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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Pachla: Sabres coach Ted Nolan throws some cold water on analytics
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sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Sep 23 @ 12:10 PM ET
Ryan Miller faced 35 shots per game
Jonas Enroth faced 29 per game

despite the worst team in the NHL leaving him out to dry for 6 more shots per game than their backup, Miller was still able to win games.
Buffalo-Sabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I lost a bet, NY
Joined: 07.05.2007

Sep 23 @ 12:20 PM ET
James Tanners article is must read.
yen6d1
Buffalo Sabres
Location: maxim Afinogenov, NY
Joined: 02.21.2011

Sep 23 @ 12:29 PM ET
Ryan Miller faced 35 shots per game
Jonas Enroth faced 29 per game

despite the worst team in the NHL leaving him out to dry for 6 more shots per game than their backup, Miller was still able to win games.

- sbroads24


forget the stats, you need a win you take miller over enroth 10 out of 10 times
jochfr
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Nashville , TN
Joined: 07.11.2009

Sep 23 @ 12:31 PM ET
forget the stats, you need a win you take miller over enroth 10 out of 10 times
- yen6d1

Did either goalie really win last year...?
gerbe75pts
Anaheim Ducks
Location: DRAFT COLE CAUFIELD AT 7!!!, CA
Joined: 09.03.2009

Sep 23 @ 12:35 PM ET
LET THE TANKING BEGIN !!!!



sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Sep 23 @ 12:47 PM ET
forget the stats, you need a win you take miller over enroth 10 out of 10 times
- yen6d1

Enroth being better than Miller last year is ridiculous. Miller was fantastic here last year, Enroth couldn't hold his glove
cabin
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We need a You're an Ass button, NY
Joined: 09.07.2006

Sep 23 @ 12:49 PM ET
Enroth being better than Miller last year is ridiculous. Miller was fantastic here last year, Enroth couldn't hold his glove
- sbroads24

You seem to have a different meaning of the word fantastic than I do.
15-22-3 ? and 10-8-1 on the Blues
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Sep 23 @ 12:51 PM ET
You seem to have a different meaning of the word fantastic than I do.
15-22-3 ?

- cabin

He accounted for almost 75% of our wins, despite playing only 50 % of the games
Slump Buster
Buffalo Sabres
Location: GM's are graded based on moves made before June 28th, apparently., NY
Joined: 10.24.2006

Sep 23 @ 12:52 PM ET
James Tanners article is must read.
- Buffalo-Sabres


Holy S, that was was billiant. He is dead on when he talks about how you should never trust your eyes and how confirmation bias plays a significant role in forming opinions.

In a way it very much reminds me of the Wade Phillips headset controversy. Why wouldn't you want every piece of information (data, scouting opinions, etc) available to you? Sure, you may choose to go with your gut at times but at least you know what the odds are. Some have pointed out that this is a bigger deal for the GM than the couch but there are scores of points in the game (zone starts, for example) where stats can give a picture.
stashu
Buffalo Sabres
Location: SC
Joined: 06.04.2008

Sep 23 @ 12:56 PM ET
Holy S, that was was billiant. He is dead on when he talks about how you should never trust your eyes and how confirmation bias plays a significant role in forming opinions.

In a way it very much reminds me of the Wade Phillips headset controversy. Why wouldn't you want every piece of information (data, scouting opinions, etc) available to you? Sure, you may choose to go with your gut at times but at least you know what the odds are. Some have pointed out that this is a bigger deal for the GM than the couch but there are scores of points in the game (zone starts, for example) where stats can give a picture.

- Slump Buster


But...but....people always say "Do you even watch the games!??!"
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Sep 23 @ 12:56 PM ET
Holy S, that was was billiant. He is dead on when he talks about how you should never trust your eyes and how confirmation bias plays a significant role in forming opinions.

In a way it very much reminds me of the Wade Phillips headset controversy. Why wouldn't you want every piece of information (data, scouting opinions, etc) available to you? Sure, you may choose to go with your gut at times but at least you know what the odds are. Some have pointed out that this is a bigger deal for the GM than the couch but there are scores of points in the game (zone starts, for example) where stats can give a picture.

- Slump Buster

I disagree. And that's not what Nolan's overall point was anyway.

His point was that there are certain things that exist that stats won't indicate. Get him a Sidney Crosby/Anze Kopitar and our possession numbers will get better. It doesn't have to be broken down any further
Buffalo-Sabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I lost a bet, NY
Joined: 07.05.2007

Sep 23 @ 1:12 PM ET
Holy S, that was was billiant. He is dead on when he talks about how you should never trust your eyes and how confirmation bias plays a significant role in forming opinions.

In a way it very much reminds me of the Wade Phillips headset controversy. Why wouldn't you want every piece of information (data, scouting opinions, etc) available to you? Sure, you may choose to go with your gut at times but at least you know what the odds are. Some have pointed out that this is a bigger deal for the GM than the couch but there are scores of points in the game (zone starts, for example) where stats can give a picture.

- Slump Buster



If you win it all, no one will question poop. People will view your quirks as intangibles. As soon as you lose, people will jump all over obvious things like Wade not wearing a headset. Fans have such little control over thier favorite teams decisions, they want to beleive the people in power use every tool they can to be the best they can.
Buffalo-Sabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I lost a bet, NY
Joined: 07.05.2007

Sep 23 @ 1:19 PM ET
My wife had minor surgery and I've been in the waiting room for 2.5 hours. It makes you realize how slow to come to conclusions people are by thier conversations. It's like being in a waiting room of WGR callers.
Michael Pachla
Buffalo Sabres
Location: solid!!!
Joined: 09.05.2007

Sep 23 @ 1:22 PM ET
Using the wrong metric.

EVSV% 2013-14

Enroth .929%

Miller .920%

Shorthanded save percentages wildly fluctuate year to year, they aren't reliable.

Goalie records are more reflective of team, not individual performance.

- Ryan_Wilson


here's another metric: enroth=one goal over his shoulder while standing up
Michael Pachla
Buffalo Sabres
Location: solid!!!
Joined: 09.05.2007

Sep 23 @ 1:26 PM ET
Relax. Pachla I do think you do a good job, and I can see that you spend a lot of time putting the work in. I am just bored and in a bad mood so I am trying to stir the pot. I thank you for taking the time to do these blogs and I do respect your opinion. It is just more fun for me if I pretend I don't. Keep up the good work. To say that you are a huge upgrade to Garth is the understatement of the year. Thank you for dong what you do Pachla. I would rather criticize you than anyone else.
- SabresPanacea


well played, son...don't change
cabin
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We need a You're an Ass button, NY
Joined: 09.07.2006

Sep 23 @ 1:37 PM ET
My wife had minor surgery and I've been in the waiting room for 2.5 hours. It makes you realize how slow to come to conclusions people are by thier conversations. It's like being in a waiting room of WGR callers.
- Buffalo-Sabres


Dr. hamilton and Nurse Bulldog ?
Slump Buster
Buffalo Sabres
Location: GM's are graded based on moves made before June 28th, apparently., NY
Joined: 10.24.2006

Sep 23 @ 1:44 PM ET
I disagree. And that's not what Nolan's overall point was anyway.

His point was that there are certain things that exist that stats won't indicate. Get him a Sidney Crosby/Anze Kopitar and our possession numbers will get better. It doesn't have to be broken down any further

- sbroads24


Those kinds of statements completely miss the point and are really ducking the question. Also, the statement "there are certain things that exist that stats won't indicate" implies that 1) the eyeball test gives you all you need to know and that 2) if the stats don't tell you all you need to know then they should be summarily ignored.

Sure, if I have Kopitar I don't need to worry about that stuff. First, how do you identify the next Kopitar? Ten guys were chosen ahead of him. Second, there would be 19 other guys on the team. Wouldn't you want to know as much about what make them successful as you could possibly know?
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Sep 23 @ 1:46 PM ET
Those kinds of statements completely miss the point and are really ducking the question. Also, the statement "there are certain things that exist that stats won't indicate" implies that 1) the eyeball test gives you all you need to know and that 2) if the stats don't tell you all you need to know then they should be summarily ignored.

Sure, if I have Kopitar I don't need to worry about that stuff. First, how do you identify the next Kopitar? Ten guys were chosen ahead of him. Second, there would be 19 other guys on the team. Wouldn't you want to know as much about what make them successful as you could possibly know?

- Slump Buster

He didn't dismiss them in anyway. Again this is the coach, not the person building the team. It's Murray's job to identify and get the next Kopitar
Slump Buster
Buffalo Sabres
Location: GM's are graded based on moves made before June 28th, apparently., NY
Joined: 10.24.2006

Sep 23 @ 1:53 PM ET
He didn't dismiss them in anyway. Again this is the coach, not the person building the team. It's Murray's job to identify and get the next Kopitar
- sbroads24


He didn't dismiss them? How much more clearly could he have dismissed them? And as I said earlier, there are scores of in-game situations that can give him information. The stuff about the human element is garbage.
Stripes77
Referee
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Where ever Matt Ellis allows me to be, NY
Joined: 07.30.2012

Sep 23 @ 1:59 PM ET
He didn't dismiss them? How much more clearly could he have dismissed them? And as I said earlier, there are scores of in-game situations that can give him information. The stuff about the human element is garbage.
- Slump Buster


This is a game played between humans, officiated by humans, watched by humans, and coached by humans. There is not a mathematical formula in the world that can tell you what team will win every game. That is the human side. Sure you can figure out the odds but the only thing that is 100% correct 100% all the time is what Nolan said. If you score 1 more goal than your opponent you will win.

Emotions are a big part of the game and because you can't put a number behind it you are quick to dismiss it.
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Sep 23 @ 2:07 PM ET
He didn't dismiss them? How much more clearly could he have dismissed them? And as I said earlier, there are scores of in-game situations that can give him information. The stuff about the human element is garbage.
- Slump Buster

On the flip side there are in game situations that can't be measured.

Justin Williams is one of the better clutch goal scorers in the league. That's just a fact. Now should Sutter dismiss this "human element" to the game when deciding what 6 players to put on the ice when they are down by a goal?

I would like to see other coaches interviews on the same topic, and see how different Nolan is to all of them
Stripes77
Referee
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Where ever Matt Ellis allows me to be, NY
Joined: 07.30.2012

Sep 23 @ 2:10 PM ET
On the flip side there are in game situations that can't be measured.

Justin Williams is one of the better clutch goal scorers in the league. That's just a fact. Now should Sutter dismiss this "human element" to the game when deciding what 6 players to put on the ice when they are down by a goal?

I would like to see other coaches interviews on the same topic, and see how different Nolan is to all of them

- sbroads24


That's why there is a human behind the bench and not a computer
HonkFortheGoose
Buffalo Sabres
Location: "___________ stinks."-Sabres89, NY
Joined: 07.26.2008

Sep 23 @ 2:10 PM ET
He accounted for almost 75% of our wins, despite playing only 50 % of the games
- sbroads24


Considering how many goalies played here after he got traded, that's not really a fair stat to go off of. Plus, it's not hard to get 50% of the wins, when there were so few last year.

sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Sep 23 @ 2:16 PM ET
Considering how many goalies played here after he got traded, that's not really a fair stat to go off of. Plus, it's not hard to get 50% of the wins, when there were so few last year.
- HonkFortheGoose

He got 75% (roughly) of this teams wins and essentially played half the season. While facing more shots. He played really, really well last year
dadeadhead
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I don't want to say Greztky was a dude when I was watching. Mentalorgasm5 , NY
Joined: 07.16.2006

Sep 23 @ 2:21 PM ET
Anyone interested in Fridays game against the Leafs and Wednesday's game against the Caps.

2 tickets for each
$40 bucks for both games.
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