Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Analytics, Alderson, Markov and More

Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Analytics, Alderson, Markov and More
- bmeltzer

Definitely, nobody's expecting them to make decisions solely on the numbers... just that the numbers are capable of revealing things that might not have been plain to the naked eye, or exposing problems with conventional ways of thinking about the game.

Love that they're making zone-entries a point of focus... hopefully entering the zone w/ possession is going to be emphasized, too.

Definitely, nobody's expecting them to make decisions solely on the numbers... just that the numbers are capable of revealing things that might not have been plain to the naked eye, or exposing problems with conventional ways of thinking about the game.

Love that they're making zone-entries a point of focus... hopefully entering the zone w/ possession is going to be emphasized, too.
- Tomahawk

Exactly, why ignore a tool that can help evaluate a team. Proper weight must be given to it, like all tools.

A hammer drill is a pretty good tool. But you can't use it to fix a computer. Same goes for analytics. You have to use a variety of stats and even then, nobody who is even half serious uses stats alone. The only people who seem to think stat heads don't watch games are the ones who rip stats & stats analysis.

Exactly, why ignore a tool that can help evaluate a team. Proper weight must be given to it, like all tools.

A hammer drill is a pretty good tool. But you can't use it to fix a computer. Same goes for analytics. You have to use a variety of stats and even then, nobody who is even half serious uses stats alone. The only people who seem to think stat heads don't watch games are the ones who rip stats & stats analysis.
- Jsaquella

My main problem with many of the stat heads in here is that it seems to be the end all and be all of their existence. Corsi says he sucks so he MUST suck, do not trust what your eyes tell you.

I think the stats definitely have their place. The zone entry stat is definitely one that needs to be heeded, BUT, I would also like to see that in context of where the Flyers ranked in terms of total offensive zone time. 4 zone entries in 20 seconds because the defense keeps popping the puck out is not as good as one zone entry for 45 seconds.

I guess it would help me if some of the stats heads explained to me what they consider a zone entry.

In the end I'm still going to rely on my eyes first and use the advanced stats as a supplement.

Really nice piece today, Bill -- and a great shout-out to Travis Yost, too. I won't lie and say I read his material every single day, but he's getting damn close to "must-read daily."

My main problem with many of the stat heads in here is that it seems to be the end all and be all of their existence. Corsi says he sucks so he MUST suck, do not trust what your eyes tell you.

I think the stats definitely have their place. The zone entry stat is definitely one that needs to be heeded, BUT, I would also like to see that in context of where the Flyers ranked in terms of total offensive zone time. 4 zone entries in 20 seconds because the defense keeps popping the puck out is not as good as one zone entry for 45 seconds.

I guess it would help me if some of the stats heads explained to me what they consider a zone entry.

In the end I'm still going to rely on my eyes first and use the advanced stats as a supplement.
- MBFlyerfan

How about this bold assumption..... Girouxs line accounted for over 50% of the teams zone entries. Sure feels that way. Couts line could get in but just get pinned on the boards...

In the end I'm still going to rely on my eyes first and use the advanced stats as a supplement.
- MBFlyerfan

That's all any of us can really strive to do.

How about this bold assumption..... Girouxs line accounted for over 50% of the teams zone entries. Sure feels that way. Couts line could get in but just get pinned on the boards...
- GOA88

Did they, or is it an assumption? Im confused as to what you mean.

Interesting stuff Bill, however, to be honest, I find discussing advanced stats about as much fun as watching paint dry. So, with that in mind, here is my top ten pure goal scorers in Flyers history!!

1. Tim Kerr
Good lord, if this guy could have stayed healthy, he would have likely scored over 600 goals. Lightning quick release, pinpoint accuracy and he was just about impossible to stop, at least by any legal means. It really is shame that Kerr was out with injuries during both the 85 and 87 finals, he was a guy who certainly could have made a difference

2. Reggie Leach
What, you were expecting Jay Rosehill?? They didn't call Leach the Rifle for nothing. While everyone remembers his powerful slapshot, Leach also had a deadly wrister and nasty snap shot as well. And who could ever forget his scoring of 5 goals in a playoff game against Boston, while being somewhere between drunk and hung over! His combined regular season and playoff total of 80 goals in 75-76 is still a team record and probably will be for a very long time!

3. Rick Macleish
Macleish had the best pure wrist shot in team history and was also lethal on the breakaway. While he would disappear for long stretches at times, much like Danny Briere, he seemed to save his best games for the biggest ones. His deflection of Andre Dupont's shot in game 6 of the finals vs Boston in 74 is arguably the biggest goal in Flyers history.

4. John Leclair
Not only was he as strong as a bear and as hard to move from the front of the net as an oak tree, Leclair also possessed a nasty snap shot with an extremely quick release and he also excelled at pouncing on rebounds and putting them in.

5. Eric Lindros
The big guy excelled in every facet of the game and that certainly includes goal scoring. His shot was heavy and accurate and he also had a lethal backhander as well.

6. Brian Propp
Propper had a wicked snap shot that was both heavy and accurate. He also had a very good knack of knowing when to shoot and when to pass.

7. Mark Recchi
Recchi was known more as a playmaker than a goal scorer for much of his career, but he was no slouch when it came to scoring. Recchi had a very good shot and a great nose for the net, and, for a small guy, he had absolutely no fear of working the dirty areas of the ice.

8. Bill Barber
You don't finish with 420 career goals if you don't know how to score! Barber had both a very good wrist shot and slap shot, and he excelled on getting his shots through on net when he worked the point on the powerplay.

9. Jeff Carter
Sure he had his faults when he was here, but scoring goals wasn't one of them! Carter may not of had the most accurate shot, but it was extremely heavy and he is one of the few guys in today's game that can beat a goalie with an unscreened wrist shot.

10. Jeremy Roenick
Now if JR scored goals as well as he runs his mouth, he would have scored over a 1000! That being said, he had a true nose for the net and could beat you with a variety of shots.

Just missed the cut
Danny Briere
Claude Giroux
Simon Gagne
Ilka Sinisalo

Did they, or is it an assumption? Im confused as to what you mean.
- MBFlyerfan

Its an assumption. Somewhat confident in this

My main problem with many of the stat heads in here is that it seems to be the end all and be all of their existence. Corsi says he sucks so he MUST suck, do not trust what your eyes tell you.

I think the stats definitely have their place. The zone entry stat is definitely one that needs to be heeded, BUT, I would also like to see that in context of where the Flyers ranked in terms of total offensive zone time. 4 zone entries in 20 seconds because the defense keeps popping the puck out is not as good as one zone entry for 45 seconds.

I guess it would help me if some of the stats heads explained to me what they consider a zone entry.

In the end I'm still going to rely on my eyes first and use the advanced stats as a supplement.
- MBFlyerfan

Often times when a stat is used to give weight to something, the debate in here turns from the original point into a debate on the validity of the stat, which then makes it seem like stats are seen as the end all, be all. They're not, and no serious stats advocate feels that they are the only thing that matters.

Mention somebody's possession numbers and it almost immediately brings up a debate on Corsi, rather than the trends the stats show. It's a classic strawman argument.

Exactly, why ignore a tool that can help evaluate a team. Proper weight must be given to it, like all tools.

A hammer drill is a pretty good tool. But you can't use it to fix a computer. Same goes for analytics. You have to use a variety of stats and even then, nobody who is even half serious uses stats alone. The only people who seem to think stat heads don't watch games are the ones who rip stats & stats analysis.
- Jsaquella

More importantly the right stats have to be used. I think it's pretty clear that teams aren't using all of the same stats that the fans have access to. And the the problem comes into play is when "stat heads" misuse stats and use them incorrectly. And we've seen plenty of examples of that in Flyers threads.

That's all any of us can really strive to do.
- Tomahawk

I really like what some of the stats tell us. I actually like when they seem to contradict what my eyes are telling me. It lets me view things in a different perspective, and helps me to look for things I may not have looked at before. Andy Macdonalds backing off in the defensive zone entries being one of those.

It will get me looking at what his partner is doing as well as Amac to see why he is backing off. Is the forward coming with speed? Is there another forward coming in with speed? Could he have been more aggressive because his partner had the coverage behind? Etc etc etc.

My eyes told me AMac was a pretty good player for us. His adv stats say he sucked (at least that is what I hear from those who swear by it) So at least I will be looking at some things to see how much of it is accurate.

Interesting stuff Bill, however, to be honest, I find discussing advanced stats about as much fun as watching paint dry. So, with that in mind, here is my top ten pure goal scorers in Flyers history!!

1. Tim Kerr
Good lord, if this guy could have stayed healthy, he would have likely scored over 600 goals. Lightning quick release, pinpoint accuracy and he was just about impossible to stop, at least by any legal means. It really is shame that Kerr was out with injuries during both the 85 and 87 finals, he was a guy who certainly could have made a difference

2. Reggie Leach
What, you were expecting Jay Rosehill?? They didn't call Leach the Rifle for nothing. While everyone remembers his powerful slapshot, Leach also had a deadly wrister and nasty snap shot as well. And who could ever forget his scoring of 5 goals in a playoff game against Boston, while being somewhere between drunk and hung over! His combined regular season and playoff total of 80 goals in 75-76 is still a team record and probably will be for a very long time!

3. Rick Macleish
Macleish had the best pure wrist shot in team history and was also lethal on the breakaway. While he would disappear for long stretches at times, much like Danny Briere, he seemed to save his best games for the biggest ones. His deflection of Andre Dupont's shot in game 6 of the finals vs Boston in 74 is arguably the biggest goal in Flyers history.

4. John Leclair
Not only was he as strong as a bear and as hard to move from the front of the net as an oak tree, Leclair also possessed a nasty snap shot with an extremely quick release and he also excelled at pouncing on rebounds and putting them in.

5. Eric Lindros
The big guy excelled in every facet of the game and that certainly includes goal scoring. His shot was heavy and accurate and he also had a lethal backhander as well.

6. Brian Propp
Propper had a wicked snap shot that was both heavy and accurate. He also had a very good knack of knowing when to shoot and when to pass.

7. Mark Recchi
Recchi was known more as a playmaker than a goal scorer for much of his career, but he was no slouch when it came to scoring. Recchi had a very good shot and a great nose for the net, and, for a small guy, he had absolutely no fear of working the dirty areas of the ice.

8. Bill Barber
You don't finish with 420 career goals if you don't know how to score! Barber had both a very good wrist shot and slap shot, and he excelled on getting his shots through on net when he worked the point on the powerplay.

9. Jeff Carter
Sure he had his faults when he was here, but scoring goals wasn't one of them! Carter may not of had the most accurate shot, but it was extremely heavy and he is one of the few guys in today's game that can beat a goalie with an unscreened wrist shot.

10. Jeremy Roenick
Now if JR scored goals as well as he runs his mouth, he would have scored over a 1000! That being said, he had a true nose for the net and could beat you with a variety of shots.

Just missed the cut
Danny Briere
Claude Giroux
Simon Gagne
Ilka Sinisalo
- BiggE

I would go with Gagne over Roenick and Carter ( Inaccurate wrist shot most of the time). "Gagne was one of the purest shooters I have ever played with." - Forsberg

It's a classic Stral man argument.
- Jsaquella

Really nice piece today, Bill -- and a great shout-out to Travis Yost, too. I won't lie and say I read his material every single day, but he's getting damn close to "must-read daily."
- AllInForFlyers

Yeah, he's a must read for me. He's really become a very good writer

More importantly the right stats have to be used. I think it's pretty clear that teams aren't using all of the same stats that the fans have access to. And the the problem comes into play is when "stat heads" misuse stats and use them incorrectly. And we've seen plenty of examples of that in Flyers threads.
- MJL

That would be your opinion. As you have made abundantly clear to everyone.

Jim Nill uses the same stats available to fans. He's said so in interviews. Hextall mentioned zone entries, which are available to fans. Certainly they use other numbers and tie it into video and use more in depth items than fans. Mainly because most fans have day jobs & families and lack the resources that NHL teams can employ.

That doesn't mean the available stats should be ignored. You have a bias, as you so often accuse others of, and it's tiresome.

Often times when a stat is used to give weight to something, the debate in here turns from the original point into a debate on the validity of the stat, which then makes it seem like stats are seen as the end all, be all. They're not, and no serious stats advocate feels that they are the only thing that matters.

Mention somebody's possession numbers and it almost immediately brings up a debate on Corsi, rather than the trends the stats show. It's a classic strawman argument.
- Jsaquella

I think ignoring the flaws of a stat in certain situations and misusing the stat is the classic strawman argument. Because then the flaws in a conclusion have to be faced also. If the stat used to come to a conclusion is flawed, then the conclusion is also flawed. And I think it's been pretty clear that in a number of players that conclusions have been made about, such as Gorssmann, that possession numbers have been misused and given far too much weight. A long paragraph dealing with stats such as Corsi when discussing a player, and then one sentence saying he also failed the eye test. It's pretty clear what has been given what weight. There's a reason why NHL teams have moved way past Corsi in analytics. It's because of the flaws involved with it in looking at individual players.

Jim Nill uses the same stats available to fans. He's said so in interviews. Hextall mentioned zone entries, which are available to fans. Certainly they use other numbers and tie it into video and use more in depth items than fans. Mainly because most fans have day jobs & families and lack the resources that NHL teams can employ.
- Jsaquella

Yeah, even if they don't call it Corsi/Fenwick/PDO/etc, the methodology behind their proprietary analytics is probably very similar in nature, and I can almost guarantee that a good deal of it is somewhat inspired by the fan community.

And while teams recording non-traditional stats is nothing new, the method of analyzing and employing them is, hence we've seen guys like Eric T and Dubas get hired by NHL clubs recently.

I think ignoring the flaws of a stat in certain situations and misusing the stat is the classic strawman argument. Because then the flaws in a conclusion have to be faced also. If the stat used to come to a conclusion is flawed, then the conclusion is also flawed. And I think it's been pretty clear that in a number of players that conclusions have been made about, such as Gorssmann, that possession numbers have been misused and given far too much weight. A long paragraph dealing with stats such as Corsi when discussing a player, and then one sentence saying he also failed the eye test. It's pretty clear what has been given what weight. There's a reason why NHL teams have moved way past Corsi in analytics. It's because of the flaws involved with it in looking at individual players.
- MJL

Sorry, I'm not going to debate you. It's monotonous, you have an amazing ability to argue semantics & cherry pick parts of an argument and honesty, I think it's pointless to bother.

It's why I generally ignore you, they way you generally ignore half of a post and lock onto one aspect of a discussion....and then flog it for 20 pages. I'm done playing along.

The thing that is most impressive about Jim Nill is his willingness to make big deals. He paid big prices for Tyler Seguin and now Spezza and both could have blown up in his face (Spezza could still). More and more, GM's are scared to make trades unless they are the clear winners. It is better to ride out their time making draft picks and signing 2nd tier free agents then to actual make a big hockey trade to seriously improve their team and take the chance that if it fails, they will have to defend themselves against the fans and media.

Say what you will about Holmgren and Burke, but at least they had the courage to attempt to significantly help their teams.

The thing that is most impressive about Jim Nill is his willingness to make big deals. He paid big prices for Tyler Seguin and now Spezza and both could have blown up in his face (Spezza could still). More and more, GM's are scared to make trades unless they are the clear winners. It is better to ride out their time making draft picks and signing 2nd tier free agents then to actual make a big hockey trade to seriously improve their team and take the chance that if it fails, they will have to defend themselves against the fans and media.

Say what you will about Holmgren and Burke, but at least they had the courage to attempt to significantly help their teams.
- psuhockey

Nill was seen as the heir apparent for Detroit's job. It's part of the reason Yzerman left for Tampa Bay. A lot of folks felt Nill wasn't going to leave Detroit. OB18 loved him and wanted him when the Flyers first hired Holmgren

Yeah, even if they don't call it Corsi/Fenwick/PDO/etc, the methodology behind their proprietary analytics is probably very similar in nature, and I can almost guarantee that a good deal of it is somewhat inspired by the fan community.

And while teams recording non-traditional stats is nothing new, the method of analyzing and employing them is, hence we've seen guys like Eric T and Dubas get hired by NHL clubs recently.
- Tomahawk

I'm sure it is, and the hirings of guys like Tulsky show that there is interest in the NHL for the stats that are available at places like ExtraSkater.com

Interesting stuff Bill, however, to be honest, I find discussing advanced stats about as much fun as watching paint dry. So, with that in mind, here is my top ten pure goal scorers in Flyers history!!

1. Tim Kerr
Good lord, if this guy could have stayed healthy, he would have likely scored over 600 goals. Lightning quick release, pinpoint accuracy and he was just about impossible to stop, at least by any legal means. It really is shame that Kerr was out with injuries during both the 85 and 87 finals, he was a guy who certainly could have made a difference

2. Reggie Leach
What, you were expecting Jay Rosehill?? They didn't call Leach the Rifle for nothing. While everyone remembers his powerful slapshot, Leach also had a deadly wrister and nasty snap shot as well. And who could ever forget his scoring of 5 goals in a playoff game against Boston, while being somewhere between drunk and hung over! His combined regular season and playoff total of 80 goals in 75-76 is still a team record and probably will be for a very long time!

3. Rick Macleish
Macleish had the best pure wrist shot in team history and was also lethal on the breakaway. While he would disappear for long stretches at times, much like Danny Briere, he seemed to save his best games for the biggest ones. His deflection of Andre Dupont's shot in game 6 of the finals vs Boston in 74 is arguably the biggest goal in Flyers history.

4. John Leclair
Not only was he as strong as a bear and as hard to move from the front of the net as an oak tree, Leclair also possessed a nasty snap shot with an extremely quick release and he also excelled at pouncing on rebounds and putting them in.

5. Eric Lindros
The big guy excelled in every facet of the game and that certainly includes goal scoring. His shot was heavy and accurate and he also had a lethal backhander as well.

6. Brian Propp
Propper had a wicked snap shot that was both heavy and accurate. He also had a very good knack of knowing when to shoot and when to pass.

7. Mark Recchi
Recchi was known more as a playmaker than a goal scorer for much of his career, but he was no slouch when it came to scoring. Recchi had a very good shot and a great nose for the net, and, for a small guy, he had absolutely no fear of working the dirty areas of the ice.

8. Bill Barber
You don't finish with 420 career goals if you don't know how to score! Barber had both a very good wrist shot and slap shot, and he excelled on getting his shots through on net when he worked the point on the powerplay.

9. Jeff Carter
Sure he had his faults when he was here, but scoring goals wasn't one of them! Carter may not of had the most accurate shot, but it was extremely heavy and he is one of the few guys in today's game that can beat a goalie with an unscreened wrist shot.

10. Jeremy Roenick
Now if JR scored goals as well as he runs his mouth, he would have scored over a 1000! That being said, he had a true nose for the net and could beat you with a variety of shots.

Just missed the cut
Danny Briere
Claude Giroux
Simon Gagne
Ilka Sinisalo
- BiggE

Mostly agree, with minor quibbles. I'd add Gags and drop JR, just because of team longevity. My list would go something like:

1.) Reggie the Rifle. If your nickname is "The Rifle", you get to be first.
2.) Timmy Kerr.
3.) Johnny Vermont
4.) 88
5.) Guffaw
6.) The Hawk
7.) Recchi - They even built that wrong footed wrist shot of his into video games.
8.) Barber
9.) Gagne
10.) Carter - I might need to shower after including him, but it's hard to ignore his talent.

Sorry, I'm not going to debate you. It's monotonous, you have an amazing ability to argue semantics & cherry pick parts of an argument and honesty, I think it's pointless to bother.

It's why I generally ignore you, they way you generally ignore half of a post and lock onto one aspect of a discussion....and then flog it for 20 pages. I'm done playing along.
- Jsaquella

Jesus, I am glad I have a charity golf event to work today.