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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Jump in the Fire
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Tomahawk
Ottawa Senators
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 23 @ 4:28 PM ET
I'm not; I think it's net neutral. You might get 15-20 more points with Hartnell, but Umberger will take fewer penalties and play more disciplined hockey

I think it's gonna be net neutral, as early as next season

- AllInForFlyers



That's how I see it. Umberger's a better fit for a team that is looking to play within a strict system. He might create 5-10 fewer goals for his team, but he'll likely make it back defensively/PK.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jun 23 @ 4:29 PM ET
Why did they just give up assets to get a player that was about to be bought out and could have cost them absolutely nothing if they just waited a week?
- FlyersSteve118


Because you still have Hartnell's contract and maybe you really wanted it gone before decline set in and you couldn't move it
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jun 23 @ 4:29 PM ET
It is funny that everyone wants the Flyers to start planning for the future instead of WIN NOW and now that they actually did it people are like" wait, no!!!!"
- J35Bacher


There's obviously no gray area if you look at it that way. It all comes down to whether or not you believe this trade has made the team better both now and in the future and if the return outweighs what we gave up. I believe it does not.

But if that's how you wanna do it in a black and white sense, the best-case scenario is to trade every player we have over 20 years old for picks, sign a bunch of terrible players so we finish in last place for 3 years and then try to ice a team of young super stars and hope that it works before they all need their 2nd contracts.
coffee junkie
Joined: 02.25.2007

Jun 23 @ 4:29 PM ET
This is the type of thing I was referring to Matt Henderson on this site: UMBERGER – HARTNELL

New GM Ron Hextall’s first major move turns out to be a real head-scratcher as he chased out his club’s 4th leading scorer and 50 point guy Hartnell for a floundering RJ Umberger. The Oilers have been linked to both players on and off with most Oiler fans hoping to avoid Umberger while the majority of plugged in sources kept honing in on that name. Umberger and Hartnell have similar Cap Hits (less than a million apart) and both are associated with “physical” play but the similarities end there. Aaron Portzline continues to assert that the Blue Jackets were heavily contemplating a Compliance Buyout on Umberger as his Cap Hit far exceeded his contributions to the team.

Now you COULD just conclude the comparison at Hartnell’s 52 points to Umberger’s 34 and walk away knowing you had a pretty solid victory. But then you would miss out on the chance to gloat about the fact that Hartnell is one of the best possession players on Philly (+6.2% Corsi Rel) and Umberger is one of the worst for Columbus (-4.5% Corsi Rel). Umberger, as signaled by what was his impending buyout, is an anchor in the worst sense of the word.

As an Oiler fan I’m just glad we dodged a bullet.
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

Jun 23 @ 4:29 PM ET
Why did they just give up assets to get a player that was about to be bought out and could have cost them absolutely nothing if they just waited a week?
- FlyersSteve118



It isn't about just getting umberger it is also about moving Hartnell
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jun 23 @ 4:30 PM ET
Do the Flyers value Umberger that much ? If so why not wait till he's bought out and sign him for 2m
- Winning

I think they value the idea of getting rid of Hartnell and see Umberger and a pick as a decent return that helps the team.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jun 23 @ 4:31 PM ET
It isn't about just getting umberger it is also about moving Hartnell
- J35Bacher


So taking one a bad contract for a bad player in exhange for a bad contract for a good (not great) player is a win because you can have money when Claude Giroux is past his prime? I know you like looking at cap options in the future, but I'm also looking at the on-ice product for the next 3 years.
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Jun 23 @ 4:32 PM ET
Why did they just give up assets to get a player that was about to be bought out and could have cost them absolutely nothing if they just waited a week?
- FlyersSteve118


The gist of the deal is that they "traded" the last two years of Scott Hartnell's contract for a rapidly declining player and a 4th round pick.

You got the last two years of Hartnell's contract back and a 4th round pick. That's it.

In in the interim, you have a hole in the top 6 to plug and, quite possibly, the most overpriced bottom 6th player this side of Vinny Lecavalier (whom, btw, is also employed the Flyers).

Just typing that out, I need a drink.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jun 23 @ 4:33 PM ET
The gist of the deal is that they "traded" the last two years of Scott Hartnell's contract for a rapidly declining player and a 4th round pick.

You got the last two years of Hartnell's contract back and a 4th round pick. That's it.

In in the interim, you have a hole in the top 6 to plug and, quite possibly, the most overpriced bottom 6th player this side of Vinny Lecavalier (whom, btw, is also employed the Flyers).

Just typing that out, I need a drink.

- johndewar


But dude, in 3 years we'll have cap space. Pure 100% win.
FlyersSteve118
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Delco, PA
Joined: 10.02.2013

Jun 23 @ 4:33 PM ET
Because you still have Hartnell's contract and maybe you really wanted it gone before decline set in and you couldn't move it
- AllInForFlyers


Hartnell could have easily gotten us a second rounder or even a first. Than just sign RJ in free agency. We get rid of Harts cap hit and reduce the Umberger cap hit significantly.
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Jun 23 @ 4:34 PM ET
This situation now call for one man to step up and make his claim to the Flyers' Top 6:



/Team Art Ross Akeson
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jun 23 @ 4:35 PM ET
This situation now call for one man to step up and make his claim to the Flyers' Top 6:



/Team Art Ross Akeson

- johndewar


It actually really is. If he can step up and produce consistently, it will go a long way.
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jun 23 @ 4:35 PM ET
This situation now call for one man to step up and make his claim to the Flyers' Top 6:



/Team Art Ross Akeson

- johndewar


I'm hoping said man isn't on the roster as of yet.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jun 23 @ 4:36 PM ET
Hartnell could have easily gotten us a second rounder or even a first. Than just sign RJ in free agency. We get rid of Harts cap hit and reduce the Umberger cap hit significantly.
- FlyersSteve118


I honestly do not believe it is that simple -- there are no deals like that out there for a 32-year-old PF with five years left on his contract with an NMC

That deal isn't there. Not for a first or a second. It's just not there.

If we go back and look at the deals made since the lockout ended, we're gonna find that deal isn't there
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Jun 23 @ 4:36 PM ET
Hartnell could have easily gotten us a second rounder or even a first. Than just sign RJ in free agency. We get rid of Harts cap hit and reduce the Umberger cap hit significantly.
- FlyersSteve118


Nobody was giving up a 1st rounder for that contract and an undisciplined player. Hextall obviously would let people know Hartnell was available. Hartnell held all the cards. He wasn't waiving his no trade to go just anywhere. Columbus keeps him in the region and they are a contender.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jun 23 @ 4:38 PM ET
I honestly do not believe it is that simple -- there are no deals like that out there for a 32-year-old PF with five years left on his contract with an NMC

That deal isn't there. Not for a first or a second. It's just not there.

If we go back and look at the deals made since the lockout ended, we're gonna find that deal isn't there

- AllInForFlyers


Douglas Murray got 2 second round picks when he was 32. He's basically Hartnell on defense.
FlyersSteve118
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Delco, PA
Joined: 10.02.2013

Jun 23 @ 4:38 PM ET
The gist of the deal is that they "traded" the last two years of Scott Hartnell's contract for a rapidly declining player and a 4th round pick.

You got the last two years of Hartnell's contract back and a 4th round pick. That's it.

In in the interim, you have a hole in the top 6 to plug and, quite possibly, the most overpriced bottom 6th player this side of Vinny Lecavalier (whom, btw, is also employed the Flyers).

Just typing that out, I need a drink.

- johndewar


You forgot Umberger will play a bottom 6 role as well and makes more than VL! How did we not at least get CBJ to eat some of the cap hit for RJ. Can that kind of information not be released right away? Maybe? Please?
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jun 23 @ 4:40 PM ET
Douglas Murray got 2 second round picks when he was 32. He's basically Hartnell on defense.
- jmatchett383


The difference there is that they weren't four more years.

Since the cap came in, it's a new way of doing business. Extra years on the wrong side of 30 cost you when you are trying to move a player
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jun 23 @ 4:40 PM ET
You forgot Umberger will play a bottom 6 role as well and makes more than VL! How did we not at least get CBJ to eat some of the cap hit for RJ. Can that kind of information not be released right away? Maybe? Please?
- FlyersSteve118


No cap retained was reported earlier.
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Jun 23 @ 4:41 PM ET
It actually really is. If he can step up and produce consistently, it will go a long way.
- jmatchett383


I invoked the Art Ross Akeson joke, but honestly, this is a shot for a guy who we were always told could only last in a top 6 role.

Well, as I understand it, there's now an opening.
Sms401
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Kenmore , NY
Joined: 07.28.2011

Jun 23 @ 4:41 PM ET
Carchidi on nhl tonight last night. " I don't see hextall making any major moves". Next day. Major move.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jun 23 @ 4:42 PM ET
The difference there is that they weren't four more years.

Since the cap came in, it's a new way of doing business. Extra years on the wrong side of 30 cost you when you are trying to move a player

- AllInForFlyers


Okay. Now a power forward, but a guy who was even worse: Scott Gomez to Montreal. He was 30 at the time.
FlyersSteve118
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Delco, PA
Joined: 10.02.2013

Jun 23 @ 4:42 PM ET
Nobody was giving up a 1st rounder for that contract and an undisciplined player. Hextall obviously would let people know Hartnell was available. Hartnell held all the cards. He wasn't waiving his no trade to go just anywhere. Columbus keeps him in the region and they are a contender.
- jstross


There has to be something more to this deal. It just doesn't make any sense. How is a consistent 20 goal scorer not worth a second round pick? Especially when he shows literally 0 signs of aging.
hockeylover
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: There's always next year., NT
Joined: 08.03.2006

Jun 23 @ 4:42 PM ET
Hope someone asks him why he feels Columbus gives him a better chance to win than the Flyers do. I'm interested in hearing his answer to that.
- PLindbergh31


He's hoping to parley that into a Jeff Carter trade to LA to be another Flyer who wins a cup after leaving the team.
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Jun 23 @ 4:43 PM ET
This is the type of thing I was referring to Matt Henderson on this site: UMBERGER – HARTNELL

New GM Ron Hextall’s first major move turns out to be a real head-scratcher as he chased out his club’s 4th leading scorer and 50 point guy Hartnell for a floundering RJ Umberger. The Oilers have been linked to both players on and off with most Oiler fans hoping to avoid Umberger while the majority of plugged in sources kept honing in on that name. Umberger and Hartnell have similar Cap Hits (less than a million apart) and both are associated with “physical” play but the similarities end there. Aaron Portzline continues to assert that the Blue Jackets were heavily contemplating a Compliance Buyout on Umberger as his Cap Hit far exceeded his contributions to the team.

Now you COULD just conclude the comparison at Hartnell’s 52 points to Umberger’s 34 and walk away knowing you had a pretty solid victory. But then you would miss out on the chance to gloat about the fact that Hartnell is one of the best possession players on Philly (+6.2% Corsi Rel) and Umberger is one of the worst for Columbus (-4.5% Corsi Rel). Umberger, as signaled by what was his impending buyout, is an anchor in the worst sense of the word.

As an Oiler fan I’m just glad we dodged a bullet.

- coffee junkie


RJ's fancy stats don't bother me.

He played on some horrible Columbus teams.

I just think he's a shot player.
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