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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Hextall's View on Analytics and Roster Building
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BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

May 8 @ 1:13 PM ET
He out scored Mike Richards in all but his first junior season when he was used sparingly. Richards never had a 40 goal junior season.


Are you okay?

- mayorofangrytown


I think Laughton could end up anywhere between:
Solid 2nd line center, who puts up 20+ goals and 60 points while being the teams top guy on PK and working on the 2nd unit PP
to
Solid 3rd line center who puts up 15+ goals and 40-45 points while still being a key guy on the PK and an occasional fill-in on the PP

I really don't see much if any, chance that he will be a bust. The Flyers track record of selecting forwards in the first round over the last decade or so is excellent.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

May 8 @ 1:13 PM ET
I thought he trained part of the off season with G...
- FlyersGrace


I have read that, and I've always felt Giroux's conditioning was totally fine. I thought Akeson's conditioning appeared to be totally fine, as well, during the playoffs.

The deal I'm talking about, and what I think BiggE's referring to, is his on-the-puck play, and his ability to go get it on the forecheck.

I think Akeson competes for pucks, and that's good. But it'll be tough for him to stick if he consistently loses puck battles or can't get in on the forecheck to begin with.

It's...tricky. He's not a horrific skater, and he makes up for some of it through hockey sense. But if he consistently loses puck battles because of his core strength...that might be a killer for him, if the organization isn't sold on him.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

May 8 @ 1:14 PM ET
Sorry, but Akeson just looks like the kind of guy who will get exposed the more you use him. I really don't see him ever being more than an AHL star/NHL spare forward who can fill in for a short time on a scoring line.
His lack of footspeed and strength are just 2 big red flags for me and I don't think that his smarts and skill level are at a level that's high enough to overcome his flaws.

- BiggE


He played well with the third line. I would like to see him get a chance. My opinion of him differs than yours, but I think we both can agree he deserves a chance next season. They shouldn't just write him off.
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

May 8 @ 1:15 PM ET
He out scored Mike Richards in all but his first junior season when he was used sparingly. Richards never had a 40 goal junior season.


Are you okay?

- mayorofangrytown


Not sure where you're getting your numbers, but here's a point per game breakdown for each player:

Richards
Age 16: 0.89 per game
Age 17: 1.30 per game
Age 18: 1.53 per game
Age 19: 1.35 per game

Laughton
Age 16: 0.37 per game
Age 17: 0.83 per game
Age 18: 1.14 per game
Age 19: 1.61 per game

A huge disparity in Richards favor, imo.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

May 8 @ 1:16 PM ET
I have read that, and I've always felt Giroux's conditioning was totally fine. I thought Akeson's conditioning appeared to be totally fine, as well, during the playoffs.

The deal I'm talking about, and what I think BiggE's referring to, is his on-the-puck play, and his ability to go get it on the forecheck.

I think Akeson competes for pucks, and that's good. But it'll be tough for him to stick if he consistently loses puck battles or can't get in on the forecheck to begin with.

It's...tricky. He's not a horrific skater, and he makes up for some of it through hockey sense. But if he consistently loses puck battles because of his core strength...that might be a killer for him, if the organization isn't sold on him.

- AllInForFlyers[/
quote]

Exactly
If he can't use speed to get seperation nor have enough strength to win his share of puck battles, his skill and smarts will not be enough for him to succeed at the NHL level. Not sure how much he can improve his skating at this point, but he MUST get stronger if he is going to make it for the long haul.
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

May 8 @ 1:16 PM ET
Laughing at my post when I was saying I could see him being successful in the near future usually doesn't mean you agree with me. It usually means the other person thinks what I said was completely wrong.
- FlyersSteve118

I don't agree that it will take two or three years. I wasn't busting your chops, it was semi-sarcastic.
Tomahawk
Ottawa Senators
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

May 8 @ 1:16 PM ET
He's a battler though. I wouldn't completely discount him although I do tend to think along your line.
- mayorofangrytown



Yeah, a lot of the Flyers' better prospects over the years haven't been the biggest, fastest guys... but there is a through-line of a battler/determined mentality that is really hard to repress.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

May 8 @ 1:17 PM ET
He played well with the third line. I would like to see him get a chance. My opinion of him differs than yours, but I think we both can agree he deserves a chance next season. They shouldn't just write him off.
- PhillySportsGuy


Absolutely, give him a fair shot in camp for sure, but I don't think you can just pencil him in and hand him a spot.
FlyersSteve118
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Delco, PA
Joined: 10.02.2013

May 8 @ 1:17 PM ET
That's ok. I just don't see his fit moving forward. His skill set doesn't lend itself to the bottom six and yes he is productive but as he ages are his skills going to decline where he is more of a hinderence. I would just rather bet that in the future he isn't going to produce as much as he just did and would like a younger faster option.
- J35Bacher


Oh so give away your talent while it is still good for fear that it probably won't last? That doesn't make much sense.
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

May 8 @ 1:19 PM ET
His deal expires just as he turns 37. Its not ideal, but they dont have him signed into his 40s.
- PhillySportsGuy



I know but Bertuzzi is the same type of player. He is 39. He hasn't been an impact player for some time
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

May 8 @ 1:20 PM ET
Not sure where you're getting your numbers, but here's a point per game breakdown for each player:

Richards
Age 16: 0.89 per game
Age 17: 1.30 per game
Age 18: 1.53 per game
Age 19: 1.35 per game

Laughton
Age 16: 0.37 per game
Age 17: 0.83 per game
Age 18: 1.14 per game
Age 19: 1.61 per game

A huge disparity in Richards favor, imo.

- bradleyc4

I don't see that difference in play. Of course Richards didn't play half the game on defense either.

Richards
58 pts, 50 pts, 53 pts, 36 pts

Laughton
23 pts, 53 pts, 56 pts, 87 pts
FlyersGrace
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Pronger "Play the game puffnuts!" , DE
Joined: 07.02.2012

May 8 @ 1:20 PM ET
I have read that, and I've always felt Giroux's conditioning was totally fine. I thought Akeson's conditioning appeared to be totally fine, as well, during the playoffs.

The deal I'm talking about, and what I think BiggE's referring to, is his on-the-puck play, and his ability to go get it on the forecheck.

I think Akeson competes for pucks, and that's good. But it'll be tough for him to stick if he consistently loses puck battles or can't get in on the forecheck to begin with.

It's...tricky. He's not a horrific skater, and he makes up for some of it through hockey sense. But if he consistently loses puck battles because of his core strength...that might be a killer for him, if the organization isn't sold on him.

- AllInForFlyers

So you're saying we should send him the 10-min abs video...
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

May 8 @ 1:20 PM ET
Absolutely, give him a fair shot in camp for sure, but I don't think you can just pencil him in and hand him a spot.
- BiggE


Thats why I think Raffl is such a nice player to have. If Akeson proves to be a good 2nd line player, Raffl can anchor the 4th line and make them a viable option in more situations.

If Akeson can't crack the lineup, Raffl can be moved up to a 2nd or 3rd line role.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

May 8 @ 1:21 PM ET
Oh so give away your talent while it is still good for fear that it probably won't last? That doesn't make much sense.
- FlyersSteve118


Well you trade it, nobody is saying give it away
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

May 8 @ 1:21 PM ET

Exactly
If he can't use speed to get seperation nor have enough strength to win his share of puck battles, his skill and smarts will not be enough for him to succeed at the NHL level. Not sure how much he can improve his skating at this point, but he MUST get stronger if he is going to make it for the long haul.

- BiggE


I think he can probably improve his "burst" speed -- he's young enough to do that, I think. I've seen enough guys to that, at his age, to make me believe he might be able to. That would certainly help.

It's just gonna take work. From what I read, the kind of grueling work that isn't always fun to do and definitely will show what kind of mindset he has.
Moose_15
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Rat Patrol, PA
Joined: 02.15.2013

May 8 @ 1:21 PM ET
I know but Bertuzzi is the same type of player. He is 39. He hasn't been an impact player for some time
- J35Bacher



Has there ever been a season where the HB faithful did not want to trade Hartnell?
FlyersSteve118
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Delco, PA
Joined: 10.02.2013

May 8 @ 1:22 PM ET
I don't agree that it will take two or three years. I wasn't busting your chops, it was semi-sarcastic.
- mayorofangrytown


Oh I just see him as our fourth line center and possibly the 3rd line center. If we didn't have a logjam at center, I could see him being a candidate for the #2 spot, but realistically he will have to prove himself first. He only gets the number 3 spot if BOTH of vinny and schenn are dealt in the offseason. I don't see management skipping over couturier after how much heavy lifting he has done for this team.
aightwebang17
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Typical Montreal, PA
Joined: 07.10.2008

May 8 @ 1:22 PM ET
I don't see that difference in play. Of course Richards didn't play half the game on defense either.

Richards
58 pts, 50 pts, 53 pts, 36 pts

Laughton
23 pts, 53 pts, 56 pts, 87 pts

- mayorofangrytown

You are looking at the assist column for those three years. Richards point totals in juniors were:

58
87
89
58
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

May 8 @ 1:22 PM ET
Oh so give away your talent while it is still good for fear that it probably won't last? That doesn't make much sense.
- FlyersSteve118



Yeah it does. You sell why there is still value before you can't move him. It's not like I am trading a 26 year old player. You have your thinking and I have mine. I just think there a better fits and would be proactive in making the move. It not because he didn't produce this year or because I hate him. just looking at the future and feel he is not going to get better as he ages and could move him while there is some value.
FlyersGrace
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Pronger "Play the game puffnuts!" , DE
Joined: 07.02.2012

May 8 @ 1:22 PM ET
I don't see that difference in play. Of course Richards didn't play half the game on defense either.

Richards
58 pts, 50 pts, 53 pts, 36 pts

Laughton
23 pts, 53 pts, 56 pts, 87 pts

- mayorofangrytown

I like Laughton's improvement year over year. That's impressive in it's own right. I look forward to seeing him play and I'm ok if that's with the Phantoms for a year.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

May 8 @ 1:22 PM ET
I know but Bertuzzi is the same type of player. He is 39. He hasn't been an impact player for some time
- J35Bacher


If Hartnell isn't an effective player for the last year of his deal then so be it. 5 years from now, his cap hit may be that of a 3rd line player anyway. It may not hurt the team as much as you think. Look what Clarkson got. Thats the type of deal Hartnell was looking at too. At least Hartnell is effective NOW.
FlyersGrace
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Pronger "Play the game puffnuts!" , DE
Joined: 07.02.2012

May 8 @ 1:23 PM ET
Well you trade it, nobody is saying give it away
- Just5

This line taken out of context is fascinating.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

May 8 @ 1:23 PM ET
So you're saying we should send him the 10-min abs video...

- FlyersGrace


Ha! That young man better be sleeping in the gym this summer! If he does that, I do think he has a chance -- and when you're undrafted, sometimes that's all you can ask.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

May 8 @ 1:24 PM ET
You are looking at the assist column for those three years. Richards point totals in juniors were:

58
87
89
58

- aightwebang17


Its difficult to evaluate both players based solely on points anyway. I dont know about Richards, but Laughton was being used in a shutdown role for much of the season. He wasn't given the opportunity to play with Dal Colle a lot. If he was, his numbers would be much higher.
aightwebang17
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Typical Montreal, PA
Joined: 07.10.2008

May 8 @ 1:26 PM ET
Its difficult to evaluate both players based solely on points anyway. I dont know about Richards, but Laughton was being used in a shutdown role for much of the season. He wasn't given the opportunity to play with Dal Colle a lot. If he was, his numbers would be much higher.
- PhillySportsGuy

Point taken sir. No need to yell.
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