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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Flyers Farm System Review: 2014 Off-Season
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mmcclatchy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Asheville, NC
Joined: 06.13.2014

Jul 12 @ 11:56 AM ET
I actually agree with you regarding Vinnie. The problem is their best two wingers, Simmonds and Jake, also play better on the right side. I'm not really qualified to say if either could play on the left, but I don't think you bump either to the 3rd line.

I don't see them ever trying this, but if they kept Vinnie I'm curious about whether this line-up would work:

Simmonds - G - Vinnie
Raffl - Schenn - Jake
Umberger - Couturier - Read

Simmonds game seems more easily moved to the other side than Jake's. I'd worry a little bit about speed and defense with 1st line, but Jagr wasn't exactly Lightning McQueen either and played quite well with Giroux. He could protect the puck better than Vinnie though.

Jake would really complement Schenn, in my opinion. He could carry the puck, let Raffl do some of the dirty work along boards as well. Schenn could occupy the middle and play closer to the net.

- TheGreat28


I, of course, could be incorrect, but I'm pretty sure both Simmonds and Jake do not play on the left side. I've read specific quotes about Jake not feeling comfortable at all on the left. Simmonds has only played RW in his career. This is the problem with Vinny on the wing. He's only okay being on the right side of the ice, but that's where all the wing depth the Flyers have is located.

If the Flyers are stuck with Vinny for the season, I'm of the opinion that he should be put in a favorable position so that the chances of his trade value go up significantly. After July 2, 2015 his contract is a bargain for teams needing to get to the floor. The drawback is Couts having less offense around him for another year and probably needing him to break away from Read. I know this is a really unpopular idea here, but this is how I could see it play out.

Schenn / Giroux / Vorachek
Read / Vinny / Simmonds
Raffl / Couts / Umberger

For the record, I'm not in love with this idea, but it may end up being what works.
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jul 12 @ 11:57 AM ET
I don't want to forget that Bellemare is 29, so I have any expectation of him, if any at all.
- SuperSchennBros


Very true. To me these guys - Raffl, Akeson, Bellemare - are a dime a dozen. That's why you take a shot acquiring them as undrafted FA, which only cost you a roster spot, versus drafting them.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 12 @ 11:58 AM ET
Agreed. The best do. LA did quite well slotting Toffoli and Pearson into their lineup. Also, as Bill pointed out during the draft, the rich got richer when they drafted Kempe. Chicago has one of the better prospect pools in the NHL. So does Anaheim and Detroit. And Boston has decent talent in the system as well.

Yes, the Flyers cap situation will not prevent them from adding players on EL deals. Their lack of forward prospects or tradeable assets will. There is a reason we all have been debating their ability to sign Hayes today - he is the only legit talent they could acquire without giving up anything.

Unless they are going to trade away a young d prospect for a winger - which I think no one here would advocate at this point, they are more than likely going to have to live with what they got. Vinnie is not going to bring back a talented winger, and they seem reluctant to trade away Schenn or Couturier, who might. I'd seriously consider trading Couturier for a very high return, or Laughton for a more modest return provided it was a very skilled winger with high upside. I still see Laughton and Couturier as occupying the same role - 3rd line center.

And as much as you want to argue that this is not a result of their lack of cap space, I don't agree.

- TheGreat28



I think cap space issues and not actually having the type of player your talking about is being confused. Because if they did have that kind of player, and they actually do in Laughton, the cap is not going to stop them from putting that player in the lineup.
Now if you want to argue that the Flyers didn't have a ton of cap space to sign a top free agent to add to the lineup, you might have a point. But that's got zero to do with drafting and developing young talent. You might not agree but a case hasn't been made that it's about a lack of cap space. And I know the cap as well as anyone.
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jul 12 @ 12:02 PM ET
I, of course, could be incorrect, but I'm pretty sure both Simmonds and Jake do not play on the left side. I've read specific quotes about Jake not feeling comfortable at all on the left. Simmonds has only played RW in his career. This is the problem with Vinny on the wing. He's only okay being on the right side of the ice, but that's where all the wing depth the Flyers have is located.

If the Flyers are stuck with Vinny for the season, I'm of the opinion that he should be put in a favorable position so that the chances of his trade value go up significantly. After July 2, 2015 his contract is a bargain for teams needing to get to the floor. The drawback is Couts having less offense around him for another year and probably needing him to break away from Read. I know this is a really unpopular idea here, but this is how I could see it play out.

Schenn / Giroux / Vorachek
Read / Vinny / Simmonds
Raffl / Couts / Umberger

For the record, I'm not in love with this idea, but it may end up being what works.

- mmcclatchy



I agree with your first paragraph. Regarding switching Simmonds to the left though, I'd say that this experiment would seem to have at least as good of a chance of working out as moving Schenn from center to wing, or Vinnie from center to wing.

But I'm definitely trying to make lemonade out of the lemon of a roster, admittedly, by suggesting the roster that I did. And before anyone jumps on me for calling their roster a lemon, I mean that not because of the players, but because of the mix of players. I still don't like the mix and chemistry of their forward ranks.
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jul 12 @ 12:03 PM ET
I want Claude Giroux at minimum to rival Sidney Crosby. I want Giroux's team to rival Crosby's team. This is more then us being able to beat the Penguins during the regular season. I want the Flyers to holding their own against any team every year. With this offseason I'll own up to being impatient but I don't get the feeling that we've gotten better. If Lecavalier gets traded, I don't get the feeling the return will make us better. I get more of the feeling that we were fine with the team we had entering the playoffs, we just needed a couple tweeks and add-ons.

Now I do have some hope. Many didn't like and probably still do not like the Talbot for Downie deal. I liked it a lot at the time. I feel that deal and the Emery fight turned our season around. It's a deals like those during the regular season that might really change my mind.
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jul 12 @ 12:08 PM ET
I think cap space issues and not actually having the type of player your talking about is being confused. Because if they did have that kind of player, and they actually do in Laughton, the cap is not going to stop them from putting that player in the lineup.
Now if you want to argue that the Flyers didn't have a ton of cap space to sign a top free agent to add to the lineup, you might have a point. But that's got zero to do with drafting and developing young talent. You might not agree but a case hasn't been made that it's about a lack of cap space. And I know the cap as well as anyone.

- MJL


Their lack of cap space is due to having not drafted well over the last several years and being forced to acquire players through trade or sign more highly-compensated FA. They lost picks over the last 5 years in those trades, and this has further weakened the prospect pool. It's a vicious cycle.

I think my point is validated by Hexy's statements and actions. They need to draft and develop players. It's the only way to break the cycle.
wolfhounds
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: dicky seamus, PA
Joined: 06.02.2009

Jul 12 @ 12:09 PM ET
Well said.

You see, if any of the players I've mentioned do not workout, we can shruge them off. We can replace them with something. At the same time we're placing them in the NHL and really seeing what happens. It's like throwing something at the wall and seeing what sticks. I'm not crazy about this approach.

- SuperSchennBros


Raffl 'stuck' last season. No reason to assume he won't get it done again. He's not a flashy player, he just works hard and is solid in all 3 zones. He's not going to forget how to play like that over the summer.

As for Bellemare, he's 29 years old, so he shouldn't be overwhelmed by the situation, has lots of experience under his belt, and should hopefully be able to adjust to North American hockey in short order.

Akeson is the wildcard to me as he apparently won't do well on the 3rd or 4th lines because of his defensive skills and I'm not sure he's talented enough for the top-six. But I guess we'll see.
Tomahawk
Ottawa Senators
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jul 12 @ 12:10 PM ET
If the Flyers are stuck with Vinny for the season, I'm of the opinion that he should be put in a favorable position so that the chances of his trade value go up significantly. After July 2, 2015 his contract is a bargain for teams needing to get to the floor.
- mmcclatchy


I'm not really sure Vinny having a 50-point season or a 40-point season really affects his trade value that much. The teams that would be interested in him July 2, 2015 for his cap-hit/salary difference aren't going to change much between now and then -- same limited market, same limited return -- he just goes from impossible to move, to difficult to move.

I'd be more interested in putting together the lineup that gives them the best chance to win every night... if that means Vinny at 2C, so be it. If it means Vinny eating popcorn, so be it.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 12 @ 12:11 PM ET
Very true. To me these guys - Raffl, Akeson, Bellemare - are a dime a dozen. That's why you take a shot acquiring them as undrafted FA, which only cost you a roster spot, versus drafting them.
- TheGreat28


I wouldn't call Raffl a dime a dozen player. He proved to be a very valuable commodity last year. He played on all 4 lines and contributed on each line. He plays the PK too.

I think there would be a long list of teams lining up for his services if he was a FA this season.
Sms401
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Kenmore , NY
Joined: 07.28.2011

Jul 12 @ 12:12 PM ET
The more I look at this team, it's prospect pool, the more I'm convinced hexy wants a true rebuild. I'm all in favor of that. My hope is we don't trade assets or picks for players to try to make playoffs over the next 2 years. Some of those prospects will be here by then. I'm all in favor of trading players at trade deadline like kimmo,Amac, grossman,streit for picks. Usually can get nice return at deadline for vets.
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jul 12 @ 12:14 PM ET
I want Claude Giroux at minimum to rival Sidney Crosby. I want Giroux's team to rival Crosby's team. This is more then us being able to beat the Penguins during the regular season. I want the Flyers to holding their own against any team every year. With this offseason I'll own up to being impatient but I don't get the feeling that we've gotten better. If Lecavalier gets traded, I don't get the feeling the return will make us better. I get more of the feeling that we were fine with the team we had entering the playoffs, we just needed a couple tweeks and add-ons.

Now I do have some hope. Many didn't like and probably still do not like the Talbot for Downie deal. I liked it a lot at the time. I feel that deal and the Emery fight turned our season around. It's a deals like those during the regular season that might really change my mind.

- SuperSchennBros



I actually hated the Downie deal. To me, that deal personifies what was wrong with Holmgren's tenure, why he could not get them over the hump. Downie is a grinder, energy player with above average offensive talent. Yes, he has a little pop. But he is not a truly gifted player.

They needed to acquire someone with more skill. They needed someone who could have blossomed on the first line, or even the 2nd line. Now, realistically you would not have gotten this player in a one-for-one deal with Talbot. But in putting their eggs in the Downie basket and hoping this would work out, it precluded them from trying to orchestrate a bigger deal for a more highly-skilled player.

It's like my friend who has a crappy girlfriend, but rationalizes that a crappy GF is better than no GF at all. Not true, because she sucks up all his time that could be used to finding a better GF.
Sms401
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Kenmore , NY
Joined: 07.28.2011

Jul 12 @ 12:15 PM ET
I wouldn't call Raffl a dime a dozen player. He proved to be a very valuable commodity last year. He played on all 4 lines and contributed on each line. He plays the PK too.

I think there would be a long list of teams lining up for his services if he was a FA this season.

- PhillySportsGuy

Plus some in the organization believe his offensive upside is going up. I'm looking forward to seeing if he grows in the next 2 years
wolfhounds
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: dicky seamus, PA
Joined: 06.02.2009

Jul 12 @ 12:17 PM ET
I wouldn't call Raffl a dime a dozen player. He proved to be a very valuable commodity last year. He played on all 4 lines and contributed on each line. He plays the PK too.

I think there would be a long list of teams lining up for his services if he was a FA this season.

- PhillySportsGuy


Yeah, dime a dozen can't move among all 4 lines and not look out of place regardless of the role he is asked to play.
Sms401
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Kenmore , NY
Joined: 07.28.2011

Jul 12 @ 12:17 PM ET
I actually hated the Downie deal. To me, that deal personifies what was wrong with Holmgren's tenure, why he could not get them over the hump. Downie is a grinder, energy player with above average offensive talent. Yes, he has a little pop. But he is not a truly gifted player.

They needed to acquire someone with more skill. They needed someone who could have blossomed on the first line, or even the 2nd line. Now, realistically you would not have gotten this player in a one-for-one deal with Talbot. But in putting their eggs in the Downie basket and hoping this would work out, it precluded them from trying to orchestrate a bigger deal for a more highly-skilled player.

It's like my friend who has a crappy girlfriend, but rationalizes that a crappy GF is better than no GF at all. Not true, because she sucks up all his time that could be used to finding a better GF.

- TheGreat28
yep agree with this 100%. Just commit to the rebuild. No need to go for downie. Smarter move would have been to trade max for a pick or prospect with higher ceiling.
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jul 12 @ 12:18 PM ET
Raffl 'stuck' last season. No reason to assume he won't get it done again. He's not a flashy player, he just works hard and is solid in all 3 zones. He's not going to forget how to play like that over the summer.

As for Bellemare, he's 29 years old, so he shouldn't be overwhelmed by the situation, has lots of experience under his belt, and should hopefully be able to adjust to North American hockey in short order.

Akeson is the wildcard to me as he apparently won't do well on the 3rd or 4th lines because of his defensive skills and I'm not sure he's talented enough for the top-six. But I guess we'll see.

- wolfhounds

You don't know any of this to be a fact at all. It's the obvious scenario. He has to prove he can do it all over again. As many have stated, Raffl isn't a lock for the team in upcoming seasons.
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jul 12 @ 12:21 PM ET
I wouldn't call Raffl a dime a dozen player. He proved to be a very valuable commodity last year. He played on all 4 lines and contributed on each line. He plays the PK too.

I think there would be a long list of teams lining up for his services if he was a FA this season.

- PhillySportsGuy


Yes, he is a nice piece. But realistically you could find 50 guys in the NHL to perform his role. Go back to Bill's evaluations of him at the beginning of last season. A Patrick Thoreson type. Did he outpeform expectations? Yes, absolutely. But he is by no means irreplaceable.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 12 @ 12:22 PM ET
Plus some in the organization believe his offensive upside is going up. I'm looking forward to seeing if he grows in the next 2 years
- Sms401


I'm not sure how much better he can get offensively unless his shot improves. His numbers will get better with more time in the top 9 though.

I just like him as a player. I know people like to compare him to Nodl, but the level of consistency Raffl showed in year 1 was better than anything we ever saw from Nodl.
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jul 12 @ 12:22 PM ET
I actually hated the Downie deal. To me, that deal personifies what was wrong with Holmgren's tenure, why he could not get them over the hump. Downie is a grinder, energy player with above average offensive talent. Yes, he has a little pop. But he is not a truly gifted player.

They needed to acquire someone with more skill. They needed someone who could have blossomed on the first line, or even the 2nd line. Now, realistically you would not have gotten this player in a one-for-one deal with Talbot. But in putting their eggs in the Downie basket and hoping this would work out, it precluded them from trying to orchestrate a bigger deal for a more highly-skilled player.

It's like my friend who has a crappy girlfriend, but rationalizes that a crappy GF is better than no GF at all. Not true, because she sucks up all his time that could be used to finding a better GF.

- TheGreat28

I tend to disagree. One of the biggest questions entering last season was who would play with Sean Couturier or Matt Read. Simon Gagne could have been a good fit but I guess we'll never know. Dan Cleary was expected to sign here until the Red Wings made an offer. Max Talbot saw a little time there but it didn't work out. Steve Downie was the only option that turned out to be the perfect. Even when Downie got hurt and Raffl took over, it just wasn't the same. Even when Lecavalier saw some time there, it just didn't work.
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jul 12 @ 12:24 PM ET
I wouldn't call Raffl a dime a dozen player. He proved to be a very valuable commodity last year. He played on all 4 lines and contributed on each line. He plays the PK too.

I think there would be a long list of teams lining up for his services if he was a FA this season.

- PhillySportsGuy

Andreas Nodl did everything you just described during his time with the Flyers.
wolfhounds
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: dicky seamus, PA
Joined: 06.02.2009

Jul 12 @ 12:26 PM ET
You don't know any of this to be a fact at all. It's the obvious scenario. He has to prove he can do it all over again. As many have stated, Raffl isn't a lock for the team in upcoming seasons.
- SuperSchennBros


I'm 100 percent confident that very little said on this site is "fact". And, unlike some, I don't pretend what I say is 'truth', just opinion. But I'm quite confident Raffl is a lock for this upcoming season over players like Rinaldo, Akeson, Rosehill, etc. Beyond that, don't know, don't care. And yes, every single player across all of sports has to prove year in and year out they can get it done, or there will be changes.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 12 @ 12:26 PM ET
Yes, he is a nice piece. But realistically you could find 50 guys in the NHL to perform his role. Go back to Bill's evaluations of him at the beginning of last season. A Patrick Thoreson type. Did he outpeform expectations? Yes, absolutely. But he is by no means irreplaceable.
- TheGreat28


Bill likes to give conservative expectations for players. I think thats reasonable and much smarter than listing the player's ceiling. I, also, think Bill's expectations for Raffl are greater now than they were this time last year.

Look what Bill called Laughton in his blog this morning. He said he's likely to become a third line grinder. Thats pretty much the floor for Laughton imo. He could become that type of player, but he has some upside as well.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 12 @ 12:27 PM ET
Andreas Nodl did everything you just described during his time with the Flyers.
- SuperSchennBros


Nodl had 10 game stretches that rivaled Raffl's entire season. Take Nodl's best 10 game stretch as a Flyer and that was Raffl's entire season.
wolfhounds
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: dicky seamus, PA
Joined: 06.02.2009

Jul 12 @ 12:28 PM ET
Yes, he is a nice piece. But realistically you could find 50 guys in the NHL to perform his role. Go back to Bill's evaluations of him at the beginning of last season. A Patrick Thoreson type. Did he outpeform expectations? Yes, absolutely. But he is by no means irreplaceable.
- TheGreat28


Before the season started when he was expected to spend significant time in the AHL with the Phantoms?

If you could find 50 guys like Raffl, doing what he does and earning what he earns, we need to tell Hexy to sign one or two more to fill out the 4th line. Right?
Litepow
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.11.2014

Jul 12 @ 12:29 PM ET
I tend to disagree. One of the biggest questions entering last season was who would play with Sean Couturier or Matt Read. Simon Gagne could have been a good fit but I guess we'll never know. Dan Cleary was expected to sign here until the Red Wings made an offer. Max Talbot saw a little time there but it didn't work out. Steve Downie was the only option that turned out to be the perfect. Even when Downie got hurt and Raffl took over, it just wasn't the same. Even when Lecavalier saw some time there, it just didn't work.
- SuperSchennBros


Not to mention, most likely the primary purpose of the trade was to shed salary for this year considering Talbot was locked up for the next season and Downie was going to be heading straight to free agency. I actually thought this was one of Homer's better deals.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 12 @ 12:29 PM ET
Their lack of cap space is due to having not drafted well over the last several years and being forced to acquire players through trade or sign more highly-compensated FA. They lost picks over the last 5 years in those trades, and this has further weakened the prospect pool. It's a vicious cycle.

I think my point is validated by Hexy's statements and actions. They need to draft and develop players. It's the only way to break the cycle.

- TheGreat28



Really the only two years that they didn't have good drafts were due to the lack of picks in the 09 and 10 drafts. And that was really due to trading for Chris Pronger. There were also other moves such as trading for Prospal. And then when Pronger got injured, they went out and made some deals to help fill the hole that was left there. Again, if we want to state that the Flyers gave away part of the future, and that's why they lack prospects, I think that would be valid. But to say it's due to the cap, that's not really true. The cap hasn't prevented the Flyers from drafting and developing prospects.
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