Very few advanced stats advocates believe teams should eliminate scouts and allow Nate Silver to run the franchise.

Also, looking at an individual players corsi without taking into account zone starts, QoT and QoC is just as bad as looking at plus/minus. These other things allow you to see how a coach views certain players and how much he trusts them.

Absolutely. Look at butterfly goalies. After Roy, teams were grabbing every QMJHL goalie who came out and had half decent potential.

The key is not to overload on on type of player. You need a mix. If you have 5 Nick Grossmanns or 5 Erik Gustafssons on defense, you're going to have issues.
- Jsaquella

Agreed. Gotta find the right blend, or pieces that compliment one another. I'm really hoping the Flyers are, with the core and the prospects waiting in the pipeline, well on their way down that road.

Very few advanced stats advocates believe teams should eliminate scouts and allow Nate Silver to run the franchise.

Also, looking at an individual players corsi without taking into account zone starts, QoT and QoC is just as bad as looking at plus/minus. These other things allow you to see how a coach views certain players and how much he trusts them.
- PhillySportsGuy

I'd give Nate Silver a season or two at a management level for the Flyers. You know he'd almost certainly find unique ways of looking at data others haven't thought of yet. But scouts can never be replaced. Except by cyborgs in the very near future, but that goes without saying.

Agreed. Gotta find the right blend, or pieces that compliment one another. I'm really hoping the Flyers are, with the core and the prospects waiting in the pipeline, well on their way down that road.
- wolfhounds

The saving grace of the defense this year is that they have the ability to do pairs where the attributes of one guy compliment his potential partner to some degree. There's no worry about a Meszaros-Grossmann/Schenn pair, where there's two guys who are below average in terms of speed & mobility.

If Del Zotto can recapture his early success, it'd help the Flyers a lot.

The saving grace of the defense this year is that they have the ability to do pairs where the attributes of one guy compliment his potential partner to some degree. There's no worry about a Meszaros-Grossmann/Schenn pair, where there's two guys who are below average in terms of speed & mobility.

If Del Zotto can recapture his early success, it'd help the Flyers a lot.
- Jsaquella

I'll drink to that! Cheers everybody!

You know, If I have a patient come in and we get blood work. I have to scan over the lab results and take a peek at what might be going on. I despise it, and would much rather just go by my physical assessment.

However I do understand the value in such things.

Same with stats for me. They aren't what I get off on, but I can appreciate the value and that of those who actually understand them.

Different strokes for different folks.

Great article!

People forget that Randy Carlyle kept warning anyone who would listen last year that the Leafs were going to be in trouble if they kept playing a wide open style and not taking care of their own end.

I loved the explanation coming out of the Jim Nill interview that analytics (not unlike video) helps to explain, especially to the young guys what is going right or wrong. A measure like Corsi does not determine performance, it is merely an indicator (a pointer) at likely performance.

But we cannot forget the most important measure of team performance is goal differential. So, if you look at shots on goal, plus/minus, Corsi or Fenwick they all essentially have the same purpose and same flaws. But, they will not tell you why Jason Spezza was minus 26 and Kyle Turris was plus 23 playing on the same team, same players and same goalie. They also have have similar Corsi profiles (I believe Spezza actually has a more positive Corsi profile). Most scouts have no difficulty explaining exactly the reasons for the difference.

Conversely, recent Edmonton Oilers hire Tyler Dellow -- while undeniably ground-breaking in some of the ways he applied metrics -- took a much harsher, caustic and negative approach. His framework was one of saying "you are incompetent at your jobs and I am smarter than you are."

Using that approach gained him notoriety and worked well as an outsider but also made a lot of enemies who want to see him fail now that he's got an opportunity to actually work for an NHL team. He is now faced with a challenge of not only being good at what he does but also convincing others to get on the same page.

Wrote one longtime pro scout by email, "You have to give respect to get respect. [Dellow] is going to learn that real quick. He's got an uphill battle coming in to prove himself."

I agree and said on the day he got hired that there will likely be some contentious meetings involving Dellow unless he changes his approach.

The fact is, his approach masks the fact that he's a pretty smart dude. But it doesn't matter how smart you are if no one wants to work with you because you can't help yourself but to alienate everyone who doesn't agree with you.

The saving grace of the defense this year is that they have the ability to do pairs where the attributes of one guy compliment his potential partner to some degree. There's no worry about a Meszaros-Grossmann/Schenn pair, where there's two guys who are below average in terms of speed & mobility.

If Del Zotto can recapture his early success, it'd help the Flyers a lot.
- Jsaquella

Its essentially now or never for him. He has been given a chance with New York and Nashville, both teams who aren't too shabby on developing D-men.

If he blows it here, I don't see him in the NHL after this year. I'd personally like to see him with Grossmann long term. He wasn't too great last year but I see the veteran and stability quality helpful for MDZ.

Its essentially now or never for him. He has been given a chance with New York and Nashville, both teams who aren't too shabby on developing D-men.

If he blows it here, I don't see him in the NHL after this year. I'd personally like to see him with Grossmann long term. He wasn't too great last year but I see the veteran and stability quality helpful for MDZ.
- flyer_nutter

I'd have him with either Grossmann or Coburn. I think he and Coburn could be an effective pair.

I'd have him with either Grossmann or Coburn. I think he and Coburn could be an effective pair.
- Jsaquella

The problem with putting him with Coburn is he is now on your top pair. I would love if that happened but am not holding my breath. I see to start the season:

Streit/Coburn
AMAC/Schenn
Grossman/MDZ

1PP Streit or MDZ + a forward
2PP AMAC/MDZ or Streit dependent on above

1PK Coburn/Grossman
2PK AMAC/Schenn

Of course a lot can still change from now and the first puck drop of the regular season.

The problem with putting him with Coburn is he is now on your top pair. I would love if that happened but am not holding my breath. I see to start the season:

Streit/Coburn
AMAC/Schenn
Grossman/MDZ

1PP Streit or MDZ + a forward
2PP AMAC/MDZ or Streit dependent on above

1PK Coburn/Grossman
2PK AMAC/Schenn

Of course a lot can still change from now and the first puck drop of the regular season.
- coffee junkie

True, but if he can return to the form he had in his first few seasons, he was a 22 minute a night guy for a playoff team, while scoring 41 points.

Big if, but at the same time not an impossibility.

True, but if he can return to the form he had in his first few seasons, he was a 22 minute a night guy for a playoff team, while scoring 41 points.

Big if, but at the same time not an impossibility.
- Jsaquella

True for sure.

For all their knocks, I only see a handful of teams that are truly better in the East. They should be able to at the very least compete with the rest of the conference, and have a chance at winning games.

Sometimes I get the feeling that these advanced stats is just another way of over thinking things.

True for sure.

For all their knocks, I only see a handful of teams that are truly better in the East. They should be able to at the very least compete with the rest of the conference, and have a chance at winning games.
- flyer_nutter

They should be in the mix. I do think they will miss Timonen, but they should still be in the fight for a playoff spot. Not saying that they're a lock to get in, but I also don't agree with those who feel they are a bottom ten team, either.

The problem with putting him with Coburn is he is now on your top pair. I would love if that happened but am not holding my breath. I see to start the season:

Streit/Coburn
AMAC/Schenn
Grossman/MDZ

1PP Streit or MDZ + a forward
2PP AMAC/MDZ or Streit dependent on above

1PK Coburn/Grossman
2PK AMAC/Schenn

Of course a lot can still change from now and the first puck drop of the regular season.
- coffee junkie

First PP D man almost doesnt even matter. They are just there to cycle the puck with G who is trying to get Jake open. G is the real QB of that unit.

Our PP has become incredibly predicable btw. I'm surprised it still works.

Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Traditional and Adaptation
- bmeltzer

The debate will rage on

First PP D man almost doesnt even matter. They are just there to cycle the puck with G who is trying to get Jake open. G is the real QB of that unit.

Our PP has become incredibly predicable btw. I'm surprised it still works.
- hereticpride

Do hope they change it up a little this year, because it was as you say predictable. The Rangers in particular swarmed Giroux, because they knew everything went through him.

It was only in the later games of that series that they started to use the other side of the ice more, in particular with Jake. Think you see a bit more of that as the season rolls along.

Im curious to see what happens with the second unit. MDZ could be useful in bringing the puck up the ice because they had a hard time entering the zone.

Do hope they change it up a little this year, because it was as you say predictable. The Rangers in particular swarmed Giroux, because they knew everything went through him.

It was only in the later games of that series that they started to use the other side of the ice more, in particular with Jake. Think you see a bit more of that as the season rolls along.

Im curious to see what happens with the second unit. MDZ could be useful in bringing the puck up the ice because they had a hard time entering the zone.
- flyer_nutter

The thing is, even against the Rangers, the Flyers PP was clicking, tied with Tampa as the highest % in the NHL during the playoffs at 28.6 %

The issue remains at ES play. That's where NY dominated the Flyers. The Flyers need to do a better job of controlling play at ES, and not just vs NY. Against everyone.

Very few advanced stats advocates believe teams should eliminate scouts and allow Nate Silver to run the franchise.

Also, looking at an individual players corsi without taking into account zone starts, QoT and QoC is just as bad as looking at plus/minus. These other things allow you to see how a coach views certain players and how much he trusts them.
- PhillySportsGuy

It's also critically important to remember than Corsi/Fenwick only measure "possession", and that puck possession is only a fraction of the winning equation:

- 33% is special teams & goaltending,
- 33% blind luck, shooting luck, puck luck and any advantage gained from "intangibles",
- 33% puck possession

It's very hard to control the first two... goaltending and shooting %'s are notoriously prone to variance from game to game, season to season. Luck is even harder to replicate... sometimes you get the bounces, sometimes you don't.

The only statistically repeatable part of the equation is puck possession, and that's why people harp on those stats so much. You can control how good your team is at managing the puck, through players or tactics.

Being terrific with the puck at ES creates a strong margin in your favor. Being bad... well, that's the Flyers... you'd better hope your goaltender and special teams are always clicking.

Conversely, recent Edmonton Oilers hire Tyler Dellow -- while undeniably ground-breaking in some of the ways he applied metrics -- took a much harsher, caustic and negative approach. His framework was one of saying "you are incompetent at your jobs and I am smarter than you are."

Using that approach gained him notoriety and worked well as an outsider but also made a lot of enemies who want to see him fail now that he's got an opportunity to actually work for an NHL team. He is now faced with a challenge of not only being good at what he does but also convincing others to get on the same page.
- bmeltzer

I doubt Dellow's professional conduct is the same as his blogging/tweeting persona... the guy was a lawyer working in a firm 9 to 5. I'm sure he understands that it's a different ball of wax and he'll have to comport himself in a certain fashion to fit into the culture.

As for the "enemies"... yikes.

- Winning

BOB RYAB FIST

BOB RYAB FIST
- Jsaquella

While I was posting here quite a bit when this happened I totally missed the post that spawned the Bob Ryab fist meme. Who do we have to thank for that?

While I was posting here quite a bit when this happened I totally missed the post that spawned the Bob Ryab fist meme. Who do we have to thank for that?
- hereticpride

Eklund I believe posted Bob Ryab sweepstakes & the subsequent celebration of his typo became lore