I swore I wasn't going to get into this again, but that's it exactly.

The phrase "regress to the mean" is not some mystical wizardry meant to befuddle the populace.

What it does is also help you to avoid horrific, long-term contracts based off unsustainable "career" years or hot stretches.

I am amazed at how this board just resents the very mention of this stuff -- we use predictors in every single aspect of life.

For example: You think about moving. Do you move into the neighborhood with high crime rates? Do you move into the neighborhood with schools that are rated poorly?

Of course you don't, if you have a choice.

We don't use just "the eyeball test" in any aspect of our daily lives. We use predictors and trends everywhere.
- AllInForFlyers

This is a poor analogy in my opinion. If you look at crime statistics in a neighborhood, it's black and white. A hood with a high crime rate, means just that.
Analytics and advanced statistics aren't like that. They require analysis and context to figure out what they say. And depending on one's point of view, or conformation bias, one can come up with a different conclusion then someone else does. Not to mention that they just can't do what they're trying to do.

I don't really boo, but I smile when I hear them booed.

I was a little upset they didn't do a commemorative piece for Carter like they did for Richards.
- PhillySportsGuy

Yeah, I agree, Carter deserved some recognition

"Grossmann sucks!"
"No he doesn't!"
"CORSI!"
"CORSI sucks!"
"No it doesn't!"
"Shut up, liberal!"
"Conservatives suck!"
"Liberals suck!"

Rinse and repeat.

I don't boo -- I find the energy used to be wasted.

I try to understand it, because I understand the base premise: Liked player leaves, fanbase misses player. I understand it.

And because they are players who I am familiar with, I track some guys who go on to other teams.

But I'll be honest: At the end of the day, I pretty much don't give a poop what guys who play on other teams do. I just don't. Because they're gone, and most of the time, they're not coming back.

I tend to obsess over players who are here, or might be coming, not those who have left and aren't coming back.

But that's just me.
- AllInForFlyers

Which category does Weber fall into...?

Yeah, I agree, Carter deserved some recognition
- BiggE

I disagree. Gagne and Richards did.
Gagne was a fan favorite, and is one of the classiest guys that I've seen don the O&B.
Richards was a former captain and led his team to a SCF,
Carter once scored 46 goals and...um...yeah, he scored a lot.

Which category does Weber fall into...?
- SchennBros

A lifelong Nashville Predator

I still say it would be a hell of a time to get all of us hooligans together one day.

Pretty certain we would all be an awesome time.

poop can often come across differently on a message board. One day...

This is a poor analogy in my opinion. If you look at crime statistics in a neighborhood, it's black and white. A hood with a high crime rate, means just that.
Analytics and advanced statistics aren't like that. They require analysis and context to figure out what they say. And depending on one's point of view, or conformation bias, one can come up with a different conclusion then someone else does. Not to mention that they just can't do what they're trying to do.
- MJL

Crime stats need context, too -- all stats do.

For example: Rapes are high on a college campus. OK. Horrible.

But because the rapes are high on the college campus, that drives that percentage up for a town that might not see another assault anywhere else.

So. Does the eyeball test tell you that you're more likely to be raped on the college campus? It's giving you a feel for that likelihood, but not telling you definitively. Is it telling you that you'll never be raped anywhere else in that town? Of course not -- because, again, it's giving a feel for the likelihood.

That's context. It's always applicable. Confirmation bias is real, but so is ignorance of long-term trends.

"Grossmann sucks!"
"No he doesn't!"
"CORSI!"
"CORSI sucks!"
"No it doesn't!"
"Shut up, liberal!"
"Conservatives suck!"
"Liberals suck!"

Rinse and repeat.
- jmatchett383

AGAIN! AGAIN! AGAIN!

I still say it would be a hell of a time to get all of us hooligans together one day.

Pretty certain we would all be an awesome time.

poop can often come across differently on a message board. One day...
- flyer_nutter

I have agoraphobia. Just thinking about meeting you guys makes me afraid to go out into public...

Crime stats need context, too -- all stats do.

For example: Rapes are high on a college campus. OK. Horrible.

But because the rapes are high on the college campus, that drives that percentage up for a town that might not see another assault anywhere else.

So. Does the eyeball test tell you that you're more likely to be raped on the college campus? It's giving you a feel for that likelihood, but not telling you definitively. Is it telling you that you'll never be raped anywhere else in that town? Of course not -- because, again, it's giving a feel for the likelihood.

That's context. It's always applicable. Confirmation bias is real, but so is ignorance of long-term trends.
- AllInForFlyers

- SchennBros

Now you know how I feel when you guys talk about politics.

But I get it: We all know where we stand on this stuff.

On to something else, then.

If you look at crime statistics in a neighborhood, it's black and white. A hood with a high crime rate, means just that.
- MJL

A lifelong Nashville Predator
- jmatchett383

Exactly -- Shea Weber's never coming here. Great player, but never coming here, so I don't worry about him.

tell me more about the Pi discussions...
- Crimsoninja

I hear it's exactly three

Malkin out 2-3 weeks

Exactly -- Shea Weber's never coming here. Great player, but never coming here, so I don't worry about him.
- AllInForFlyers

Well, I do worry about him. I mean, I heard he once had a bad day. He slammed his fist on his table, and the following occurred:

http://www.huffingtonpost...ake-tsunami_n_834380.html

God help us if he ever has a bad year.

- Tomahawk

phrasing

And whoa... 'Hawks sign JvR's brother:
http://blackhawks.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=711038

I get tired of the passive aggressive tone .
- twotoekenn

I hadn't really thought much of it. I still like our penguinian friend, but I suppose it can grate to see it everyday.

And whoa... 'Hawks sign JvR's brother:
http://blackhawks.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=711038
- Tomahawk

This is almost as much of a travesty as failing to get Rundblad.

And whoa... 'Hawks sign JvR's brother:
http://blackhawks.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=711038
- Tomahawk

Quick, we need to sign Greg Coburn!!!

From another site:

“How, in a situation like that, can there be so much bad attitude and anger from those people? I don’t get it.” Jagr said. “What kind of world are we in right now? That’s (bleeping) scary. We should be in a world with a lot of love. Instead there’s one guy, who is 40 years old, who is almost done, and he’s causing all that (animosity) over hockey? My brain just doesn’t understand that.”

“When I left Pittsburgh I was traded,” Jagr said. “The first time I came back with Washington everybody booed me so bad. But I was traded. I didn’t leave. But they are going to hate me anyway. They’ve hated me for seven years. Then, when there is a chance that I am going to go back there, all of the sudden they switch for one or two months? Then I don’t go, and they go back to hating me, but even more than before. I don’t get it. I don’t know what kind of world we’re living in. I don’t get it.”


- mikel33

yes, sensei

Quick, we need to sign Greg Coburn!!!
- jmatchett383

I'd rather get Thomas Raffl

And whoa... 'Hawks sign JvR's brother:
http://blackhawks.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=711038
- Tomahawk

Wish there was another Matt Read out there we could pop on the third or fourth line.

The Folin kid sounds like a decent prospect, but I would have to believe it is nigh-impossible to bring a college defenseman into your Top 6 down the stretch for a playoff team, so if he wants immediate playing time, the Flyers are probably going to be behind some of the worse-off teams in the league