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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Thursday Quick Hits
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Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Aug 8 @ 2:22 AM ET
That Cup winning Ducks team traded for Pronger and instantly became a contender to a Cup winner in one season. They'd already signed Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne a few years prior. The Ducks signed guys like Sergei Fedorov and Adam Oates to try and put them over the top. Ryan Getzlaf actually outplayed their number one center Andy McDonald during that playoff run. The Penguins also made major moves to compliment their drafted young prospects after years of tanking. Sergei Gonchar is a name that comes to mind. Both teams are still pretty good teams regardless of who they've lost or gained. Dany Heatley may help the Ducks, Christian Ehrhoff may help the Pens who remain on top of the standings each year.. With said, I don't want to tank on a whim that we might get better in three years from now.
- SuperSchennBros


The Ducks are a good example... they aren't in their current position without having undergone a significant and drawn out retooling, and they had to "waste" a few years of Getz/Perry's prime to do it.

It really wasn't that long ago that they were a team like the Flyers -- in and out of the PO's, 1st-round cannon fodder. Now they're on the upswing, built firmly on a foundation of ridiculous depth in all positions, made possibly by patient drafting and acquiring a lot of picks/prospects by jettisoning guys like Bobby Ryan, Pronger, etc.
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Aug 8 @ 7:10 AM ET
I understand that people might take offense toward increasingly esoteric descriptions of the game, but the numbers right now are about as harmless/uncomplicated/conventional as anything in the old box score.

There are certainly interpretations of the numbers that people could justifiably find unsettling, but the numbers themselves are nothing more than simple shots and numerical descriptions of how Coach X prefers to use Player X.

Save the righteous indignation for when they start coming out w/ the real crazy poop.

- Tomahawk


The zone start data and quality of competition provides some valuable context, although one NHL scout told me -- and I agree with him -- "I hate when people talk about 'sheltered' minutes and 'easy' competition, because this is the NHL. They're all good players to be here. There's no such thing as easy minutes and hasn't been for a long time."

I think part of the resistance to analytics from some of the traditionalists is how aggressive/obnoxious some of the advanced stats proponents come off. It's not all by any means, but some of most visible ones go a little overboard on the snark and negativity.

When advanced stats are presented as a tool for acquiring some measurable ways of tracking team performance, the resistance goes down a bit. It's all in how it is presented. When the message is, "this can help us all do our jobs just a little better", minds open a little. When the message is "This chart proves you and the coaching staff are incompetent and half your players don't belong in the NHL and the rest are signed to terrible contracts", there is going to be resentment.

MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Aug 8 @ 7:38 AM ET
change in philosophy for sure!

yeah, perhaps retool is better than rebuild, but you know the negative connotation that word brings. people cringe. I thought I'd get more flack for using that word than the one I did.

I see a good future with these pieces. I'm just trying to remain patient and I understand Hextall needs to get his philosophy going for a couple of seasons before it takes off.

Remaining patient is something Homer couldn't grasp, and although he made the playoffs rather consistently, after awhile I just felt like he was shooting from the hip to make a team that appeared "good enough". Not great. Good enough. Won games. Filled seats. Made Ed happy.

They almost pulled it off a few years back, but in hindsight, man that was a hell of a lucky run, y'know?

When I think of "retooling", I think of Homer. I'd prefer to leave that in the past and look forward. I think Hextall has the potential to do the job better.

- Hesh_


That may have been true of Holmgren in his early tenure as GM. He traded away the future for Pronger, and for guys like Versteeg, and used other picks at the trade deadline. And that got them to a Cup Final. But from 2010 on, I don't think it's fair to say that Holmgren couldn't grasp patience. He has developed a core of players since then and had stuck to that before moving up to Club President.
GOA88
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 08.02.2013

Aug 8 @ 7:40 AM ET
I'm not getting into another Mason is top 10 in the league conversation because I strongly disagree. Top 15, sure. Top 10, not yet.
- SuperSchennBros

Who is your top 10? Because I guarantee most of the players you name off have a nice defense to hide behind. Lundqvist for example is a great goaltender. I personally believe he is a bit overrated. He has had one of the best defenses for years. Its rare you get a clean, open shot on him and when you do..... its normally in the back of the net. He is amazing at making routine saves.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Aug 8 @ 7:43 AM ET
The zone start data and quality of competition provides some valuable context, although one NHL scout told me -- and I agree with him -- "I hate when people talk about 'sheltered' minutes and 'easy' competition, because this is the NHL. They're all good players to be here. There's no such thing as easy minutes and hasn't been for a long time."

I think part of the resistance to analytics from some of the traditionalists is how aggressive/obnoxious some of the advanced stats proponents come off. It's not all by any means, but some of most visible ones go a little overboard on the snark and negativity.

When advanced stats are presented as a tool for acquiring some measurable ways of tracking team performance, the resistance goes down a bit. It's all in how it is presented. When the message is, "this can help us all do our jobs just a little better", minds open a little. When the message is "This chart proves you and the coaching staff are incompetent and half your players don't belong in the NHL and the rest are signed to terrible contracts", there is going to be resentment.

- bmeltzer


There is a lot of that on both sides of the debate. For every Tyler Dellow, there's a Steve Simmons, Mark Spector or David Staples.

As for the sheltered and non sheltered minutes, there's a reason Sean Couturier started so many of his shifts in the defensive zone vs top competition and there's a reason that Lecavalier started so often against lesser competition I the offensive zone.

Even traditionalists would call you foolish if you matched a line of Rosehill, Lecavalier & Rinaldo against Getzlaff and Perry or Crosby & Kunitz. Sheltering or easy minutes is a comparative thing.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Aug 8 @ 7:46 AM ET
I honestly don't get the feeling that Hexy gives a (frank) about the upcoming season.

If you were hoping for a bold reload, you're probably going to continue to be disappointed. Buckle yourself in for some systematic, methodical team-building -- supplemental UFA's on low-risk 1-year contracts, very few draft picks going out the door, and a lot of developing/drafting.

When the time is right, he'll make his big Richards/Carter type of deal to get the team over the top... until then, Splash City is a thing of the past.

- Tomahawk


Lot's of assumptions here. If Hextall didn't care about the upcoming season, he wouldn't have signed Del Zotto. I think it's ludicrous to suggest that an NHL GM doesn't care about the upcoming season. I guarantee that he's extremely upset that they might potentially be losing Timonen for the upcoming season.
GOA88
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 08.02.2013

Aug 8 @ 7:53 AM ET
1. Quick
2. Lundqvist
3. Rask
4. Price
5. Rinne
6. Miller
7. Varlamov
8. Niemi
9. Mason (He has really turned his career around, every time he is in the net he gives us a chance to win. No matter how bad the defense is.)
10. Bobrovsky (Playoff choker)

Honorable mention.
Bishop (Not enough sample size)
Schneider (Never a starter)
Lehtonen
Smith
Howard
GOA88
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 08.02.2013

Aug 8 @ 7:59 AM ET
Lot's of assumptions here. If Hextall didn't care about the upcoming season, he wouldn't have signed Del Zotto. I think it's ludicrous to suggest that an NHL GM doesn't care about the upcoming season. I guarantee that he's extremely upset that they might potentially be losing Timonen for the upcoming season.
- MJL

We are still going to try and make the playoffs and do some damage. They are not packing it in.
Streit2ThePoint
Seattle Kraken
Location: it's disgusting how good you are at hockeybuzz.
Joined: 09.20.2013

Aug 8 @ 8:04 AM ET
1. Quick
2. Lundqvist
3. Rask
4. Price
5. Rinne
6. Miller
7. Varlamov
8. Niemi
9. Mason (He has really turned his career around, every time he is in the net he gives us a chance to win. No matter how bad the defense is.)
10. Bobrovsky (Playoff choker)

Honorable mention.
Bishop (Not enough sample size)
Schneider (Never a starter)
Lehtonen
Smith
Howard

- GOA88


I'd move Varlamov to a honorable mention. He had a real good season last year but that's about it. Similar to Bishop (although Bishop never really had any opportunities unlike Varlamov).
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Aug 8 @ 8:07 AM ET
We are still going to try and make the playoffs and do some damage. They are not packing it in.
- GOA88


I agree, but some think they are, and that the Flyers are in this sit back and wait mode apparently.
GOA88
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 08.02.2013

Aug 8 @ 8:07 AM ET
I'd move Varlamov to a honorable mention. He had a real good season last year but that's about it. Similar to Bishop (although Bishop never really had any opportunities unlike Varlamov).
- Streit2ThePoint

I see your stance. Varlamov did play some good hockey in Washington a couple years also. Conference finals I believe. Young goalie like Mason, had some growing pains.
GOA88
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 08.02.2013

Aug 8 @ 8:09 AM ET
I agree, but some think they are, and that the Flyers are in this sit back and wait mode apparently.
- MJL

These people think the team sucks. Sometimes the best move is to do nothing at all and let Couts, Schenn and some of the other young ones mature a little more. Schenn, Couts and Voracek are due for a breakout season. Voracek has already been good but I expect him to reach 30 goals 80+ pts here soon.
Streit2ThePoint
Seattle Kraken
Location: it's disgusting how good you are at hockeybuzz.
Joined: 09.20.2013

Aug 8 @ 8:12 AM ET
These people think the team sucks. Sometimes the best move is to do nothing at all and let Couts, Schenn and some of the other young ones mature a little more. Schenn, Couts and Voracek are due for a breakout season. Voracek has already been good but I expect him to reach 30 goals 80+ pts here soon.
- GOA88


I have to think that every NHL player wants to win the Stanley cup in their career. No matter how poopty you think your team may be, you have to put full effort in every game. And I think the Flyers are far from being a poop team. Average, maybe. But anything can happen in the playoffs....
tangent_man
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey
Joined: 11.28.2007

Aug 8 @ 8:14 AM ET
Lot's of assumptions here. If Hextall didn't care about the upcoming season, he wouldn't have signed Del Zotto. I think it's ludicrous to suggest that an NHL GM doesn't care about the upcoming season. I guarantee that he's extremely upset that they might potentially be losing Timonen for the upcoming season.
- MJL


The bit about Hextall not giving a (frank) about the upcoming season may have been a bit extreme, but the rest sounds about right.

Having Timonen's status up in the air is certainly a setback. A bunch of one-year signings and stocking the Phantoms pretty much screams 'development year' for the kids, with the possible exception being an amazing camp from a guy or two.

I doubt the message from management will be "the season doesn't matter"; the aim is still making the playoffs.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Aug 8 @ 8:15 AM ET
These people think the team sucks. Sometimes the best move is to do nothing at all and let Couts, Schenn and some of the other young ones mature a little more. Schenn, Couts and Voracek are due for a breakout season. Voracek has already been good but I expect him to reach 30 goals 80+ pts here soon.
- GOA88



I believe that Hextall is going to remain patient, and isn't going to give up the future for a win now deal. However, if a move presents itself that he feels makes the team better now and in the future, he's going to make it. He's not going to be sitting back in some wait mode until the time is right. No GM can do that because there is no guarantee that a move that is needed will present itself at that time. Nor that a similar move will present itself later if he passes it up now, because the time isn't right. It's common sense.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Aug 8 @ 8:17 AM ET
The bit about Hextall not giving a (frank) about the upcoming season may have been a bit extreme, but the rest sounds about right.

Having Timonen's status up in the air is certainly a setback. A bunch of one-year signings and stocking the Phantoms pretty much screams 'development year' for the kids, with the possible exception being an amazing camp from a guy or two.

- tangent_man


See my post above. I don't think Hextall is in a sit back and wait mode. I think he's going to be patient and make the right moves when they present themselves. And making them now, or this season, is not precluded because "it's not the right time"!
Streit2ThePoint
Seattle Kraken
Location: it's disgusting how good you are at hockeybuzz.
Joined: 09.20.2013

Aug 8 @ 8:17 AM ET
The bit about Hextall not giving a (frank) about the upcoming season may have been a bit extreme, but the rest sounds about right.

Having Timonen's status up in the air is certainly a setback. A bunch of one-year signings and stocking the Phantoms pretty much screams 'development year' for the kids, with the possible exception being an amazing camp from a guy or two.

- tangent_man


Hextall said he likes this team how it is. When the Timonen news broke out they had to fill the hole somehow without jeopardizing rushing any of the prospects. Who else could they have gotten without trading pieces of the team or picks?
rangerdanger94
New York Rangers
Location: NY
Joined: 05.23.2010

Aug 8 @ 8:18 AM ET
1. Quick
2. Lundqvist
3. Rask
4. Price
5. Rinne
6. Miller
7. Varlamov
8. Niemi
9. Mason (He has really turned his career around, every time he is in the net he gives us a chance to win. No matter how bad the defense is.)
10. Bobrovsky (Playoff choker)

Honorable mention.
Bishop (Not enough sample size)
Schneider (Never a starter)
Lehtonen
Smith
Howard

- GOA88

How you have bob behind mason when bob has won a vezina and mason hasnt done poop in the playoffs either is mindboggling. Bishop and schneider are ahead of mason too. Never a starter and not enough sample size? Mason had 1 decent rookie season and then was ass for half a decade before another decent season.

I would also take lehtonen and smith and luongo and halak over mason because of their consistency. A healthy cam ward and regular season fleury too.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Aug 8 @ 8:20 AM ET
The bit about Hextall not giving a (frank) about the upcoming season may have been a bit extreme, but the rest sounds about right.

Having Timonen's status up in the air is certainly a setback. A bunch of one-year signings and stocking the Phantoms pretty much screams 'development year' for the kids, with the possible exception being an amazing camp from a guy or two.

- tangent_man


Agreed. I think the context is overstated. I think that Hextall realizes that the team is a second tier contender, at best, and he's not going to follow the Holmgren thought process of adding pieces to the mix at the expense of draft picks to give them slightly better short term odds.

Doesn't mean he's giving up on the season, but he may well decide that dealing 2nd rounders for guys like MacDonald, Grossmann or especially lesser guys like Kubina, is not for him and in that regard, is not dealing the future in an effort to win 3 playoff games instead of 2.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Aug 8 @ 8:23 AM ET
I honestly don't get the feeling that Hexy gives a (frank) about the upcoming season.

If you were hoping for a bold reload, you're probably going to continue to be disappointed. Buckle yourself in for some systematic, methodical team-building -- supplemental UFA's on low-risk 1-year contracts, very few draft picks going out the door, and a lot of developing/drafting.

When the time is right, he'll make his big Richards/Carter type of deal to get the team over the top... until then, Splash City is a thing of the past.

- Tomahawk


Thank god. This is hockey, not a pool party.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Aug 8 @ 8:23 AM ET
How you have bob behind mason when bob has won a vezina and mason hasnt done poop in the playoffs either is mindboggling. Bishop and schneider are ahead of mason too. Never a starter and not enough sample size? Mason had 1 decent rookie season and then was ass for half a decade before another decent season.

I would also take lehtonen and smith and luongo and halak over mason because of their consistency. A healthy cam ward and regular season fleury too.

- rangerdanger94


I'd have Bob ahead of Mason as well, but Bob's playoff play definitely hasn't come close to matching his regular season work. 2-6, .890 save%, 3.50 GAA.
tangent_man
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey
Joined: 11.28.2007

Aug 8 @ 8:24 AM ET
Hextall said he likes this team how it is. When the Timonen news broke out they had to fill the hole somehow without jeopardizing rushing any of the prospects. Who else could they have gotten without trading pieces of the team or picks?
- Streit2ThePoint


A one year FA deal was the way to go, especially with a guy like MDZ who has something to prove.

I want to see Hexy stay patient and bring the team along at their natural pace. And to those that see this plan as wasting G's prime years, all I can say is (and I absolutely hate the phrase), "it is what it is."
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Aug 8 @ 8:24 AM ET
Jmatchett is always serious
- PhillySportsGuy

BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Aug 8 @ 8:26 AM ET
jeeeeezus, is it october yet?
- hammarby31


Not. Soon. Enough.
tangent_man
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey
Joined: 11.28.2007

Aug 8 @ 8:27 AM ET
Agreed. I think the context is overstated. I think that Hextall realizes that the team is a second tier contender, at best, and he's not going to follow the Holmgren thought process of adding pieces to the mix at the expense of draft picks to give them slightly better short term odds.

Doesn't mean he's giving up on the season, but he may well decide that dealing 2nd rounders for guys like MacDonald, Grossmann or especially lesser guys like Kubina, is not for him and in that regard, is not dealing the future in an effort to win 3 playoff games instead of 2.

- Jsaquella


Bingo.
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