Signs of trouble:

- The Canadian dollar continuing to trend down. (frank)ing Canadians.
- onset of outdoor game fatigue. Philly plays in one next year. Problem solved.
- Sid/OV aren't young anymore... torch goes to…? Morin, Ghost.
- Boston/LA/Chicago aren't winning the Cup indefinitely. Flyers building a dynasty
- 1/3 of the clubs are losing/hemorrhaging money. Get rid of 'em.
- continued softness in US and Canadian economies. Perry-Palin 2016!


I'm not taking unabated growth in HRR as a given.

Signs of trouble:

- The Canadian dollar continuing to trend down,
- onset of outdoor game fatigue,
- Sid/OV aren't young anymore... torch goes to...?
- Boston/LA/Chicago aren't winning the Cup indefinitely,
- 1/3 of the clubs are losing/hemorrhaging money,
- continued softness in US and Canadian economies.


I'm not taking unabated growth in HRR as a given.
- Tomahawk

Allow me...

F'n Obama.

What evidence is there of outdoor game fatigue? Hockey will go on long after Sid and OV are done playing. None of those teams have to win the Cup for HRR to continue to grow. Clubs have been losing money on the books for years. HRR and the Cap continued to grow.
- MJL

WWIII might affect the cap slightly.

I think the Pens would beat them, but they'd really sweat it out. Wings young players are starting to step up. Nyquist has been very good lately.
- PhillySportsGuy

The only question is no matter who the Pens play in the 1st round. Which Fluery shows up?

The only question is no matter who the Pens play in the 1st round. Which Fluery shows up?
- Daveflyers36

No one knows. I bet Fleury doesn't even know

WWIII might affect the cap slightly.
- Feanor

Sid vs OV... FOR REAL.

Sid vs OV... FOR REAL.
- Tomahawk

The Coldest War on Ice.

The Coldest War on Ice™.
- wolfhounds

Do you have any evidence of the contrary?
- MJL

Typical forecasting techniques. Assuming what happened yesterday will happen today is a naïve forecast. Its the least sophisticated and typically the most inaccurate of models.

I'm not taking unabated growth in HRR as a given.
- PhillySportsGuy

One of our fundamental problems, across the board, is assuming growth is steady and continuous.

One of our fundamental problems, across the board, is assuming growth is steady and continuous.
- wolfhounds

From BigE earlier:

The weakening Canadian dollar is certainly a concern, but the massive new Canadian TV deal that kicks in next season is going to push it up no matter what. Its just a question of how much. Don't forget, the cap ceiling was artificially deflated this year as part of the CBA. If that hadn't happened, it would most likely have been around 67-68 million this year rather than 64.3

I think we can expect the cap to significantly increase over the next couple of years. I think it would be foolish to assume the cap will increase by $4-5M every year for the next 10 years though.

Signs of trouble:

- The Canadian dollar continuing to trend down. (frank)ing Canadians.
- onset of outdoor game fatigue. Philly plays in one next year. Problem solved.
- Sid/OV aren't young anymore... torch goes to…? Morin, Ghost.
- Boston/LA/Chicago aren't winning the Cup indefinitely. Flyers building a dynasty
- 1/3 of the clubs are losing/hemorrhaging money. Get rid of 'em.
- continued softness in US and Canadian economies. Perry-Palin 2016!


I'm not taking unabated growth in HRR as a given.
- PhillySportsGuy

I think we can expect the cap to significantly increase over the next couple of years. I think it would be foolish to assume the cap will increase by $4-5M every year for the next 10 years though.
- PhillySportsGuy

Canadian dollar hasn't held parity with the USD for an extended period since the '70's. With 50% of league revenues coming from Canada, and the loonie continuing to slide back into equilibrium, it could effectively wipe out the gains from both TV deals.

Canadian dollar hasn't held parity with the USD for an extended period since the '70's. With 50% of league revenues coming from Canada, and the loonie continuing to slide back into equilibrium, it could effectively wipe out the gains from both TV deals.
- Tomahawk

Its that bad? I was hearing the drop in the Canadian dollar wasn't going to effect the cap as much as first thought. Maybe $1-2M this year. Not the original $3M

From BigE earlier:

The weakening Canadian dollar is certainly a concern, but the massive new Canadian TV deal that kicks in next season is going to push it up no matter what. Its just a question of how much. Don't forget, the cap ceiling was artificially deflated this year as part of the CBA. If that hadn't happened, it would most likely have been around 67-68 million this year rather than 64.3

I think we can expect the cap to significantly increase over the next couple of years. I think it would be foolish to assume the cap will increase by $4-5M every year for the next 10 years though.
- PhillySportsGuy

Exactly
Trying to project the cap beyond the next 3 seasons or so is just foolish. I can see the following being reasonable projections

14-15: 69-70 million
15-16: 74-77 million
16-17: 76-79 million

After that, who knows. If both the Canadian and US economies soften, the cap will most likely hover at or near 80 million until the current CBA expires. To even try and guess what happens beyond that is just a waste of time.

Also there is a very good chance that 2 expansion clubs will be added before the end of the decade and that 1 or 2 teams may relocate. These would also likely increase overall revenues as will the Isles move to a much nicer and newer stadium in Brooklyn.

The Coldest War on Ice.
- wolfhounds

80's... Mr. Gorbachev, Tear down this wall.
Today: Mr. Putin, Please give Crimea back.

At least we beat their ass in hockey.

Sixers loss number 25 in a row upcoming tonight in San Antonio. Does anyone remember the last pro team in Philadelphia to win 25 games in a row?

I love the comments from the coach after the last loss. "it's not about wins and losses" Perhaps they should stop keeping score of the games. Have a running clock, put mats down in between quarters for nap and snack time.

Its that bad? I was hearing the drop in the Canadian dollar wasn't going to effect the cap as much as first thought. Maybe $1-2M this year. Not the original $3M
- PhillySportsGuy

$1-2M per team doesn't sound like much, but that's about $60-120M difference in expected revenues for the entire league. That's a huge impact for a gate-driven league.

Sixers loss number 25 in a row upcoming tonight in San Antonio. Does anyone remember the last pro team in Philadelphia to win 25 games in a row?

I love the comments from the coach after the last loss. "it's not about wins and losses" Perhaps they should stop keeping score of the games. Have a running clock, put mats down in between quarters for nap and snack time.
- PLindbergh31

Its not about wins. Its about losses. Keep racking them up.

Its not about wins. Its about losses. Keep racking them up.
- PhillySportsGuy

Exactly, because all the losses the last 5 years have really paid dividends.

Canadian dollar hasn't held parity with the USD for an extended period since the '70's. With 50% of league revenues coming from Canada, and the loonie continuing to slide back into equilibrium, it could effectively wipe out the gains from both TV deals.
- Tomahawk

Perhaps, though long range projections for the Canadian economy are actually pretty good due their increased development and export of natural gas.

$1-2M per team doesn't sound like much, but that's about $60-120M difference in expected revenues for the entire league. That's a huge impact.
- Tomahawk

But I'm only looking at it in terms of cap space per team.

It's surprising how much Richards' game seems to have slipped. He's still been solid, but he doesn't look like the guy capable of stepping up and delivering plays like The Shift on a semi-regular basis.

Not sure if it's wear & tear or if he's dinged up, but he hasn't been anywhere near the guy he was as a Flyer or even his first year in El Lay
- Jsaquella

who knows. i'm happy with our return. was then. am now. the cup will be ours.

Its not about wins. Its about losses. Keep racking them up.
- PhillySportsGuy

I don't really follow basketball very closely. Assuming the Sixers pick 1st or 2nd in the draft, is there a franchise player or 2 available that can turn them around?

who knows. i'm happy with our return. was then. am now. the cup will be ours.
- hammarby31