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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Playing for Third, Gustafsson
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Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Apr 11 @ 1:41 PM ET
Few Thoughts:

-The Flyers didn't play a bad overall game last night. They had defensive breakdowns, spotty goaltending and failed to capitalize on a lot of prime scoring chances. Lindback played well and had a lot of luck. His defense made a few saves for him as well.

The Flyers controlled large stretches of the game, avoiding the mistakes and getting a bounce here or there and they easily could have gotten the win.It sucks, but not a horrible loss.

-We have folks willing to bend over backwards to pay Andrew MacDonald $5mm a year, but they refuse to consider Dustin Byfuglien?

- Jsaquella


I'm ready to pay him $4.5m a year for four years. Last night when paired with Streit his CF% was thru the roof. It's just one game, but he gets a lot poop for a low CF% by people who happily ignore he's spent most of his time here paired with LSchenn. I still like Luke but he's an offensive black hole most of the time.

I also have interest in Buff, but he's 29 and only has two years left on his contract and Winnipeg will not give him away cheaply. I wouldn't trade BSchenn+ for him.
moylander
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Apr 11 @ 1:41 PM ET
I disagree that Byfuglien is a #1 defenseman. He's an offensive defenseman that is suspect defensively. By my definition, that is not a #1 defenseman. A defenseman who I wouldn't trust in key situations against top lines in big games, is not a player I would label a #1 defenseman.
- MJL


Buff is exciting to watch and would make a great flyer. Does it really matter if he's labeled a #1 or not?
Flyers_V88
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ajax, ON
Joined: 02.26.2013

Apr 11 @ 1:41 PM ET
I've decided that we need more forwards who skate and play a fast and normal hockey style. sounds dumb, but all our forwards are awkward in their own way
1) Hartnell and his clumsy self
2) G always circling back with his stick on the ice and using too much energy
3) Voracek speaks for himself
4) Simmonds
5) Lecavamolier and his arm swinging
6) Couts
7) Hall and his straightback

I'd say Read and Schenn are the most normal skaters.

As I said, it's dumb, but I get annoyed watching them. Just (frank)ing skate and stickhandle like a normal person.

Look at TB: they have a bunch of nobody's, but play fast and straightforward.

- wilsonecho91

LOL. The only one who really bothers me is Adam Hall. If his skating and shooting were better, he'd be a second line center on another team lol. He has excellent awareness and his faceoff skills are the best the Flyers have had in years.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Apr 11 @ 1:42 PM ET
I didn't cherry pick anything. In fact, I don't think the Corsi stats carry much weight. I made multiple posts on this subject without using a single stat. It's only when the Corsi community started throwing around possession that I supplied the numbers to show that Byfuglien isn't a great possession player. In fact for a player, who is supposed to be an elite puck mover, his possession numbers are rather pedestrian. But really that doesn't matter. Because my entire opinion on both players is based on what I see with my eyes, and not a misuse of any stat.
Quality of Competition stats are so badly flawed that they are pretty much useless. It's all Corsi based. Which is flawed in conception.

If anyone wants to base their argument on stats, they are free to do so. But MacDonald is a better all around defenseman then Byfuglien is. And I'll take MacDinald over Byfuglien any day. No contest.

- MJL


You supplied numbers that show he's actually a pretty good possession player, given the circumstances and teammates he has...and still managed to totally misrepresent the stats you did use.

Maybe you just don't know how to properly use the stats. Maybe it's because you just prefer stating opinions without any factual basis because then it's harder to prove you wrong.

However, you were the first one to actually use stats in this situation, and the stats you did use to try and prove how great MacDonald was actually showed he isn't that great.

But, putting those aside, you say that the Flyers are using MacDonald right. Well, they are using him as a 4th defenseman. He's mainly playing with Luke Schenn, on a third pair, but has been slotted up and down the units and seeing more ice time at even strength so Kimmo Timonen is fresher.

Is a 4th defenseman worth $5mm per year?
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Apr 11 @ 1:42 PM ET
Has anyone mentioned Matt Carle's Matt Carle moment last night?
Flyers_V88
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ajax, ON
Joined: 02.26.2013

Apr 11 @ 1:43 PM ET
I'm ready to pay him $4.5m a year for four years. Last night when paired with Streit his CF% was thru the roof. It's just one game, but he gets a lot poop for a low CF% by people who happily ignore he's spent most of his time here paired with LSchenn. I still like Luke but he's an offensive black hole most of the time.

I also have interest in Buff, but he's 29 and only has two years left on his contract and Winnipeg will not give him away cheaply. I wouldn't trade BSchenn+ for him.

- Feanor

I think it's become apparent that even giving MacD $5 mil is a bargain for his services. His play has been quite refreshing for the Flyers.
JFlyers00
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: NYC (kill me) , NJ
Joined: 11.24.2011

Apr 11 @ 1:43 PM ET
Big Buff does come off as a big turd but that's one I'd love to have on this team if the price is right.

I don't get how anyone could immediately dismiss him right off the bat. He can play and would be an asset to this team. I'd trade Amac for him in a heart beat.
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Apr 11 @ 1:43 PM ET
I really hope the Flyers drop to the first wild card slot.

Much rather the Penguins in the first round than the Rangers.

It sounds crazy considering the talent on the Pens, but the Rangers play a style of hockey that the Flyers seem completely incapable of figuring out. Tampa does the same crap to the Flyers each game as well, but are a tad less physical.

To start the day, i'd also like to throw out a crazy trade proposal.

To Wash:
B. Schenn
Laughton
2016 1st Rd Pick
Bag of Cash

To Phil:
Ovechkin

Turn him into a Left Winger and go Ovechkin/Giroux/Voracek

Go ahead, kill my dream.

- Flyersgod

i don't want ovechkin near this team i think he's a cancer now
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Apr 11 @ 1:44 PM ET
Buff is exciting to watch and would make a great flyer. Does it really matter if he's labeled a #1 or not?
- moylander



Absolutely. With the situation the Flyers are in, and in looking at all the factors. The Flyers can't afford to give up both considerable player assets and devote considerable cap assets to another offensive defenseman, that shouldn't be used against top player and top lines in key defensive situations in games. it has a funnel down effect on the rest of the defense. And will cause other players to be mis-used.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Apr 11 @ 1:47 PM ET
I'm ready to pay him $4.5m a year for four years. Last night when paired with Streit his CF% was thru the roof. It's just one game, but he gets a lot poop for a low CF% by people who happily ignore he's spent most of his time here paired with LSchenn. I still like Luke but he's an offensive black hole most of the time.

I also have interest in Buff, but he's 29 and only has two years left on his contract and Winnipeg will not give him away cheaply. I wouldn't trade BSchenn+ for him.

- Feanor


I'm going to have to accept whatever they decide to pay him. I also happen to like MacDonald. He's a sold 4/5 defenseman who can step up and play more minutes and help on special teams a bit. He's not a bad player at all.

But I don't think he's worth much more than $3.8-$4mm. Sure the market dictates that he'll get more, but given the other available names out there in UFA, he can be replaced and probably for less money.

I agree, I wouldn't trade Schenn for Byfuglien, either. Nobody here has even hinted that they should pay a huge price for Byfuglien. The very reason he was brought up was that the Jets might be desperate to make a shake up move.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Apr 11 @ 1:48 PM ET
Has anyone mentioned Matt Carle's Matt Carle moment last night?
- PhillySportsGuy


Everyone on twitter did when it happened. I was laughing so hard I missed the breakaway
five4fighting10
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Cherry Hill, NJ
Joined: 02.22.2008

Apr 11 @ 1:49 PM ET
You supplied numbers that show he's actually a pretty good possession player, given the circumstances and teammates he has...and still managed to totally misrepresent the stats you did use.

Maybe you just don't know how to properly use the stats. Maybe it's because you just prefer stating opinions without any factual basis because then it's harder to prove you wrong.

However, you were the first one to actually use stats in this situation, and the stats you did use to try and prove how great MacDonald was actually showed he isn't that great.

But, putting those aside, you say that the Flyers are using MacDonald right. Well, they are using him as a 4th defenseman. He's mainly playing with Luke Schenn, on a third pair, but has been slotted up and down the units and seeing more ice time at even strength so Kimmo Timonen is fresher.

Is a 4th defenseman worth $5mm per year?

- Jsaquella

I had my own thoughts to weigh in on Byfuglien vs MacDonald, but yeah, I decided to delete them. You'll never be able to get someone to admit they were wrong. All else equal, someone is nuts to choose MacDonald over Byfuglien and that's coming from a Byfuglien hater (me). Obviously all else isn't equal, but that's besides the point.
Tomahawk
Ottawa Senators
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Apr 11 @ 1:49 PM ET
Be his conclusion is correct, because more than death, he fears being proven wrong.
- Jsaquella



I guess it's too much to ask for a vehement critic of something to have at least a cursory understanding of what it is they're railing against?
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Apr 11 @ 1:49 PM ET
I'm going to have to accept whatever they decide to pay him. I also happen to like MacDonald. He's a sold 4/5 defenseman who can step up and play more minutes and help on special teams a bit. He's not a bad player at all.

But I don't think he's worth much more than $3.8-$4mm. Sure the market dictates that he'll get more, but given the other available names out there in UFA, he can be replaced and probably for less money.

I agree, I wouldn't trade Schenn for Byfuglien, either. Nobody here has even hinted that they should pay a huge price for Byfuglien. The very reason he was brought up was that the Jets might be desperate to make a shake up move.

- Jsaquella


IMO, the max I'd offer for MacDonald is 5 years, 22.5 million, 4.5 million cap hit.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Apr 11 @ 1:49 PM ET
You supplied numbers that show he's actually a pretty good possession player, given the circumstances and teammates he has...and still managed to totally misrepresent the stats you did use.

Maybe you just don't know how to properly use the stats. Maybe it's because you just prefer stating opinions without any factual basis because then it's harder to prove you wrong.

However, you were the first one to actually use stats in this situation, and the stats you did use to try and prove how great MacDonald was actually showed he isn't that great.

But, putting those aside, you say that the Flyers are using MacDonald right. Well, they are using him as a 4th defenseman. He's mainly playing with Luke Schenn, on a third pair, but has been slotted up and down the units and seeing more ice time at even strength so Kimmo Timonen is fresher.

Is a 4th defenseman worth $5mm per year?

- Jsaquella



No I was not the first one to use to the stats. Stating that he is a good possession player, is based on the stats and on Corsi. But if it wants to be pretended that it's not, that's fine.

If you want to go into an indepth conversation on Corsi or any other advanced stat, we can do that. And find out who knows what they're talking about. But that's already been done back during the persecution of Grossmann, and all the false conclusions that were drawn there. But I don't see what purpose that would solve. Just beating a dead horse.

And yes, MacDonald is absolutely worth 5M in my opinion, as a solid all around 2nd pairing defenseman. Because that's what a player like MacDonald would cost you on the open market. Now a lot of names will be thrown around and labeled as cheaper and just as good. But we've had that discussion before, and I disagree with the alternate suggestions given. I like 4.5M as a good deal, but would be willing to go to 5.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Apr 11 @ 1:51 PM ET
I had my own thoughts to weigh in on Byfuglien vs MacDonald, but yeah, I decided to delete them. You'll never be able to get someone to admit they were wrong. All else equal, someone is nuts to choose MacDonald over Byfuglien and that's coming from a Byfuglien hater (me). Obviously all else isn't equal, but that's besides the point.
- five4fighting10


Byfuglien has his faults but at a cap hit for 2 more years at 5.3 million, I would absolutely take him over MacDonald who is most likely going to be carrying a cap hit next year in the neighborhood of 4.5 million.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Apr 11 @ 1:51 PM ET
I had my own thoughts to weigh in on Byfuglien vs MacDonald, but yeah, I decided to delete them. You'll never be able to get someone to admit they were wrong. All else equal, someone is nuts to choose MacDonald over Byfuglien and that's coming from a Byfuglien hater (me). Obviously all else isn't equal, but that's besides the point.
- five4fighting10


Honestly, If I get proven wrong, I'll admit it. I have done it in the past and will do it again in the future.

Nobody likes it, but everyone makes mistakes.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Apr 11 @ 1:51 PM ET
I'm going to have to accept whatever they decide to pay him. I also happen to like MacDonald. He's a sold 4/5 defenseman who can step up and play more minutes and help on special teams a bit. He's not a bad player at all.

But I don't think he's worth much more than $3.8-$4mm. Sure the market dictates that he'll get more, but given the other available names out there in UFA, he can be replaced and probably for less money.

I agree, I wouldn't trade Schenn for Byfuglien, either. Nobody here has even hinted that they should pay a huge price for Byfuglien. The very reason he was brought up was that the Jets might be desperate to make a shake up move.

- Jsaquella



A team desperate to make a move doesn't give a player away.
moylander
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Apr 11 @ 1:52 PM ET
Absolutely. With the situation the Flyers are in, and in looking at all the factors. The Flyers can't afford to give up both considerable player assets and devote considerable cap assets to another offensive defenseman, that shouldn't be used against top player and top lines in key defensive situations in games. it has a funnel down effect on the rest of the defense. And will cause other players to be mis-used.
- MJL


Hard to argue with a guy that would take amac over buff...
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Apr 11 @ 1:53 PM ET
Everyone on twitter did when it happened. I was laughing so hard I missed the breakaway
- Jsaquella


It was a great moment. I just wish Hall scored.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Apr 11 @ 1:54 PM ET
No I was not the first one to use to the stats. Stating that he is a good possession player, is based on the stats and on Corsi. But if it wants to be pretended that it's not, that's fine.

If you want to go into an indepth conversation on Corsi or any other advanced stat, we can do that. And find out who knows what they're talking about. But that's already been done back during the persecution of Grossmann, and all the false conclusions that were drawn there. But I don't see what purpose that would solve. Just beating a dead horse.

And yes, MacDonald is absolutely worth 5M in my opinion, as a solid all around 2nd pairing defenseman. Because that's what a player like MacDonald would cost you on the open market. Now a lot of names will be thrown around and labeled as cheaper and just as good. But we've had that discussion before, and I disagree with the alternate suggestions given. I like 4.5M as a good deal, but would be willing to go to 5.

- MJL


Nobody used stats, they mentioned he was a better possession player, which you proved when you posted the stats.

So, thanks for that, always good to have my point made for me.

And again, your opinion is noted, and has been widely disagreed with.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Apr 11 @ 1:56 PM ET
Hard to argue with a guy that would take amac over buff...
- moylander



Those goals and assists are in bright lights. But need to see the warts.
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Apr 11 @ 1:56 PM ET
So how many Brayden Schenns is it going to take?

/fires up the clone machine

- Tomahawk


"Hi, Mr. and Mrs. Schenn? Um, yes.....this is.....awkward....."
five4fighting10
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Cherry Hill, NJ
Joined: 02.22.2008

Apr 11 @ 1:56 PM ET
Byfuglien has his faults but at a cap hit for 2 more years at 5.3 million, I would absolutely take him over MacDonald who is most likely going to be carrying a cap hit next year in the neighborhood of 4.5 million.
- BiggE

Exactly. I can't stand Byfuglien. I don't like athletes who have weight issues and who's effort gets questioned at times. But I'd still take Buff at 5.3 over Mac at 4.5-5. Of course, once you tell me I have to trade for Buff that goes out the window when I hear what the Jets want (most likely)

Edit: Buff is far from an ideal player in my eyes, but he would be an improvement nonetheless.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Apr 11 @ 1:57 PM ET
A team desperate to make a move doesn't give a player away.
- MJL


But desperate teams often make ill-advised trades...like trading Ryan McDonagh and Chris Higgins for Scott Gomez.

If the price is too high, you don't make the trade. Pretty much every single person who advocated for Byfuglien noted that they wouldn't be willing to trade a lot to get him and if he costs more than you're willing to give, you move on to the next option.
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