I like Bobby Ryan as a hockey player but everyone needs to get realistic in terms of his long term value. Forwards, especially goal scorers, hit peak performance in the 24 to 27 age range. But, once the peak has been hit they will experience a steady and often dramatic decline in output. Ryan's numbers when considered in relation to goals scored/games played suggests he has already topped out and is undergoing a fairly significant decline phase.

07/08 .217
08/09 .484
09/10 .432
10/11 .414
11/12 .378
12/13 .239
13/14 .328

If you compare Ryan (goals to games played) to other top Ottawa scorers over their careers you can see there is some cause for concern. Heatley peaked out at age 25 in 05/06 with a .609 goals to games ratio. Hossa had his best year at age 24 with a .562 ratio.

Alfredsson along with a few other guys (Marty St. Louis) may be exceptional. He started his NHL career late (age 23) and did not hit peak performance until age 30 (.653). But, let's be honest Ryan is not in the class of these players.

I like Bobby Ryan as a hockey player but everyone needs to get realistic in terms of his long term value. Forwards, especially goal scorers, hit peak performance in the 24 to 27 age range. But, once the peak has been hit they will experience a steady and often dramatic decline in output. Ryan's numbers when considered in relation to goals scored/games played suggests he has already topped out and is undergoing a fairly significant decline phase.

07/08 .217
08/09 .484
09/10 .432
10/11 .414
11/12 .378
12/13 .239
13/14 .328

If you compare Ryan (goals to games played) to other top Ottawa scorers over their careers you can see there is some cause for concern. Heatley peaked out at age 25 in 05/06 with a .609 goals to games ratio. Hossa had his best year at age 24 with a .562 ratio.

Alfredsson along with a few other guys (Marty St. Louis) may be exceptional. He started his NHL career late (age 23) and did not hit peak performance until age 30 (.653). But, let's be honest Ryan is not in the class of these players.
- spatso

Last summer when the Sens lost Alfie, they imediatly traded for Bobby Ryan knowing full well they'd have to extend him to big $$$ & term.

You cant make a playoff contender by letting valuably assets walk or trade them when they hit UFA. young prospects will only keep you so competitive.

Last summer when the Sens lost Alfie, they imediatly traded for Bobby Ryan knowing full well they'd have to extend him to big $$$ & term.

You cant make a playoff contender by letting valuably assets walk or trade them when they hit UFA. young prospects will only keep you so competitive.
- Erik6Karlsson5

This is the big thing for me. Murray knows better than anyone the poor financial situation on this team. Don't see him making the trade without being willing to pony up.

Now, Ryan may leave for some of the other reasons other people mention, i. e. philly connection.

Real good summary.

Agree with most of your conclusions. Even though I regret Alfredsson going to Detroit, it was time for Ottawa to move on. Feel the same about Spezza and over the next season we will probably see the departure of Phillips and Neil.

Player retention of key assets will be critical. But, I fear the bigger mistake between resigning Bobby Ryan or losing Bobby Ryan will be resigning him to a big dollar contract of $8m over a long term of 8 years.

I would rather see the Sens flip Ryan and use the proceeds from that deal and other considerations to acquire Evander Kane. Kane is a far more attractive asset at his age for 5 years at $5.25 m than Ryan at 8years for $8m.

I think we are going to see the full emergence of a young and highly talented Senators team this fall. We will know in the first month of the season but I expect this team to comfortably make the playoffs. I believe they will come close to their target and cut 40 goals against. Very exciting.
- spatso

Yawn, how many times have you mentioned trading Ryan and picking up Kane? Kane at the moment is a team cancer and anyone trying to acquire him should not give up anything of relevance to acquire him. Sure he has tons of potential but he actually hasn't done a ton in his career. The Sens don't need to lose another trade. If they did decide to go for a guy like Kane it's pretty risky. Do you think he'd thrive in that dressing room?

If I were to make an offer for him it would be Dal 2nd, Ott 2nd 2016, Stone and Gryba. Really he's a guy with way too much risk and not worth parting with one of Lehner, Lazar, 2015 1st and I'd not even want to give up Cowen or Weircioch for him. Although if Bogosian or Buff were in the mix my offer would change significantly.

Yawn, how many times have you mentioned trading Ryan and picking up Kane? Kane at the moment is a team cancer and anyone trying to acquire him should not give up anything of relevance to acquire him. Sure he has tons of potential but he actually hasn't done a ton in his career. The Sens don't need to lose another trade. If they did decide to go for a guy like Kane it's pretty risky. Do you think he'd thrive in that dressing room?

If I were to make an offer for him it would be Dal 2nd, Ott 2nd 2016, Stone and Gryba. Really he's a guy with way too much risk and not worth parting with one of Lehner, Lazar, 2015 1st and I'd not even want to give up Cowen or Weircioch for him. Although if Bogosian or Buff were in the mix my offer would change significantly.
- riceroni

I really like Kane. Last year at this time I was thinking he was another Turris in the sense of a bad fit with a dogmatic coach. But, some doubts came into my mind at the end of last season when Paul Maurice made him a healthy scratch. Maurice is a pretty cool guy and it takes a lot to get him agitated.

I would include Lehner in a deal for Kane (has more to do with my not being sold on Lehner's game). Despite what I may have said in the past, I don't think I could pull the trigger and include Lazar. I would not hesitate to deal Ryan for Kane straight up.

I don't see Ryan getting $8M. The team(s) that will pay that much won't be teams he'll want to go to.

$7M on the open market is a safe bet. Which means that 7.5 on a 8 year deal is likely. Therefore the gap between what he gets here in ottawa (if Sens give top value) isn't much less than what he'll get on the open market.

8 years @ 7.25 = $ 58M
8 years @ 7.75 = $62M

$4M over 8 years doesn't mean a lot when your talking re-locating, moving, all that. I think if he goes it's because he has his eye on going back to the states; and it's likely closer to home. I'm sure the Sens know they can't F**k up next summer with Alfie, Spezza two summers in a row
- AlfieisKing

Philly would give it to him...
.