Silly scientists and all their peer reviewed research, don't they realize the average dumbass knows better than them?

Using stats as a predictor in sports is pointless (unless you're Vegas) because the game still needs to be played.
- wolfhounds

I agree. Its nearly impossible to predict how teams will perform on a game to game basis. The stats are more of a way to predict a season to season basis.

Alright. I won't even discuss it with you guys, but you need to accept the fact that advanced stats do matter and people who pay attention to those things will discuss them. Just choose to ignore it if you don't believe in them. I was just pointing out how dominating the 3rd period was for the Flyers based on statistics.
- PhillySportsGuy

I think they can certainly give some insight to the game, but that insight is very limited. And they have to be used correctly. But in the big picture, they don't really matter. Or if they do, it's very little.

So saying this is a must need win because we are 1 point behind a division opponent is useless? (Those are stats btw.)
- FlyersSteve118

You're not trying to predict anything; you're analyzing the current situation and coming to a conclusion.

I agree. Its nearly impossible to predict how teams will perform on a game to game basis. The stats are more of a way to predict a season to season basis.
- PhillySportsGuy

Thats not really true. People can predict who will win a specific playoff series. People say things like this team doesn't match up well against this team or whatever. They are using stats to make these assumptions, but they just don't know how to quantify them. They are going by what their eyes are telling them.

You're not trying to predict anything; you're analyzing the current situation and coming to a conclusion.
- wolfhounds

Me saying I think this team is over rated because their possession numbers outweigh their shooting percentage is the same as you saying. Go Flyers, we have been playing New York better this year, I think we got this game tomorrow.

I agree. Its nearly impossible to predict how teams will perform on a game to game basis. The stats are more of a way to predict a season to season basis.
- PhillySportsGuy

But even then it's suspect because so much changes from season to season - new players, everybody is a year older, new coaches, trades, retirement, new contracts, new life situations (births, marriages, deaths, divorce) etc.

But we all do what we all do...and on this site there tends to be a lot of redundant conversations akin to beating a well-worn horse, so talking stats, corsi, fenwick, past or future trades, etc. just comes with the territory.

In my opinion...

Alright. I won't even discuss it with you guys, but you need to accept the fact that advanced stats do matter and people who pay attention to those things will discuss them. Just choose to ignore it if you don't believe in them. I was just pointing out how dominating the 3rd period was for the Flyers based on statistics.
- PhillySportsGuy

I could have told you that by what I watched. I could have also predicted that before the 3rd period started because they had a lousy 2 periods but were still close and likely getting a lashing by Berube.

Let me give you a non-hockey example. People that use Stats to play poker. Pot bets, pot commited, being in position, etc. etc. etc.... I (frank) with people that play like that. I keep everything completly unpredictable. And I win... a lot. I would play a lot more, but really the people that I play with turned into stat nazi's and it has become too boring.

Alright. I won't even discuss it with you guys, but you need to accept the fact that advanced stats do matter and people who pay attention to those things will discuss them. Just choose to ignore it if you don't believe in them. I was just pointing out how dominating the 3rd period was for the Flyers based on statistics.
- PhillySportsGuy

Advanced stats are just a more complex accounting of historical data collected during previous games.

Nothing wrong with them themselves, only in how they're applied.

It's like people who use polling results from loaded questions toward 1,000 people to aply that same % to 300+ million people.

The comparisons aren't exact, but the feeling is the same I think. Actually... no... they're not. One is based on historical fact of previous performance and the other is based on bias.

Meh.... the idea of back surgery has me feeling extra negative today.

Thats not really true. People can predict who will win a specific playoff series. People say things like this team doesn't match up well against this team or whatever. They are using stats to make these assumptions, but they just don't know how to quantify them. They are going by what their eyes are telling them.
- FlyersSteve118

Because the NHL playoffs are so predictable…

I don't know anyone who routinely predicts how the NHL playoffs will play out. Most "experts" can't even predict the winners of each conference.

I think advanced stats are important in telling which teams are getting a bit of puck luck and which teams aren't. I don't think they're a great measurable for individual players though.

http://www.crossingbroad....-went-horribly-wrong.html


Flyer fans hijacked this Q and A with James Neal

I could have told you that by what I watched. I could have also predicted that before the 3rd period started because they had a lousy 2 periods but were still close and likely getting a lashing by Berube.

Let me give you a non-hockey example. People that use Stats to play poker. Pot bets, pot commited, being in position, etc. etc. etc.... I (frank) with people that play like that. I keep everything completly unpredictable. And I win... a lot. I would play a lot more, but really the people that I play with turned into stat nazi's and it has become too boring.
- SchennBros

Understanind %'s in poker is quite different than advanced stats though man. You're closer to what we're both thinking than I was in my attempt to compare it to something else.

In poker understanding and applying %'s helps regardless of whether the other person is bluffing or not. If you have a hand that has 0 possibility of being beaten, no matter what your opponent does can stop him from letting you win.

I play poker with a bunch of guys that want to go pro but lack the basic concept of human nature and/or body language. If you play strictly with the %'s and only them, you'll lose more than you'll win. It's a tool to use good players become better players.

Now I want to play online poker

I think advanced stats are important in telling which teams are getting a bit of puck luck and which teams aren't. I don't think they're a great measurable for individual players though.
- PhillySportsGuy

Nailed it.

Because the NHL playoffs are so predictable…

I don't know anyone who routinely predicts how the NHL playoffs will play out. Most "experts" can't even predict the winners of each conference.

I think advanced stats are important in telling which teams are getting a bit of puck luck and which teams aren't. I don't think they're a great measurable for individual players though.
- PhillySportsGuy

We should have a pool going for the playoffs. March madness type of pool for hockey.

Thats not really true. People can predict who will win a specific playoff series. People say things like this team doesn't match up well against this team or whatever. They are using stats to make these assumptions, but they just don't know how to quantify them. They are going by what their eyes are telling them.
- FlyersSteve118

Nothing wrong with educated guesses, but that's exactly what it is. That's why there are always - always - upsets in sports. And that is why people tried to boil the numbers, to limit the number of unforeseen upsets...so they could make a few bucks betting.

But even then it's suspect because so much changes from season to season - new players, everybody is a year older, new coaches, trades, retirement, new contracts, new life situations (births, marriages, deaths, divorce) etc.

But we all do what we all do...and on this site there tends to be a lot of redundant conversations akin to beating a well-worn horse, so talking stats, corsi, fenwick, past or future trades, etc. just comes with the territory.

In my opinion...
- wolfhounds

It can show which players or teams got lucky though. Take Voracek for example. His shooting percentage was very high. Much higher than any other year. He got some puck luck last year and it made him a point per game player.

Voracek isn't a worse player this year because he's not scoring at the same pace. He's just scoring at his normal rate again.

Shooting percentage is hardly an advanced stat, but its more than goals, assists, points and +/-

http://www.crossingbroad.com/2014/03/the-penguins-askneal-twitter-hashtag-went-horribly-wrong.html


Flyer fans hijacked this Q and A with James Neal
- Winning

This might be the greatest thing Twitter has ever done

I agree. Its nearly impossible to predict how teams will perform on a game to game basis. The stats are more of a way to predict a season to season basis.
- PhillySportsGuy

It's a commonly repeated misconception that statisticians are aiming to predict individual game outcomes using numbers -- it's just a lazy critique.

Stats, whether traditional or fancy, are only a record of what has transpired in the past... their predictive capacity is limited to charting trends and undercurrents over large sample sizes.

It can show which players or teams got lucky though. Take Voracek for example. His shooting percentage was very high. Much higher than any other year. He got some puck luck last year and it made him a point per game player.

Voracek isn't a worse player this year because he's not scoring at the same pace. He's just scoring at his normal rate again.

Shooting percentage is hardly an advanced stat, but its more than goals, assists, points and +/-
- PhillySportsGuy

Agreed. I'm not anti-stats or numbers at all, nor would I argue they don't have their place... I just don't care about them anywhere near as much as I enjoy watching the games.

Stats would have predicted, in your opinion, what record for the Flyers over the previous 6 games?

http://www.crossingbroad.com/2014/03/the-penguins-askneal-twitter-hashtag-went-horribly-wrong.html


Flyer fans hijacked this Q and A with James Neal
- Winning

Holy poop...those are awesome!

Nothing wrong with educated guesses, but that's exactly what it is. That's why there are always - always - upsets in sports. And that is why people tried to boil the numbers, to limit the number of unforeseen upsets...so they could make a few bucks betting.
- wolfhounds

Thats all advanced stats are. Quantitative educated guesses. It's called statistics. Just because something has a 99% chance of occurring doesn't mean that the 1% can't come out on top. It also doesn't mean you shouldn't put your money on the 99%.

Thats all advanced stats are. Quantitative educated guesses. It's called statistics. Just because something has a 99% chance of occurring doesn't mean that the 1% can't come out on top. It also doesn't mean you shouldn't put your money on the 99%.
- FlyersSteve118

Agreed.

I'm not anti-stats or anything like that...

I bet you liked the movie Pi, right?

Yes, because no one wants to take the time to read. Its really not that complicated. If you understand hockey, it can be explained very easily.
- PhillySportsGuy

Yes, it can be explained very easily. Here is how it is summed up:

In general, a team that has more possession time and more shots will be more successful than a team with lower possession time and fewer shots, all things being equal. Of course, let's forget that that statement is logical and instead come up with some crazy amount of number crunching to prove it and show how terrible defensively-minded players are.

I've also heard that goalies who stop a greater percentage of shots on goal generally have more wins than goalies who stop fewer...but unless I see stats to prove it, I'm chalking that one up to a myth.

Agreed. I'm not anti-stats or numbers at all, nor would I argue they don't have their place... I just don't care about them anywhere near as much as I enjoy watching the games.

Stats would have predicted, in your opinion, what record for the Flyers over the previous 6 games?
- wolfhounds

Advanced stats can't completely predict everything. They just give you the most likely scenarios.

I use the website numberfire for fantasy football and the website really does work most of the time. Its not flawless, but its helped me get a leg up in my league. I started using the site midway through the season and my team made a great run. I was 6th in my league and made my way to 2nd place by the end of the season. Would have won if Jamal Charles didn't have 250 yards and 5 touchdowns in one (frank)ing game!

Agreed.

I'm not anti-stats or anything like that...

I bet you liked the movie Pi, right?
- wolfhounds

Never heard of it

Never heard of it
- FlyersSteve118

PI IS EXACTLY THREE!