to get a larger picture.

I don't worship at the altar of Corsi, but I do use it and other numbers to give me a better overall look at things

Good point! Insert Grossman into the bruins or the hawks line up, and this conversation is no where near the donnybrook it has become. Face it, this team just doesn't have the chemistry it should. Some players just don't work well with others, and this team as it is assembled is middle of the pack. Let's not indict Grossman while the others escape the harsh scrutiny.
- Hokeeguy9

The problem is, and what the blog stated, was that playing with Grossmann hurt everyone else's possession numbers.

Every player on the team had worse numbers with Grossmann on the ice than without. So while I agreed that use age & line mates play a role, the constant has been lower levels of play across the board when Grossmann has been in ice.

They did use eyes and brains and built an ideal model. Literally, an ideal (perfect circle) model. Based on years and years of observational data and observing the cosmos with their eyes. They hypothesized, and found that their hypothesis on the universe could be explained almost perfectly using all of the data available coupled with what they saw.

Unfortunately, they were dead wrong.
- jmatchett383

Is this some kind of movie trailer script?

this is the problem

Berube would have to play Kimmo and Coburn 30 minutes to reduce the ice time of the rest of the crew.

Which won't work for obvious reasons.

The best solution is to pair Luke with Kimmo.

Grossmann and Coburn or
Grossmann and Gus.

No ideal solution with the current mix unfortunately.

The need for a two way guy to play 25 minutes in all situations, which would make the rest of the group a lot better (especially if the forwards buy in for more then 20 minutes a night) would work wonders.
- Marc D

I'd go 44-22, 5-32 & 8/41-26, personally.

I'd go 44-22, 5-32 & 8/41-26, personally.
- Jsaquella

Yep. What would it hurt, exactly, to try that?

Yep. What would it hurt, exactly, to try that?
- AllInForFlyers

Not a huge fan of any of the combos on the third pair, but 8-32 has been a disaster

I'd go 44-22, 5-32 & 8/41-26, personally.
- Jsaquella

sold

let's do it!