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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Playing for Third, Gustafsson
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Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Apr 11 @ 1:16 PM ET
The Jets aren't the gold standard of the NHL, but I'm concerned by them moving him to wing. If he's such a good defenseman, why would they move him to wing? No team would ever move a top pairing defenseman to wing unless they're complete morons.
- PhillySportsGuy



Trouba, Postma, Redmond, Bogosian... they're stacked on D on that right side. And really thin up front.

(ok maybe stacked isn't the right word.. they have depth.)
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Apr 11 @ 1:19 PM ET
So, you can use stats but dismiss them when others do? How hypocritical can one be?

You spent weeks shredding stats and their biases and now use them to make an argument?

Actually, MacDonald's CF% at 5 on 5 for the entire season is at 43.6% and his CF REL for the entire season is -7.9%

That's a much more significant difference. Comparing 15 games vs 79 games is apples and oranges

- Jsaquella



I haven't used a single stat to dismiss anything. I simply pointed out each player's possession numbers since it's being repeatedly brought up. Fact is that I don't need a single advance stat to come to the correct conclusion on Byfuglien and my interest in him for the Flyers. Nor is it part of my argument.

And as far as looking at MacDonald's CF% for the entire Season. I wouldn't expect it to be good with how the Islanders were misusing him. There's that context again, rearing it's ugly head. The Flyers are using him in a role that he is better suited for.

I'm not married to advanced statistics in coming to my conclusions, nor do I misuse them like so many do to come to false conclusions. In my opinion of course.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Apr 11 @ 1:19 PM ET
Trouba, Postma, Redmond, Bogosian... they're stacked on D on that right side. And really thin up front.
- Tomahawk


I would do Schenn for him. Maybe throw in a smaller prospect/pick (Leier or 2nd).

I just don't trust the guy for a variety of reasons. I get the feeling he doesn't care enough about winning. I admit I have no real evidence to back this up other than the limited number of games I've watched. I just have that feeling.
hammarby31
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: it's been 84 years, AZ
Joined: 01.02.2007

Apr 11 @ 1:21 PM ET
Not an issue. They always find a way to do anything they want.
- Flyersgod


jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Apr 11 @ 1:22 PM ET
I would do Schenn for him. Maybe throw in a smaller prospect/pick (Leier or 2nd).

I just don't trust the guy for a variety of reasons. I get the feeling he doesn't care enough about winning. I admit I have no real evidence to back this up other than the limited number of games I've watched. I just have that feeling.

- PhillySportsGuy


This. I can't quantify/justify it. Just how I feel.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Apr 11 @ 1:22 PM ET
I would do Schenn for him. Maybe throw in a smaller prospect/pick (Leier or 2nd).
- PhillySportsGuy



I'm not dead set against Buff but even I wouldn't go as far as Schenn.

Unless you meant Luke
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Apr 11 @ 1:24 PM ET
I'm not dead set against Buff but even I wouldn't go as far as Schenn.

Unless you meant Luke

- Tomahawk


You just made the case for him being a #1 defenseman and you won't part with B. Schenn for him?!
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Apr 11 @ 1:25 PM ET
I haven't used a single stat to dismiss anything. I simply pointed out each player's possession numbers since it's being repeatedly brought up. Fact is that I don't need a single advance stat to come to the correct conclusion on Byfuglien and my interest in him for the Flyers. Nor is it part of my argument.

And as far as looking at MacDonald's CF% for the entire Season. I wouldn't expect it to be good with how the Islanders were misusing him. There's that context again, rearing it's ugly head. The Flyers are using him in a role that he is better suited for.

I'm not married to advanced statistics in coming to my conclusions, nor do I misuse them like so many do to come to false conclusions. In my opinion of course.

- MJL


You absolutely mis-use the stats in the post you made, while at the same time proving yourself wrong.


You cherry picked two stats, took them completely out of context and tried to make a point...If it's not part of your argument, why use the stats at all?

You compare MacDonald's 15 game sample, playing against lesser QOC as a Flyer to Byfuglien's 79 game sample playing against the highest QOC on the Jets.

That's why MacDonald's entire year of stats are relevant. His CF and CF REL are better because the Flyers are using him as a third pair guy in terms of quality of competition.

Even with your complete mis-use of stats, Byfuglien in more games against better competition had better stats than MacDonald. Thanks for proving my point, Socrates
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Apr 11 @ 1:25 PM ET
This. I can't quantify/justify it. Just how I feel.
- jmatchett383


There are just too many negative things surrounding him for it to be ENTIRELY unjust.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Apr 11 @ 1:26 PM ET
You just made the case for him being a #1 defenseman and you won't part with B. Schenn for him?!
- PhillySportsGuy



Nope, but that's more me not wanting to live to regret pulling the plug on Brayden.

I'm talking Stajan/Hagman/Aulie kind of thing... if I'm parting w/ Brayden Schenn, I will aim for a more Shea Pronger-esque player.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Apr 11 @ 1:27 PM ET
You just made the case for him being a #1 defenseman and you won't part with B. Schenn for him?!
- PhillySportsGuy


I think he's a number one and I wouldn't trade Schenn for him, either. As I have tried to say, he'd be an improvement, but he definitely has warts.

His age, weight and inconsistent defense make me against trading a 22 year old 20 goal center for him
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Apr 11 @ 1:27 PM ET


Thats where he's been banished?

- PhillySportsGuy

He's infringing on my turf over there.
hammarby31
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: it's been 84 years, AZ
Joined: 01.02.2007

Apr 11 @ 1:28 PM ET
wolfhounds
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 06.02.2009

Apr 11 @ 1:29 PM ET
You cherry picked two stats, took them completely out of context and tried to make a point...If it's not part of your argument, why use the stats at all?

You compare MacDonald's 15 game sample, playing against lesser QOC as a Flyer to Byfuglien's 79 game sample playing against the highest QOC on the Jets.

That's why MacDonald's entire year of stats are relevant. His CF and CF REL are better because the Flyers are using him as a third pair guy in terms of quality of competition.

Even with your complete mis-use of stats, Byfuglien in more games against better competition had better stats than MacDonald. Thanks for proving my point, Socrates

- Jsaquella


Do you think Buff is a sound defensive player -- with his stats, quality of competition, points, and +/- -- an offensive dman the Flyers need, or both?
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Apr 11 @ 1:29 PM ET
Nope, but that's more me not wanting to live to regret pulling the plug on Brayden.

I'm talking Stajan/Hagman/Aulie kind of thing... if I'm parting w/ Brayden Schenn, I will aim for a more Shea Pronger-esque player.

- Tomahawk


So you're hoping this turns into a Rick Nash scenario where the Jets just need to unload him and everyone knows? That would be great. We know the Flames won't have any interest in him
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Apr 11 @ 1:29 PM ET
You cherry picked two stats, took them completely out of context and tried to make a point...If it's not part of your argument, why use the stats at all?

You compare MacDonald's 15 game sample, playing against lesser QOC as a Flyer to Byfuglien's 79 game sample playing against the highest QOC on the Jets.

That's why MacDonald's entire year of stats are relevant. His CF and CF REL are better because the Flyers are using him as a third pair guy in terms of quality of competition.

Even with your complete mis-use of stats, Byfuglien in more games against better competition had better stats than MacDonald. Thanks for proving my point, Socrates

- Jsaquella



His ass has yet to be introduced to his elbow...
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Apr 11 @ 1:30 PM ET
His ass has yet to be introduced to his elbow...
- Tomahawk


Be his conclusion is correct, because more than death, he fears being proven wrong.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Apr 11 @ 1:31 PM ET
I think he's a number one and I wouldn't trade Schenn for him, either. As I have tried to say, he'd be an improvement, but he definitely has warts.

His age, weight and inconsistent defense make me against trading a 22 year old 20 goal center for him

- Jsaquella


Well, I don't think its possible without Schenn, Couts, Jake or Simmer going back the other way. Maybe a package like Read, Hagg and pick.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Apr 11 @ 1:32 PM ET
You cherry picked two stats, took them completely out of context and tried to make a point...If it's not part of your argument, why use the stats at all?

You compare MacDonald's 15 game sample, playing against lesser QOC as a Flyer to Byfuglien's 79 game sample playing against the highest QOC on the Jets.

That's why MacDonald's entire year of stats are relevant. His CF and CF REL are better because the Flyers are using him as a third pair guy in terms of quality of competition.

Even with your complete mis-use of stats, Byfuglien in more games against better competition had better stats than MacDonald. Thanks for proving my point, Socrates

- Jsaquella



I didn't cherry pick anything. In fact, I don't think the Corsi stats carry much weight. I made multiple posts on this subject without using a single stat. It's only when the Corsi community started throwing around possession that I supplied the numbers to show that Byfuglien isn't a great possession player. In fact for a player, who is supposed to be an elite puck mover, his possession numbers are rather pedestrian. But really that doesn't matter. Because my entire opinion on both players is based on what I see with my eyes, and not a misuse of any stat.
Quality of Competition stats are so badly flawed that they are pretty much useless. It's all Corsi based. Which is flawed in conception.

If anyone wants to base their argument on stats, they are free to do so. But MacDonald is a better all around defenseman then Byfuglien is. And I'll take MacDinald over Byfuglien any day. No contest.


Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Apr 11 @ 1:32 PM ET
So you're hoping this turns into a Rick Nash scenario where the Jets just need to unload him and everyone knows? That would be great. We know the Flames won't have any interest in him
- PhillySportsGuy



Exactly. If it's not that kind of situation, I'm not even calling about him. I'm chasing after Bogosian... or the unicorn named Jacob.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Apr 11 @ 1:32 PM ET
He's infringing on my turf over there.
- BulliesPhan87


You need to get over there. I don't want the Pens fans thinking we're all like him.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Apr 11 @ 1:32 PM ET
Exactly. If it's not that kind of situation, I'm not even calling about him. I'm chasing after Bogosian... or the unicorn named Jacob.
- Tomahawk


Not happening.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Apr 11 @ 1:34 PM ET
Not happening.
- PhillySportsGuy



So how many Brayden Schenns is it going to take?

/fires up the clone machine
wilsonecho91
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: A dream to some...a nightmare to others, AK
Joined: 11.13.2007

Apr 11 @ 1:37 PM ET
I've decided that we need more forwards who skate and play a fast and normal hockey style. sounds dumb, but all our forwards are awkward in their own way
1) Hartnell and his clumsy self
2) G always circling back with his stick on the ice and using too much energy
3) Voracek speaks for himself
4) Simmonds
5) Lecavamolier and his arm swinging
6) Couts
7) Hall and his straightback

I'd say Read and Schenn are the most normal skaters.

As I said, it's dumb, but I get annoyed watching them. Just (frank)ing skate and stickhandle like a normal person.

Look at TB: they have a bunch of nobody's, but play fast and straightforward.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Apr 11 @ 1:38 PM ET
So how many Brayden Schenns is it going to take?

/fires up the clone machine

- Tomahawk


Well, Schenn is Richards 2.0, Laughton is Richards 3.0, Horvat is Richards 4.0 and Jared McCann is Richards 5.0.

If Richards = Schenn and we draft McCann, we'll have 3 Schenns. I think thats more than enough.
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