I highly doubt Gagner comes to LA unless one of our centers goes the other way. However, if I play armchair GM for a minute, I could probably make it work.

Richards/Kopitar/Carter
Gagner
Stoll
Fraser

Remember that Richards played on the LW with Carter at C and Toffoli at RW for a while.

I think that trading for Gagner would be stupid, but there's ways to make it work.
- tkecanuck341

I believe the whole point of the rumors and the fact that Fraser was waived is the belief that we're still in the hunt for Gagner or equivalent. If that doesn't happen, then it'll likely be a wing or d-man upgrade.

Fraser hasn't been good at all this year. He's been far more a liability than an asset.

I believe the whole point of the rumors and the fact that Fraser was waived is the belief that we're still in the hunt for Gagner or equivalent. If that doesn't happen, then it'll likely be a wing or d-man upgrade.

Fraser hasn't been good at all this year. He's been far more a liability than an asset.
- Ersberg

If Fraser had such tremendous upside, and everyone knows this about him, then how the hell did he clear waivers and wind up in Manchester? I am glad you kind of see what I saw.

I hope we don't get Gagner either, that would be fail of epic proportions !

Why can't we go after another huge gun like Evander Kane or Gaborik? either one of those guys is worth toffoli and whatever scraps we can bundle with it, or even better bundle up some mid level guys and a pick for one of those 2 !!!


and F.F.S. will someone remind Dustin Brown that he is Dustin Brown? that hit he laid against C-bus just made me miss his playing style more!!

Richards, just like the rest of the team, is in a slump. He has 9 points in the 21 games since the slump began, which is more than everyone on the team except Kopitar, Carter, and Doughty. He plays against the other team's best players, plays both on the PP and PK, and is a leader on this team. He will return to form soon enough.
- tkecanuck341

This.


Richards is having a bad year. It happens to almost every player at one time or another.

It's crazy to think anyone would want to get rid of him. He's a leader and clutch playoff performer.

This.


Richards is having a bad year. It happens to almost every player at one time or another.

It's crazy to think anyone would want to get rid of him. He's a leader and clutch playoff performer.
- Anjin

Just entertain me a bit and watch him closely, check out his passes, watch him on the forecheck and the back check, and also tell me if you don't see a severe drop in speed... I may be a little bat $hit crazy, but what I am seeing is some real weak passing, flubbing and whiffing on the puck 70% of the time and skating that is very slow and lacking any kind of energy...

I see an entirely different player from the cup run...

I am just basing it on what I see on the ice, not so much the stat sheet or the standings... There were a lot of games early in the season that we won that we had no business winning and I considered the team lucky

So yeah I do get a little bent when I don't see any steps being taken to fix the power play, improve the on-ice approach and beefing up the forecheck a bit, getting to good scoring positions, taking care of the puck better, getting out of the zone efficiently, staying out of the box by moving your damn feet as opposed to using the stick to make up for lack of speed. These are all effort and mental aspects that they could fix with the current line up and it's simply not getting done.
that is why I am looking for a shake up. I give a little credibility to the fatigue excuse but at the end of the day these are pro's, all teams will hit a tough patch of the schedule and they should be in shape enough to nut up a little and get through it without dropping 15 of 20 games...

just sayin, and I will strike a deal with you, if the kings back their way out of the play offs you must retract your comments that make me sound crazy, and if they don't I will give you the Zen award !


Good talk, thanks for the banter
- MikeOxbyg

If you want a good metric of how a team is doing, take a look at some of the advanced stats sites. There's three stats in particular to look at:

Corsi Percentage (CF%) - A teams rating percentage of all shot attempts for (on goal, missed, blocked) vs. shot attempts against. It gives a good idea of puck possession.

Fenwick Percentage (FF%)- The same stat as above, blocked shots not included.

PDO - (Shooting % + Save %) * 1000 - Measures "luck". This number trends towards 1000. If a team has a PDO below 1000, it means that they are currently "unlucky" and are probably slumping. Conversely if it is above 1000, it means they are very lucky and their current level of play is probably unsustainable.

http://stats.hockeyanalys...e&sort=FFPCT&sortdir=DESC

The Kings have a Corsi % of 58%, the highest in the NHL. They also have the highest Fenwick % of 57.3%, also the highest in the NHL. Their Team PDO is 988, which is near the bottom of the NHL.

What these stats tell us is that if the Kings keep playing like they are currently playing, that their luck will balance out and they will start scoring and winning more.

Here's a glossary of terms if you should need it:

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/puck/glossary/

If Fraser had such tremendous upside, and everyone knows this about him, then how the hell did he clear waivers and wind up in Manchester? I am glad you kind of see what I saw.

I hope we don't get Gagner either, that would be fail of epic proportions !

Why can't we go after another huge gun like Evander Kane or Gaborik? either one of those guys is worth toffoli and whatever scraps we can bundle with it, or even better bundle up some mid level guys and a pick for one of those 2 !!!


and F.F.S. will someone remind Dustin Brown that he is Dustin Brown? that hit he laid against C-bus just made me miss his playing style more!!
- MikeOxbyg

Toffoli and Jones both are in Manchester too. I think too many people are assuming that Fraser's assignment means we're making room for a imminent trade. It certainly clears out the salary cap space should a trade opportunity arise, but I think the Kings simply have their feelers out and aren't actively shopping anyone.

I'm not trying to convince you that Fraser is the best player on the team or anything. Just that he's not terrible at the role that he is expected to play, and that the Kings don't have any other centers in the system that brings what he brings. If we had Darren Helm from the Red Wings, I would be the first to escort Fraser out of the lineup. As far as how he cleared waivers...Players like Fraser aren't a rarity in the NHL. A lot of teams have players that fill this role...some better and some worse. However, they do seem to be a rarity in the Kings system, since we don't have anyone else in the system that brings Fraser's game. I'm satisfied with Fraser on the 4th line with Clifford and Nolan on the wings. Right now, the 4th line isn't our problem, the 1st and 2nd lines are.

If you want a good metric of how a team is doing, take a look at some of the advanced stats sites. There's three stats in particular to look at:

Corsi Percentage (CF%) - A teams rating percentage of all shot attempts for (on goal, missed, blocked) vs. shot attempts against. It gives a good idea of puck possession.

Fenwick Percentage (FF%)- The same stat as above, blocked shots not included.

PDO - (Shooting % + Save %) * 1000 - Measures "luck". This number trends towards 1000. If a team has a PDO below 1000, it means that they are currently "unlucky" and are probably slumping. Conversely if it is above 1000, it means they are very lucky and their current level of play is probably unsustainable.

http://stats.hockeyanalys...e&sort=FFPCT&sortdir=DESC

The Kings have a Corsi % of 58%, the highest in the NHL. They also have the highest Fenwick % of 57.3%, also the highest in the NHL. Their Team PDO is 988, which is near the bottom of the NHL.

What these stats tell us is that if the Kings keep playing like they are currently playing, that their luck will balance out and they will start scoring and winning more.

Here's a glossary of terms if you should need it:

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/puck/glossary/
- tkecanuck341

Ok that definitely paints a clearer picture of where you come from... you crunch numbers and get into the minutia of statistics... I am not knocking that approach as you are covering many bases and I buy into some of what you said about those stats. I on the other hand tend to shy away from stats and algorithms. I tend to be on the meat and potato-ish side of things, crude and superficial maybe even coming off as unknowledgeable, I guess... but my points are substantiated if you watch the games, those numbers don't show you what watching the games would show you, and I know what I am seeing on the ice, it's not conjecture here. I wish I had the time a resources to put together a compilation video of everything I am bringing up, but I don't

now the glossary thing... is just a flat out insult man, really crushed me a bit because I thought we were having healthy discourse.

Without going the way of the "bag" in my retort (and listing credentials that our Canadian constituency would bifurcate themselves laughing at, but to be raised in SoCal and achieve what I did in my time, was actually not too bad), let's just say I know the sport pretty well, and have been a kings fan for 23 years, played the sport for 12 plus years and coached a bit too, so I am left with little option but to take offense to that.

my only question to you at this point is have you ever played the sport at a high level? and I don't mean the intermediate division of a beer league with game times after midnight or an in-house league at some oval with a slurpee poured all over it.... and no.. Broom ball doesn't count either. Obviously you are a super fan, and put a lot of time into those angles, I am just not getting a sense that you have ever played.

Toffoli and Jones both are in Manchester too. I think too many people are assuming that Fraser's assignment means we're making room for a imminent trade. It certainly clears out the salary cap space should a trade opportunity arise, but I think the Kings simply have their feelers out and aren't actively shopping anyone.

I'm not trying to convince you that Fraser is the best player on the team or anything. Just that he's not terrible at the role that he is expected to play, and that the Kings don't have any other centers in the system that brings what he brings. If we had Darren Helm from the Red Wings, I would be the first to escort Fraser out of the lineup. As far as how he cleared waivers...Players like Fraser aren't a rarity in the NHL. A lot of teams have players that fill this role...some better and some worse. However, they do seem to be a rarity in the Kings system, since we don't have anyone else in the system that brings Fraser's game. I'm satisfied with Fraser on the 4th line with Clifford and Nolan on the wings. Right now, the 4th line isn't our problem, the 1st and 2nd lines are.
- tkecanuck341

Toffoli and jones were sent down to stay active during the break, much different than hanging them out on the waiver wire and getting stuck with them.

I am well aware of what Frasers role was on the team, I just don't think he or the team is playing well enough to justify keeping him around any longer. Nolan and Clifford are a bit disappointing too but I see more value in them than Fraser. and I agree the top 2 lines are a mess right now and the second line is a complete bust.

I just don't get how all the other teams can walk the line of speed and strength, have a strong attack and play good defense at the same time when it seems like the kings are having to choose one or the other in their "system", that's what makes me put the personnel under the microscope.

Ok that definitely paints a clearer picture of where you come from... you crunch numbers and get into the minutia of statistics... I am not knocking that approach as you are covering many bases and I buy into some of what you said about those stats. I on the other hand tend to shy away from stats and algorithms. I tend to be on the meat and potato-ish side of things, crude and superficial maybe even coming off as unknowledgeable, I guess... but my points are substantiated if you watch the games, those numbers don't show you what watching the games would show you, and I know what I am seeing on the ice, it's not conjecture here. I wish I had the time a resources to put together a compilation video of everything I am bringing up, but I don't

now the glossary thing... is just a flat out insult man, really crushed me a bit because I thought we were having healthy discourse.

Without going the way of the "bag" in my retort (and listing credentials that our Canadian constituency would bifurcate themselves laughing at, but to be raised in SoCal and achieve what I did in my time, was actually not too bad), let's just say I know the sport pretty well, and have been a kings fan for 23 years, played the sport for 12 plus years and coached a bit too, so I am left with little option but to take offense to that.

my only question to you at this point is have you ever played the sport at a high level? and I don't mean the intermediate division of a beer league with game times after midnight or an in-house league at some oval with a slurpee poured all over it.... and no.. Broom ball doesn't count either. Obviously you are a super fan, and put a lot of time into those angles, I am just not getting a sense that you have ever played.
- MikeOxbyg

Most people, including long-time hockey fans, don't know about advanced stats since they are a recent development, so I included the glossary to give a better description of the stats I mentioned since mine was brief. If you look through it, you'll see there are definitions of Corsi, Fenwick, and PDO. That's where I was coming from, it was not meant as an insult.

I played college hockey as a goaltender. I don't know if that qualifies as "high level" in your book or not. Our team didn't make it to the Frozen Four or anything, but it was definitely several steps above beer league.

I haven't missed a Kings game in over five years. We have season seats, so I probably make it to 25-30 games per year at Staples and we sell/give away the rest. Whatever games I don't attend I watch on Fox Sports. I don't primarily base my analysis on the numbers, but I definitely tie them in with what I see on the ice.

Toffoli and jones were sent down to stay active during the break, much different than hanging them out on the waiver wire and getting stuck with them.

I am well aware of what Frasers role was on the team, I just don't think he or the team is playing well enough to justify keeping him around any longer. Nolan and Clifford are a bit disappointing too but I see more value in them than Fraser. and I agree the top 2 lines are a mess right now and the second line is a complete bust.

I just don't get how all the other teams can walk the line of speed and strength, have a strong attack and play good defense at the same time when it seems like the kings are having to choose one or the other in their "system", that's what makes me put the personnel under the microscope.
- MikeOxbyg

I agree that Clifford is having an average year, but Nolan has been exceptional. There has been nothing disappointing about his season at all.

18 other teams seem to not have as good of a balance as you suggest, as they are lower in the standings than the Kings. A hockey season is 6 months long, not 6 weeks, every team is going to have its ups and downs. The Kings mantra since Terry Murray has always been "offense wins games, defense wins championships." They don't play the most exciting brand of hockey, but they do play an effective one. One of the side-effects of the system is extended goal droughts, which happened in 2011-12, 2012-13, and now this year. We won the cup in 2012 and lost in the Conference Finals to the team who won it all in 2013. I'm betting that our chances are pretty good to make a large dent in the postseason this year. I'm just happy we got our slump out of the way in January, and not April/May.

Most people, including long-time hockey fans, don't know about advanced stats since they are a recent development, so I included the glossary to give a better description of the stats I mentioned since mine was brief. If you look through it, you'll see there are definitions of Corsi, Fenwick, and PDO. That's where I was coming from, it was not meant as an insult.

I played college hockey as a goaltender. I don't know if that qualifies as "high level" in your book or not. Our team didn't make it to the Frozen Four or anything, but it was definitely several steps above beer league.

I haven't missed a Kings game in over five years. We have season seats, so I probably make it to 25-30 games per year at Staples and we sell/give away the rest. Whatever games I don't attend I watch on Fox Sports. I don't primarily base my analysis on the numbers, but I definitely tie them in with what I see on the ice.
- tkecanuck341

Corsi is a very in-depth statistical analysis of how a player performs and actually overcomes a lot of variables that very basic stats like +/-don't take into account (which makes the +/- stat one of the most deceiving and inaccurate stats in hockey). It isn't based on just goals and assists, but measures a variety of skills that are needed for a hockey team to be successful. You are absolutely correct that Corsi has to be combined with your personal viewing of the games since Corsi doesn't measure heart and effort. Some may find it interesting that the first thing Dean Lombardi looks at when reviewing a player that he is interested in drafting, signing or trading for. I don't know what Fraser's Corsi is for this season, but I have a feeling it was not where it should be and thus the placement on waivers.

Most people, including long-time hockey fans, don't know about advanced stats since they are a recent development, so I included the glossary to give a better description of the stats I mentioned since mine was brief. If you look through it, you'll see there are definitions of Corsi, Fenwick, and PDO. That's where I was coming from, it was not meant as an insult.

I played college hockey as a goaltender. I don't know if that qualifies as "high level" in your book or not. Our team didn't make it to the Frozen Four or anything, but it was definitely several steps above beer league.

I haven't missed a Kings game in over five years. We have season seats, so I probably make it to 25-30 games per year at Staples and we sell/give away the rest. Whatever games I don't attend I watch on Fox Sports. I don't primarily base my analysis on the numbers, but I definitely tie them in with what I see on the ice.
- tkecanuck341

Hahahaha I read through the first couple terms on that page and I was like "really man?" hahahahaa

I have heard of those stats on the NHL network, never did any intense independent research on them though.

So now that I know you are not a fantasy geek, we can move on.

I never knew about that "luck stat" that was pretty interesting, and I agree there is a bit of bad luck happening, and then you combine that with terrible play and you can kind of see reasons for the slump. But I stand firm that I am seeing some real poor play from some of our "best guys" and I can't make an excuse for them nor can I allow myself to look back and rely on their past performances to give me any kind of optimism. Those dark years after Gretzky left really jaded me, I got incredibly accustomed to bashing my team and seeing the flaws and constantly Beeotching about it, the recent success in 2012 was so welcomed, I really don't want it to stop, but the minute I see glimpses of those horrific years I just jump right back into that old mindset of "we suck" "coach sucks" "can't make a decent trade" LOL its like a reflex to me!

Just entertain me a bit and watch him closely, check out his passes, watch him on the forecheck and the back check, and also tell me if you don't see a severe drop in speed... I may be a little bat $hit crazy, but what I am seeing is some real weak passing, flubbing and whiffing on the puck 70% of the time and skating that is very slow and lacking any kind of energy...

I see an entirely different player from the cup run...
- MikeOxbyg

I agree 100%

He looks lazy to me but then again maybe he's unhappy about something.

I will give him the benefit of the doubt until playoff time. I just think he'll step it up.

Corsi is a very in-depth statistical analysis of how a player performs and actually overcomes a lot of variables that very basic stats like +/-don't take into account (which makes the +/- stat one of the most deceiving and inaccurate stats in hockey). It isn't based on just goals and assists, but measures a variety of skills that are needed for a hockey team to be successful. You are absolutely correct that Corsi has to be combined with your personal viewing of the games since Corsi doesn't measure heart and effort. Some may find it interesting that the first thing Dean Lombardi looks at when reviewing a player that he is interested in drafting, signing or trading for. I don't know what Fraser's Corsi is for this season, but I have a feeling it was not where it should be and thus the placement on waivers.
- DesertKing

Fraser's CF% 5v5 (Close) is 53.7%, right between Nolan's 54.1% and Clifford's 53.5%. He is ahead of Stoll (53.6%), Vey (50%), & Frattin (51.2%), but behind all the top-six guys.

Kopitar (62.3%) & Williams (60.9%) lead the team's forwards.

I agree that Clifford is having an average year, but Nolan has been exceptional. There has been nothing disappointing about his season at all.

18 other teams seem to not have as good of a balance as you suggest, as they are lower in the standings than the Kings. A hockey season is 6 months long, not 6 weeks, every team is going to have its ups and downs. The Kings mantra since Terry Murray has always been "offense wins games, defense wins championships." They don't play the most exciting brand of hockey, but they do play an effective one. One of the side-effects of the system is extended goal droughts, which happened in 2011-12, 2012-13, and now this year. We won the cup in 2012 and lost in the Conference Finals to the team who won it all in 2013. I'm betting that our chances are pretty good to make a large dent in the postseason this year. I'm just happy we got our slump out of the way in January, and not April/May.
- tkecanuck341

Not going to argue with any of that, just going to hope that your assessment prevails and my outlook is forced to change... would be real nice to bump the ducks out of the play offs though

I agree 100%

He looks lazy to me but then again maybe he's unhappy about something.

I will give him the benefit of the doubt until playoff time. I just think he'll step it up.
- Anjin

I think we've beaten to death the "Mike Richards sucks" horse, so I will just add that his personal PDO is 965, by far the lowest on the team.

Hahahaha I read through the first couple terms on that page and I was like "really man?" hahahahaa

I have heard of those stats on the NHL network, never did any intense independent research on them though.

So now that I know you are not a fantasy geek, we can move on.

I never knew about that "luck stat" that was pretty interesting, and I agree there is a bit of bad luck happening, and then you combine that with terrible play and you can kind of see reasons for the slump. But I stand firm that I am seeing some real poor play from some of our "best guys" and I can't make an excuse for them nor can I allow myself to look back and rely on their past performances to give me any kind of optimism. Those dark years after Gretzky left really jaded me, I got incredibly accustomed to bashing my team and seeing the flaws and constantly Beeotching about it, the recent success in 2012 was so welcomed, I really don't want it to stop, but the minute

I see glimpses of those horrific years I just jump right back into that old mindset of "we suck" "coach sucks" "can't make a decent trade" LOL its like a reflex to me!
- MikeOxbyg

Well put.........I know exactly what you mean. I'm right there with you.

Hahahaha I read through the first couple terms on that page and I was like "really man?" hahahahaa

I have heard of those stats on the NHL network, never did any intense independent research on them though.

So now that I know you are not a fantasy geek, we can move on.

I never knew about that "luck stat" that was pretty interesting, and I agree there is a bit of bad luck happening, and then you combine that with terrible play and you can kind of see reasons for the slump. But I stand firm that I am seeing some real poor play from some of our "best guys" and I can't make an excuse for them nor can I allow myself to look back and rely on their past performances to give me any kind of optimism. Those dark years after Gretzky left really jaded me, I got incredibly accustomed to bashing my team and seeing the flaws and constantly Beeotching about it, the recent success in 2012 was so welcomed, I really don't want it to stop, but the minute I see glimpses of those horrific years I just jump right back into that old mindset of "we suck" "coach sucks" "can't make a decent trade" LOL its like a reflex to me!
- MikeOxbyg

Think of Corsi as the equivalent of "Moneyball" in baseball. It actually does work (the 2012 and 2013 Kings are proof of it) and basically the stats mean that as long as they are in the positive, you will win a majority of your games. As I said earlier, Lombardi (and Hextall) are big Corsi fans. While some think it is a "fantasy" system, it really is an applicable science for HL teams. Lombardi isn't the only one who is using the system. It does have its weak points (as does every evaluation or stat system), but because its sample size is so much larger with more variables removed, it becomes a much more accurate measure of how teams and players are performing.

Well put.........I know exactly what you mean. I'm right there with you.
- dprice818

at least we have the distraction of USA hockey for a couple weeks, I am all geeked up on Olympic hockey!

at least we have the distraction of USA hockey for a couple weeks, I am all geeked up on Olympic hockey!
- MikeOxbyg

Right? Its taking too long though......the tightened schedule had me used to games almost every other night...........looking forward to it for sure. GO USA!!!

Quick to start in goal for Team USA against Slovakia.